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Production functions Scenarios Δ Ecosystem structure Δ Ecosystem function Δ Ecosystem service Δ Ecosystem service value Δ health outcomes Production function Habitat restoration decision Area of biogenic habitat Wave and storm surge attenuation Erosion and flooding near property Damage Storm costs injuries People Diarrheal disease affected Lesson: not about the money Eastern Arcs, Tanzania Cauca Valley, Colombia Annual Water Yield (mm/yr) Legend wyield_no Value High : 1004.07 Low : 164.16 Charcoal Harvest (index) Central Sumatra, Indonesia Baoxing, China Vancouver Island, BC 1 Additional InVEST outputs ECOSYSTEM SERVICES VALUATION e.g. HEALTH OUTCOME Carbon Sequestered Value of carbon sequestered Weather deaths, nutrition Energy Captured Value of captured wave energy ?? Value of avoided damages Storm deaths, disease Recreation Visitation Rates Expenditures due to recreation activity Fitness, mental health Fishery Landed Biomass Net present Nutrition, food value of security, child finfish and mortality Carbon Wave Energy Coastal Protection Aquaculture Avoided Area Flooded/Eroded Harvested Biomass shellfish Infection rate Example: Lyme disease ~ mammal diversity Ostfeld & LoGiudice. 2003. Ecology Examples: Nutrition from wildlife Golden C D et al. PNAS 2011;108:19653-19656 Not new to NatCap • Gretchen: Sam Myers connection forever • Define well-being broadly • Research frontier – strategic plan • WIG Two new initiatives • HEAL – broad NGO+University consortium • Keck Futures Initiative – working group • Part of UVM startup • Good time to discuss: – Ideas, interest, ongoing work, what’s really needed? HEALTH & ECOSYSTEMS: ANALYSIS OF LINKAGES Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Cambodian Ministry of Agriculture,National University of Laos Forestry & Fisheries, Fisheries Administration Basic design Greatly Modified Somewhat Modified Relatively Unmodified HEAL components • Specific studies: – – – – – Wildlife access -> Nutritional health (S. Myers) Forest fires -> respiratory disease (D. Jacob) MPAs -> local food security (H. Fox) Deforestation -> Malaria incidence (J. Patz) Flooding -> diarrheal disease (S. Jupiter) • Cross-cutting: – Production function modeling – InVEST (T. Ricketts) – Roll up lessons (all) Case #1: wildlife and nutrition The rough plan • Quantify relationship between access to wildlife (marine, freshwater, terrestrial) and nutritional status of communities. • Gradients of access to wildlife populations • Measure protein intake, micronutrients, burden of disease Case #2: Fires and respiratory disease Utah Hospital Admissions, Children 0-17 Year Steel plant closed for one year (86/87) due to labor dispute Pope, Am J Public Health 1989; 79:623 The rough plan 1. Evaluate effects of fires on surface air quality and human health in downwind population centers. 2. Estimate health impacts of different land management scenarios Emissions ~ fires, landcover Transport, dilution, chemistry Exposure, disease incidence diagram!below).!!First,!extending!ecosystem!service!models!“to!the!right”!(top!black! arrow).!!These!models!(e.g.,!InVEST)!currently!relate!changes!in!ecosystems!to! changes!in!services,!but!need!to!be!extended!to!report!health!outcomes!too.!!Second,! extending!health!models!from!epidemiology!or!public!health!“to!the!left”!(bottom! black!arrow).!!These!models!currently!relate!changes!in!vectors,!food!availability,! etc.!to!changes!in!health!outcomes,!but!often!ignore!ecosystem!drivers!of!those! factors.!! ! Extend!ES!models!to!the!right!to!lead!toward!health!outcomes! ! ! Cross-cutting – production functions Ecosystems! Ecosystem! Services! Vectors,! hosts,!food,! air!quality,! etc.! Health! outcomes! ! ! ! Extend!health!models!to!the!left!to!begin!with!ecosystem!drivers! ! No!matter!which!direction!proves!most!fruitful,!we!should!drive!toward!empirical! results!using!data!in!at!least!one!place!with!at!least!one!full!production!function!and! accompanying!model.!!This!is!also!captured!well!in!the!outcome!table.! ! How!to!get!it!done! Outcome!1!needs!to!be!driven!by!a!key!postdoc!that!can!understand!the!current! The rough plan Funds for 3-year post-doc •Co-advise with Sam Myers What will they do? •Build general prod. function with one HEAL case study •Extend one NatCap model to report human health outcomes •Do own case study – take advantage of existing dataset •Build library of existing elements of production functions Keck Futures Initiative • Ecosystem services conference Working Group: ES and Health • Disease ecologists, epidemiologists, ES people • Central idea: Link ecosystem and health models • Follow up grant: $100K (Kate Brauman leading) • Framework to link disciplines • Review, concept paper, case study? • Similar to HEAL (but more academic). Join forces? How new is this? Old: •Bunch of good case examples, some classics – Lyme disease – dilution effect – Malaria – deforestation – Mental health – recreation •Environmental health: indoor air quality, etc. New: •Focus on consequences of ecosystem change. •General understanding – production functions •Make available to decision makers (kinda like NatCap) Thanks HEAL: •Kate Brauman •Steve Osofsky •Kent Redford •Sam Myers •Stacy Jupiter •Jonathan Patz •Daniel Jacob •Helen Fox •Lynne Gaffiken •…. NAKFI: •Kate Brauman •Joshua Adkins •Brian Allan •Francis de los Reyes •James Garrison •Tony Goldberg •Diana GrigsbyToussaint •Jean Ristaino •Beth Winkelstein •…. NAKFI group • • • • • • • • • • Joshua Adkins Systems biologist of bacterial pathogens, focus on multi-omics (proteomics, metabolomics, glycomics, genomics) analysis Brian Allan Global change, human land-use, ecology of infectious diseases Kate A Brauman Ecosystem services measurement and valuation, focus on hydrologic services, agricultural water use Francis de los Reyes Environmental engineering, biological processes, applied microbiology, biotechnology James Garrison Remote sensing of the environment Tony Goldberg Ecology and evolution of infectious disease; global animal and human health Diana Grigsby-Toussaint Environmental influences on chronic disease risk Taylor Ricketts Ecosystem services modeling, mapping, valuation; ecological economics Jean Ristaino Plant disease ecology, epidemiology research, population genetics of pathogens in agroecosystems Beth Winkelstein Assessment and measurement of chronic disease, bioengineering approach to neurological diseases such as pain Examples: Anopheles occurrence ~ deforestation Vittor, A., et al. 2009. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg.
