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Facing the Odds The Mathematics of Gambling Richard A. LaBrie Joseph B. Martin, M.D. Dean Harvard Medical School Christine Thurmond, Administrator Clare Bruff-Graves, Admin. Asst. Gabriel Caro, Web & Technology Manager Lymari Graciano, Financial Manager Dennis L. Kasper, M.D. Dean for Academic Programs In the Faculty of Medicine John Knight, M.D., Associate Director, Medical Education Howard J. Shaffer, Ph.D. Director Division on Addictions Bertha Madras, Ph.D., Associate Director, Public Education Will Brownsberger, J.D., Associate Director, Public Policy Richard LaBrie, Ed. D., Associate Director, Research & Data Analysis Debi LaPlante, Ph.D. Research Associate Anthony Donato, M.P.P., Rachel Kidman, B.A. Research Assistants Christine Reilly, Executive Director, Institute for Research on Pathological Gambling & Related Disorders Harvard Medical School Division on Addictions Institute for Research on Pathological Gambling and Related Disorders Intramural Research Program (Conducted by DOA Faculty) Neuroscience Neuroimaging Methods Technology Toolkit Social/Psych studies College Alcohol-Gambling Study Extramural Research Program Education & Dissemination RFAs Think Tanks Grants to non-Harvard Institutions DOA web site The WAGER Annual Conference: Understanding Gambling Disorders The Genesis of Facing the Odds Brief History • Addiction Science Curriculum • “… represents an innovative attempt to increase young people's scientific literacy while concurrently preventing or reducing their participation in potentially addictive behaviors.” Howard J. Shaffer, Ph.D., C.A.S. October 7, 1996 The International Mathematics & Science Study* • National Center for Education Statistics, National Science Foundation, Office of Educational Research and Improvement – Eighth grade students are performing poorly compared with their peers around the world – Our curriculum was designed to help motivate young people to achieve at more competitive levels * Pursuing Excellence: Comparisons of International Eighth- Grade Mathematics and Science Achievement from a U.S. Perspective, 1995 and 1999 (Gonzales et al., 2000) The International Mathematics & Science Study • American eighth-graders’ mathematics performance was similar to the Russian Federation—outperforming 17 of 38 countries • This level of performance was average among the countries • Exceeded by 14 countries – Including Japan, Korea, England, & Canada Brief History Funding A grant (#1-R25-DA09288-01) from the National Institute on Drug Abuse Tom and Janet Brosig The Massachusetts Council on Compulsive Gambling Scientific Games, Inc. Presentation Objectives • Introduce “Facing the Odds” – Brief Overview • Review gambling & related disorders – Evidence Based Instruction (Best Practices) • Curriculum modules • Implementing “Facing the Odds” Curriculum Overview: Purpose • Make math more meaningful & more fun – by solving problems of interest • Make math more relevant to everyday life – by solving problems of interest • Introduce & apply concepts of number sense, data, statistics, and probability through the use of gambling- and mediarelated topics Curriculum Overview: Approach • Unlike traditional approaches – That usually emphasize the health benefits associated with avoiding addictive behaviors or attach particular values to behaviors (i.e., good vs. bad drugs) • This curriculum focuses on mathematics – Uses gambling & media related issues to present these concepts – Reveals the mathematical realities of various gambling activities and attempts to reinforce critical, statistical, and probabilistic thinking Curriculum Overview: Materials • • • • • 12 Primary Modules Activities Teacher Support Added Practice Activities Visual Aids Important Considerations • Facing the Odds is not a substitute for existing mathematics curricula • There is flexibility in design • Prior understanding of statistics and probability already exists among teachers • Teachers should teach math – be “aware” of how lotteries & other gambling can influence young people thinking Presentation Objectives • Introduce “Facing the Odds” – Brief Overview • Review gambling & related disorders – Evidence Based Instruction (Best Practices) • Curriculum modules • Implementing “Facing the Odds” Best Practices “The conscientious, explicit, & judicious use of current best available external clinical evidence from systematic research, integrated with personal clinical expertise, in making treatment decisions for an individual or group.” David Sackett, 1996 Sackett, D. I. et al. (1996). Evidence-based medicine: what it is and what it isn't. British Medical Journal, 312, 71-72. Factors that Influence Treatment & Treatment Outcome The Common Factors Common Factors • Therapeutic technique factors (15-30%) – Treatment or procedure methods • Relationship characteristics (30%) – Empathy, interpersonal warmth, encouragement • Placebo effects (15-30%) – Hope & expectancies • Patient’s extra-therapeutic factors (40%) – Family, personality, education, economics Percentage Students' Use, Friends' Estimated Use, & Perceived As Very or Extremely Dangerous 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 mb a G g lin N=1539 ol h co ts ts co cs na i n n c a t a u la o la j b l u i c a o r r A h a a im T t In N M S Student Use Friends' Use Perceived as dangerous* ry e tt o L Lifetime Prevalence of Drug & Lottery Use 100 80 60 ALCOHOL LOTTERY 40 CIGARETTES 20 COCAINE/CRACK MARIJUANA NARCOTICS 0 7 8 9 10 Grade 11 12 Massachusetts Department of Public Health; Health & Addictions Research; & Massachusetts Council on Compulsive Gambling; N = 2119 (drug) & 1986 (lottery) te ry nt s Po Ev e th er O Lo t Bi n go gs R ac et ra ck Li fe or ts C ar ds Sp First Gambling Activities 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 N = 466 Early Gambling Experiences 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Friend Other Family Member Parent Other Sibling N = 466 Initial Gambling Success Won Lost DK 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Prevalence First Time N = 161 First Few Times N = 296 70 Frequency of Play Bingo Racetrack Pogs Other Lottery Life events Cards Sports 0 0.5 1 0=never, 1=about once every few months, 2=about once a month, 3=a few times a month, 4=about once a week, 5=a few times a week 1.5 2 N= 466 Grade 6-11 Gambling Preferences Bingo Racetrack Pogs Lottery Life events Other Cards Sports 0 10 20 Percent 30 40 N= 466 Grade 6-11 Perception of Gambling "Skill" Own Skill Level Gambling Skill Involved 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Ot he r gs Po en ts Li fe ev rts Sp o k etr ac Ra c Bi ng o ry tte Lo Ca r ds 0 All differences significant (paired t tests, p<.001, n=466) Gambling Skill: 0=none, 1=small amount, 2=fair amount, 3=fairly large amount, 4=extreme amount; Own skill: 0=not at all, 1=slightly, 2=somewhat, 3=very, 4=extremely Perceived Skill & Characteristics of Gambling: Correlations* DSM IV MAGS 7 How Often in Last Week How Often in Last Year Largest Bet Usual Bet Gambling Skill Involved Own Gambling Skill .3869 .2380 .3432 .4038 .4307 .4898 .4378 .4182 .3445 .5553 .4140 .3476 *All Correlations Significant (p<.001, n=466) Early Warning Signs for Gambling Problems • Early Onset – The younger children begin gambling, the more likely they are to develop gambling problems • Amount of first bet – The larger the amount of a first bet, the more likely children are to develop a gambling problem • “Illusion” of Control How Do You Know If Your Kid is Addicted to Gambling? David Letterman’s Top Ten List April 5, 1995 David Letterman’s Top Ten List April 5, 1995 10. Keeps asking if he can double down on some cookies 9. Has converted hamster’s treadmill into a crude roulette wheel 8. For a six year old, he seems to know way too much about jai-alai 7. His school lunches are comped 6. Knows the Vegas odds on where Waldo might be David Letterman’s Top Ten List (Continued) 5. There’s a bookie sleeping in his treehouse 4. Changed his middle name to “the Greek” 3. He’s 9 and he’s dating a showgirl 2. Says things like “Daddy needs a new skateboard” 1. He likes to ride Amtrak Gambling Connections • Disordered Gamblers have cognitive difficulty understanding – Independent events – Risk-taking – Odds and probability – “Illusion of control” • Failure to understand random events Presentation Objectives • Introduce “Facing the Odds” – Brief Overview • Review gambling & related disorders – Consider the implications for teaching math • Curriculum modules • Implementing “Facing the Odds” 12 Facing the Odds Modules • • • • • • Thinking about averages Number sense Statistics in everyday life Heads or tails? Shared birthdays Becoming a legend 12 Facing the Odds Modules (continued) • • • • • • You bet your life! The gambler’s fallacy Winning and losing the lottery Red and black marbles Realities of winning the lottery Work behaviors of lottery winners 1-1 Objectives Introduce students to the basic concepts of probability, including: randomness combined probability dependent events independent events gambler’s fallacy 1-7 Is an Event Dependent or Independent? INDEPENDENT The outcome of the 1st event does not affect the outcome of the 2nd event DEPENDENT The outcome of the 1st event does affect the outcome of the 2nd event 1-8 Gambler’s Fallacy Mistaking independent events for dependent events In reality, the outcomes are completely independent Presentation Objectives • Introduce “Facing the Odds” – Brief Overview • Review gambling & related disorders – Consider the implications for teaching math • Curriculum modules • Implementing “Facing the Odds” Journalists are Like Scientists • It’s sometimes important for journalists to know how to forget the things they are surest of. What the Sun-Times was Saying • Mark Brown (August 7, 2001): – The curriculum introduces & teaches youngsters to gamble • Games of chance are based upon mathematics; the curriculum simply teaches the mathematics of everyday life – Curriculum is critical of the lottery • Mathematical principles are critical of state & regional lotteries; however, psycho-economics often offsets the facts Sun-Times (continued) – Curriculum was funded by the gaming industry • NIDA & the Massachusetts Council on Compulsive Gambling funded the curriculum • American Gaming Association provided funding for some distribution copies – You should create your own curriculum • Its takes years to create a curriculum and more years to evaluate it • More curriculum choices are useful • This curriculum was developed on the basis of a needs assessment Available Resources & Links • www.hms.harvard.edu/doa • www.thewager.com • Journal of Gambling Studies • Nancy Beben (225.342.3946)