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Human Health Primary Source: IPCC WG-2 Chapter 8 - Human Health (Plus parts of WG-2 Chapters 9-16) (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Human Health: Factors and Trends “Health includes physical, social and psychological well-being.” • Average life expectancy at birth, since 1950s: • Child mortality (1970 - 2002): • In parts of Africa, life expectancy, last 20 yr.: • In 16 countries, mortality under age 5: • ~ 2 M deaths/yr by diarrhoeal diseases (unsafe water) • ~ 1 M child deaths/yr by malaria • 840 M people under-nourished, 1998-2000 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Pathways: Climate Change Human Health (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Contributors to Vulnerability • Heat Waves • Cold waves • Wind, storms and floods • Drought • Air & water quality • Infectious diseases • Ultraviolet radiation (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Most Vulnerable • Low-income countries (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Most Vulnerable • Low-income countries • Urban poor • Elderly and children • Traditional societies • Subsistence farmers • Coastal populations Darfur, Afghanistan Philippines Zimbabwe Senegal Sudan (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Gender Factors • Gender differences in exposure to risk, warning communication, social/economic impacts … • Natural disasters have produced increased domestic violence • Natural disasters provide empowerment opportunities - 1999 Orissa (India) cyclone: women received the relief kits, including home-building grants improved social status & self-esteem - 1992 Pakistan flood: women involved in reconstruction & design of homes and given joint ownership (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Wealth Factors • No one is immune! Hurricane Katrina 2003 Heat Wave (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Africa: Current Health “Hotspots” - 1 Declines in real wealth Complex and serial disasters: Deteriorating food security Amplify vulnerability (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Africa: Current Health “Hotspots” - 2 Dryness, low humidity, dusty conditions Vulnerable populations (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) European Heatwave - 2003 - Anomaly JJA temperature anomaly relative to (1961-1999) Bottom panels: Switzerland Observed (1864-2002) RCM simulation (1961-1990) RCM simulation (2071-2100) A2 scenario, HadAM3H GCM (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) European Heatwave - 2003 - France Excess mortality: 1-15 August 2003 Daily mortality & temperature: Paris (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Selected Health Impacts of Climate Change Changes in distribution of T, humidity, precip., drought Changes in drought, flood, pests, disruption of distribution Drought promotes dusty air Changes in distribution of T, humidity, precip., drought Reduced water quality by stagnation, flood aftermath… (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16) Human Health END (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Human Health (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 8,9-16)