Download Evidence Based Policy Making

Evidence Based Policy Making
A presentation prepared for
High Level Inception Seminar
on
National Strategy for the Development
of Statistics (NSDS)
Baikuntha Aryal
Economic Policy Analysis Division
Ministry of Finance
Presentation Outline
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Brief Introduction
Use of statistics in policy making
Demand and supply of statistics
Role of Institutions
National System for Statistics
Conclusion
What is?
Evidence based policy making :
• relatively a new approach
• an approach for well informed decisions about
policies, programs and projects
• has capabilities to defend the policy decisions, with a
set of evidence
• has capabilities for in-depth analysis, with
information about the problem and impacts
• a process that helps planners make better informed
decisions by putting the best available evidence at
the centre of the policy process (MDG)
• can be a basis for result based management
Different than normal policy making?
Evidence Based Policy Making has better ability to
• achieve recognition of a policy issue : bases on the
information and provides room for lobbying and advocacy
• inform the design and choice of policy : capacity for
making proper recommendations
• forecast the future : understanding the issue and analyzing
the impact
• monitor policy implementation : measurable indicators
for monitoring
• evaluate policy impact : data and information makes the
policy impact smooth and simpler
What are needed?
Evidence based policy making demands
• reliable and accessible statistics
• understanding of statistics
• statistical analysis
• theoretical (with the use of statistical tools)
• practical (sometimes mere theoretical analysis may not be
understandable to everyone)
• proper use of statistics
• availability of follow up statistics
However, the evidence is not statistics alone
What contributes for evidence base?
Evidence bases are
• Descriptive : expert opinion, literatures
• Experimental : random trials, quasi experiments
• Existing and established theories : confirmed theories,
reviews
• Qualitative : qualitative researches, observations
• Quantitative : statistics, modeling
Why statistics?
Statistics give the strong base of evidence for
policy (some examples)
• Poverty reduction : 23.8 percent population lives below
poverty line, but where? Segregated data on quintiles or deciles
base?
• Social security : how effective? Are the real beneficiaries
getting it?
• Education for all : demographic information up to
village/ward level, infrastructure and human resources
information
• Health insurance : infrastructure, health personnel,
demographic information
• Food security : price effect, supply constraint, international
trade
Why statistics? ………contd
Statistics give the strong base of evidence for
planning
• Base line information : where we stand now?
• Inter sectoral linkages : how other sector contributes in
developing other sector?
• Complementarity : what further needs, e.g. human
resource planning?
• Structure of economy : what to prioritize?
• Past information - bases for moving forward : what
went wrong? What can be corrective measures?
Why statistics? ………contd
Statistics in economic policy
• Real sector
• Growth, Investment, Consumption, Inflation
• Government sector
• Fiscal policy, Government expenditure and sources
• Monetary sector
• Monetary flow, interest rates, exchange rates
• External sector
• International trade, balance of payments
Why statistics? ………contd
Statistics in every phase of policy process
• Policy identification : need, coverage, possible outputs
• Policy analysis : pros and cons of policy, possible impact
• Policy implementation : how is it performing? Any need of
change
• Policy monitoring : indicators to monitor
• Policy evaluation : comparison of target and achievement,
impact analysis, replicability
Statistics vs Data
Statistics is study of the collection, organization,
analysis, interpretation and presentation of data
Data
• Cross sectional : taken at a point of time for different
sample units, used for policy intervention, e.g. poverty data
• Time series : taken at different time period for the same
unit, used for historical analysis, e.g. GDP data
• Panel : cross sectional time series taken for the same sample
units, used for analyzing impact of policy intervention, e.g.
NLSS data
Official statistics
Statistics can be obtained from different sources
but the official statistics have
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Better reliability
Wider coverage
Less bias
Authenticity
Methodological transparency and clarity
Demand and supply of statistics
The policies hardly make use of statistics,
therefore, low demand: reasons being
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Lower analytical capacity and insufficient tools
Lower understanding of statistics on policy making
Unavailability of disaggregated data
Lack of appropriate database, giving limited room for
desired data
• Lack of sufficient knowledge on how the desired data
set to obtain from the larger database
Demand and supply of statistics (……….contd)
The supply of data depends on the data producing
agencies, therefore, in many occasions supply is
constrained, because of
• Undeveloped infrastructure for database
• Ownership confusion
• Lack of appropriate data designing
• Insufficient data processing and data storage capacity
• Unavailability of data on regular interval
Because of insufficient supply of data, the aggregated
statistics cannot be prepared for overall analysis, which
affects the policy making process in a whole
Role for official statistics
Each government agency has to be made
responsible for statistics, because of
• better access to data
• better understanding of nature and scope of data
• being regulator of all the activities under it, in most
cases
Therefore,
Each government agency should prepare and supply the
data to CBS and other agencies, as needed
Role for official statistics
All government agencies produce data and
statistics. But, CBS is made more responsible for
this
• CBS depends on the data produced by other
agencies, e.g. agriculture data by MOAD, trade data by
MOCS
• Census and surveys carried out by CBS
• CBS processes the data from other agencies and
surveys as well as census
• In a way, CBS prepares statistics based on the data
provided by other agencies
National Statistical Systems
The aim of National Statistical System is to
• serve the Government, the economy and the public
with data about the economic, demographic, social
and environmental situation
and is
• expected to provide an objective perspective
• to enable public scrutiny of government actions and
accountability to the public, and
• to open a window on the work and performance of
government itself
Take Home Message
• Statistics play crucial role in evidence based policy
making
• Extensive use of statistics is necessary for policy analysis
• The demand and supply of statistics should match
• Inter agency coordination is a must
• Capacity for statistical analysis needs to strengthen
• The reliability and authenticity is a matter of concern
Thank You !