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Ch2 Descriptive Analysis & Presentation of SingleVariable Data Black Bears Mean: 60.07 inches Median: 62.50 inches Range: 42 inches 20 Variance: 117.681 Standard deviation: 10.85 inches Minimum: 36 inches Frequency Maximum: 78 inches 10 First quartile: 51.63 inches Third quartile: 67.38 inches Count: 58 bears Sum: 3438.1 inches 0 30 40 50 60 Length in Inches 70 80 Chapter Goals • Learn how to present and describe sets of data • Learn measures of central tendency, measures of dispersion (spread), measures of position, and types of distributions • Learn how to interpret findings so that we know what the data is telling us about the sampled population 2.1 ~ Graphic Presentation of Data Use initial exploratory data-analysis techniques to produce a pictorial(繪畫的) representation of the data • Resulting displays reveal(展露) patterns of behavior of the variable being studied • The method used is determined by the type of data and the idea to be presented • No single correct answer when constructing a graphic display Circle Graphs & Bar Graphs Graphs that are used to summarize attribute data. • Circle graphs (pie diagrams) show the amount of data that belongs to each category as a proportional ( 比例) part of a circle • Bar graphs show the amount of data that belongs to each category as proportionally sized rectangular areas Example The table below lists the number of automobiles sold last week by day for a local dealership. Describe the data using a circle graph and a bar graph: Day Number Sold Monday 15 Tuesday 23 Wednesday 35 Thursday 11 Friday 12 Saturday 42 Circle Graph Solution Automobiles Sold Last Week Day Number Sold Monday 15 Tuesday 23 Wednesday 35 Thursday 11 Friday 12 Saturday 42 Bar Graph Solution Automobiles Sold Last Week No. Sold Mon. 15 Tue. 23 Wed. 35 Thu. 11 Fri. 12 Sat. 42 Frequency Day Pareto Diagram (柏拉圖) • Pareto Diagram: A bar graph with the bars arranged from the most numerous category to the least numerous category. It includes a line graph displaying the cumulative percentages and counts for the bars. Notes: The Pareto diagram is often used in quality control applications Used to identify the number and type of defects that happen within a product or service Example The final daily inspection defect report for a cabinet manufacturer is given in the table below: Defect Dent 凹痕 Stain 污跡 Blemish 瑕疵 Chip 屑片 Scratch 擦傷 Others 其他 Number 5 12 43 25 40 10 1) Construct a Pareto diagram for this defect report. Management has given the cabinet production line the goal of reducing their defects by 50%. 2) What two defects should they give special attention to in working toward this goal? Solutions Daily Defect Inspection Report 1) 140 100 120 80 100 60 80 Count Percent 60 40 40 20 20 0 Defect: Count Percent Cum% 0 Blemish Scratch Chip Stain Others Dent 43 31.9 31.9 40 29.6 61.5 25 18.5 80.0 12 8.9 88.9 10 7.4 96.3 5 3.7 100.0 2) The production line should try to eliminate blemishes and scratches. This would cut defects by more than 50%. Key Definitions Quantitative Data: One reason for constructing a graph of quantitative data is to examine the distribution - is the data compact(緊密), spread out(散開), skewed(歪斜) , symmetric(對 稱), etc. Distribution(分佈): The pattern of variability displayed by the data of a variable. The distribution displays the frequency of each value of the variable. Dotplot Display: Displays the data of a sample by representing each piece of data with a dot positioned along a scale. This scale can be either horizontal or vertical. The frequency of the values is represented along the other scale. Example A random sample of the lifetime (in years) of 50 home washing machines is given below: 2.5 16.9 4.5 0.9 1.5 17.8 8.5 8.9 2.5 6.4 14.5 0.7 7.3 1.4 12.2 3.5 2.9 4.0 3.7 6.8 7.4 4.1 0.4 3.3 0.9 4.2 3.3 4.7 18.1 2.6 4.4 7.2 6.9 7.0 0.7 1.6 2.2 9.2 5.2 15.3 4.0 10.4 12.2 4.0 4.1 1.8 21.8 18.3 3.6 The figure below is a dotplot for the 50 lifetimes: . : . . .:. ..: :.::::::.. . .::. ... . : . . . :. . +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+------0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 Note: Notice how the data is “bunched” near the lower extreme and more “spread out” near the higher extreme Stem & Leaf Display Background: – The stem(莖)-and-leaf(葉) display has become very popular for summarizing numerical data – It is a combination of graphing and sorting – The actual data is part of the graph – Well-suited for computers Stem-and-Leaf Display: Pictures the data of a sample using the actual digits that make up the data values. Each numerical data is divided into two parts: The leading digit(s) becomes the stem, and the trailing digit(s) becomes the leaf. The stems are located along the main axis, and a leaf for each piece of data is located so as to display the distribution of the data. Example A city police officer, using radar, checked the speed of cars as they were traveling down the main street in town. Construct a stem-and-leaf plot for this data: 41 31 33 35 36 37 39 49 33 19 26 27 24 32 40 39 16 55 38 36 Solution: All the speeds are in the 10s, 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s. Use the first digit of each speed as the stem and the second digit as the leaf. Draw a vertical line and list the stems, in order to the left of the line. Place each leaf on its stem: place the trailing digit on the right side of the vertical line opposite its corresponding leading digit. Example 41 31 33 35 36 37 39 49 33 19 26 27 24 32 40 39 16 55 38 36 20 Speeds 20 Speeds --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | ---------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------• The speeds are centered around the 30s Note: The display could be constructed so that only five possible values (instead of ten) could fall in each stem. What would the stems look like? Would there be a difference in appearance? Example 20 Speeds --------------------------------------1 | 6 9 2 | 4 6 7 3 | 1 2 3 3 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 4 | 0 1 9 5 | 5 ---------------------------------------- 20 Speeds --------------------------------------(10-14) 1 | (15-19) 1 | (20-24) 2 | (25-29) 2 | (30-34) 3 | (35-39) 3 | (40-44) 4 | (45-49) 4 | (50-54) 5 | (55-59) 5 | ---------------------------------------- Remember! 1. It is fairly typical of many variables to display a distribution that is concentrated (mounded) about a central value and then in some manner be dispersed in both directions. 2. A display that indicates two “mounds” may really be two overlapping distributions 3. A back-to-back stem-and-leaf display makes it possible to compare two distributions graphically 4. A side-by-side dotplot is also useful for comparing two distributions Example Weight of 50 College Students (lb) --------------------------------------Female Male --------------------------------------8|9| 1 8 8 |10| Back-to-Back 0 2 5 5 6 8 8 |11| 0 0 0 8 9 |12| 2 5 7 |13| 2 |14| 3 5 8 |15| 0 4 4 5 7 8 |16| 1 2 2 5 7 8 |17| 0 0 6 6 7 |18| 3 4 6 8 |19| 0 1 5 5 |20| 5 |21| 5 ---------------------------------------- Weight of 50 College Students (lb) --------------------------------------9| 8 10 | 1 8 8 11 | 0 2 5 5 6 8 8 12 | 0 0 0 8 9 13 | 2 5 7 14 | 2 3 5 8 15 | 0 4 4 5 7 8 16 | 1 2 2 5 7 8 17 | 0 0 6 6 7 18 | 3 4 6 8 19 | 0 1 5 5 20 | 5 21 | 5 ---------------------------------------- . . .. :..::: Female ..... . +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+------- . …. ::.:.:: :. :..: : Side-by-Side Male . +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+------100 125 150 175 200 225 weight . weight 2.2 ~ Frequency Distributions & Histograms Stem-and-leaf plots often present adequate summaries, but they can get very big • Need other techniques for summarizing data • Frequency distributions and histograms are used to summarize large data sets Frequency Distributions Frequency(頻率) Distribution: A listing, often expressed in chart form, that pairs each value of a variable with its frequency Ungrouped Frequency Distribution: Each value of x in the distribution stands alone Grouped Frequency Distribution: Group the values into a set of classes 1. A table that summarizes data by classes, or class intervals 2. In a typical grouped frequency distribution, there are usually 5-12 classes of equal width 3. The table may contain columns for class number, class interval, tally (if constructing by hand), frequency, relative frequency, cumulative relative frequency, and class midpoint 4. In an ungrouped frequency distribution each class consists of a single value Frequency Distributions Guidelines for constructing a frequency distribution: 1. All classes should be of the same width 2. Classes should be set up so that they do not overlap and so that each piece of data belongs to exactly one class 3. For problems in the text, 5-12 classes are most desirable. The square root of n is a reasonable guideline for the number of classes if n is less than 150. (如:100分通常 分10組) Frequency Distributions Procedure for constructing a frequency distribution: 1. Identify the high (H) and low (L) scores. Find the range. Range = H - L 2. Select a number of classes and a class width so that the product is a bit larger than the range 3. Pick a starting point a little smaller than L. Count from L by the width to obtain the class boundaries. Observations that fall on class boundaries are placed into the class interval to the right. Example The hemoglobin(血紅素) test, a blood test given to diabetics(糖尿 病患) during their periodic checkups, indicates the level of control of blood sugar during the past two to three months. The data in the table below was obtained for 40 different diabetics at a university clinic that treats diabetic patients: 6.5 6.4 5.0 7.9 5.0 6.0 8.0 6.0 5.6 5.6 6.5 5.6 7.6 6.0 6.1 6.0 4.8 5.7 6.4 6.2 8.0 9.2 6.6 7.7 7.5 8.1 7.2 6.7 7.9 8.0 5.9 7.7 8.0 6.5 4.0 8.2 9.2 6.6 5.7 9.0 1) Construct a grouped frequency distribution using the classes 3.7 ~ <4.7, 4.7 ~ <5.7, 5.7 ~ <6.7, etc. 2) Which class has the highest frequency? Solutions 1) Class Frequency Relative Cumulative Class Boundaries f Frequency Rel. Frequency Midpoint, x --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3.7 ~ <4.7 1 0.025 0.025 4.2 4.7 ~ <5.7 6 0.150 0.175 5.2 5.7 ~ <6.7 16 0.400 0.575 6.2 6.7 ~ <7.7 4 0.100 0.675 7.2 7.7 ~ <8.7 10 0.250 0.925 8.2 8.7 ~ <9.7 3 0.075 1.000 9.2 2) The class 5.7 - <6.7 has the highest frequency. The frequency is 16 and the relative frequency is 0.40 Histogram(直方圖) Histogram: A bar graph representing a frequency distribution of a quantitative variable. A histogram is made up of the following components: 1. A title, which identifies the population of interest 2. A vertical scale, which identifies the frequencies in the various classes 3. A horizontal scale, which identifies the variable x. Values for the class boundaries or class midpoints may be labeled along the xaxis. Use whichever method of labeling the axis best presents the variable. Notes: The relative frequency is sometimes used on the vertical scale It is possible to create a histogram based on class midpoints Example Construct a histogram for the blood test results given in the previous example. The Hemoglobin Test Solution: 15 10 Frequency 5 0 4.2 5.2 6.2 7.2 Blood Test 8.2 9.2 Example A recent survey of Roman Catholic(天主教徒) nuns(修女) summarized their ages in the table below. Construct a histogram for this age data: Age Frequency Class Midpoint -----------------------------------------------------------20 up to 30 34 25 30 up to 40 58 35 40 up to 50 76 45 50 up to 60 187 55 60 up to 70 254 65 70 up to 80 241 75 80 up to 90 147 85 Solution Roman Catholic Nuns 200 Frequency 100 0 25 35 45 55 Age 65 75 85 Terms Used to Describe Histograms Symmetrical(對稱): Both sides of the distribution are identical mirror images. There is a line of symmetry. Uniform (Rectangular)(一致): Every value appears with equal frequency Skewed(歪斜): One tail is stretched out longer than the other. The direction of skewness is on the side of the longer tail. (Positively skewed vs. negatively skewed) J-Shaped: There is no tail on the side of the class with the highest frequency Bimodal: The two largest classes are separated by one or more classes. Often implies two populations are sampled. Normal: A symmetrical distribution is mounded about the mean and becomes sparse at the extremes Important Reminders The mode is the value that occurs with greatest frequency (discussed in Section 2.3) The modal class is the class with the greatest frequency A bimodal distribution has two high-frequency classes separated by classes with lower frequencies Graphical representations of data should include a descriptive, meaningful title and proper identification of the vertical and horizontal scales Cumulative Frequency Distribution Cumulative Frequency Distribution: A frequency distribution that pairs cumulative frequencies with values of the variable • The cumulative frequency for any given class is the sum of the frequency for that class and the frequencies of all classes of smaller values • The cumulative relative frequency for any given class is the sum of the relative frequency for that class and the relative frequencies of all classes of smaller values Example A computer science aptitude test was given to 50 students. The table below summarizes the data: Class Relative Cumulative Cumulative Boundaries Frequency Frequency Frequency Rel. Frequency ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------0 up to 4 4 0.08 4 0.08 4 up to 8 8 0.16 12 0.24 8 up to 12 8 0.16 20 0.40 12 up to 16 20 0.40 40 0.80 16 up to 20 6 0.12 46 0.92 20 up to 24 3 0.06 49 0.98 24 up to 28 1 0.02 50 1.00 Ogive (頻度曲線) Ogive: A line graph of a cumulative frequency or cumulative relative frequency distribution. An ogive has the following components: 1. A title, which identifies the population or sample 2. A vertical scale, which identifies either the cumulative frequencies or the cumulative relative frequencies 3. A horizontal scale, which identifies the upper class boundaries. Until the upper boundary of a class has been reached, you cannot be sure you have accumulated all the data in the class. Therefore, the horizontal scale for an ogive is always based on the upper class boundaries. Note: Every ogive starts on the left with a relative frequency of zero at the lower class boundary of the first class and ends on the right with a relative frequency of 100% at the upper class boundary of the last class. Example The graph below is an ogive using cumulative relative frequencies for the computer science aptitude data: Computer Science Aptitude Test 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Cumulative Relative Frequency 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 4 8 12 Test Score 16 20 24 28 2.3 ~ Measures of Central Tendency Numerical values used to locate the middle of a set of data, or where the data is clustered • The term average is often associated with all measures of central tendency Mean Mean: The type of average with which you are probably most familiar. The mean is the sum of all the values divided by the total number of values, n: 1 1 x = xi = ( x1 + x2 + . . . + xn ) n n Notes: The population mean, , (lowercase mu, Greek alphabet), is the mean of all x values for the entire population We usually cannot measure but would like to estimate its value A physical representation: the mean is the value that balances the weights on the number line Example The following data represents the number of accidents in each of the last 6 years at a dangerous intersection. Find the mean number of accidents: 8, 9, 3, 5, 2, 6, 4, 5: Solution: In the data above, change 6 to 26: Solution: Note: The mean can be greatly influenced by outliers 平均薪資 Median Median(中位數): The value of the data that occupies the middle position when the data are ranked in order according to size Notes: ~ Denoted by “x tilde”: x The population median, (uppercase mu, Greek alphabet), is the data value in the middle position of the entire population To find the median: 1. Rank the data x ) = n +1 2. Determine the depth of the median: d ( ~ 2 3. Determine the value of the median Example Find the median for the set of data: {4, 8, 3, 8, 2, 9, 2, 11, 3} Solution: 1. Rank the data: 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 8, 8, 9, 11 x ) = (9 +1)/ 2 = 5 2. Find the depth: d ( ~ 3. The median is the fifth number from either end in the ranked x =4 data: ~ Suppose the data set is {4, 8, 3, 8, 2, 9, 2, 11, 3, 15}: 1. Rank the data: 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 8, 8, 9, 11, 15 2. Find the depth: d ( ~x ) = (10 + 1) / 2 = 5.5 3. The median is halfway between the fifth and sixth observations: ~ x = (4 +8)/ 2 = 6 Mode(眾數) & Midrange Mode: The mode is the value of x that occurs most frequently Note: If two or more values in a sample are tied for the highest frequency (number of occurrences), there is no mode Midrange: The number exactly midway between a lowest value data L and a highest value data H. It is found by averaging the low and the high values: midrange= L+ H 2 Example Consider the data set {12.7, 27.1, 35.6, 44.2, 18.0} Midrange Notes: When rounding off an answer, a common rule-of-thumb(經 驗法則) is to keep one more decimal place in the answer than was present in the original data To avoid round-off buildup, round off only the final answer, not intermediate steps 2.4 ~ Measures of Dispersion Measures of central tendency alone cannot completely characterize a set of data. Two very different data sets may have similar measures of central tendency. • Measures of dispersion (分散) are used to describe the spread, or variability, of a distribution • Common measures of dispersion: range, variance, and standard deviation Range Range(全距): The difference in value between the highestvalued (H) and the lowest-valued (L) pieces of data: range= H L 計算容易,但忽略資料分配情形: • Other measures of dispersion are based on the following quantity Deviation from the Mean: A deviation from the mean, x x , is the difference between the value of x and the mean x Example Consider the sample {12, 23, 17, 15, 18}. Find 1) the range and 2) each deviation from the mean. Solutions: 1) range= H L = 2312 =11 2) x = 1(12 + 23+17 +15+18) =17 5 Data Deviation from Mean x x x _________________________ 12 -5 23 6 17 0 15 -2 18 1 Mean Absolute Deviation Note: (x x) = 0 (Always!) Mean Absolute Deviation: The mean of the absolute values of the deviations from the mean: 1 Mean absolute deviation = n | x x | For the previous example: 1 1 + + + + = 14 = = | x x| (5 6 0 2 1) 2.8 n 5 5 Sample Variance & Standard Deviation Sample Variance: The sample variance, s2, is the mean of the squared deviations, calculated using n 1 as the divisor: 1 s2 = ( x x ) 2 where n is the sample size n 1 Note: The numerator(分子) for the sample variance is called the sum of squares for x, denoted SS(x): s2 = SS( x) SS ( x ) = ( x x ) 2 = x 2 where n 1 1 n ( x ) 2 2 n n i=1x 2 1 ( x x ) = ( x 2 xx + x ) = x 2 x x + x 1 = x 2 x (nx ) + nx = x nx = x n n = x n ( x) 2 i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 n n 2 n 2 2 n 2 n 2 n n 2 2 n n 2 2 2 Standard Deviation: The standard deviation of a sample, s, is the positive square root of the variance: s = s2 n v.s. n-1 樣本變異數的「任務」,就是為了估計母體變異數。 有時樣本變異數會比σ2大,這是高估,有時又會低估。 除非運氣特別好,才會碰巧估得毫釐不差。 估計都希望能「準」,這包含兩種意義。 1. 所有可能的樣本結果放在一起考慮的話,高估和低估的情 況彼此抵消掉,所以平均起來不高估也不低估,這又叫不偏 (unbiased)。 2.從不同樣本得到的結果(即樣本變異數),差別不要太大。 樣本變異數除以 n - 1,是因為用 n - 1 當作分母, 才能夠有「不偏」性質 例如:「全臺灣的高中生當中,體重最重和最輕者的差 距」抽樣計算全距的結果一定是「有偏」,樣本變異數 也有同樣的情況。 v.s. 2 = 1 2 1 2 2 σ ( x ) μ s = ( x x) n n 1 Example Find the 1) variance and 2) standard deviation for the data {5, 7, 1, 3, 8}: Solutions: Notes The shortcut formula for the sample variance: (可以不用先將mean算出來) ( x ) x n 2 2 s2 = n 1 The unit of measure for the standard deviation is the same as the unit of measure for the data 2.5 ~ Mean & Standard Deviation of Frequency Distribution If the data is given in the form of a frequency distribution, we need to make a few changes to the formulas for the mean, variance, and standard deviation • Complete the extension table in order to find these summary statistics To Calculate • In order to calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation for data: 1. In an ungrouped frequency distribution, use the frequency of occurrence, f, of each observation 2. In a grouped frequency distribution, we use the frequency of occurrence associated with each class midpoint: xf x= f s = 2 x 2 xf ) ( f f f 1 2 Example A survey of students in the first grade at a local school asked for the number of brothers and/or sisters for each child. The results are summarized in the table below. Find 1) the mean, 2) the variance, and 3) the standard deviation: 2.6 ~ Measures of Position Measures of position are used to describe the relative location of an observation • Quartiles(四分位數) and percentiles(百分位數) are two of the most popular measures of position • An additional measure of central tendency, the midquartile, is defined using quartiles • Quartiles are part of the 5-number summary Quartiles Values of the variable that divide the ranked data into quarters; each set of data has three quartiles 1. The first quartile, Q1, is a number such that at most 25% of the data are smaller in value than Q1 and at most 75% are larger 2. The second quartile, Q2, is the median 3. The third quartile, Q3, is a number such that at most 75% of the data are smaller in value than Q3 and at most 25% are larger Ranked data, increasing order 25% L 25% Q1 25% Q2 25% Q3 H Percentiles Values of the variable that divide a set of ranked data into 100 equal subsets; each set of data has 99 percentiles. The kth percentile, Pk, is a value such that at most k% of the data is smaller in value than Pk and at most (100 k)% of the data is larger. at most k % L at most (100 - k )% Pk H Notes: The 1st quartile and the 25th percentile are the same: Q1 = P25 The median, the 2nd quartile, and the 50th percentile are x = Q2 = P50 all the same: ~ Finding Pk (and Quartiles) Procedure for finding Pk (and quartiles): 1. Rank the n observations, lowest to highest 2. Compute A = (nk)/100 = n(k/100) 3. If A is an integer: – d(Pk) = A.5 (depth) – Pk is halfway between the value of the data in the Ath position and the value of the next data If A is a fraction: – d(Pk) = B, the next larger integer – Pk is the value of the data in the Bth position Example The following data represents the pH levels of a random sample of swimming pools in a California town. Find: 1) the first quartile, 2) the third quartile, and 3) the 37th percentile: 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.0 5.6 6.1 6.8 7.3 5.8 6.2 6.8 7.4 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.4 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.5 Solutions: 1) k = 25: (20) (25/ 100) = 5, depth = 5.5, Q1 = 6 Midquartile The numerical value midway between the first and third quartile. Q1 + Q3 midquartile= 2 Example: Find the midquartile for the 20 pH values in the previous example: Q1 + Q3 6 + 6.95 12.95 = = = 6.475 midquartile = 2 2 2 Note: The mean, median, midrange, and midquartile are all measures of central tendency. They are not necessarily equal. Can you think of an example when they would be the same value? 5-Number Summary The 5-number summary is composed of: 1. L, the smallest value in the data set 2 . Q1, the first quartile (also P25) x, the median (also P50 and 2nd quartile) 3. ~ 4. Q3, the third quartile (also P75) 5. H, the largest value in the data set Notes: The 5-number summary indicates how much the data is spread out in each quarter The interquartile range is the difference between the first and third quartiles. It is the range of the middle 50% of the data Box-and-Whisker Display A graphic representation of the 5-number summary: • The five numerical values (smallest, first quartile, median, third quartile, and largest) are located on a scale, either vertical or horizontal • The box is used to depict the middle half of the data that lies between the two quartiles • The whiskers are line segments used to depict the other half of the data • One line segment represents the quarter of the data that is smaller in value than the first quartile • The second line segment represents the quarter of the data that is larger in value that the third quartile Example A random sample of students in a sixth grade class was selected. Their weights are given in the table below. Find the 5-number summary for this data and construct a boxplot: 63 85 92 99 112 64 86 93 99 76 88 93 99 76 89 93 101 81 90 94 108 92 ~ x 99 Q3 83 91 97 109 Solution: 63 L 85 Q1 112 H Boxplot for Weight Data Weights from Sixth Grade Class 60 70 80 90 100 110 Weight L Q1 ~ x Q3 H z-Score The position a particular value of x has relative to the mean, measured in standard deviations. The z-score is found by the formula: z= value mean x x = st.dev. s Notes: Typically, the calculated value of z is rounded to the nearest hundredth The z-score measures the number of standard deviations above/below, or away from, the mean z-scores typically range from -3.00 to +3.00 z-scores may be used to make comparisons of raw scores Example A certain data set has mean 35.6 and standard deviation 7.1. Find the z-scores for 46 and 33: Solutions: x x 46 35.6 z= = = 176 . s 7.1 46 is 1.46 standard deviations above the mean 2.7 ~ Interpreting & Understanding Standard Deviation Standard deviation is a measure of variability, or spread • Two rules for describing data rely on the standard deviation: – Empirical rule(經驗法則 ): applies to a variable that is normally distributed – Chebyshev’s theorem: applies to any distribution Empirical Rule If a variable is normally distributed, then: 1. Approximately 68% of the observations lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean 2. Approximately 95% of the observations lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean 3. Approximately 99.7% of the observations lie within 3 standard deviations of the mean Notes: The empirical rule is more informative than Chebyshev’s theorem since we know more about the distribution (normally distributed) Also applies to populations Can be used to determine if a distribution is normally distributed Illustration of the Empirical Rule 99.7% 95% 68% x 3s x 2s xs x x+s x +2s x +3s Example A random sample of plum tomatoes was selected from a local grocery store and their weights recorded. The mean weight was 6.5 ounces with a standard deviation of 0.4 ounces. If the weights are normally distributed: 1) What percentage of weights fall between 5.7 and 7.3? 2) What percentage of weights fall above 7.7? Solutions: 1) ( x 2s, x + 2s) = (6.5 2(0.4), 6.5+ 2(0.4)) = (5.7, 7.3) Approximately 95% of the weights fall between 5.7 and 7.3 2) ( x 3s, x + 3s) = (6.5 3(0.4), 6.5+ 3(0.4)) = (5.3, 7.7) Approximately 99.7% of the weights fall between 5.3 and 7.7 Approximately 0.3% of the weights fall outside (5.3, 7.7) Approximately (0.3 / 2) =0.15% of t he weights fall above 7.7 A Note about the Empirical Rule Note: The empirical rule may be used to determine whether or not a set of data is approximately normally distributed 1. Find the mean and standard deviation for the data 2. Compute the actual proportion of data within 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations from the mean 3. Compare these actual proportions with those given by the empirical rule 4. If the proportions found are reasonably close to those of the empirical rule, then the data is approximately normally distributed Chebyshev’s Theorem The proportion of any distribution that lies within k standard deviations of the mean is at least 1 (1/k2), where k is any positive number larger than 1. This theorem applies to all distributions of data. Illustration: at least 1 12 k x ks x x + ks Empirical Rule v.s. Chebyshev’s Theorem 資料分佈範圍 Chebyshev' s Empirical [-σ, +σ] 至少0% 大約68% [-2σ, +2σ] 至少75% 大約95% [-3σ, +3σ] 至少88.89% 大約99% [-1.5σ, +1.5σ] 至少55.56% 大約86.6% Important Reminders! Chebyshev’s theorem is very conservative and holds for any distribution of data Chebyshev’s theorem also applies to any population The two most common values used to describe a distribution of data are k = 2, 3 The table below lists some values for k and 1 - (1/k2): k 1(1/ k 2) 1.7 0.65 2 0.75 2.5 0.84 3 0.89 Example At the close of trading, a random sample of 35 technology stocks was selected. The mean selling price was 67.75 and the standard deviation was 12.3. Use Chebyshev’s theorem (with k = 2, 3) to describe the distribution. Solutions: Using k=2: At least 75% of the observations lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean: ( x 2s, x + 2s) = (67.75 2(12.3), 67.75 + 2(12.3) = (43.15, 92.35) 2.8 ~ The Art of Statistical Deception Good Arithmetic, Bad Statistics Misleading Graphs Insufficient Information Good Arithmetic, Bad Statistics The mean can be greatly influenced by outliers(極值) Example: The mean salary for all NBA players is $15.5 million Misleading graphs: 1. The frequency scale should start at zero to present a complete picture. Graphs that do not start at zero are used to save space. 2. Graphs that start at zero emphasize the size of the numbers involved 3. Graphs that are chopped off emphasize variation Flight Cancellations 35 30 25 Number of Cancellations 20 15 10 5 0 1996 1998 2000 Year 2002 Flight Cancellations 35 34 33 Number of Cancellations 32 31 30 29 28 27 1996 1998 2000 Year 2002 Insufficient Information Example: An admissions officer from a state school explains that the average tuition at a nearby private university is $13,000 and only $4500 at his school. This makes the state school look more attractive. – If most students pay the full tuition, then the state school appears to be a better choice – However, if most students at the private university receive substantial financial aid, then the actual tuition cost could be much lower! Superimpose Misrepresentation Ithaca Times (Dec. 7, 2000) Truncated Scale http://cgi.usatoday.com/snapshot/money/2001-09-05-service-complaints.htm Simple is Not Always Best Excel軟體指令 插入函數 Mean : AVERAGE(資料範圍),如:AVERAGE(F1:F10) Median:MEDIAN(資料範圍),如:MEDIAN(F1:F10) Mode:MODE(資料範圍),如:MODE(F1:F10) Midrange:(MAX(資料範圍)+MIN(資料範圍))/2 全距:MAX(資料範圍)-MIN(資料範圍) 樣本變異數:VAR(資料範圍),如:VAR(F1:F10) 樣本標準差:STDEV(資料範圍),如:STDEV(F1:F10) 母體變異數:VARP(資料範圍),如:MODE(F1:F10) 母體標準差:STDEVP(資料範圍) ,如:STDEVP(F1:F10) 四分位數:QUARTILE(A1:A200,Quart),Quart = 0~4表 第n個四分位數 百分位數:PERCENTILE(A1:A200, k),0 ≦ k≦1表第 100*k 百分位數,例如:0.37為計算37百分位數