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Improving the scope detail and quality of the national accounts AGNA Meeting 12 – 15 May 2015 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, United Nations Statistics Division 1 Outline • Introduction • Scope and Compliance Measures for the 2008 SNA • Availability, timeliness of annual reporting from a global perspective. • Compliance with the 1993 / 2008 SNA and ISIC Rev. 3.1 / 4. • Scope of national accounts statistics reported to the UNSD. • Template to design country action plans - Statement of strategy 2 Introduction • For monitoring the implementation of the 1993 SNA the ISWGNA developed a set of six milestones to assess the scope of accounts that are compiled by countries. • These milestones were later supplemented by three data sets describing (a) minimum set of accounts that need to be compiled; (b) a recommended set of accounts; and (c) a desired set of accounts. • To assess the compliance with major 1993 SNA concepts the ISWGNA developed a set of questions. • The quality of the national accounts dimension was assessed using the IMF quality assessment framework Scope and Compliance Measures for the 2008 SNA • The elements of the scope and compliance measures used for the 1993 SNA are deemed to be adequate to also assess the scope and compliance for the 2008 SNA. • However, the need for more timely information to facilitate appropriate policy responses highlights the importance to include also the compilation of quarterly national accounts, which require some adjustments to the scope measure as reflected by the required data set measure. • The compliance questionnaire was adjusted to reflect the 2008 SNA concepts for determining the conceptual adherence to the 2008 SNA. Availability, timeliness of annual reporting • Almost all countries are reporting annual national accounts to UNSD, many countries with a time lag of more than one year. • Most countries currently compliant with the 1993 SNA and ISIC Rev. 3.1, with some countries using the 1968 SNA . • Many countries are not able to submit the minimum requirement data set (as defined by the UNSC) to the UNSD. 5 Number of countries reporting annually for the reporting period 2001 to 2013 180 160 Number of responses 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 NAQ reporting period 6 Number of countries reporting annually and data availability Number of countries that replied to the UN-NAQ Total NAQ 2013 NAQ 2014 number At least once NAQ NAQ with 2013 NAQ with 2014 of between 20092014 data 2012 2013 data countries 2013 available available UN Member States 193 183 (95%) 166 165 107 (65%) 87 43 (49%) 44 43 (98%) 43 43 31 (72%) 13 4 (31%) 137 130 (95%) 113 112 66 (59%) 65 36 (55%) CIS countries 12 10 (83%) 10 10 10 (100%) 9 6 (50%) African countries 54 49 (91%) 41 40 22 (55%) 21 10 (48%) Developed countries Developing countries 7 Number of countries reporting annually and data availability 60 50 40 54 54 41 40 54 NAQs submitted 30 20 Total African countries 22 22 21 10 10 0 NAQ 2012 NAQ 2013 NAQ 2014 Data for latest reference year available Number of countries compliant with the 1968, 1993 and 2008 SNA Total number of countries 1968 SNA compliant 1993 SNA compliant UN Member 26 108 193 States Developed 1 6 44 countries Developing 25 91 137 countries 0 11 CIS 12 African 13 35 54 • 59 Member States have implemented the 2008 SNA countries • • • 2008 SNA compliant 59 37 21 1 6 Some Member States have opted to introduce certain aspects of 2008 SNA in a gradual implementation of the 2008 SNA 13% of Member States still use 1968 SNA (24% of African countries) 77 Member States are implementing or partially implementing ISIC Rev. 4. Number of countries submitting the tables of the MRDS GDPp GDPp GDPp IEA GDPe GDPe IEA C K detail Total C K RoW 2.1 / 2.2 / 2.3 / 1.3 / 1.1 1.2 4.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 4.1 UN Member States Developed countries Developing countries CIS African countries 193 168 144 177 172 136 147 101 44 43 42 44 43 43 41 35 137 115 93 123 119 83 96 58 12 10 9 10 10 10 10 8 54 43 37 46 44 25 30 19 Per cent countries submitting the MRDS 100 90 80 70 87 80 60 92 89 85 81 75 69 76 70 56 50 52 46 40 30 35 20 10 0 1.1 1.2 2.1/2.4 2.2/2.52.3/2.6 1.3/4.1 4.2 UN Member States African Countries Scope of National Accounts Statistics Total number of countries MRDS Milestone Level 2 Six or more Seven tables 1 or higher Seven tables tables submitted UN Member States Developed countries Developing countries CIS African countries 193 120 (62%) 93 (48%) 169 (88%) 93 (48%) 44 40 (91%) 34 (77%) 43 (98%) 34 (77%) 137 71 (51%) 51 (36%) 116 (85%) 51 (36%) 12 9 (75%) 8 (67%) 10 (83%) 8 (67%) 54 22 (41%) 18 (33%) 43 (80%) 18 (33%) 12 Statement of strategy as template for country action plans a strategic planning frame work for the development of a statistics programme to meet policy needs set of actions to accomplish statistical and institutional goals for the sustainable improvement of the statistics programmes Statement of Strategy – take into account Policy documents, NSDS, etc. Regional strategic frameworks for statistical capacity building Regulatory and institutional framework Statistical infrastructure Statistical operations Consolidation of statistical requirements, assessments and actions Confrontation of Goals – as determined by international recommendations and policy needs – compliance Requirements to meet goals – administrative and survey resources Current status – present practices Actions – to remedy the shortcomings Statement of strategy Required actions to be carried out: Regulatory and institutional framework – strengthening the functioning of NSS, its programming, management and performance Statistical infrastructure – strengthening the use of standards (2008 SNA), classifications (ISIC Rev 4), registers and frames Statistical operations – strengthening of data collection, compilation, dissemination and analysis Examples of actions Improve statistical legislation, code of conduct, service agreements for NSS Comply with standards: 2008 SNA, ISIC rev 4, etc. Upgrade of business registers and area frames Extend use of administrative data Increase periodicity and timeliness of data (price statistics, production and turnover surveys) Integrate survey and questionnaire design of economic activity surveys (structural business statistics and short term business statistics) Integrate survey and questionnaire design of household surveys (labour and income and expenditure surveys) Extend coverage of enterprises (informal sector surveys etc. Action plan Indicates the interventions to be carried out with a timetable to mitigate data gaps. Provides an information structure for monitoring and evaluating the implementation of the SNA. Needs to be specific, measurable, relevant and be executed in a particular time scale. Each of the required actions needs to include key features and key deliverables. Integrated statistics approach Scope of the statistics programme goes beyond the production of national accounts to also cover the statistical production process of basic statistics and to aspects of the institutional environment It is, thus, based on an integrated statistics approach which Produces statistics that present a consistent and coherent picture of economic activities for policy, business and other analytical uses Uses common concepts, definitions, estimation methods and data sources for statistical reconciliation Moves away from a narrow stove-pipe statistical production model to cross-functional holistic model 19 Integrated statistics approach Building blocks Common conceptual framework provided by the SNA Institutional arrangements (legislative, organizational, budgetary, managerial and customer relationship arrangements) further support the environment for integration Statistical production process as an integrated production chain from the collection of basic data to the dissemination of statistics 20 Macroeconomic accounts Household and demographic statistics Economic & environmental statistics Data integration Inputs Statistical operations Outputs / Dissemination Integrated statistics approach Data processing Data collection Registers and frames Surveys Statistical infrastructure Standards and methods Institutional setting Information, Communication Technology (ICT) Management and internal policy Institutional arrangements 21 Conclusion SNA implementation goals: MRDS Improve quality of NA Statement of strategy: requires agreement by the national statistical system (data producer, provider and user), high political support and donor consultation is basis for formulating a national implementation programme using an integrated statistics approach is basis for actively seeking funding for implementation programmes from own sources and donors Thank you [email protected] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/default.asp 23 Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA: The Data Sets Annual Accounts Quarterly Accounts Nominal and volume measure of GDP by industry or by expenditure components Minimum requirement Minimum requirement 1.1 Expenditures of the GDP in current prices Minimum requirement Optional Minimum Requirement 1.2 Expenditures of the GDP in constant prices Minimum requirement Optional Minimum Requirement 2.1 Value added and GDP in current prices by industry Minimum requirement Optional Minimum Requirement 2.2 Value added and GDP in constant prices by industry Minimum requirement Optional Minimum Requirement Value-added components by industry, current prices Minimum requirement Recommended Employment by industry Minimum requirement Recommended NAQ Table Number GDP, value added and employment 2.3 Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA: The Data Sets NAQ Table Number Annual Accounts Quarterly Accounts Integrated accounts and tables, including integrated satellite accounts 1.3 / 4.1 5.1 Accounts for the total economy (until net lending) Minimum requirement Minimum requirement Supply and use table Recommended Desirable Cross-classification of output/value added by industries and sectors Recommended Tourism accounts, environmental accounts and other socio-economic accounts * Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA: The Data Sets NAQ Table Number Annual Accounts Purpose classification of expenditures 3.1 3.2 General government final consumption (and other) expenditure by purpose in current prices Recommended General government final consumption expenditure by purpose at constant prices * Individual consumption (and other) expenditures by purpose in current prices Recommended Individual consumption expenditures by purpose at constant prices Purpose classification of intermediate and final consumption across all sectors * * Quarterly Accounts Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA: The Data Sets NAQ Table Number Annual Accounts Quarterly Accounts Institutional sector accounts (until net lending) 4.2 Rest of the world accounts (until net lending) Minimum requirement Minimum requirement 4.3 Non-financial corporations sector accounts (until net lending) Minimum requirement Recommended 4.4 Financial corporations accounts (until net lending) Minimum requirement Recommended 4.5 General government sector accounts (until net lending) Minimum requirement Recommended 4.6 Household sector accounts (until net lending) Minimum requirement Recommended 4.7 Non-profit institutions serving households sector accounts (until net lending) Minimum requirement Recommended Recommended Desirable Recommended Desirable Financial accounts 4.1 – 4.7 Financial accounts for all sectors Balance sheets and other changes in asset accounts Balance sheets, revaluation and other volume changes in asset accounts for all sectors Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA: Milestones Implementation milestones Complementary data systems Pre-SNA phases Basic data SNA-related data and development on production, turnover, consumption, investment, exports and imports Consumer Balance and producer price indices of payments goods and services account Monetary Milestone 1. Basic indicators of gross domestic product (GDP) - Final expenditures on GDP current and constant prices - GDP by industry at current and constant prices survey statistics Supply and use table worksheets Balance of payments: current, capital and financial accounts Government finance statistics (GFS) transaction accounts Milestone 2. Gross national income and other primary indicators Capital stock - For rest of the world, external account of primary incomes and current transfers GFS - Capital and financial accounts International statistics Quarterly investment position Regional transactions and stocks in assets and liabilities Monetary and financial statistics national accounts accounts Satellite accounts for environment and other satellite accounts Input-output analysis Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA: Milestones Implementation milestones Complementary data systems SNA-related data and development Milestone 3. Institutional sector accounts: first step: Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 for all institutional sectors Production account for general government Generation of income, Allocation of primary income, Secondary distribution income, Use of disposable income, Capital and financial accounts Milestone 4. Institutional sector accounts: intermediate step 1: for all institutional sectors Generation of income Allocation of primary income Secondary distribution of income Use of disposable income Capital accounts Milestone 5. Institutional sector accounts: intermediate step 2: for all institutional sectors Financial account Milestone 6. Institutional sector accounts: final step: for all institutional sectors Other changes in assets account Balance sheet Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA Question: Does your country’s reported national accounts Yes data currently include estimates for: Elements affecting the level of GDP Gross capital formation (GCF)/output 1. the entire defence expenditure incurred by government included in the GCF? 2. consumption of fixed capital measured on all government fixed assets (airfields, roads, hospitals, docks, dams and breakwaters and other forms of construction except structures) including military weapon systems? 3. the expenditure on Research and Development included in the output and GCF? 4. all (successful and unsuccessful) mineral exploration expenditure capitalized? 5. purchases of computer software expected to be used for more than a year included in GCF? 6. expenditure on software development on own account expected to be used for more than a year and for sale included in GCF and output? 7. the expenditure on all databases expected to be used for more than a year, whether purchased on the market or developed in-house, included in the GCF and output? No Partly na Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA Question: Does your country’s reported national accounts data currently include estimates for: 8. expenditure on entertainment, literary or artistic originals included in the GCF and on their development included in the output? 9. expenditure on valuables included in the GCF? 10. the natural growth of cultivated forests included in output in GCF? 11. the output of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) calculated on loans and deposits only using interest rates on deposits and loans and a reference rate of interest? 12. the output of FISIM allocated to users? 13. the production of all goods that are produced by households whether for sale or not —included in the output? 14. the activity of the own-account money lenders included in the output? 15. the value of output of goods and services produced by households and corporations for own final use, when estimated on cost basis, include a return to capital? 16. the output of non-life insurance services in the event of catastrophic losses estimated using adjusted claims and adjusted premium supplements? Yes No Partly na Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA Question: Does your country’s reported national accounts data currently include estimates for: 17. the output of the Central Bank estimated separately for financial intermediation services, monetary policy services and supervisory services overseeing financial corporations? 18. the unit undertaking purely ancillary activity, located in a geographically separate location from establishments it serves, treated as a separate establishment? 19. the output of the activity of non-autonomous pension funds and unfunded pension schemes separately recognised? Volume estimates 20. volumes estimated using a chaining procedure on an annual basis? Social contributions/insurance 21. unfunded social contributions (for sickness, unemployment, retirement etc.) by enterprises imputed as compensation of employees and included as contributions to social insurance? 22. non-life insurance estimates include premium supplements rather than being based just on premiums less claims? 23. life insurance estimates include premium supplements rather than being based just on premiums less claims? Yes No Partly na Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA Question: Does your country’s reported national accounts data currently include estimates for: Elements affecting GNI 24. reinvested earnings estimates included in the rest of the world account? 25. foreign workers’ remittances excluded from GNI? Elements not affecting the level of GDP/GNI Valuation of output 26.a output and value added measured at basic prices? a 26.b output and value added measured at producers’ prices? a 26.c value added measured at factor cost? a (not part of the 2008 SNA) 27. the goods for processing recorded on a net basis? Yes No Partly na Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA Question: Does your country’s reported national accounts Yes data currently include estimates for: Final consumption 28. government final consumption expenditure broken down into individual and collective consumption? Status of implementation of the 2008 SNA 29. the 2008 SNA has not been implemented in officially reported national accounts, when does the country plan to implement and release data based on the 2008 SNA? (Specify the year.) No Partly na Statement of Strategy Consists of: A strategic planning frame for the development of an economic statistics program that meets policy needs Set of actions to achieve statistical and institutional goals for the sustainable improvement of the economic statistics capacity and takes into account: Policy documents, NSDS, etc. Regional strategic frameworks for statistical capacity building Regulatory and institutional framework Statistical infrastructure Statistical operations Elements of a sound Statement of strategy /1 Mandate, is determined by national and regional policy objectives and underpinned by the regulatory and institutional framework Legal mandate (Statistical Act) International standards • UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics • 2008 SNA, BPM6, GFSM, ISIC Rev4 Mission statement describes the purpose, users, outputs, markets, philosophy and basic technology The efficient and timely dissemination of high quality national accounts and supporting economic statistics in response to policy needs in an interconnected regional and global economic environment Elements of a sound Statement of strategy /2 Values need to reflect the values and principles portrayed by the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics to produce useful high-quality data Statistical professionalism Independence and integrity Customers oriented services Respect and understanding for data suppliers Value for money Elements of a sound Statement of strategy /3 High-level objectives that represent the strategic accomplishments to be achieved Improving scope, quality and timeliness of economic statistics Minimizing response burden Increasing use of administrative data for statistical purposes Achieving cost effectiveness using best practices Raising public awareness and use of national accounts and economic statistics Elements of a sound Statement of strategy /4 Specific goals to be set in order to achieve the high-level objectives Compile national accounts according to milestone two of MRDS Develop a national hub for short-term economic statistics With required actions to be carried out: Regulatory and institutional framework – strengthening the functioning of NSS, its programming, management and performance Statistical infrastructure – strengthening of use of standards (2008 SNA), classifications (ISIC Rev 4), registers and frames Statistical operations – strengthening of data collection, compilation, dissemination and analysis For more information: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/stemplate.doc Tools for development of Statement of Strategy /1 Statistical System information - Country Fact Sheet to facilitate the assessment and assist in developing the statement of strategy Overview of the national policy priorities and national plans Overview of policy and statistical initiatives of international and regional organizations into a single framework Allows for collating information available at the national level and at various international organisations on the national statistics system For more information visit: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/cProfile.asp Tools for development of Statement of Strategy /2 Diagnostic tools aim at improving the scope, detail, frequency and quality of the basic economic and supporting statistics required for the compilation of SNA by: Providing a clear picture of the state of development of a national statistical system: infrastructure, production processes, data availability… Helping to set realistic and sustainable objectives in term of development of statistical capacities for the production of national accounts Assessing the gap between where we stand and where we want to be Allowing multilateral and bilateral donors to better design their technical assistance projects and enhance the coordination of their respective activities Tools for development of Statement of Strategy /3 UNSD proposes a generic diagnostic tool that: is based on the widely used CES Classification of Statistical Activities provides a structured presentation of statistical activities aimed at • collecting, producing and disseminating data, • developing standards, • harmonization and implementation of statistics. • Statistical activities are organized in five statistical domains allows assessment of economic activities in terms of: • This allows the Statistical productions process • Institutional organization and • Managerial aspects of official statistics For more information: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/WG4_20DiagnosticTool.pdf and http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/evaluation.doc Tools for development of Statement of Strategy /4 Other diagnostic tools have been developed that can complement or supplement the UNSD diagnostic tool UNECE/ESCAP/Eurostat/EFTA Global Assessment of National Statistical Systems: http://www.unece.org/statcoop/ga.html OECD Statistical System Assessments; e.g. Russia: http://www.oecd.org/std/Assessment-of-the-Statistical-System-and-Key-Statistics-of-theRussian-Federation.pdfssessments IMF Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes: Data Modules: http://dsbb.imf.org/pages/dqrs/ROSCDataModule.aspx Diagnostic tools and other statistical assessments should be ideally conducted on a regular basis in order to monitor progress and revise action plans Consolidation and implementation In order to successfully implement the 2008 SNA and related statistics strategy it is important to implement the following good practices The Statement of Strategy should be prepared in full consultation with major policy makers and other national and international stakeholders The Statement of Strategy should be an integral part of the existing and/or forthcoming national multi-year programs (e.g. NSDS) High-level objectives and implementation plans should be articulated in existing statistical work programs (annual or biennium) Assessment and diagnostic tools should be conducted on a regular basis in order to monitor progress and eventually update the work programs Consult colleagues and stakeholders prior to any international and regional events and brief them after (outcome, follow-up, actions…)