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Assessing the impact of Framework Programme social sciences and humanities research on policy: what do we know and where are we heading "Draft. Do not quote!" Nikos Kastrinos European Commission, DG RTD, Social Sciences, Humanities and Foresight Abstract There is an increasingly pressing need to evaluate the impact of social sciences and humanities research programmes on policy. The links between research programmes and policy making are multiple, complex and mediated by institutions, networks and scientific and policy-making communities. Furthermore, specific characteristics of social sciences and humanities, in institutional as well as content terms, have important implications for the ways in which European research programmes function in Europe’s research scene, and for the ways in which impact expectations are formed and materialise. The paper combines an analysis of the mechanisms of knowledge transfer in policy with an analysis of the ways in which the EU Framework Programme impacts on Europe’s science, economy, and society to frame a programme of enquiry into the impact of Framework Programme social sciences and humanities research on policy. Disclaimer All views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. 1. Introduction The European Union’s Framework Programme of Research and Development is founded on the obligation to support the Union’s industrial competitiveness as well as the design and implementation of its policies. Since the 4th Framework Programme (1994-1997) social sciences and humanities have been consistently and rapidly gaining support from the EU. Currently they constitute a substantial level of investment (in the latest discussions about €90M per year over the next 7 years) channelled through thematic programmes targeted on specific issues. At the same time the Union has been upgrading impact assessment and evaluation activities, with a view to improve its policy-making. Based on its White Paper on Good European Governance (COM(2001) 428 final) the Commission has produced a series of guidelines about a policy-making process that makes good use of ex ante impact assessment, real-time monitoring and ex-post evaluation (see for example: COM(2002) 276 final). The rising level of investment in social sciences and humanities and the increasing importance of impact assessment bring about a need to look at the impact of social sciences and humanities research. There is little tradition in ex post evaluation and impact assessment in the social sciences. Research evaluation activities developed in the 1980’s underpinned by the relative scarcity of funds which Ziman (1987) coined “science in a steady state”. In that period social sciences and humanities were not seen as important parts of the government research enterprise. At the European level around this time, when the Commission’s MONITOR programme was promoting an evaluation culture throughout Europe and illustrating its value by applying it to its own programmes, there were no substantial European programmes in the social sciences and humanities. The lack of tradition does not mean that the social sciences and humanities need to start from scratch. They can benefit from the experiences of natural sciences and engineering, and from the methods of impact assessment applied in technological programmes. There are two sets of challenges in this transfer of methods and approaches. The first, relates to the “methods to be transferred”. Technological programmes are typically assessed for their impact on innovation and economic competitiveness of enterprises (Vonortas and Hinze 2005). Social sciences and humanities research programmes are justified at the community level in terms of their support to policy. Thus assessment methods based on economic criteria and dimensions of impact may not apply. The second set of challenges for the use of traditional impact assessment approaches and methods relates to social sciences and humanities themselves and their links with policy. Social sciences and humanities comprise a rather diverse set of enterprises, which do not always relate harmoniously to each-other. They are predominantly national not only in the ways in which the research is organized but also in the definition of the subjects that they study. They are strongly associated with the institutionalisation of Universities in the model of Von Humboldt’s ideals, and thus they have a tendency to identify themselves with free enquiry and downgrade policy-relevant research. It is notoriously difficult to trace “links of influence” between social sciences and humanities research and economic, social and political developments (Georghiou et al 2002). Even when links can be traced, the attribution of influence is difficult and inescapably tenuous. And sometimes when influence can be ascertained, scientists do well to refuse responsibility for it, for as Davies et al (2005) remind us, impacts may also be negative. In a very touching speech Rom Harré described how he felt that a book, which he wrote with colleagues describing the ritual aspects of hooliganism, contributed to the de-ritualisation of sport related violence, and thus to its increased brutality1. In the face of such difficulties, advocates of social sciences and humanities research programmes make increasing use “impact events” to argue that the programmes make important contributions. The category of impact events includes “policy citations” (see EC 2003), workshops and conferences where researchers and practitioners meet and dialogue (Liberatore 2001), scholars in positions of public influence and case-studies showing influence circumstances (Commission on the Social Sciences 2003, British Academy 2004). In particular the British Academy (2004) and the Commission on the Social Sciences (2003) offer a rich collection of cases where researchers played a very important role in public debates, which have shaped policy. In all those cases the case of influence describes the scientist and not the research, and the links between programme intentions and impact are always very weak. The “impact events” are near to descriptions of the concept of spin-off The event was a workshop in Bruges on “social sciences for knowledge and decision-making” 28-28 June 2000, and the book in question was See Peter Marsh, Ely Rosser and Rom Harré, The Rules of Disorder, London, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1978 1 (Reppy; Ulrich 1988), reflecting the conclusion of the ASIF study (Georghiou et al 2002, p 322): that: “the demonstration of explicit socio-economic benefits from social science (..) research requires evaluators to follow long complex chains of events, but also, to be aware of unexpected consequences”. Impact events and unanticipated consequences can only be starting points for the assessment of the impact of European programmes in social sciences and humanities on policy. The reason is that the programmes aim to support policy, they design research agendas on the basis of policy-relevance, and they assess proposals on the basis of relevance criteria. Thus policy impacts cannot be coincidental in the way unanticipated consequences are. While designing “impact events” and “dissemination strategies” can be seen as an indicator of impact-intentions, this cannot be equated with impact. For the purposes of impact assessment, stories of impact need to be built around “intended consequences” and these are channelled through the relationship between policy and science. For the purposes of this paper, the framework in which intended consequences develop into policy-impact comprises the relationship between policy-making and social sciences and humanities. Critical in this framework is the interplay between scientific excellence and policy-relevance. This interplay is discussed in the next section with the help of two stories of impact events. The discussion leads to an analysis of the relations between social sciences, humanities and policy-making. This discussion follows the tradition of innovation studies, starting with the question of whether social sciences and humanities can be seen as sources of radical change in a Schumpeterian sense, which is discussed in section 3. The question is placed within a broad analogy of public intellectuals, who are seen as playing key roles in how social sciences and humanities affect society (see for example British Academy 2004) with Schumpeterian (1934) entrepreneurs who bring to society fruits of science through innovation. From radical change the paper then turns, in section 4, to social sciences and humanities in their potential to be involved in incremental change through policy-learning processes. Section 5 discusses the diffusion of social sciences and humanities knowledge looking at its characteristics as well as the ways in which epistemic communities and networks of learning may connect scientific and policy institutions. This discussion provides a series of hypotheses and stylized understandings which section 6 relates to the general arguments about the impact of the socioeconomic impacts of the Framework Programme. Section 7 uses our fairly limited knowledge of how the EU programmes have affected the social sciences and humanities community to develop impact assessment questions and perspectives, while section 9 concludes with the impact on policy. 2. Events of impact: social scientists affecting policy In March 2000, Maria Joao Rodrigues, the then Chief Economist of the office of the Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Guterres who was presiding at the European Council, organized a small conference in Lisbon. A number of the academics involved in the conference had long been involved in European research programmes. The conference has been seen by some as the launch pad of the Lisbon Strategy document, which was approved by the heads of State and Government and became the key political declaration on Europe’s economic future (see Rodrigues 2002)2. Europe’s social sciences and humanities community celebrated the document. In 2001 the Commission produced the largest ever international research programme in the social sciences and humanities, with the title “Citizens and governance in a knowledge based society”. Maria Joao Rodrigues became known as an architect of the Lisbon Strategy 3and was appointed to lead the European Commission’s Advisory Group for Social Sciences and Humanities. In the beginning of 2002, in response to a call for expressions of interest, the Commission received more than 1200 proposals to implement the theme. The generic story is as follows. Scientists who take part in a research programme produce knowledge that plays an important role in setting a policy agenda. The policy agenda plays an important role in setting a research agenda in the social sciences and humanities and the social science community responds enthusiastically. This can be now compared to another story. On 21October 2005 the Prime Minister of the UK, Tony Blair, reportedly brainstormed with 10 leading academics from across Europe in preparation for the Hampton Court informal European Council Summit. Less than half of the academics present had taken part in European research programmes4. Both European Summits dealt with the future of Europe’s economy, in both cases academic scholars from the social sciences and humanities were strongly involved, and in both cases some of those academics have been supported by 2 Of the 9 contributors to the edited volume 8 were in some way associated with the TSER programme. See CORDIS 20-10-2005: Focusing on Lisbon fundamentals: http://aoi.cordis.lu/article.cfm?article=1487&lang=EN 3 European programmes. However, the difference in the number of the scholars involved which is related to the programme raises some questions: Could it be that, between 2000 and 2005, the European programme lost its excellence, its relevance and its potential for impact? How would the difference in the sources of expertise affect the difference in the outcomes between the two Summits? One could argue that the events show that the policy-relevance of the programme and its potential for policy impact declined between 2000 and 2005, although, from a dominant agenda-setting influence in a European Summit, the only way is down. In terms of excellence, there are two interesting sets of questions arising. One is empirical and concerns the criteria whereby expert advisers are chosen and whether these criteria provide results that are consistent with citation ratings and scientific reputations. The other question concerns the relationship between scientific excellence and the quality of the outcomes of policy-making based on scientific advice. Lal (2002) argues that the contributions of sciences could be measured exactly by this measure. This is for historians to argue about. In their current institutional set up, social sciences and humanities take no responsibility for policy, neither for design nor for implementation5. Social sciences and humanities are concerned about the quality of science and its excellence as internal matters, and its “impact” primarily as internal but increasingly also as an external affair (see Davies at al 2005). The more science becomes concerned with external impacts, the more scientific excellence becomes involved in dealing with such impacts, either as a prerequisite for impact (e.g. as a criterion to be fulfilled by policy advisors) or as a guarantor of quality of the advice (e.g. in risk assessments that affect laws) or both. Excellent science should by definition have more impact than less excellent science, but one cannot use the impact of science to assess its excellence, because the impact mechanisms and processes may not be functioning as well as they should in all cases. A great deal of the effort of this paper is in highlighting those impact mechanisms, the ways in which they may be structured and function between social sciences, humanities and policy-making. It is the argument of this paper that the relationships between social sciences and humanities and policy need to be carefully considered in framing the enquiry into the impact of the Framework Programme. 4 As report in European Voice 20-26 October 2005by Dana Spinant and Tim King Some believe that this is where social sciences differ from natural sciences which take responsibility for their arguments, predictions and their applications (see Lal 2002). 5 Now impact assessment, as depicted in figure 1, can address the following questions: How much impact does the programme have on “science”? (Arrow A in figure 1). How much impact does science have on policy? (Arrow B in figure 1). How much of that impact can the programme claim? (A/B * 100 %). Of course the programme has characteristics other than it financing science and thus there are impacts which arise outside the scientific nature of the programme (arrow C in Figure 1). Those impacts will not be addressed in this paper, not because they can be assumed to be negligible, but because they concern predominantly integration effects on mechanisms and processes of research policy-making (see Georghiou et al 1993, Kastrinos 1998, Patricio 2005). Figure 1: An impact assessment framework starting from the programme Science A C Research Programme B Policy There are a number of simplifications in the above scheme, most obviously ones concerning the directions of impact. From a programme perspective it is important to understand that these are the directions of impact that are most interesting and important, even if they are diminished or reinforced by influences in the other direction. This is the broad impact assessment tradition in which this paper will develop. 3. Social sciences and humanities and radical change One aspect of great importance in the study of learning and change is the dialectic between events and processes. Events have the power to focus our attention and make us remember the importance of changes in the histories we live through. The collapse of the Berlin Wall and the invention of the horseless carriage, are events which signify important processes of change and through this process the events acquire a timelessness and instantaneity. They develop boundaries around them, and historians and analysts argue about these boundaries. From this perspective people often distinguish between important events that signal “revolutions” and less important events that are part of continuous “evolutions”. There is always a lot of debate about the level of unpredictability and change that needs to be attributed to an event before it becomes part of a “revolution”. Yet, study of change always looks first at obvious change phenomena i.e. revolutions. Schumpeter attributed economic change to entrepreneurs who destabilise the system with their innovations. Those innovations then diffuse through the system as imitators follow the example of entrepreneurs. Innovations were important “events” that destabilized the economic system. The source of innovations was seen as being outside the sphere of the economy (at least in early Schumpeterian papers see Philips 1971). Rosenberg (1976) argued that as a result of the Schumpeterian heritage, we neglect important aspects of the innovative process, we overemphasize the contributions of science and we neglect important processes of adaptation and diffusion. In a similar vein Freeman and Louça (2002) argued that the myth of the heroic scientists and entrepreneurs was responsible for important misunderstandings in economic history. In short, in the study of economic change, attention has shifted from “major events” towards “processes” that are much more piecemeal, mundane parts of everyday life. . The view of heroic technological innovations inducing radical changes in the economy and society is a powerful modernist vision, holding strong still today. For example, the inventioninnovation part of Schumpeter’ (1939) s business cycle is widely known as the “linear model of innovation”, and is still today the cornerstone of much of science policy around the world. The idea that developments in science and technology underpin a great deal of change in the economy, society and policy, coupled with the image of disinterested scientists discovering the laws of nature, provides a legitimate source of potentially radical innovation in society and policy. In the political arena, this dialectic between revolution and evolution has rarely been analysed to greater depths than in Popper’s “Poverty of Historicism” (1957). Popper argued that the belief in historical destiny, which underpins many revolutionary movements, is “sheer superstition”. Utopian movements are likely to fail in their predictions for a number of reasons. One such reason is that they cannot consider future knowledge about the natural world and future technology. Thus, promises about a better future may always be rendered obsolete by future technology. For Popper (1957) knowledge is emancipating, and he argues that it is impossible to control what people think and it is thus impossible to centralize knowledge. For these reasons, Karlsson (2005) argues that there is a long-term decline in the role of visions in political debate and an increasingly differentiated society. This is a powerful argument which, nonetheless, deserves some discussion. First, scientific discovery and technological change do not only have emancipating consequences but also contributes to all kinds of new risks, new inter-dependencies (Beck 1999), and new kinds of governance questions (Collingridge 1980). It is fair to say that scientific and technological change have destabilising consequences for policy, and that governments exercise some control over science although science is not fully controlled by governments. Governments often set up intermediary agencies to control and direct science and technology towards desired directions (Johnston and Gummett 1979, Braun 1993). The conquest of space, safe nuclear energy, and public health, are amongst the missions of such agencies, representing important policy visions with positive social connotations. Even through such agencies, government control over science has been limited. Agencies depend on science for the knowledge of their staff (Braun 1993) and they “are obliged to proceed on a narrow path that is framed by the long-term time-horizon of basic research in the scientific system, the social and institutional organisation of research as well as the cognitive abilities of scientific communities” (p 155). It is not obvious that Popper (1957) considered social sciences and humanities as emancipating knowledge about the natural world, or simply introvert thoughts of individuals that cannot be controlled by government. Yet, there is no doubt that social sciences and humanities share some of the disruptive potential of natural sciences and technologies, and that governments often set-up agencies to direct and control them and to benefit from their development (see Amann 2001, Braun and Benninghoff 2003, Caswill 2003). There is also no doubt that, following the collapse of Communism, scholars are becoming less and less fascinated by the prospects of generating normative implications from research results (Karlsson 2005). For example Louis Uchitelle, quoting Steven Levitt and Arjo Krahmer, reports in The New York Times that “.. fewer students than in the 1980’s have read the works of ... Adam Smith, ... Alfred Marshall and John Maynard Keynes. These eminences painted the economy on a broad scale and were far more engaged than modern economists in political choice. Research, theory, anecdotal observation and policy prescriptions were much more intertwined. This was also true for recent Nobel laureates like Milton Friedman, Paul Samuelson, James Tobin and Robert Solow, all of whom were young during the depression.... ‘we have lost our optimism that the tools of economics can be used to manage the economy’ Levitt said and we have moved to a much more “micro” view of the world’”6 This reluctance is a blow to the role of “public intellectual” as a source of radical change in society, and it is a powerful one in a period when there are widespread warnings about the dangers of over-reliance on distinguished academic specialists “since, with the best will in the world, what they provide is one particular interpretation of the available evidence”. (Amann 2001 p 74). Yet, it should not be understood that the potential of social sciences and humanities to nurture ideas that could bring about radical change can now be dismissed. It could well be that the focus on research agendas of lesser consequence than changing the world, will emancipate the social scientists and humanists and provide them with the space to claim more responsibility for the impacts of their work. 4. Policy learning, policy-making and social sciences and humanities The standard starting reference for policy-making and policy learning is the “rational actor” model (Richardson and Jordan 1979). In “rational-actor” settings, learning takes place through experimentation, within action-feedback loops. The simplest and most powerful example of a feedback mechanism for democratic governments is the next election. To start the accumulation of learning experiences, there are problems that need solutions. To follow the example above, sets of such problems and proposed solutions are defined in pre-election manifestos. Rational actors define the problem, compare solutions and take action to solve the problem. In practice, actors are recognizably bounded in their rationality, feedback and consultation take many forms, and ad hoc trial and error processes by different actors involved in collective policy-making create a process of “muddling through”, which from the 6 “Yound American economists shun policy wars”, The New York Times, 26 January 2006 outside seems to lack rationality (Lindbloom 1959). Models of policy making of this nature are called incrementalist models (ibid.). The incrementalist description of policy-making as muddling through is very powerful in the ways in which it depicts people’s experience of policy-making. At the same time, by giving primacy to the interests of different actors, the description suffers from a lack of normative implications. For example, Lindbloom and Woodhouse (1993) find that policy-making is “insufficiently intelligent and insufficiently responsive”, and argue that it should make more use of analysis and more democratic participation. The process of making policy-making more intelligent is close to ideas of policy-learning as discussed by May (1992) and Barun and Benninghoff (2003). Braun and Benninghoff (2003 p. 1850) see policy learning as involving a “confrontation between ‘power’... and ‘puzzling’”. This does not mean that rationality is absent from the process of interplay between power and puzzling, between political interests and substantive content. As Braun and Benninghoff put it: “the problem solving discourse is constrained by interests but interests are also tempered by their incorporation in the discourse process” (2003 p 1862). May (1992) distinguishes between political learning which concerns policy processes and prospects and takes place within advocacy contexts, and policy-learning which concerns the construction of policy problems, the means to address these problems and their evaluation. According to May (1992) policy learning involves instrumental learning and social learning. The former leads to actors becoming more intelligent about the instruments that they use, while the latter concerns the broad rethinking about the problems addressed and the means to address them. The social learning element of policy learning has been emphasized by the literature on policy-transfer, which describes a process of diffusion of knowledge from one policy domain to the next and from one country to another (Kingdon 1984, Rose 1991, Stone 2001). Rose argues that policy learning is social learning that takes place within “epistemic communities”. Such communities involve embedded ideas about causal relations between policy, collective and individual actions, and they are fundamental for the ways in which policy ideas transfer between places and policy areas. Yet even in such communities, policy-makers learn primarily from experience, from observing others and from discussing with colleagues in networks which concern policy-knowledge (Stone 2004). Rose (2001 p 15) juxtaposes “lesson-drawing models” to “theory-based models”. “The fundamental difference between a lesson drawing model and an economic model is that the former is abstracted from an actual programme whereas an economic model can be produced by deductions from pure theory. A lesson-drawing model is therefore about what is7; its content is not defined by reasoning from ‘landless’ axioms but by contextual observation”. The juxtaposition of the models used by scientists to the models used by practitioners is found also in the field of technology (e.g. see Mackenzie and Wajcman 1985). In that field the models of scientists have been increasingly important for ways engineers carry out their work. A similar phenomenon is observable in economic and policy life, where models of “scientists” who study organization become ever more powerful shapers of the practice of organized life (see Callon 1998, Mackenzie 2005). Thus, it is possible that the contribution of “theory”, which is so dear to the hearts of humanists and social scientists (Nowotny 2005), to policy-learning is (and can be) much more important than analysts seem to consider. In addition, instrumental policy learning often involves government science, which includes social sciences and humanities. These sciences often generate information for use in policy, such as indicators and feedback on policy-choices (Kingdon 1984). A caveat here is that not all government science is “instrumental policy learning”, as some routinely carried out government research activities are part of policy implementation but not part of policy improvement processes. Furthermore, a lot of policy improvement processes are not effective in changing policy, which according to May (1992) is a key question in determining whether policy learning has taken place. However, a great deal of applied research commissioned by government in the form of consultancy is part of policy improvement processes and thus can be seen as a corollary of government investment in instrumental policy-learning. To summarize, in incrementalist policy-making substantive rationality does not disappear but holds a very important place, and is supported by theory and evidence, as well as research endeavours which may be parts of government science, or commissioned consultancy. Social sciences and humanities can be greatly involved in this exercise and to some extent are, 7 emphasis from the original through from a distance. It is rather curious that observers of policy-learning continue to describe it as an empiricist exercise based on craft models of communication between practitioners, rather than as an exercise based on scientific research. To understand why, one has to look at the characteristics of knowledge produced by social sciences and humanities research and at the composition and functioning of the communities and networks of practitioners where policy knowledge takes shape. 5. Policy-learning communities and the characteristics of social sciences and humanities knowledge In many ways the process whereby knowledge diffuses in policy-making communities resembles the diffusion of technological innovation in the economy (see Rogers 1962): through imitation and adaptation (DiMaggio and Powell 1983), complementary resources and skills (Teece 1986), with the pattern of diffusion depending on the innovation, the adopters and the environment in which it takes place (Stone 2001). Issues of transmissibility of knowledge, the media used, trustworthiness of the source and opportunity (see Liberatore 2001) are as important as issues of usability, user-friendliness and usefulness in particular contexts, requirements for complementary assets and competencies, short-term performance advantages and competitive gains, as well as interest in terms of allowing the development of interesting longer terms agendas. According to Solesbury (1994) social sciences and humanities have five defining characteristics which affect their capacity to communicate their messages to policy-makers and thus to affect policy. They are “mundane”, “contingent”, “reflexive”, “non-cumulative” and “non-appropriable”. Because of these qualities, communicating the message is particularly difficult. Mundane messages are often seen as no more than common sense. Contingent messages are not generalisable. Reflexive messages tell you more about the sender than about the subject of the message. Contingency and reflexivity combined undermine the accumulation of knowledge, and as a result such knowledge is not exploited in innovation process in government and industry. Solesbury (1994) concludes that: because of these characteristics social sciences and humanities knowledge is a public good, transferred in the public domain; social sciences are very present in society and media and that often social scientists are often uncomfortably drawn into public debate; and processes of knowledge transfer are not unidirectional from producers to users, but rather should be interactive, continuous and involve a dialogue between sophisticated speakers and sophisticated listeners, something in the spirit of what Gibbons et al (1994) coined “mode 2” research programmes. On the basis of a similar analysis, although with different emphasis, Manicas (2003) argues that social sciences suffer a credibility-deficit which undermines their effectiveness in playing an important role in processes of innovation in the economy, society and policy. This credibility deficit, he attributes to specific institutional choices of the social sciences, such as: the radicalisation of debates about the sciences themselves; the use of boring textbooks; the lack of concern with the interest and quality of students; the increasing specialization in narrow fields; and the loss of the terrain of public debate to professional journalists. Manicas’s (2003) credibility deficit is consistent with most points made by Solesbury (1994) about the nature of social sciences and humanities knowledge. Where the two disagree is on whether the epistemic communities of social scientists and humanists are too closed to have any impact (Manicas 2003) or too open to be distinguished from the broader society (Solesbury 1994). The result in both cases is sub-optimal exploitation of social sciences and humanities knowledge, either because the cost of translation is too high or because it is indistinguishable from common sense. Rather than arguing about the ineffectiveness of social science knowledge in addressing its messages to policy, Weingart (2001) describes a gradual opening of politics to science and of science to politics, key players in which are scientists-advisors, whose task is to translate scientific knowledge into inputs in policy. He describes a process whereby policy-makers discover that science can be a political resource and compete with each-other about the latest research-based knowledge. This exposes the political elements in scientific debate and knowledge and undermines confidence in science itself “...the competition for, and inherently inflationary use of, scientific advice for legitimating (and even instrumental) purposes is self-destructive and de-legitimating. The paradox arises because, in principle, the competition for the latest, and therefore supposedly most compelling scientific knowledge, drives recruitment of expertise far beyond the realm of consensual knowledge right up to the research frontier where knowledge claims are uncertain, contested and open to challenge” (p 85). An interesting aspect in Weingart (2001) is that the process is driven by the effort of policymakers to appropriate science, and is fed-back by the effort of scientists to exploit the interest of policy-makers. Thus, the two communities, the scientists and policy-makers become entangled in a web of mutual influence and support, a kind of hybrid community, or what Rip (2001) called a “network of joint learning”. Apparently this entanglement creates problems for both policy and scientific institutions. Before discussing this in more detail, it is worth reviewing two ways to involve social sciences and humanities in policy learning without creating a hybrid community, namely action-research and evidence-based policy. Action-research is an umbrella term for research methods that use the research process to improve practice. Action research is participative and the research problem is constructed iteratively between the practitioners and the researchers, who collectively construct the solution through the research process. Action research is not “mode 2” research in the social sciences and humanities. In action research the contribution of research to policy is primarily procedural. The authority of the scientists stems from procedural knowledge rather than authoritative knowledge of the subject matter of the problem at hand. In this setting, the knowledge of the scientists is exploitable through the professional recognition of the scientists’ skills in process organization. The community of “action researchers” can only be a professional community and requires some form of professional regulation. At the same time the community in which substantive issues are discussed can be as broad and pluralistic as the concept of “public debate”. A completely different approach comes from the recent UK initiative on “evidence based policy”. The core idea here is to develop a service that uses research in the social sciences and humanities to derive evidence about the potential and actual efficacy of different policy choices, and to use this evidence to guide policy-choices. This implies that scientific evidence is usable outside the context in which they were generated, and somekind of a process of review can provide the requisite validation, if an appropriate organizational structure is established (see Amann 2001). The relations between the process of “deriving evidence” and “scientific authority” are critical for the system, which could evolve as a knowledge management IT tool or as a corporatist authority for the governance of social sciences and humanities research which talks to policy in the name of science8. 8 Amann (2001) describes it as an information system but gives it corporatist governing qualities Both action-research and “evidence-based policy” have, so far, limited following. One reason for the limited following may be that, in both cases, there are important issues to the appropriation of substantive knowledge by the scientists who create it. Researchers are unlikely to be satisfied with the role of procedural councilor implied in "action research", whilst they would probably be suspicious of the corporatist spirit of evidence-based policy. In the process of interaction described by Weingart (2001) competition between scientists for policy influence is an important part of the story. “Policy discourse can create linearity after the fact” and “(social) scientists can push for a linear model in arguing for the importance of their insights in creating or modifying policy. The evolution of evidence and policy in relation to controversial issues (can be best understood) as a network of data, interpretations, theories, values, interests and strategic positioning, which eventually stabilises and creates robust evidence and justified policy. This understanding can be extended to evidence and policy more generally; it is an evolving network rather than the unidirectional relationship suggested by ‘evidence-based’. Such evolving networks are the carriers of joint learning.... Joint learning is open-ended (nobody knows the right answers) and the process can be traced as increasing articulation and alignment, and new processes of quality control need to be found” (Rip 2001 p 97) The new processes of quality control need to satisfy the evaluations of scientists about scientific quality of knowledge as well as the evaluations of policy-makers for the usefulness of the knowledge offered. And in such conditions the networks of joint learning may evolve into joint epistemic communities with their own institutions and learning processes. Such communities may not be as broad and pluralistic as action research or as regulated and holistic as evidence-based policy. They may evolve in specific fields and topics through specialist journals, training and epistemic institutions and research programmes9. 9 A classic community of this nature is the one dealing with evaluation of research, which involves practicioners with policy-making roles and practitioners with academic roles, and its own journals, methodological discussions, authorities etc. 6. Evaluating the impact of the framework programme: what do we know and where are we going? In the classic form of evaluating the impacts of the framework programme, the evaluator will look for induced changes that could be attributed to the inputs. The most frequently met approach is to ask beneficiaries: for the benefits that they accrued from their participation, whether these benefits met with their expectations and how they would contrast the situation after their participation in the programme, with a counterfactual situation in which they would not have participated. The difference between the perceived and the counterfactual is called additionality, and it is the most widely used measure of impact (see Vonortas and Hinze 2005). The induced change may be quantitative, for example at the level of investment, and/or structural or behavioural (Buisseret et al 1995). This is the approach that has been applied to the Framework programmes. Research has found that participants value the funding that they receive as well as the cooperative links which they form through the projects. Through these two sets of inputs people, organisations and institutions change their cognitive and social outlook and become more open-minded, and thus more able to use competencies and assets that they did previously did not have access to, information about or authority on10. Of course the assessment needs to compare the additional benefit to the cost of the programme. The argument here goes as follows. If the additional private benefit for the participants was higher than the additional private cost, then there would be no need for the public programme, as participants would finance the projects themselves through market mechanisms. Thus, the public benefit must be over and above the sum of private benefits accrued. It must be said here that the private benefit from the additional investment is also probabilistic, as it requires innovation, competitiveness and improved performance. However 10 This is perhaps an unfair reduction of a great deal of insight from a predominantly management literature on the benefits of R&D cooperation. For example, Guy et al (2005) used 19 different indicators to examine the impact of FP5 projects on participants, 18 of which fall comfortably under the category “open-mindedness” (the 19th was “cost-reduction”). the important point is that the public benefit must be over and above the additionality of the programme. There have been a number of hypotheses as to how the public benefit materialises. A first hypothesis is that the Framework Programme imposes a workable contractual standard in Europe for collaborative endeavours and thus reduces dramatically the transaction costs involved in collaborative R&D. A second hypothesis rests on the notion that knowledge, and especially technological knowledge, is an impure public good, and as such it is best appropriated within communities (or networks) of a particular size. Watkins (1991) using this theory argued that Framework Programme projects and programmes help communities of practice approximate this optimal size for the appropriation of technological knowledge. A similar hypothesis is that the Framework Programme has provided for increased but controlled variety of technological options in Europe, through promoting inter-institutional cooperation and links. Yet another hypothesis could relate to the limited elasticity of R&D employment in companies (Hall 2002). Because of the importance of tacit knowledge in R&D organization, companies are reluctant to hire and fire R&D personnel to compensate for fluctuations in their turnover. An argument can thus be advanced that the flexibility in the labour market for researchers promoted by the Framework Programme, has helped both researchers to become more adaptable (by virtue of being more open-minded) as well as companies train occasional and future R&D personnel. How do these hypotheses relate to social sciences and humanities? To start we have to clarify that there seems to be very little private R&D investment in social sciences and humanities, and thus the issue of additionality does not really apply. Then the benefits from the Framework Programme seem to concern predominantly industry and its relations with science and thus not evidently the social sciences and humanities. Yet, we know that researchers in the social sciences and humanities enjoy the benefits of open-mindedness brought about by the funding for research and the international collaboration involved (Kuhn and Remoe 2005). Thus one could look for the ways in which this open-mindedness may affect the networks and communities that are formed, and ways in which the characteristics of those networks and communities affect the performance of the institutions involved. The study reported in Kuhn and Remoe (2005) illustrated some of the structural effects of the programmes, highlighting the different ways in which comparative research has been pursued and how these have been building a European research community concerned with European issues. The study examined the basic characteristics of the programme: international collaboration, interdisciplinarity and policy-relevance and provided the richest, so far, source of evidence about the mechanisms of impact of the Framework programme on social sciences and humanities, and on the way in which they are organized. Insights from this study can be used to frame questions about public benefit as well as policy influence. 7. The impact of the framework programme on social sciences and humanities Kuhn and Remoe (2005) considered that “scientific excellence” was an ex ante criterion which had been applied in the evaluation of proposals. Ex post assessment of scientific performance can look into the scientific reputations of participants and their teams before and after the programme, the careers of individual scientists, and the impact of their work on the scientific state of the art. Indeed the technical and methodological aspects of such a project would be quite complex but in principle the scientific quality of research can be ascertained. For example, there is some discussion about whether results can be attributed to programmes or simply to the implementing people and institutions, but there is a consensus that the research team is an appropriate level of analysis and thus the extent to which the programme has been part of the funding sources of successful teams can be an appropriate method of attribution (see Laredo and Callon 1990, Laredo 2001). Through explorations of systematic relationships between participation if the programme and the impact of teams it is feasible to acquire a picture of the impact of the programme on the “state of the art” in science. It is important to mention that such an enquiry cannot answer questions of output-additionality and attribution, i.e. it would still not be possible to say what the state of the art would have been without the programme. However, it would provide a solid understanding of the relative influence of the programme, which could then be compared with the relative influence of other programmes, allowing thus some form of benchmarking (see Kastrinos 2001). In exploring the impact on the state of the art, one issue that stands out is the belief that comparative research is more incisive, and provides findings of higher validity and reliability than non-comparative research, especially in relation to policy relevant questions. Kuhn and Weidemann (2005) show that comparative research is at the heart of European concepts of trans-nationality, distinguishing between three types: of research projects: country case-studies; country case-studies combined with cross-country thematic analyses; and thematic analyses involving sub- or meta- country-level units of comparison. A key element of the quality of comparative research is the validity and reliability of the comparison. This depends very much on the existence or not of comparative (and thus comparable) data-sets. The extent to which European projects generate comparative data-sets is an important empirical question, which may underpin the disparity between expectations of impact and reality, at least for the researchers interviewed by Kuhn and Weidemann (2005) who complement their analysis of trans-nationality with an analysis of the problems of comparison associated with linguistic diversity. Genuinely comparative data will be a major achievement of European research in terms of usefulness (see Forbes and Abrams 2004). The award of the 2005 Descartes prize to the European Social Survey, and the political importance given to the discussion about data in the US, the UK and also in Europe point in that direction11. 8. From impact on science to impact on policy: policy relevance and joint learning As part of the same study, Greco et al (2005) provide an analysis of policy relevance in projects as involving five distinct discourses: “knowledge for data and model production”: this kind of research takes place within models applied in policy, and fits well with May’s (1992) instrumental for policylearning; “knowledge for policy suggestions”; this kind of projects aimed at reframing policy issues in ways that were meaningful to policy makers but different from the dominant ones; “knowledge for complexity reduction”: this kind of research aimed at reducing the complexity of the world through theory led models (exemplifying Rose’s (2001) distinction between theory based models and policy lesson-drawing models. “knowledge for socially relevant purposes”; this kind of research aimed at responding to the needs of broader communities and involve them in social learning processes; and “knowledge for knowledge production”; this discourse was about the distinctiveness of the scientific enterprise from policy-learning. These five discourses, which were not necessarily project-specific, reflect the picture drawn from the policy-learning discussion. Two distinct communities that could communicate and interact at the levels of both “theory” and “evidence”, yet do not. Considering that the evidence in Kuhn and Remoe (2005) comes from studying researchers, this is strong evidence that, at least at the European level, communities of practice spanning social sciences, humanities and policy-learning are not common, and there is a lack of institutions and real efforts that could bridge social science and policy-learning. An alternative interpretation may be that the joint learning networks of European Union policies do not necessarily involve the coordinators of research projects, who gave some evidence of being frustrated by this situation (ibid.). Under this interpretation, European research projects need to perform simultaneously in two respects in order to become parts of “joint learning” processes. The first is scientific quality and the second is illustrated usefulness. Scientific quality and illustrated usefulness are necessary, but not sufficient conditions for “joint learning” in networks that involve researchers and policy-makers. First of all, the network has to be somehow constituted. In this area, Kuhn and Remoe (2005) argue, EU programmes have promised scientists a lot, but not delivered. It is also an area where there are continuing discussions and experimentations with different forms and initiatives. A promising recent discussion concerns “societal platforms”, wherein stakeholders and researchers would articulate joint research agendas. Although there are high hopes for this type of processes, the fundamental problems associated with the limited appropriability of knowledge will affect the commitment of stakeholders and will not be easy to overcome. However, the ex ante character of societal platforms (as dialogue spaces before the research) would mean that impact assessment considerations will need to be formed rather differently. Depending on established communities, networks and processes of joint learning, the impact may differ substantially between countries, between policy areas and policy institutions. Yet, as policy-makers learn from one another, the programme may have substantial impact indirectly. For example, it could be that that the evidence-based-policy mechanism in the UK, some programme findings contribute substantially to a policy change in the UK, which is then imitated elsewhere. Following the rationale of Watkins (1991) this may be an efficient way of managing knowledge and policy-learning from social sciences and humanities at European 11 The prospects for comparative data sets are to be discussed in a seminar organized in ESOF 2006 jointly by the EC and the US NSF on “big social science: a transatlantic perspective” level. On the one hand, the diversity of possibilities for impact increases the possibility of research-based policy innovation, and on the other hand, where an all inclusive dialogue and a coordinated process of research-based policy-learning would create information overload and “congestion” phenomena. In terms of impact assessment such “spin-off” type phenomena are very difficult to capture, require particular effort at documentation as well as research-friendly citation practices. EC (2003) showed that it is feasible to illustrate the existence of research citation by policy documents, but it is very difficult to say anything reliable about the citation practices of policy-makers. A more reliable but also less attributive method is to employ co-word analysis (Callon et al 1983). With the help of social network analysis software, co-word analysis is much easier these days then when it was first advocated (cite the dictionary project). Co-word analysis maps text as a network between words that are linked with links of co-occurrence in a text. Such maps may represent knowledge development as is indicated by scientific texts, (for example research reports), which could be compared with maps of programmatic texts as well as maps of policy papers. (The diffusion of the practice of “green papers” and “white papers” in Europe may be very helpful in this respect). As texts are characterized by the time of publication, comparisons in time between maps may show directions of influence and uncover the networks of “joint learning” in the sense that Rip (2001) used the word. Such an exercise would also allow the assessment of the impact of “important events” and place dialogue initiatives in context. Needless to say the combination of data on spin-offs, events, and cognitive linkages in time would constitute a dream machine for impact assessment. Yet, it would miss the potentially very important “labour-market” effects of the programme, which are not included in the discussion of scientific quality. There is an urgent need to examine the training effects of the Framework Programme, its contribution to the creation of a European community of flexible and open-minded young researchers, and the career paths of those researchers. It is primarily through people that the experience of trans-national research affects the ways institutions think, learn and perform, and it is though links between people that networks of individuals which engage in joint learning are formed. Are the links between researchers from different countries of today, the policy-learning networks of the future? The more senior managers and policy-makers are formed through such networks, or are trained by people involved in such networks, the more likely they are to learn from social sciences and humanities research. In 1978 Haas at al. interviewed a number of scientists, mostly physicists, who worked in international organisations, asking them whether they found physics useful in their work. People were evenly divided, with about half of the respondents believing that their scientific background helps them a lot with the analysis of the situations they meet at work. Almost 30 years later physicists have become much rarer in international organisations, which are increasingly staffed with social scientists and people with humanistic education. It would be interesting to know how many of them find that their studies have been helpful (as compared to the physicists of Haas et al (ibid)), and how many of them still read academic journals that impressed them during their postgraduate studies. 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