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Science, innovation and power: an
NGO perspective on agricultural
development in sub-Saharan
Africa
Dr Steve Jennings
Oxfam GB
Overview
 Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa
 How change and innovation happen
 A change that needs to happen ... shared but
differentiated responsibilities between academia and
NGOs?
African agriculture: a failure ...
African agriculture: a failure ...
5000
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
0
1960
Cereal yield (kg per hectare)
4500
Year
Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)
East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)
Latin America & Caribbean (all income levels)
South Asia
Source: FAO
African agriculture: a failure ... or a success?
African agriculture: a failure ... or a success?
Maize production in Malawi
4000
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Year
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
0
1961
Production (1000MT)
3500
Source: FAO
African agriculture: challenges now




Agriculture accounts for 65% of full-time employment in Africa,
and 25–30% of GDP (The Future of Food and Farming, 2011).
96% of agricultural area in sub-Saharan Africa is rainfed (World
Bank 2008)
Low profitability and high risks discourage farmers from
investing in land and water management – mixed livelihoods
strategies are the norm
A 1% increase in agricultural yield translates into a 0.6-1.2
decrease in absolute poor (Thirtle et al., 2001)
African agriculture: challenges ahead





Scarcity of resources
Volatility
New dynamics
Feeding the 9bn
... Implies massive and sustained change in African
agriculture
And we already know what to do ...
Or do we ...
Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming (2011). Final Project Report.
The Government Office for Science, London.
Can policy makers reduce food waste?
 Some policy instruments:
– Incentives to not waste and disincentives to waste
– Investments in infrastructure and markets
 Some areas that policy won’t change readily:
– Personal and cultural attitudes and beliefs to food
– The vested interests in selling more
– The reasons why investment hasn’t already been
made in infrastructure and markets
Much of this change involves shifting power over
resources and decisions
How change happens: the abolition of slavery
1780 - Half a million
African slaves work on the
sugar plantations of British
colonies
1807 - British Parliament
bans the slave trade
1838 - slavery banned
altogether: 800,000 slaves
of the British Empire win
their freedom
How was the change brought about?
Waves of slave rebellion in America
and Caribbean; Haiti becomes first
independent black republic in 1804
Individuals and unlikely coalitions: the
Anglican preacher Thomas Clarkson,
MP William Wilberforce, Olaudah
Equiano (ex slave), the Quakers,
some prominent industrialists
Dynamics of change
Cumulative and
Sequential
Chaotic
Events, tipping
points and
lightbulb
moments
Path dependence
Demonstration
effects
Accumulation of
forces
Components of change




Institutions - culture, ethnicity,
religion, attitudes and beliefs.
Civil service, judiciary,
electoral democracy,
essential services,
Agents - social movements,
elites, leaders, private sector,
media
Context - technology,
environment, demographics,
globalization
Events - wars, disasters,
confrontations
How painful is the change for different groups?
Drivers v blockers (opposed to change) v shifters
(could go either way)
So what does this tell us about reducing waste?

In rich countries (waste end loaded), it may well need
– a huge shock to make actors receptive?
– unexpected alliance of interests challenging the current food
system?
– popular campaigns to change underlying attitudes and beliefs?
– institutions (policy), technology to translate a movement into a
new system?

In developing countries (waste front loaded), it may well need
– popular demand for democracy and openness (after Sen)?
– leveraged investment (alliances aggregate power?)
– aggregation of farmers or farms (producers able to challenge
power)?

Characteristics of who will influence the direction of this
change: opportunistic, connector, communicator, organiser
Another type of change: innovation


Innovation – process by which an idea is translated into a new
good, service or behaviour (creation, prototyping, going to
scale)
Works when power isn’t challenged?
Innovation in agriculture



Idea1: don’t focus on agriculture, focus on the ‘system’
(Calestous Juma 2010).
Idea 2: innovation needs hardware (e.g., mobile phones; new
crop varieties, new forecasting models), software (knowledge,
ways of thinking), and ‘orgware’ (new alliances and social
institutions) (Smits 2002).
Idea 3: ‘Orgware’ might be the most important of all: because
the problems exist in different realms (policy, technical,
institutional) and are dynamic, it’s the range and strength of
interactions that counts (Hall 2009)
One of the 20th Century's top 20 "feed the world"
success stories ... Burkina Faso
A “line of stones”
One of the 20th Century's top 20 "feed the world"
success stories ... What changed?



Local farmers, with a bit of outside help, began improving,
traditional "planting pits" to reclaim severely degraded farmland.
Yields went up and farmers started spreading the word.
Another improved technique also spread – "lines of stone"
(diguettes) - piling stones along the contours on the (very flat)
land to harvest rainfall.
In villages where one or more of these soil and water
conservation techniques has been used, 72-94% of the cultivated
land has been rehabilitated. Yields have increased by 40-100%.
In total, farmers have rehabilitated up to 300,000 hectares and
produce an additional 80,000 tons of food per year - enough to
feed half a million people.
See http://www.ifpri.org/publication/millions-fed
chapter 7
One of the 20th Century's top 20 "feed the world“
success stories ... Lessons
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People had reached the point where if they didn't change, they
could no longer live in the area (necessity).
The techniques enable farmers to grow more food almost
immediately (instant gratification).
Local people as innovators (software).
Innovations become mutually reinforcing - a chain reaction of
soil, water and vegetation regeneration (path dependency).
Spreading the word through networks and charismatic leaders
(orgware).
And a bit of outside help (hardware)
A change for a challenge: the case of seasonal
forecasts
Human activity and rainfall
GDP and Rainfall Variability
Coefficient of Variation of
monthly rainfall
1.8
1.6
Bubble Size = GDP per capita
(Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall)
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
50
100
150
Mean Annual Rainfall (cm)
Brown and Lall (2006). Natural Resources Forum 30; 306–317
200
250
300
Human activity and rainfall - Ethiopia
Benefits of seasonal forecasts

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Seasonal forecasts are
probabilistic estimates for 1 (-36) months and suggest the total
amount of rainfall in the period
but not the distribution
Use of seasonal forecasts can
increase yields significantly (Patt
et al., 2005)
Forecasts used to support
farmer’s decisions on planting
area, crops and varieties,
irrigating, harvesting, fertilizing
and pesticide application.
Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder
farmers
 Reliability
 Accessibility
 Application
Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder
farmers
 Reliability
 Accessibility
 Application
Forecasting inequality
Met. station density (#/1000km 2)
1
0.9
0.8
EU (± 1 S.E.)
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Countries where
Oxfam has
programmes
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
GDP per capita at PPP
Data sources:
(1) Met stations - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service
(2) GDP per capita at PPP – IMF
(3) Land area - wikipedia
What information?
Ranking of climate information desired (Lesotho)
Information
Crops
Livestock
Distribution of rain through season
1
1
Start of rainy season
2
2
Max. rainfall in one month
3
4
Min. temperatures
4
5
Max. temperatures
5
3
No. Days/months without rain
6
6
Total rainfall in season (seasonal forecast)
7
7
Redrawn from Ziervogel & Calder (2003)
Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder
farmers
 Reilability
 Accessibility
 Application
Who gets the forecasts?
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Only 39% of respondents (smallholder and commercial
farmers, extension and research services) received seasonal
forecasts in Free State Province South Africa (Walker et al.,
2001)
33% of respondents (almost all farmers/livestock keepers) from
Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria were aware of seasonal
forecasts (Tarhule & Lamb, 2003)
Women (majority of food producers) would prefer ‘teach ins’ to
radio dissemination of forecasts (Archer 2003)
Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder
farmers
 Reliability
 Accessibility
 Application
Can the information be used?
Patt, Suarez & Gwata 2005
Overcoming the constraints: some suggestions
What needs to
change?
Reliability:
Forecast
reliability;
Type of forecast
information
Accessibility:
Forecast
communicated
to users
Application:
Users have
understanding,
assets & services
to use forecasts
Obstacles /
opportunities
Lack of Met stations
and services, model
skill/
‘UNFCCC’;
Advances in
seasonal forecasts
Poorly functioning
communications,
culture of comms./
Digital technology;
NGO grassroots
leverage
Non-intuitive
interpretation; lack of
assets &government
services/
Win-win market
relations
Innovation approaches
Change goal
‘Hardware’: invest in
better met data and
modelling
‘Orgware’: and
‘Software’ pilot new
dynamic
relationships
between
forecasters and
users
‘Hardware’: invest in
assets and service and
‘Orgware’: producer
organisations, new
markets
‘Poor
farmers in
subSaharan
Africa use
seasonal
forecasts
to
increase
their yield’
Roles of academics and NGOs
What needs to
change?
Reliability:
Accessibility:
Application:
Innovation approaches
‘Hardware’: invest in
better met data and
modelling
‘Orgware’: and
‘Software’ pilot new
dynamic
relationships
between
forecasters and
users
‘Hardware’: invest in
assets and service and
‘Orgware’: producer
organisations, new
markets
Who?
Change goal
Scientists
Scientists &
NGO
collaboration
NGOs
‘Poor
farmers in
subSaharan
Africa use
seasonal
forecasts
to
increase
their yield’
Roles of academics and NGOs: a final thought
“the most effective way to conduct pro-poor
adaptation research may well be to take –
from the outset – a holistic view that is
informed by engagement and partnership
with potential beneficiaries”
Challinor, 2008
Conclusions


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Development of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is a must –
for poverty reduction now and to secure food for the future
Some of the changes will be ‘large and deep’ (and possibly
chaotic) with at best a supporting role from science, new
technology, development practitioners and campaigners
Significant change is still possible closer to the realm of
innovation – where power is not challenged
A particular area of congruence between science and NGOs
could be ‘orgware’ – creating new alliances and ‘institutions’
with farmers
Thank you!
How does change happen?
 A huge and sustained change is needed ...
 Innovation is necessary
 A case study of innovation in sub-Saharan African
agriculture
 How else can we analyse and influence change?
 Why are resources not directed towards
climate science in Africa?
 Data
 Scientists (only 2% of lead authors in the
Journal of Climate were affiliated to
African institutions)
 Washington et al., 2006
 Advantages planting, irrigating,
harvesting, fertilizing and pesticide
application
 As far as societies are concerned. Climate
change and climate variability are not
 Change and progress often stem from
both the experience of individual extreme
events and the material knowledge
available to rationally respond to these
circumstances. Friedman (1993) provides
the example of the October 1921 storm in
Scandinavia in his account of the birth of
modern meteorology.
 There is a consistent gap in productivity
between male and female small farmers
(of around 20%) due to women
systematically having lower access to key
production resources, notably inputs and
labour as well as equipment. Addressing
this gap would enable women to increase
their overall output by 10-20% leading to
increases in overall agricultural
productivity of up to 6%. Increasing the
productivity of women farmers will also
improve household food security
outcomes. (State of Food and Agriculture
“The poorest developing
countries will be hit earliest
and hardest by climate change,
even though they have
contributed little to causing the
problem.”
The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change.
HM Treasury http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/
 “no substantial famine has ever occurred
in any independent and democratic
country with a relatively free press”
 Amartya Sen, ”Democracy as a Universal
Value” Journal of Democracy 0.3 (1999) 317