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Applying a Systems Framework to Research on African Farming Systems CRP1.1 Regional Inception Workshop East and Southern Africa 5-7 June 2012 Expanding Global Agendas and Increasing Demands on Agricultural Research Global food security under increasing land and water constraints Provision of ecosystem services and eco-efficiency of farming systems Adaptation and mitigation to climate change Agroecological intensification of smallholder agriculture and poverty Changing Research Methods and Technology Design Production systems research Integrating ecological science Place-based research methods Research consortia Scaling up integrated into research design Flexible institutional arrangements Design Issues in Production System CGIAR Research Programs Target Area Selection Research Site Selection -Target area characterization -Research hypotheses -Methodology for research site selection -Baseline and monitoring of system change Methods for Research on Farming Systems Developing the Science of System Intensification Data and Analytics for: Characterization and targeting Extrapolation Baseline and monitoring Causal relationships -System change -Comparative frameworks Design Characteristics for Analyzing African Farming Systems Heterogeneity: system boundaries and classification strata -Spatial Characterization -Within site household stratification System Change and Dynamics: drivers and intensification pathways Embeddedness: landscape, market/sub-sector, agricultural sector Livelihood strategies Key variables INSTITUTIONAL MANAGEMENT ENDOGENOUS Livelihood Capitals EXOGENOUS Implementation programs Institutions and policy network Spatial Scale Structure of Farm/Household System Asset base: five capitals Production activities Household objectives: -Subsistence/food security -Risk management -Income Within site variability: typologies System Boundaries and Classification Frameworks Hierarchical Classification Land use: Cultivated land within managed natural ecosystems First order spatial classification -Agroecology: eg semi-arid, highlands -Crop-livestock interaction: eg pastoral Staple food crop: spatially contiguous? Sub-system speciation System Speciation East African Highland Banana Systems Utilization Matoke: Uganda Beer bananas: Rwanda and Burundi Enset: Ethiopia Crop Management Commercial: southwest Uganda Soil fertility constrained: Bukoba System Variation and System Performance System Performance -Productivity, profitability, income -Vulnerability, food security -Resource efficiency, resilience System Variation -Spatial/causal comparative frameworks -Within-site socio-economic variation Drivers of System Change Rural population growth -Declining farm size -Increasing inequity in farm distribution -Pressure on common resources and natural capital Improvements in Market Access -Transaction costs and input/output -Staple terms of trade Changes in agroecology from climate change or biotic pandemics Relative Prices and Marginal Returns to Nitrogen Application Marginal Return (kg) Relative Price Kenya: HYV Maize 19.9 16.0 Kenya: Recycled Maize 16.1 16.0 Uganda: HYV Maize 25.0 33.7 Uganda: Recycled Maize 25.2 33.7 Pathways of System Change Intensification of existing production patterns: sustainable and unsustainable Diversification of production Expanded farm size or herd size: high vs low population densities Increased off-farm income: expanding non-farm rural economy vs transfers Exit from agriculture East Africa: Average Farm Income, 2004-06 Kenya Uganda Ethiopia 367 154 94 % Crop Income 36 64 53 % Livestock Income 24 13 34 % Non Farm Income 42 29 12 Per Capita Income Kenya: Crop Diversification Indices by Zone Markets as a Driver of Farming System Evolution Stage in Farming System Evolution Farmer Objective Principal Driver Static Equilibrium Subsistence Dominates Rural Population Growth Diversification Both Income and Subsistence <Shifting Farm Gate Terms of Trade <Staple Food Productivity Specialization Income Dominates <Price Signals in Efficient Markets <Regional Competition and Comparative Advantage