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June 2015 Market Intelligence – Core Products TEAM MEMBERS WHERE WE FIT IN COMPARE COUNTRIES COUNTRY PROFILES MARKET PRESENTATIONS CLASS REVIEW COUNTRY ROUNDUPS MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) WHERE TO FIND US Market Intelligence – MI Portal TEAM MEMBERS Market Intelligence has launched its MI Portal, that can be accessed by Lloyd’s Managing Agents via Secure Store. Visit https://secure.lloyds.com MI Portal Visit www.lloyds.com/MIPortal for further detail on access. The MI Portal contains detailed and tailored* analysis for each Managing Agent. WHERE WE FIT IN COMPARE COUNTRIES COUNTRY PROFILES The MI Portal currently contains: Analysis Market Insight Reports (Brazil & Indonesia) that highlight the size of the prize for Lloyd’s in these markets and provides detailed forecasts of the opportunity by line of business. (Future reports include Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Malaysia and the UAE) Profiles 50 local insurer / cedents and broker profiles covering high level financial information, strategy and key classes / segments. (Mexico, India, China, Brazil and Turkey) Managing Agent Compare Countries* Detailed premium & loss ratio statistics that are tailored to each Managing Agent. (*Tailored Excel dashboard will be hosted securely during Q1 2015 for subscribing Managing Agents) MARKET PRESENTATIONS CLASS REVIEW COUNTRY ROUNDUPS MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) WHERE TO FIND US Market Intelligence – Team Members Bruno Davila, Email: Focus: Senior Manager, Market Intelligence & Development [email protected] Team Leader / Product Development TEAM MEMBERS George Delis, Analytics Specialist Email: Focus: [email protected] Compare Countries / MI Portal WHERE WE FIT IN Chris Brown, Market Development & Intelligence Analyst, Americas Email: Focus: [email protected] Americas / Class Review / Engagement Strategy / MI Surgery Sessions COMPARE COUNTRIES Sandra Zukowska, Junior Analyst, Europe Email: Focus: [email protected] Europe TBC, Asia-Pacific Analyst Email: Focus: Compare Countries Enhancements, Market Presentation & Class Review Lara Green, Soft Intelligence Executive Email: Focus: [email protected] Country Roundups Development & Roll Out, Blogs Joshua Hughes, Graduate Trainee Email: Focus: [email protected] Compare Countries Enhancements, Market Presentation & Class Review Faye Atack, Email: Focus: Apprentice COUNTRY PROFILES MARKET PRESENTATIONS CLASS REVIEW COUNTRY ROUNDUPS MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) [email protected] Compare Countries Enhancements, Market Presentation & Class Review WHERE TO FIND US Market Intelligence – Where we fit in… TEAM MEMBERS MARKET INTELLIGENCE CRYSTAL MARKET ANALYSIS & BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE WHERE WE FIT IN COMPARE COUNTRIES COUNTRY PROFILES CRYSTAL provides Lloyd's market participants with access to international regulatory & taxation requirements www.lloyds.com/crystal MARKET INTELLIGENCE provides Lloyd's market participants with information on international insurance markets from a Lloyd’s perspective MARKET ANALYSIS & BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE provide analysis on past, present and future performance of syndicates and the market MARKET PRESENTATIONS CLASS REVIEW COUNTRY ROUNDUPS www.lloyds.com/stats MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) WHERE TO FIND US Market Intelligence – Schedule Compare Countries Lloyd’s data once a year for annual update of premiums by 1 July; loss ratios to be shared with MAs no sooner than 1 January (i.e. 1 year lag) Insurance market statistics: once a year; driven by local sources (regulator, association or third party such as SNL) Macro statistics are updated once a year for all third party sources (apart from Business Monitor forecasting pilot) TEAM MEMBERS WHERE WE FIT IN Country Profiles Lloyd’s data: updated once a year for annual update of premiums by 1 July Country Development Plan once a year for annual update in early Q1 (ideally in December each year) Insurance market statistics: once a year; driven by local sources (regulator, association or third party such as SNL) Macro statistics / Political information can be updated when needed; but at least once a year COMPARE COUNTRIES COUNTRY PROFILES Market Presentations: Schedule determined between Phil McCarty & Country Manager; update once a year > short term schedule as per : www.lloyds.com/marketpresentations Class Review MARKET PRESENTATIONS CLASS REVIEW Update once a year; ideally in time for Market Presentation where available; otherwise driven by regulatory local stats update We are striving to have Class Reviews for all Lloyd’s core markets (i.e. where we have a Country Manager) COUNTRY ROUNDUPS Country Roundups MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) PDF / Email one pager: not more often than once a quarter; dependent on demand from Country Manager and type of market (i.e. there are more developments in large developing market such as China than in mature markets such as Scandinavia) WHERE TO FIND US www.lloyds.com/CompareCountries WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*… TEAM MEMBERS One-stop shop for country stats WHERE WE FIT IN (Economic Trends, Insurance Market Size by Class & Lloyd’s Premium Trends by Detailed Class) Visual Representation COMPARE COUNTRIES (Ability to see trends using via visualisation tools) Raw data COUNTRY PROFILES (Ability to download raw data for own analysis) > MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION MARKET PRESENTATIONS Compare Countries Tool launched Macro Stats (e.g. from IMF (2000-2020)) Insurance Market Stats for 80+ territories Lloyd’s detailed premium trends (2000-2014) for 200+ territories CLASS REVIEW COUNTRY ROUNDUPS Excel Dashboards MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) Raw Data in Excel WHERE TO FIND US * Based on Emails, Telephone Calls, Surgery Session with around 150 Market Participants in 2012/2013 © Lloyd’s 2012 www.lloyds.com/CompareCountries TEAM MEMBERS 2015 DEVELOPMENTS Enhancing Insurance Data Adding loss ratios and local insurance classes (as per regulator / association) for Lloyd’s Managing Agents (phased roll out starting in December 2014; adding more enhanced forecasting that include sector forecasts) Enhancing Lloyd’s Data WHERE WE FIT IN COMPARE COUNTRIES Adding further dimensions (where appropriate) for Lloyd’s Managing Agents (phased roll out starting in Q2 2015) Managing Agent Compare Countries COUNTRY PROFILES Managing Agents will receive their own data vs Lloyd’s total for benchmarking analysis Shared via the MI Portal (i.e. not hosted on lloyds.com) (phased roll out starting in Q2 2015) MARKET PRESENTATIONS MI Portal CLASS REVIEW MI Portal is designed for sharing sensitive and tailored Market Intelligence with Managing Agents COUNTRY ROUNDUPS www.lloyds.com/MIPortal MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) Managing Agent Appetite Business development communication channel with Lloyd’s Country Managers Capture Managing Agent appetite by class of business/territory/distribution (business case to be built in 2015) WHERE TO FIND US © Lloyd’s 2012 www.lloyds.com/CompareCountries TEAM MEMBERS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AREAS Forecasting table to include “soft intelligence” moderators In addition to the forecast that are based on modelling, soft intelligence views could be included. Accordingly, there are a number of various forecasting steps. Live Q4 2015 TBC COMPARE COUNTRIES Forecast & Soft Intelligence moderated Insurance Market Data Forecast Insurance Market Data WHERE WE FIT IN COUNTRY PROFILES MARKET PRESENTATIONS Econometric Model Forecast based on sector forecasts from Business Monitor International for 40 territories up to 2025 CLASS REVIEW + Projected Insurance Market Data Projection based on constant penetration rates and IMF GDP forecasts up to 2019 Actual Insurance Market Data Econometric Model Forecast based on sector forecasts from Business Monitor International for 40 territories up to 2025 Actual Insurance Market Data Opportunity to reflect local soft intelligence views that moderate upwards or downwards the Econometric Model forecast. COUNTRY ROUNDUPS MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) Actual Insurance Market Data WHERE TO FIND US © Lloyd’s 2012 www.lloyds.com/Countryprofiles WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*… TEAM MEMBERS Standardised Country Fact Sheet WHERE WE FIT IN (Quick summary of Lloyd’s business, insurance markets and macroeconomic indicators; Lloyd’s licence) Latest update on economy & political situation in key markets COMPARE COUNTRIES (Ability to see latest economic & political analysis) List of top insurers/cedants, key classes & Lloyd’s stats by country (Top market players, classes of business, Lloyd’s business profiles by class, office contact details) COUNTRY PROFILES > MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION Country Profiles launched (54 Country Profiles on the world’s top insurance markets) MARKET PRESENTATIONS Count r y Pr of il e br azil www.lloyds.com/BrazilMI CLASS REVIEW KEY STATISTICS BR Brazil 87 50 Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism 18 59 48 7 91 56 5 93 55 SIZE OF ECONOMY WEALTH PER CAPITA Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis in International $ bn Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis in International $ 3,500 30,000 3,000 25,000 2,500 20,000 2,000 15,000 Control of Corruption 1,500 Rule of Law 1 88 52 Voice and Accountability 22 80 61 299 398 1,000 Regulatory Quality 500 5,000 0 2012 VE 2006 2018f CL 2012 VE BR 2018f CL BR TOTAL NON-LIFE DIRECT INSURANCE MARKET* NON-LIFE DIRECT INSURANCE MARKET LLOYD’S GROSS SIGNED PREMIUMS Premiums in US$ m Premiums in US$ m; by OECD Class Gross Signed Premiums in US$ m; by country of origin 400 35,000 984 Brazil 2012 US$ 27.4bn Liability 0 2011 VE 2012 CL 2013 BR COUNTRY ROUNDUPS 250 200 150 100 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT MAT 5,000 300 101 15,664 13,474 10,135 4,034 717 Property 134 650 PA & Health 20,000 10,000 350 405 30,000 25,000 99 Motor 15,000 (Partnership with Global Insight allows the team to concentrate on insurance market analysis) 10,000 0 2006 Economic & Political Summary 15,516 CL Chile 13 2012 13,480 VE Venezuela Government Effectiveness 503 [email protected] 11,145 GOVERNANCE INDICATORS Percentile Rank (1-100) 2012 June 2014 50 The largest public protests in 20 years will shape the political agenda for remainder of presidential term. During the June 2013 football Confederations Cup, 6,684 0 Miscellaneous 2011 plan presented 2012 2013 the largest public protests since 1992 occurred throughout Brazil. A five-point by the government will be seen as a commitment by President Dilma Rousseff to address the protesters' demands on corruption, public transportation, health, and education. Congress also seems to be pri oritising bills related to these VE CL BR issues. Ultimately, however, legislators' personal interests will prevail. This means there will be further corruption cases and resistance to any far-reaching political reform All data, sources & data limitations are available forproposals. download at www.lloyds.com/comparecountries; * 2013 total non-life based on CAGR projection The FIFA World Cup and presidential election will be the main focus through mid-2014. There will be little legislative activity from early June onwards, as Brazil LLOYD’S TRADING POSITION Brazil www.lloyds.com/crystal focuses No on the football World Cup through to mid-July and then on campaigning for the October presidential election through the third quarter of 2014. Government Insurance: (with exceptions) effectiveness and image is likely to be tested by social protests during the World Cup period. That could affect Rousseff’s popularity ratings, which fell sharply after the Reinsurance: Yes, as an admitted reinsurer June 2013 protests, and makes a second-round run-off more likely, although Rousseff remains favourite for re-election. Coverholders: No The Brazilian economy is moving very slowly. Our latest forecast calls for Brazil's GDP to expand 1.9–2.4% in 2014 before accelerating to 3.0–3.3% in 2015. An © Lloyd’s and investment. 3 aggressive stance by the central bank against inflation may help improve business sentiment Interest rates in Brazil are now similar to 2012 levels, so there is no room for the government to save on interest payments or to execute fiscal stimuli without hurting public finances significantly. We should not expect a major boost from government spending, even though 2014 is an election year; the possibility of a fiscal spree (political busi ness cycle) under tight fiscal conditions has become one of the major risks for the Brazilian economy for 2014. Investment will be the driver of the forecasted modest grow th in 2014. High levels of taxation and bureaucracy undermine Brazil's competitiveness. Despite increased investor confidence in the economy, security concerns and operational risks – such as high levels of government bureaucracy, an over-complicated tax system, insufficient investment in infrastructure, and shortcomings in the educational system – continue to restrain Brazil. The government's programme to accelerate economic growth seeks to prioritise i nvestment in infrastructure projects, and some progress has been made on other fronts. Nevertheless, many challenges remain. Key Insurance & Lloyd’s stats (Top Market Players, key classes of business, Lloyd’s business snapshot & summary of Lloyd’s Country Development Plan) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (nominal GDP levels in billion US$; Real GDP change) 4,000 TOP-10 SECTORS (BY VALUE ADDED) BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION (value added in billion US$ & 2014 Change in real %) (provided by IHS Global Insight, May 2014) 8% 7.5% 7% 6% 3,000 5% 3.9% 2,000 3.9% 3.9% 3.3% 2.7% 1,000 2.1% 2.3% 2013 2014 4% 3% 2% 1% 1.0% 0% 0 -1% 2010 2011 2012 2015 2016 * Based on Emails, Telephone Calls, Surgery Session with around 150 Market Participants in 2012/2013 2017 2018 TOP SECTORS 1. Public Admin. & Defense 2. Wholesale trade 3. Sanitation, trade organizations 4. Construction 5. Agriculture 6. Hotels & restaurants 7. Retail trade - total 8. Education 9. Real estate 10. Mining of metals & stone Top-10 Total 2013 Value Added 2014 Percentage Change 167.2 3.6 154.2 4.2 151.0 3.3 108.5 4.5 104.6 3.1 89.1 87.2 83.2 3.3 2.5 3.5 77.1 3.1 71.3 -1.6 1093.4 MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) For daily updates visit: > www.ihsglobalinsight.com © Lloyd’s 4 © Lloyd’s 2012 WHERE TO FIND US www.lloyds.com/Countryprofiles Country MI pages now available: www.lloyds.com/marketintelligence > Pick a Country TEAM MEMBERS 2014 DEVELOPMENTS Country MI pages which contain all available MI on one page 1 WHERE WE FIT IN COUNTRY ROUNDUPS & MI ANALYST DETAILS COMPARE COUNTRIES COUNTRY PROFILES 2 COUNTRY SNAPSHOT & OFFICE DETAILS MARKET PRESENTATIONS CLASS REVIEW COUNTRY ROUNDUPS 3 ALL AVAILABLE MI CORE PRODUCTS FOR THIS MARKET MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) WHERE TO FIND US © Lloyd’s 2012 www.lloyds.com/Marketpresentations MANAGING AGENTS & LLOYD’S BROKERS CAN SIGN UP TO BE ON INVITE LIST: www.lloyds.com/misignup WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*… TEAM MEMBERS Detailed insurance & Lloyd’s business trends & outlook WHERE WE FIT IN (Analysis of premium development in territories where Lloyd’s has a Country Manager) Summary of key opportunities & challenges for Lloyd’s in market (A Lloyd’s perspective on how our market performs locally) COMPARE COUNTRIES Outline of local Market Development Initiatives & Events (Summary of key local initiatives and local Lloyd’s events) COUNTRY PROFILES > MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION MARKET PRESENTATIONS Market Presentation launched (Market Presentations covering 28 markets held annually & hosted on lloyds.com) CLASS REVIEW Business Class & distribution trends COUNTRY ROUNDUPS (Local intelligence coupled with detailed analysis of soft & hard intelligence tailored to specific markets) MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) Opportunities for Lloyd’s (Key pointers for who & what to target; meet the Lloyd’s Country Manager & peers from the market) * Based on Emails, Telephone Calls, Surgery Session with around 150 Market Participants in 2012/2013 WHERE TO FIND US © Lloyd’s 2012 www.lloyds.com/ClassReview SIGN UP TO BE ALERTED ON NEW RELEASES: www.lloyds.com/misignup WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*… TEAM MEMBERS Class of business premiums & loss trends by territory WHERE WE FIT IN (Specialist class of business premium & loss trends by geography) Comparison of Lloyd’s premiums & loss ratios trends COMPARE COUNTRIES (Class of business premiums and loss trends by geography) COUNTRY PROFILES > MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION MARKET PRESENTATIONS Class Review built with LMA Support (Panel of underwriters used to devise reports in 2010 for US E&S Market) CLASS REVIEW Class Review roll out for key territories COUNTRY ROUNDUPS Top 4 E&S Markets, Total US, UK, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, China, India, Japan, Canada, Australia, South Korea MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) Further commentary added to paint fuller picture (China also includes further commentary in addition to merely stats, this has been applied to any updates or new Class Reviews since) * Based on LMA Working Group + Surgery Sessions during 2012 / 2013 WHERE TO FIND US © Lloyd’s 2012 www.lloyds.com/CountryRoundups C SIGN UP TO BE ALERTED ON NEW RELEASES: www.lloyds.com/misignup WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*… TEAM MEMBERS Local intelligence from Country Managers WHERE WE FIT IN (Local news including key news from cedants, local brokers, service companies & coverholders) “Plugged into key local industry and Lloyd’s events” COMPARE COUNTRIES (Ability for Managing Agents to be notified of key events) Receive notification for new Market Intelligence (Ensuring that Managing Agents & Brokers are notified of material MI updates – i.e. Class Review) COUNTRY PROFILES > MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION MARKET PRESENTATIONS Country Roundups launched (Local news summary sourced from the participating offices were launched for Europe (10) and extended to Asian offices (4) in 2013) CLASS REVIEW Total universe of 4,200+ sign ups COUNTRY ROUNDUPS (A marketing list of around 4k+ contacts has been built up since its launch in Q1 2012; sign ups are by geography, which allows Country Managers to target messages to an audience of underwriters & brokers who are interested in a specific territory. MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) Provides a direct channel to CMs (Provides Country Managers (CMs) with a list of “clients” they can target for Market Development Activities) * Based on Emails, Telephone Calls, Surgery Session with around 150 Market Participants in 2012/2013 WHERE TO FIND US © Lloyd’s 2012 www.lloyds.com/CountryRoundups C TEAM MEMBERS 2014/2015 DEVELOPMENTS Redeveloped webpage to turn stories into searchable content WHERE WE FIT IN Launched Market Intelligence LinkedIn page at > www.lloyds.com/LinkedInMarketIntelligence COMPARE COUNTRIES Seek market feedback on further development COUNTRY PROFILES MARKET PRESENTATIONS CLASS REVIEW COUNTRY ROUNDUPS MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) WHERE TO FIND US © Lloyd’s 2012 https://secure.lloyds.com TEAM MEMBERS 2014 DEVELOPMENTS (1 of 3) Launch of MI Portal via Secure Store (July 2014) WHERE WE FIT IN 1 COMPARE COUNTRIES Log into via Lloyd’s Authentication Framework (LAF) COUNTRY PROFILES MARKET PRESENTATIONS 2 CLASS REVIEW Click Secure Store COUNTRY ROUNDUPS MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) WHERE TO FIND US © Lloyd’s 2012 https://secure.lloyds.com TEAM MEMBERS 2014 DEVELOPMENTS (2 of 3) Log into MI Portal via Secure Store (July 2014) 3 WHERE WE FIT IN Click Market Intelligence – by Country COMPARE COUNTRIES COUNTRY PROFILES 4 Download Market Insights Reports (“Analysis”) MARKET PRESENTATIONS 5 CLASS REVIEW Download Broker / Insurer Profiles 6 Download Managing Agent Compare Countries* COUNTRY ROUNDUPS Tailored premium stats for each Managing Agents Managing Agent Lloyd’s benchmarking statistics *To be released in phases during October 2014 Managing Agent Appetite capture mechanism to be implemented in 2015 MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) WHERE TO FIND US © Lloyd’s 2012 https://secure.lloyds.com TEAM MEMBERS 2014 DEVELOPMENTS (3 of 3) Managing Agent Compare Countries (phase roll out in Q2 2015) WHERE WE FIT IN Compare your Managing Agent with that of Lloyd’s along: PREMIUM TRENDS* by Country of Origin (where policyholder is based) Lloyd’s detailed classes (Airline XL, Energy Offshore, Professional Indemnity… etc.) Region / Country (Asia Pacific, South-Eastern Asia, Malaysia… etc.) Method of Placement (To be explored) COMPARE COUNTRIES COUNTRY PROFILES INCURRED LOSS RATIOS* by Country of Origin Lloyd’s detailed classes (Airline XL, Energy Offshore, Professional Indemnity… etc.) Region / Country (Asia Pacific, South-Eastern Asia, Malaysia… etc.) MARKET PRESENTATIONS PREMIUM TRENDS* by Risk Location ! Country (Asia Pacific, South-Eastern Asia, Malaysia… etc.) CLASS REVIEW COUNTRY ROUNDUPS *Premiums & Loss Ratios will only be shared for cuts where more than 9 Syndicates write business, premium is greater than US$ 1m and the largest syndicate does not write more than 50% of that cut. PREMIUM TRENDS by platform View aggregated LLOYD’S PLATFORM figures (Singapore, Japan** and China**) (**TBC) MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) View your Managing Agent SYNDICATE BUSINESS FORECAST WHERE TO FIND US View collected LOCAL MARKET PREMIUM, CLAIMS AND LOSS RATIOS (where available) (in phases) © Lloyd’s 2012 Market Intelligence – Where to find us TEAM MEMBERS QUESTIONS [email protected] WHERE WE FIT IN MI CONSULTANCY* [email protected] COMPARE COUNTRIES COUNTRY PROFILES STAY INFORMED www.lloyds.com/MISignup MARKET PRESENTATIONS CLASS REVIEW VISIT OUR WEBSITE www.lloyds.com/MarketIntelligence COUNTRY ROUNDUPS MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) JOIN OUR LINKEDIN PAGE www.lloyds.com/LinkedInMarketIntelligence *MI Consultancy Sessions can be held at Lloyd’s for Syndicates & Lloyd’s Brokers or in their respective London offices WHERE TO FIND US