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Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture and Adaptation Opportunities Presentation to Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry Ed Tyrchniewicz P.Ag President, Agricultural Institute of Canada February 20 2003 Outline But agriculture is different – Elements of climate change and agriculture Benefits and concerns for agriculture Adaptation opportunities But Agriculture is Different: Some Realities ... Biological process of production is very dependent on climate and weather Climate variability is a fact of life – risk management Ag sector generally operates in global markets with narrow margins and limited opportunities to pass costs on to customers But Agriculture is Different: Some More Realities ... Process of policy making in agriculture is a shared federal-provincial responsibility Focus on short term income problems Expanding exports is seen as a solution; dealing with climate change is not Perception of agriculture as a polluter and destroyer of the environment Elements of Climate Change Temperature Precipitation Variability more extreme weather events risk management Sources of Greenhouse Gases CO2 Fossil fuels, soil destruction, deforestation Methane Agriculture, landfills, coal mines, gas production losses N 2O Soil, Fossil fuels, Fertilizer Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Agriculture’s Emissions Gas CO2 Relative GWP % of 1996 Ag. Emissions (CO2 (CO2 eq.) equivalent) 1 3% CH4 21 36% N2 O 310 61% Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Canadian Agroecosystems from 1996 ( CO2 equivalent) Enteric fermentation 18.5% Other 3.4% Manure 19.9% Crops 13.2% Fertilizers 11.3% Benefits to Agriculture • potentially more heat units • longer frost free season • increase moisture in some drought prone areas of Eastern Canada • CO2 growth enhancement Concerns for Agriculture increased variability in climate raised sea level on the East and West Coasts increased and decreased soil moisture in different parts of Canada more/different weeds and bugs more erosion Changes in Ecozone Boundaries Present Day Doubled-CO2 Agriculture has a history of adapting to change technology markets policies climate Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading Blessed are the Flexible For They Shall Not Get Bent Out Of Shape