Download Elements of climate change and agriculture Benefits and concerns

Effects of Climate Change on
Canadian Agriculture and
Adaptation Opportunities
Presentation to Standing Senate Committee
on Agriculture and Forestry
Ed Tyrchniewicz P.Ag
President, Agricultural Institute of Canada
February 20 2003
Outline
But agriculture is different –
 Elements of climate change and
agriculture
 Benefits and concerns for agriculture
 Adaptation opportunities

But Agriculture is Different:
Some Realities ...
Biological process of production is
very dependent on climate and
weather
 Climate variability is a fact of life –
risk management
 Ag sector generally operates in
global markets with narrow margins
and limited opportunities to pass
costs on to customers

But Agriculture is Different:
Some More Realities ...
Process of policy making in agriculture
is a shared federal-provincial
responsibility
 Focus on short term income problems
 Expanding exports is seen as a solution;
dealing with climate change is not
 Perception of agriculture as a polluter
and destroyer of the environment

Elements of Climate Change
 Temperature
 Precipitation
 Variability
more extreme weather events
risk management
Sources of Greenhouse
Gases
CO2
Fossil fuels, soil
destruction, deforestation
Methane
Agriculture, landfills, coal
mines, gas production
losses
N 2O
Soil, Fossil fuels, Fertilizer
Global Warming Potentials (GWP)
and Agriculture’s Emissions
Gas
CO2
Relative GWP % of 1996 Ag. Emissions
(CO2
(CO2 eq.)
equivalent)
1
3%
CH4
21
36%
N2 O
310
61%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Canadian
Agroecosystems from 1996
( CO2 equivalent)
Enteric fermentation
18.5%
Other
3.4%
Manure
19.9%
Crops
13.2%
Fertilizers
11.3%
Benefits to Agriculture
• potentially more heat units
• longer frost free season
• increase moisture in some drought
prone areas of Eastern Canada
• CO2 growth enhancement
Concerns for Agriculture
 increased variability in climate
 raised sea level on the East and
West Coasts
 increased and decreased soil
moisture in different parts of
Canada
 more/different weeds and bugs
 more erosion
Changes in Ecozone
Boundaries
Present Day
Doubled-CO2
Agriculture has a history of
adapting to change
technology
markets
policies
climate
Adaptation Opportunities
 Conservation
tillage
 Manure management
 Shelterbelts and permanent
cover
 Carbon storage
 Carbon emissions trading
Adaptation Opportunities
 Conservation
tillage
 Manure management
 Shelterbelts and permanent
cover
 Carbon storage
 Carbon emissions trading
Adaptation Opportunities
 Conservation
tillage
 Manure management
 Shelterbelts and permanent
cover
 Carbon storage
 Carbon emissions trading
Adaptation Opportunities
 Conservation
tillage
 Manure management
 Shelterbelts and permanent
cover
 Carbon storage
 Carbon emissions trading
Adaptation Opportunities
 Conservation
tillage
 Manure management
 Shelterbelts and permanent
cover
 Carbon storage
 Carbon emissions trading
Blessed are the Flexible
For They Shall Not
Get Bent Out Of Shape