Download VISION 2040 presentation Final Version

DRAFT NATIONAL VISION 2040
Vision: “A transformed Ugandan society from a
peasant to a modern and prosperous country
within 30 years”
1
Presentation Outline
Background
- Rationale and Context
Where we are now
Where we want to be in 30 years time
-The Vision
How to get there
Strategies
Priority interventions
2
Comprehensive National Development Planning
Framework
3
Background - Rationale and Context
•
•
•
•
•
Long-term planning in Uganda
Previous efforts in developing the
vision frameworks:The case of 2025
Faster and coordinated
transformation
Reviews of emerging economies &
globalisation trends
Policy framework (Comprehensive
National Development Planning
Framework -2007)
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WHY VISION 2025 NOT
IMPLEMENTED
 Inadequate
legal, policy and institutional
framework (NPA Act 2002)
 MDGs - most funding donor
 Economics of the time- liberal economics
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NEED FOR LONG- TERM
 Harmonized
direction for many
stakeholders
 Prioritization
 Long term projects – infrastructure
 Minimizing cost of development
 Optimizing competitiveness
 Worked for all Asian and European
countries- Germany, China, Korea

6
WHERE WE ARE NOW SITUATION ANALYSIS
7
Economic Growth Performances of Several
Countries (1960-2010)
8
550.00
18,000
500.00
16,000
450.00
14,000
400.00
12,000
350.00
300.00
10,000
250.00
8,000
200.00
6,000
150.00
4,000
100.00
2,000
50.00
0.00
GDP (US$ Millions)
GDP per capita US$
GDP and GDP Per-capita Trends for
Uganda
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
GDP (Current US$)
GDP per capita
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Our competitiveness
10
WHERE IS THE WORLD
GOING
11
Where is world going
Fewer dominant but strong industrial
value chains (standard chartered, apple)
 Easy access to technology and knowledge
 More informed population with easy
access to information
 More democracy and demanding
population
 Naked Government and Naked
leadership

12
Train technology



Speed up to 480 KM/ hr.
DO you need to fly
Competitive advantage, reduction in cost of transportation,
infrastructure requirements, technology advancement ---13
WHERE WE WANT TO BE IN 30
YEARS TIME - THE VISION
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Vision Statement:
A transformed Ugandan society from a peasant to
a modern and prosperous country within 30 years
What the vision means
A competitive upper middle income country by
2040
Theme:
Accelerating Uganda’s Development to greater
Prosperity
15
UGANDA’S TARGETS FOR 2040
1.
Development Indicator
2.
3.
4.
5.
Per capita income
% of population below the poverty line
Income distribution(GINI Coefficient)
Sectoral composition of Agriculture
GDP (%)
Industry
Services
Labor force distribution in Agriculture
line
with
sectoral Industry
contribution (%)
Services
% share of national labor force employed
Manufactured exports as a % of total exports
Gross Capital Formation as % of GDP
Saving as a % of GDP
ICT goods & services as a % of total export
Technology up-take & diffusion(technology achievement
index TAI)
Public expenditure as a % share of R &D to GDP
Innovation as measured by patents registered per year
Electricity consumption per capita(kWh)
% population with access to electricity
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
Baseline
Status
USD 506
24.5
0.43
23.8
24.9
45.3
65.6
7.6
26.8
70.9
4.2
24.1
14.5
0
0.24
Target
2040
USD 9500
5
0.32
10
31
58
31
26
43
94
50
30
35
40
0.5
0.1
3
75
11
2.5
6000
3668
80
16
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
Water consumption per capita(m3)
% population with access to safe piped water
% of standard paved roads to total road network
% of cargo freight on rail to total freight
% of population in planned Urban
settlements
Rural
% level of urbanization
Labor Productivity (GDP Agriculture
per Worker - USD)
Industry
Services
Total
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Infant mortality rate per 1000 live births
Maternal mortality rate per 100,000
Under 5 mortality rate per 1000 live births
Child stunting as a % of under 5s
Literacy Rate (%)
Gender Related Development Index (GDI)
Population growth rate
Forest Cover (% land Area)
Wetland Cover - % of total area
26
15
4
3.5
51
0
13
390
3,550
1,830
1,017
51.5
63
310
96
33
73
0.51
3.2
15
8
600
80
80
80
100
100
60
6,790
24,820
25,513
19,770
85
4
15
8
0
95
0.9
2.4
24
13
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Growth Strategy
800
700
752
600
Upper Limit
Target
Lower Limit
GDP in US$, Billions
588
500
400
376
300
200
100
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2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
2025
2030
2035
2040
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Growth Strategy cont’d
2036-2040
2031-2035
2026-2030
2040
2021-2025
2035
2016-2020
2030
2012-2015
2020
2025
Real GDP (Local Currency) Growth Rates
2015
Nominal GDP at Market Prices (USD,
Billions)
2010
Economi
c
Sector
Total
GDP
17.0
19.3
29.2
50.
2
99.0
222.
3
580.5
8.44
8.58
8.35
8.22
8.07
7.80
Agric
3.8
4.2
5.5
8.2
13.8
26.7
60.1
5.24
5.37
5.15
5.02
4.88
4.62
Industry
4.5
5.4
8.5
15.
1
30.4
69.3
182.6
9.67
9.52
9.05
8.71
8.40
7.99
Services
8.7
9.7
15.2
27.
0
54.8
126.
2
337.8
9.30
9.35
9.05
8.85
8.65
8.33
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Sector Shares of GDP (Actual and
Forecasts)
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How to get there
Harnessing opportunities by strengthening the
fundamentals
THE OPPORTUNITIES
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Oil and Gas
 To date –only 40% of Albertan Graben explored,
about 3.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent
 Need to add value by construction of a refinery
 Development of supporting infrastructure (e.g.
pipelines)
 Benefits from secondary and tertiary industries
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Tourism
• Gorilla tracking
• Cultural
diversity
• Bird watching
• Community
tourism
• Water sports
• Butterfly
watching
◦
◦
◦
Potential of earning at least 12 billion dollars per year
Required improved infrastructure and diversifying tourism products
Establish a corporate Uganda Tourism Authority to replace the Uganda
Tourism Board to reduce pressure on national budget to support tourism
marketing and development
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Mineral Development
Over 27 commercially viable minerals notably; iron ore, phosphates, rare
earth minerals with a potential of creating primary and tertiary industries
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Industrialisation
 Based
on the local potential
 Geese approach (strategic
industries)
 Offshoring (BPOs)
 Approach: Gov’t direct
investment, PPPs, Industrial &
Economic Zones
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Agriculture
Commercialisation
 Mechanisation
 Agro based industries
 Irrigation
 Agriculture Zoning based on well
developed value chains

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Abundant Labor Force Opportunities
• Projections show that over 30 years, majority of Ugandans
(56%) will be young and productive labour force
• Comparatively cheap labour force in the global context
• Need to impact them with globally competitive skillsinnovators and drivers
• Countries like China will be releasing over 12 million jobs
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Other Opportunities
• Geographical positioning and trade
opportunities
• Regional integration – Markets, harmonising vision
• Location at the centre of a big region facilitating
connectivity
• Implementation of regional infrastructure protocols
very critical
• Critical for strategic regional political strategies
• Water resources
• Knowledge and ICT
• ICT as a business – global potential estimated at 1.6
trillion
• Proportion of ICT goods in total exports is 0%
compared to 56% -Philippines, 45% in Singapore and
Malaysia
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STRENGTHENING THE
FUNDAMENTALS
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Fundamentals
 The
key fundamentals required to
harness the opportunities for faster
growth are;
 Infrastructure (energy, transport, oil pipeline,
ICT and water)
 Human Resource
 Science, Technology, Engineering and
Innovations
 Peace security and defence
 Must
be to international standards and
globally competitive
31
Fundamentals- Transport
• Standard gauge rail – fast train (300 - 500KM/Hr)
• Good road network (freeways, express ways and
highways)
• 4 international airports
• Improved water transport
32
Fundamental- Energy
Current electricity consumption is at 75
kWh per Capita to change to 3668 kWh
per capita, (South Korea at 8502kWh,
Malaysia at 3668 kWh , South Africa at
4595kWh). Critical for industrialization
 Developing nuclear energy

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ICT Infrastructure
34
35
36
37
Urbanisation
Accelerate urbanisation from 15% to 60%
 Develop 5 Regional and 4 strategic Cities in
addition to GKMA
 Develop strategic towns
 Release land for agriculture
Approach:
 Provide prerequisite infrastructure &
services – light rail transport system,
creation of sate light cities, improving
livability etc.

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39
Human Resource Development

Target is to develop a globally competitive
human resource
◦ Build a modern world class education
system
◦ Set up research and development centres in
collaboration with international companies
◦ Encourage leading universities to set up
campuses in Uganda
◦ Change the curriculum system
◦ Emphasis of science, technology,
Engineering and innovation
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Science, technology, engineering and
innovations (STEI)
Innovation system spearheaded by
Government
 Technology incubation centres
 Engineering centres –engineering talents
 Research fund and venture capital fund
 Emphasis on bio-science and Nanotechnology- future

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NECESSARY DEV’T IN
OTHER KEY AREAS
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Raising level of social development
 Population-
sustainable age structure
 Improvement in health sector
◦ Facility based to household based Health
delivery system
◦ Curative to preventive system
◦ Focus on nutrition and public health
◦ Partnership with international hospitals
established here to provide specialised
care
◦ Universal health insurance system
through PPPs
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Social development ctd

Education and Literacy
◦
◦
◦
◦
Universal primary and secondary
Retention in school increased
Early talent identification
Change of education system- skills and training
44
Social development ctd

Social protection
◦ Universal pension system
◦ Care for the vulnerable –special protection
systems
◦ Human rights observation
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Governance









Promote National Unity and Cohesion
Compulsory National Service System
National value system
Bicameral Parliamentary System
Strengthening accountability systems
Strengthen independence of the Department
of Public Prosecution (DPP)
Decentralisation
National Foreign Policy – how it will impact
Vision implementation
Strengthen national guidance (establish NG
Commission)
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Crosscutting issues
Environment
 Climate change
 Gender


Human Rights

HIV/ AIDS
47
HOW TO GET THERE - STRATEGIES
& POLICY SHIFTS
48
Strategies
Review and change the architecture of
government service delivery system
 Adopt a quasi-market approach with a mix of
government investments in strategic areas and
private sector market driven actions
 Investment in better urban systems that enhance
productivity, livability and sustainability
 Pursue the strategy of industrialization and
establish a modern industrial system

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





Leapfrogging in the areas innovation,
technology and science, engineering, human
resource
development,
public
sector
management, and private sector development
Change citizens’ attitudes and mind sets
Implement Vision within framework of East
African Community and other regional blocs
Explore alternative financing mechanisms
Establish an infrastructure fund
Front-loading key strategic investments
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Priority interventions sequencing
AGRO
INDUSTRIES
MACHINE
TOOLS
HIGHER
TECHNOLOGY
HIGHER
TECHNOLOGY
HIGHER
TECHNOLOGY
ICT CITY
FERTILISERS
INDUSTRIAL
CHEMICALS
AERO SPACE
INDUSTRIES
AERO SPACE
INDUSTRIES
WATER FOR
PRODUCTION
IRON AND
STEEL
PETRO
CHEMICALS
HITECH
SERVICES
HITECH
SERVICES
HITECH
SERVICES
OIL & GAS
(REFINERY)
FERTILISERS
MODERNISE
INDUSTRIES
MODERNISE
INDUSTRIES
NANO & BIO
TECHNOLOGY
NANO & BIO
TECHNOLOGY
ICT
BUSINESS
OIL & GAS
(PIPE LINE)
IRON &
STEEL
ELECTRONICS
PUBLIC
SERVICE
REFORM
R&D &
INNOVATION
R&D &
INNOVATION
R&D &
INNOVATION
NDP 1
MICRO
MICRO
ELECTRONICS ELECTRONICS
R&D &
INNOVATION
ICT INFRASTRUCTURE
HEALTH SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT
HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT (EDUCATION)
RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
NDP 2
NDP 3
NDP 4
NDP 5
R&D &
INNOVATION
NDP 6
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IMPLEMENTATION




CNDPF-NDPs, SIPS, LGDPs,
GOVERNMENT BUDGET
OTHER PLANS
Financing Vision – sources of financing will
include; tax and non-tax revenues, PPPs,
concessional loans and grants, revenue from oil
and gas, borrowing from domestic and
international markets.
Other sources include; alternative financing
mechanisms to access significant funds from
commercial and investment banks at
concessional terms for front-loading
infrastructure development
52
Contributions to improve these
thoughts are welcome
Thank you for your kind
attention!
For God and My Country
[email protected]
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