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DRAFT NATIONAL VISION 2040 Vision: “A transformed Ugandan society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years” 1 Presentation Outline Background - Rationale and Context Where we are now Where we want to be in 30 years time -The Vision How to get there Strategies Priority interventions 2 Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework 3 Background - Rationale and Context • • • • • Long-term planning in Uganda Previous efforts in developing the vision frameworks:The case of 2025 Faster and coordinated transformation Reviews of emerging economies & globalisation trends Policy framework (Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework -2007) 4 WHY VISION 2025 NOT IMPLEMENTED Inadequate legal, policy and institutional framework (NPA Act 2002) MDGs - most funding donor Economics of the time- liberal economics 5 NEED FOR LONG- TERM Harmonized direction for many stakeholders Prioritization Long term projects – infrastructure Minimizing cost of development Optimizing competitiveness Worked for all Asian and European countries- Germany, China, Korea 6 WHERE WE ARE NOW SITUATION ANALYSIS 7 Economic Growth Performances of Several Countries (1960-2010) 8 550.00 18,000 500.00 16,000 450.00 14,000 400.00 12,000 350.00 300.00 10,000 250.00 8,000 200.00 6,000 150.00 4,000 100.00 2,000 50.00 0.00 GDP (US$ Millions) GDP per capita US$ GDP and GDP Per-capita Trends for Uganda 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year GDP (Current US$) GDP per capita 9 Our competitiveness 10 WHERE IS THE WORLD GOING 11 Where is world going Fewer dominant but strong industrial value chains (standard chartered, apple) Easy access to technology and knowledge More informed population with easy access to information More democracy and demanding population Naked Government and Naked leadership 12 Train technology Speed up to 480 KM/ hr. DO you need to fly Competitive advantage, reduction in cost of transportation, infrastructure requirements, technology advancement ---13 WHERE WE WANT TO BE IN 30 YEARS TIME - THE VISION 14 Vision Statement: A transformed Ugandan society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years What the vision means A competitive upper middle income country by 2040 Theme: Accelerating Uganda’s Development to greater Prosperity 15 UGANDA’S TARGETS FOR 2040 1. Development Indicator 2. 3. 4. 5. Per capita income % of population below the poverty line Income distribution(GINI Coefficient) Sectoral composition of Agriculture GDP (%) Industry Services Labor force distribution in Agriculture line with sectoral Industry contribution (%) Services % share of national labor force employed Manufactured exports as a % of total exports Gross Capital Formation as % of GDP Saving as a % of GDP ICT goods & services as a % of total export Technology up-take & diffusion(technology achievement index TAI) Public expenditure as a % share of R &D to GDP Innovation as measured by patents registered per year Electricity consumption per capita(kWh) % population with access to electricity 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Baseline Status USD 506 24.5 0.43 23.8 24.9 45.3 65.6 7.6 26.8 70.9 4.2 24.1 14.5 0 0.24 Target 2040 USD 9500 5 0.32 10 31 58 31 26 43 94 50 30 35 40 0.5 0.1 3 75 11 2.5 6000 3668 80 16 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. Water consumption per capita(m3) % population with access to safe piped water % of standard paved roads to total road network % of cargo freight on rail to total freight % of population in planned Urban settlements Rural % level of urbanization Labor Productivity (GDP Agriculture per Worker - USD) Industry Services Total Life expectancy at birth (years) Infant mortality rate per 1000 live births Maternal mortality rate per 100,000 Under 5 mortality rate per 1000 live births Child stunting as a % of under 5s Literacy Rate (%) Gender Related Development Index (GDI) Population growth rate Forest Cover (% land Area) Wetland Cover - % of total area 26 15 4 3.5 51 0 13 390 3,550 1,830 1,017 51.5 63 310 96 33 73 0.51 3.2 15 8 600 80 80 80 100 100 60 6,790 24,820 25,513 19,770 85 4 15 8 0 95 0.9 2.4 24 13 17 Growth Strategy 800 700 752 600 Upper Limit Target Lower Limit GDP in US$, Billions 588 500 400 376 300 200 100 17 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year 2025 2030 2035 2040 18 Growth Strategy cont’d 2036-2040 2031-2035 2026-2030 2040 2021-2025 2035 2016-2020 2030 2012-2015 2020 2025 Real GDP (Local Currency) Growth Rates 2015 Nominal GDP at Market Prices (USD, Billions) 2010 Economi c Sector Total GDP 17.0 19.3 29.2 50. 2 99.0 222. 3 580.5 8.44 8.58 8.35 8.22 8.07 7.80 Agric 3.8 4.2 5.5 8.2 13.8 26.7 60.1 5.24 5.37 5.15 5.02 4.88 4.62 Industry 4.5 5.4 8.5 15. 1 30.4 69.3 182.6 9.67 9.52 9.05 8.71 8.40 7.99 Services 8.7 9.7 15.2 27. 0 54.8 126. 2 337.8 9.30 9.35 9.05 8.85 8.65 8.33 19 Sector Shares of GDP (Actual and Forecasts) 20 How to get there Harnessing opportunities by strengthening the fundamentals THE OPPORTUNITIES 22 Oil and Gas To date –only 40% of Albertan Graben explored, about 3.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent Need to add value by construction of a refinery Development of supporting infrastructure (e.g. pipelines) Benefits from secondary and tertiary industries 23 Tourism • Gorilla tracking • Cultural diversity • Bird watching • Community tourism • Water sports • Butterfly watching ◦ ◦ ◦ Potential of earning at least 12 billion dollars per year Required improved infrastructure and diversifying tourism products Establish a corporate Uganda Tourism Authority to replace the Uganda Tourism Board to reduce pressure on national budget to support tourism marketing and development 24 Mineral Development Over 27 commercially viable minerals notably; iron ore, phosphates, rare earth minerals with a potential of creating primary and tertiary industries 25 Industrialisation Based on the local potential Geese approach (strategic industries) Offshoring (BPOs) Approach: Gov’t direct investment, PPPs, Industrial & Economic Zones 26 Agriculture Commercialisation Mechanisation Agro based industries Irrigation Agriculture Zoning based on well developed value chains 27 Abundant Labor Force Opportunities • Projections show that over 30 years, majority of Ugandans (56%) will be young and productive labour force • Comparatively cheap labour force in the global context • Need to impact them with globally competitive skillsinnovators and drivers • Countries like China will be releasing over 12 million jobs 28 Other Opportunities • Geographical positioning and trade opportunities • Regional integration – Markets, harmonising vision • Location at the centre of a big region facilitating connectivity • Implementation of regional infrastructure protocols very critical • Critical for strategic regional political strategies • Water resources • Knowledge and ICT • ICT as a business – global potential estimated at 1.6 trillion • Proportion of ICT goods in total exports is 0% compared to 56% -Philippines, 45% in Singapore and Malaysia 29 STRENGTHENING THE FUNDAMENTALS 30 Fundamentals The key fundamentals required to harness the opportunities for faster growth are; Infrastructure (energy, transport, oil pipeline, ICT and water) Human Resource Science, Technology, Engineering and Innovations Peace security and defence Must be to international standards and globally competitive 31 Fundamentals- Transport • Standard gauge rail – fast train (300 - 500KM/Hr) • Good road network (freeways, express ways and highways) • 4 international airports • Improved water transport 32 Fundamental- Energy Current electricity consumption is at 75 kWh per Capita to change to 3668 kWh per capita, (South Korea at 8502kWh, Malaysia at 3668 kWh , South Africa at 4595kWh). Critical for industrialization Developing nuclear energy 33 ICT Infrastructure 34 35 36 37 Urbanisation Accelerate urbanisation from 15% to 60% Develop 5 Regional and 4 strategic Cities in addition to GKMA Develop strategic towns Release land for agriculture Approach: Provide prerequisite infrastructure & services – light rail transport system, creation of sate light cities, improving livability etc. 38 39 Human Resource Development Target is to develop a globally competitive human resource ◦ Build a modern world class education system ◦ Set up research and development centres in collaboration with international companies ◦ Encourage leading universities to set up campuses in Uganda ◦ Change the curriculum system ◦ Emphasis of science, technology, Engineering and innovation 40 Science, technology, engineering and innovations (STEI) Innovation system spearheaded by Government Technology incubation centres Engineering centres –engineering talents Research fund and venture capital fund Emphasis on bio-science and Nanotechnology- future 41 NECESSARY DEV’T IN OTHER KEY AREAS 42 Raising level of social development Population- sustainable age structure Improvement in health sector ◦ Facility based to household based Health delivery system ◦ Curative to preventive system ◦ Focus on nutrition and public health ◦ Partnership with international hospitals established here to provide specialised care ◦ Universal health insurance system through PPPs 43 Social development ctd Education and Literacy ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Universal primary and secondary Retention in school increased Early talent identification Change of education system- skills and training 44 Social development ctd Social protection ◦ Universal pension system ◦ Care for the vulnerable –special protection systems ◦ Human rights observation 45 Governance Promote National Unity and Cohesion Compulsory National Service System National value system Bicameral Parliamentary System Strengthening accountability systems Strengthen independence of the Department of Public Prosecution (DPP) Decentralisation National Foreign Policy – how it will impact Vision implementation Strengthen national guidance (establish NG Commission) 46 Crosscutting issues Environment Climate change Gender Human Rights HIV/ AIDS 47 HOW TO GET THERE - STRATEGIES & POLICY SHIFTS 48 Strategies Review and change the architecture of government service delivery system Adopt a quasi-market approach with a mix of government investments in strategic areas and private sector market driven actions Investment in better urban systems that enhance productivity, livability and sustainability Pursue the strategy of industrialization and establish a modern industrial system 49 Leapfrogging in the areas innovation, technology and science, engineering, human resource development, public sector management, and private sector development Change citizens’ attitudes and mind sets Implement Vision within framework of East African Community and other regional blocs Explore alternative financing mechanisms Establish an infrastructure fund Front-loading key strategic investments 50 Priority interventions sequencing AGRO INDUSTRIES MACHINE TOOLS HIGHER TECHNOLOGY HIGHER TECHNOLOGY HIGHER TECHNOLOGY ICT CITY FERTILISERS INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS AERO SPACE INDUSTRIES AERO SPACE INDUSTRIES WATER FOR PRODUCTION IRON AND STEEL PETRO CHEMICALS HITECH SERVICES HITECH SERVICES HITECH SERVICES OIL & GAS (REFINERY) FERTILISERS MODERNISE INDUSTRIES MODERNISE INDUSTRIES NANO & BIO TECHNOLOGY NANO & BIO TECHNOLOGY ICT BUSINESS OIL & GAS (PIPE LINE) IRON & STEEL ELECTRONICS PUBLIC SERVICE REFORM R&D & INNOVATION R&D & INNOVATION R&D & INNOVATION NDP 1 MICRO MICRO ELECTRONICS ELECTRONICS R&D & INNOVATION ICT INFRASTRUCTURE HEALTH SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT (EDUCATION) RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE NDP 2 NDP 3 NDP 4 NDP 5 R&D & INNOVATION NDP 6 51 IMPLEMENTATION CNDPF-NDPs, SIPS, LGDPs, GOVERNMENT BUDGET OTHER PLANS Financing Vision – sources of financing will include; tax and non-tax revenues, PPPs, concessional loans and grants, revenue from oil and gas, borrowing from domestic and international markets. Other sources include; alternative financing mechanisms to access significant funds from commercial and investment banks at concessional terms for front-loading infrastructure development 52 Contributions to improve these thoughts are welcome Thank you for your kind attention! For God and My Country [email protected] 53