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Hadjibiros, K. 2012. Systems Ecology and Environmental Policy. Proc. Int. Conf.
“Ecology, Interdisciplinary Science and Practice”, Sofia, 25-26/10/12
Systems Ecology and Environmental Policy
AUTHOR: KIMON HADJIBIROS
Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,
National Technical University of Athens, 5, Iroon Polytechniou, 15780, Athens
Greece
e-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. Human Ecology formulates propositions and predictions associated
with complex social, economic and environmental issues. It emphasizes
problems of overpopulation, pollution and resource depletion. On the other
hand, a systemic approach allows the detection of basic concepts that can
contribute to the understanding of complex phenomena as well as to pointing
out inconsistencies and misunderstandings. Subjects such as holism, carrying
capacities, predictions about the collapse of industrial civilization etc. have
been propounded by ecological agents but uncertainties of competences and
methods and also the drift from critical thinking to practical ideology are not
always avoided. Today, however, it is ascertained that the ominous
predictions of the ‘70s about future environmental doom have not been
verified. This is connected with the insufficiencies of the approaches as well
as with the effective mediation of social interventions and technological
progress.
Key words: Human Ecology, carrying capacity, resources, Malthousianism,
holism, collapse of industrial civilization.
INTRODUCTION
According to “Encyclopedia Britannica”, the subject matter of Human
Ecology is man’s collective interaction with his environment. Although it is a
small branch of scientific knowledge and does not use a sociological
methodology, it examines the biological, environmental, demographic (Ehrlich
and Ehrlich 1970) and technological life conditions of social systems and
emphasizes their dependence on resources as well as the overpopulation and
pollution problems. It is based on ecological science’s approaches and on
material from many scientific fields, but not on an expressed and recognized
interdisciplinary approach. It focuses on man’s nature as an animal organism
of an artificial ecosystem and formulates propositions for sustainability,
quality of life and environmental responsibility. A basic idea of Human Ecology
(Odum 1971) is that “populution” (population+pollution) increases faster than
natural resources do, leading humanity to a dead-end. Thus, in order to
achieve the conservation of resources, it proposes a transformation of the
positive feedbacks (knowledge, power, productivity) of economic life to
negative ones, aiming at an ecological control of life quality and
environmental degradation. Resources are considered to be subject to the
saturation-depletion principle and this is assumed to be true in the case of a
biological community dynamics as well as in the cases of pollution phenomena
or of socio-economic problems such as the saturation of urban transportation.
The startling contrast with natural systems revealed by considering the
situation with respect to resources reveals the unstable nature of current
human situation (Watt 1973). Nevertheless, most respective approaches were
largely based on a priori ethical attitudes and ideological positions (Ramade
1974).
METHODOLOGY
Systems’ study requires a special methodology (Levins 1968). A system
is defined as a finite total of interacting parts that can be considered as one
unity. Its fundamental properties are: 1) it has limits; 2) it consists of
different parts; 3) it displays interactions among the parts; 4) it constitutes a
new entity, on a description level that is different from that of its parts
(Hadjibiros 2007). The concept of system contributes to a theoretical
approach to the organization of the differences observed in various
description levels of the world, such as physicochemical, biological,
psychological, social (Rossis 1979). The laws of each lower level are
completely compatible with the phenomena of higher level descriptions, but
they do not contain all the necessary concepts for understanding the
phenomena. The General Systems’ Theory searches for the general properties
and characteristics of systems’ behavior (Bertalanffy 1973). A system’s
response to an external perturbation can play an important role to its
behavior’s regulation. Cybernetics is defined as the science of control and
communication in animals and machines (Wiener 1948). Of special interest is
the negative feedback, where an external perturbation causes a feedback that
leads the system to equilibrium, serving the control. Negative feedback plays
a fundamental role in the regulative processes of many systems. On the
contrary, a positive feedback leads the system to an explosive behavior, that
is, out of control. In an organized system, cohesion, structure and hierarchy
serve a plan (Rossis 1986). Because of that, the fallacy of holism (F1) lurks on
a philosophical level, where the insufficiency of classical analysis and the need
for a systemic approach lead to the false assumption that the whole
constitutes a separate entity.
The state of a system is defined by the total of n variables that suffice
for a complete system description. Its temporal behavior may be depicted by
n two-dimensional graphic representations in relation to time. It can also be
depicted by a curve in the phase space of n dimensions with the elimination
of time, where the axes correspond to the variables. The system is in an
equilibrium point if it remains in the same state in the next temporal moment
too. Interactions of internal and external factors can cause perturbations,
leading the system temporarily or permanently away from a state of
equilibrium. If a factor, able to overturn the equilibrium, affects it, the system
could possibly find a new equilibrium. Interactions of predator-prey type can
cause permanent oscillations (Hadjibiros 2007). An equilibrium point is stable
when the system’s state tends to return to it after having departed from it.
There are various degrees of stability, depending on the amount of
perturbation that the equilibrium point can withstand. The system has the
property of resilience (Cancela da Fonseca 1977) when it is able to absorb
great perturbations. A system can display a continuous propensity for
increase, called impulse. An inverse propensity, constraint, may be displayed
due to environment limitations and hinder the system’s growth (Hadjibiros
2005). Some ecological or social systems display a succession of states,
namely an increase under the influence of impulse, equilibrium under the
influence of constraint, degradation due to catastrophe (Thom 1972), new
development towards equilibrium. In general, the course towards equilibrium
is slow whereas the course towards catastrophe is rapid. If the systemic
nature of phenomena is underestimated there may be fallacy (F2) and,
consequently, a false interpretation of equilibrium, stability, oscillations,
catastrophe, resilience etc.
A system’s temporal alteration gives time series of elements. A time
series can usually be analyzed (Usher 1973) in partial components: 1) longterm trend, that is, general curve slope; 2) periodic (daily, seasonal, yearly or
others) oscillations around the slope; 3) random movements. If the temporal
scale of the observations is much smaller that the temporal scale of an
alteration component (e.g. of an oscillation), the observer can come to
ungrounded conclusion (e.g. interpret a seasonal decline as a permanent
trend) and thus fallacy may be caused (F3).
A system’s progress towards equilibrium can be described by a logistic
model of the following type:
dN
----- = r N
dt
K-N
------K
where N is the system’s size and t is time. The constant r is the increase rate
while K is the carrying capacity, which is each time determined by the current
limiting factor. An ecological or an economic system can increase
exponentially, but if the available environmental resources are not unlimited,
sooner or later a limiting factor will appear. In other words, there is a
development of competition among the system’s elements that claim the
limited resource. The limiting factor is defined in a certain time scale.
Generally, there is one in each system development phase, but it can be
replaced by another one; consequently, when conditions change, consecutive
limiting factors may appear as well as corresponding carrying capacities
(Hadjibiros 2007). If the current carrying capacity is interpreted as an
insurmountable limitation, fallacy is created (F4).
A fallacy (F5) on a level of political philosophy is connected with
phenomena where the activism of social movements conduces to situations
where the necessary critical thinking for approaching complex human systems
is degenerated to practical ideology. In this case the social movement,
confined in itself, may be cut off the evolving real world (Althusser 1976).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The criticism against development employed by political ecology is fed
by the conclusions of the science of Human Ecology. The ecological discourse,
starting from a scientific basis, soon acquires ideological extensions, such as,
e.g. “small is beautiful” (Schumacher 1977). Political ecology forms the
ideology of a large part of the ecological and environmental movement and
the “Green” parties. As a rule, there is a more or less intense smouldering
opposition towards the industrial civilization and the modern western thinking.
The opposition is connected with a romantic sensitivity and reaction against
the industrial revolution and its consequences. The science of Ecology adopts
analyses (Odum 1971) based on the Malthusian view (Malthus 1798); as a
result, it creates reservations versus the trust towards scientific and technical
progress. During the 70s, there was a barrage of ominous predictions that
converged to the estimation that, in the beginning of the 21st century, the
planet’s condition would not be livable, that an environmental doom was to
be expected (Taylor 1970). Political ecology (Samuel 1973) developed
propositions about almost all fields of human activity, opposed development,
asked for abolition of tensions and promoted relaxation. Characteristically,
during the 70s, it was estimated that after 30 years no oil or aluminium would
be used (Gorz 1978). The main statement of political ecology was: industrial
societies generate contradictions (population, energy, raw materials, water,
foodstuffs, pollution) that will soon lead them to collapse. How can a
continuous economic growth be possible since natural resources are limited?
The question is obviously a modern version of the classic Malthusian idea.
The presence of limits in the magnification of human activity was documented
by plotting mathematical models for the world population, natural resources
and pollution, in the classical study of the Club of Rome (Meadows et al.
1972). As an antidote, zero growth was proposed. Later, more advanced and
detailed analyses specified relevant approaches to a multitude of fields
(Brown 1988-1998).
Ecological stands and predictions contain weak points that are partially
connected with the fallacy cases F1, F2, F3, F4 and F5, as they are analyzed
in the methodology section of this paper.
Preoccupied by the environmental crisis, distinguished theorists of
ecological thinking propose a return to the past and moral values (Rifkin
1998). Trust in the power of reason and the materialistic and mechanistic
view of the world are questioned, the return to the metaphysical spiritual
tradition is suggested: new values should be adopted on the basis that
everything is connected with anything else, that we are all one and we form
an evolving, instantly and enduringly interconnected fundamentally integral
reality; leading-edge science rediscovers and reaffirms a perennial insight that
occurs and recurs in the world’s spiritual and cultural traditions (Laszlo 2010).
Similar views appear also in the antisystemic thinking: the specific each time
natural and socioeconomic reality in space and time composes the
uninterrupted dialectic unity of the multidimensional and complex relations,
interdependencies and interactions of elements, phenomena and actions that
compose them in an organic whole, which is not the total of the discrete parts
that, supposedly, constitute them if they are mechanistically added up (Rokos
2003). The development of metaphysical ecological approaches was partially
based on a nostalgia for Arcadia, a mythological idyllic world where man and
nature lived in perfect harmony (Arditi 1997). The idea of nature as an entity
organized by a hidden power attracts all those who feel uncomfortable with
the skepticism of modern science and are frightened by the absence of design
in a Darwinian mechanistic universe. The utilitarian, instrumentalist scientific
attitude is rejected. It is expected, e.g., that a forest is something more than
a regulated mechanism, a system of interacting parts that can be studied
separately, replaced by others and perform through integrated management.
In fact, this expectation suggests that the presence of the forest’s order and
harmony should refer to a deeper unity of things, a kind of forest’s soul. The
polymorphism of the structure and function of the complex biological and
social systems is interpreted as a transcendental entity, which requires a
holistic approach (F1). Holism, strongly related to metaphysical views, lies at
the opposite of an integrated systemic approach. The example of Gaia
hypothesis (Lovelock 1992) is characteristic: it proposes that the planet
behaves as a super-organism that is environmentally self-regulated, just as
living organisms regulate their vital functions; the functionality that preserved
the natural environment suitable for life, today is turned against humanity
due to its abuses; the world has already passed the point of no return and it
is improbable that civilization may survive. Strangely, nuclear power is
presented as the only solution for the salvation of, e.g., the planet’s climate
(Lovelock 2006); this position constitutes a huge discrepancy, since the
rejection of nuclear power was a central pillar for the development of the
ecological movement.
Criticism may also be applied for the fact that science, without the
necessary supports, takes on a role of ideology (F5) supplying the system
with “ecological laws” that, to a significant degree, are arbitrary. Expecting
prognostic characteristics from the relevant ecological activity is not sound.
Moreover, the systemic nature of the phenomena is underestimated (F2). The
futuristic distortion, with the excuse of the importance and emergency of the
purpose,
causes
self-feeding
catastrophology.
Human
Ecology
is
a
complicated field that uses concepts of physical and social sciences and tends
to absorb new fields without making theoretically clear the implications that
ensue (Enzensberger 1975). Simplistic Manichaeistic dipoles are produced,
among others, such as civilization – bucolism (Stamou 2001). Moreover,
interpretation based on short-term data can lead to hasty conclusions that
probably ignore periodicity or the long-term trend of the phenomena (F3). In
reality, the predictions about collapse were not verified (Pantis 2001),
because the linear relation between development and environmental
burdening (consumption of natural resources, pollution) did not continue,
society did not stand like an immobilized spectator but played an active role,
technology brought about significant structural changes. In the case of
human population, carrying capacity changes because it is socially determined
(Stamou 2002). Thus, it is not insurmountable (F4), it is significantly
connected with the degree of development of productive forces, especially
technology.
According to a positivist philosophical position, spreading the scientific
attitude can be an effective antidote to the exaggerations of ideologists
(Kolakowski 1972). A relevant thesis was formulated by the “Heidelberg
Appeal”, on the occasion of the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, in 1992
(www.americanpolicy.org); it was signed by 4.000 scientists from 106
countries, with 72 Nobelists among them; they express their concern about
the emergence of an irrational ideology which is opposed to scientific and
industrial progress and impedes economic and social development; they
argue that the environmental damage caused by science can be healed with
more and not with less science and technology and that only in this way
overpopulation, starvation and worldwide diseases will be overcome. The
publication of the text caused high-spirited discussions and reactions, but the
Media did not give it any special publicity, in spite of the significant support by
the international scientific community.
The contemporary scientific practice proceeds in a utilitarian manner;
the huge accumulation of knowledge and technological development was thus
realized. Today, the idea, connected with the old technological optimism, that
anything is possible if enough energy and technology are available, can partly
rest on existing possibilities of decoupling environmental burdening from
economic growth. Indeed, modern technology presents increasing possibilities
for pollution abatement, reuse of waste, resources saving, cleaner production
of goods, prevention or dealing with environmental impacts, application of
environmental management tools. Spearheads towards this direction are nonmaterial development, recycling, as well as renewable energy sources which
could cover up to 100% of power production in the future. The predicted
depletion of oil has been postponed for a few decades not only due to the
discovery of additional deposits but also due to reduction of energy waste. A
significant refutation of the negative predictions has to do with aluminium, for
which the utilization of the appropriate technology, in this case recycling,
reverses the Malthusian view (F4). In the future, technology is expected to
create prospects of economic activities with lessening environmental
burdening that will gradually tend to zero (Hadjibiros 2009). New prospects
are also created in the social sciences, which are today benefitted by
technology as well as by a great amount of data that offer the possibility of
studying human behavior with an objective and quantitative way. The science
of networks will possibly give the means for the simulation of the behavior of
human societies’ systems aiming at the prevention or alleviation of crises
(Barabasi 2010). Consequently, new roads are paved even for the
development of the mythical science of Hari Seldon’s Psychohistory (Asimov
1951) where advanced mathematical approaches could be used to predict the
general course of future human history.
CONCLUSIONS
The predictions about collapse have not been verified mainly because
the approaches on which they were based had not taken into consideration
the complexity of the systems, the abilities of technology to widen the limits
and also the social adaptation of the development process due to the
negative feedback from the Malthusian concerns. Progress gradually
substitutes natural harmony with artificial stability that can be the result of a
rational management of the human systems’ equilibrium. A modern critique of
Human Ecology can be based on the criterion of reality both in relation to
what has happened in the last forty years and the choices of people about the
modern or not way that they want to live, about the place of their living etc;
the choices certainly take account of the ecological concerns, which are
widely available in the Media.
Further predictions about trends of environmental state, resource
abundance,
economic
and
social
sustainability
as
well
as
relevant
environmental policies should take into account the technological evolution
and be based on systemic methodology, collaboration of many scientific fields
and interdisciplinary, even transdisciplinary approach where a sound
socioeconomic component is involved.
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