Download Research and Study group *civil participation and social change*

How to interpret collected data?
Seminar #5
23.02.2017
© Zaytsev D.G.
Research goal
To identify the models of protest publics’
participation in processes of socio-political change
in different countries and regions of the world (North
and South America, North Africa and Middle East,
Asia)
© Zaytsev D.G., Ullanov A.A.
Book: structure & main authors
INTRODUCTION
PART I. Theoretical and methodological issues to study protests
PART II. Social Movements as the prerequisites and outcomes of Public
Uprisings of 2010s
PART III. “Protest Publics”: An Emergent Actor of Socio-Political Change
PART IV. Models of Protest Publics' Impact on Socio-Political Changes
CONCLUSION
© Zaytsev D.G., Ullanov A.A.
Assumptions (1-3)
A0: Protests of 2010s ≠ Social Movements
SEMINAR #1, 16.01.2016. Research Design. Part 1. BOOK, part II
A1: Social Movements are preconditions and possible outcomes of
the protest publics that emerged in the 2010s
A2: Protests of
SEMINAR
2010s#3.
= Publics,
30.01.2016.the
Research
NewDesign.
Emerging
Part 2. Actor
BOOK, part
of Change
III
A3: Protest Publics participate in socio-political change in different
SEMINAR #2. 24.01.2016. Research Design. Part 3. BOOK, part IV
models
© Zaytsev D.G., Ullanov A.A.
Conceptualization (2)
© Anufriev A., Zaytsev D. G. “Protest Publics” in Egypt and Turkey from 2011 Till Present Days: Assessment of
Impact on Political Changes // Comparative Politics (Russia). 2016. Vol. 7. No. 2(23). P. 34-47
Brazil: structure of the paper
 Protests in Brazil: Overview
 Factors of Political Changes in Brazil
 Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession
 Socio-cultural factors: lack of conventional social channels for selfexpression
 Political factors: deepening “legitimacy crisis” and request for
participatory democracy
 Brazilian Protests as “public assemblies” around “troubled message”
 Protestors’ Demands in 2013-2016: Participatory Democracy as a Unifying
Identity?
 Political changes in Brazil 2013-2016: from change in policy and politics to
“punctuated” institutional changes
 Government’s reply: co-opting or splitting the protestors?
 Conclusion: from oversight to direct participation in democracy
© Zaytsev D.G.
Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession
© Zaytsev D.G.
Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession
© Zaytsev D.G.
Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession
© Zaytsev D.G.
Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession
Country
Code
Indicator
Name
BRA
BRA
Investment in transport with
private participation (current Government expenditure on
US$)
education as % of GDP (%)
BRA
BRA
Health expenditure,
total (% of GDP)
GINI index (World
Bank estimate)
2000
1374500000
3,93814
7,02774504
2001
917200000
3,84304
7,19063692
59,33
2002
181000000
3,74435
7,13005982
58,62
2003
172900000
6,94296392
58,01
2004
433600000
3,97255
7,06793519
56,88
2005
713400000
4,47671
8,26702693
56,64
2006
450400000
4,86989
8,35570723
55,93
2007
3696500000
4,97835
8,28058988
55,23
2008
10476700000
5,2727
8,23798966
54,37
2009
8990300000
5,47154
8,64909707
53,87
2010
3699800000
5,64737
8,26736921
2011
6144900000
5,73953
8,0901717
53,1
2012
21979500000
5,91432
8,26089862
52,67
2013
11178100000
8,48312451
52,87
2014
32556600000
© Zaytsev D.G.
8,32283359
Protestors’ Demands in 2013-2016: Participatory Democracy as a
Unifying Identity?
© Zaytsev D.G.
Political changes in Brazil 2013-2016: from change in policy
and politics to “punctuated” institutional changes
POLICY CHANGE: transport, education, anti-corruption
SITUTIONAL CHANGE: Dilma support ranking fail,
impeachment
INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE: decline of democracy?
TABLE 4
TABLE 8
© Zaytsev D.G.
Government’s reply: co-opting or splitting the protestors?
Political crisis and elite split
General political consensus: democratic development
vs authoritarian modernization
TABLE 8
TABLE 9
© Zaytsev D.G.