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Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected
Climate Change Impacts
Edited by
NORMAN E. PETERS
US Geological Survey, Atlanta, USA
VALENTINA KRYSANOVA
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research, Germany
AHTI LEPISTÖ
Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki,
Finland
RAJENDRA PRASAD
Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India
MARTIN THOMS
CSIRO Land and Water, Australia
ROB WILBY
Loughborough University, UK
SARANTUYAA ZANDARYAA
UNESCO IHP, Paris, France
The proceedings of a symposium which brought together water
quality scientists for a dialogue on the evaluation of climate change
impacts on a wide range of water quality issues. The contributions
included herein cover a broad spectrum of water quality issues and
have been grouped accordingly:
– Seasonality and extreme event effects on water quality
– Effects on groundwater quality
– Climate change and water quality assessment
– Climate change and water temperature, and
– Climate change and water quality modelling.
This volume is a contribution to the
International Hydrological Programme (IHP)
of UNESCO.
IAHS Publ. 348 (2011) 186 + x pp. ISBN 978-1-907161-23-0 £50.00
Preface
Water quality describes the chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of water. Water
quality not only encompasses the myriad of naturally derived chemicals, but also several million
human-derived chemicals and incorporates a broadening suite of biological components such as
microbes and descriptions of habitats and biotic communities, i.e. plants and animals. The
physical characteristics include temperature, dissolved gases, and specific conductance, which is
a measure of the electrical transmissivity of water. In the absence of the effects of human
activities, water quality is primarily controlled by climate (precipitation and temperature) and
geology (lithology, geomorphology, soil). The understanding of basic processes affecting
chemical transport and transformation, and related effects on biota continues to improve, but is
orders of magnitude more complex than the understanding of the physical characteristics of
water. Water quality is a rapidly evolving environmental science discipline, primarily due to the
increasing demand on water resources and the intricate linkage between water quality and use,
particularly with the highly deleterious impacts of degraded water quality on human and
ecosystem health.
Water quality, when coupled with water quantity, determines the suitability of that water for a
particular use, including natural ecosystems, fisheries, recreation, potable water, agriculture, and
industry. The quantity and quality of freshwater reflect the combined effects of many processes
operating along hydrological pathways. Primary drivers for the availability of water are landscape
changes and patterns, and the processes affecting the timing, magnitude, and intensity of
precipitation, including global climate change. Furthermore, temperature, another climate change
characteristic, intricately affects chemical reactions and biological behaviours.
Although water quality is naturally linked to the lithosphere, water-quality characteristics are
increasingly dependent on the effects of human activities. Human activities create multiple and
competing pressures on land and water resources through agriculture, urbanization, mining,
industry, energy production, water supply and transportation (water and land). Population growth
and movement, e.g. urbanization, are two of the most important factors affecting water quality
through the increasing demand for resources, e.g. changes in agriculture and industry, and waste
management. These activities generally degrade water quality, while being very demanding for
specific water-quality criteria. An increasing area of interest to hydrologists, with major
consequences to resource managers, is the affects of climate change, another human-induced
phenomenon. Understanding of potential changes in climate through complex modelling has
advanced and provided downscaled estimates of changing temperature and precipitation. These
projections are being evaluated further from suites of basin- to global-scale models to determine
changes in water storage, particularly with respect to the distribution of snow and ice, and
hydrological impacts of extreme events. Water quality effects from projected changes in climate
have only recently been considered and evaluations are in progress. The research of climate
change affects on water quality is extremely complex given the continually changing affects of
human activities on air, land and water, but is urgently needed given the very high importance of
water quality for resource management.
The objective of the Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts
symposium was to bring water quality scientists together for a dialogue on the evaluation of
climate change impacts on a broad range of water quality issues. The authors of the papers of this
symposium were asked to provide input regarding the effects of climate change on the
focal issue of their paper. To this end, the 27 papers included herein provide a broad spectrum of
water quality issues and have been grouped accordingly. The sections include:
–
–
–
–
–
Seasonality and Extreme Event Effects on Water Quality
Effects on Groundwater Quality
Climate Change and Water Quality Assessment
Climate Change and Water Temperature, and
Climate Change and Water Quality Modelling.
The symposium was jointly organized by the IAHS International Commission on Water Quality
(ICWQ) and the International Commission on Continental Erosion (ICCE) and sponsored by the
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). This symposium
proceedings volume is a contribution to the International Hydrological Programme (IHP) of
UNESCO. Although ICWQ and ICCE provided direct input to the symposium, aspects of
hydrology, climate, biology, and hydrochemistry represent topical interests of other IAHS
Commissions and Committees.
PRINCIPLE EDITOR
Norman (Jake) Peters
US Geological Survey, 3039 Amwiler Rd, Suite 130
Atlanta, Georgia 30360-2824, USA
CO-EDITORS
Valentina Krysanova
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
PO Box 601203 Telegrafenberg, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
Ahti Lepistö
Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE, Integrated River Basin Research VTO
PO Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland
Rajendra Prasad
Andhra University
Visakhapatnam 530 003, India
Martin Thoms
CSIRO Land and Water, PMB Aitkenvale
Queensland 4814, Australia
Rob Wilby
Department of Geography, Loughborough University
Leicestershire LE11 3TU, UK
Sarantuyaa Zandaryaa
UNESCO, International Hydrological Programme (IHP)
Division of Water Sciences, Natural Sciences
1 rue Miollis, 75732 Paris Cedex 15, France
Contents
Preface by Norman (Jake) Peters, Valentina Krysanova, Ahti Lepistö,
Rajendra Prasad, Martin Thoms, Rob Wilby & Sarantuyaa Zandaryaa
1
v
Seasonality and Extreme Event Effects on Water Quality
Rainwater quality from 1983 to 2005 and during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods
in Visakhapatnam, India: a measure of industrial development
Y. Somu Naidu, P. Rajendra Prasad & C. Kavitha
3
Spatial analysis of Yamuna River water quality in pre- and post-monsoon periods R. B.
Singh & Vaneeta Chandna
8
Variation of nonpoint-source nutrient concentration in interflow affected by winter
processes in Shenyang, China
Chengwei Han, Shiguo Xu, Tianxin Lua, Tianxiang Wan & Jianwei Liu
14
Assessment of water quality variation in Amite River watershed under changing
climate and land use
Zhiqiang Deng & Abhijit A. Patil
20
A comparison of deflation basin (wetland) soils from wet and dry climatic zones
in Tasmania
Melissa Neave, Scott Rayburg & Ellen Curtis
26
Climate and contaminant transport: the role of within-storm variability on
contaminant transport by surface runoff
S. Payraudeau, G. S. McGrath & C. Hinz
32
Effects of extreme rainstorms on the export of diffuse pollution from an
agricultural watershed in eastern China
Xing Chen, Zhongbo Yu, Guangbai Cui, Qin Xu & Weiyu Liu
38
Reconstruction of 100-years variation in phosphorus load using the sediment
profile of an artificial lake in western Japan
Guangzhe Jin, Shin-Ichi Onodera, Atsuko Amano, Yuta Shimizu & Takaharu Sato
45
The effects of hydrological drought on water quality
Kazem Nosrati
51
viii
2
Effects on Groundwater Quality
Climate variability and its impacts on the spatial and temporal variation of
groundwater quality in an island
M. D. Nowbuth & S. Ungnoo
59
Influence of anthropogenic activities and seasonal variation on groundwater
quality of Kathmandu Valley using multivariate statistical analysis
Dhundi Raj Pathak, Akira Hiratsuka & Yosuke Yamashiki
67
Effects of agricultural activities on nitrate contamination of groundwater in a
Yellow River irrigated region
Yanjun Shen, Huimin Lei, Dawen Yang & Shinjiro Kanae
73
3
Climate Change and Water Quality Assessment
Increasing organic C and N fluxes from a northern boreal river basin to the sea Ahti
Lepistö & Pirkko Kortelainen
83
Potential impact of climate change on water quality in the Huai River: an analysis of
trends from 1959 to 2008
Fadong Li, Shuai Song, Zhenzhong Sun, Qiang Liu, Xiangdong Wu &
Guangshuai Zhao
89
Determining the nitrate contribution of the Red River to the Atchafalaya River in the
northern Gulf of Mexico under changing climate
Y. Jun Xu & April BryantMason
95
Drinking water quality under changing climate conditions
Branka Bracic Zeleznik, Barbara Cencur Curk & Petra Souvent
101
Azores volcanic lakes: factors affecting water quality
P. Antunes & F. C. Rodrigues
106
The water quality and quantity effects of biofuel operations in pine plantations of the
southeastern USA
J. Nettles, M. Youssef, J. Cacho, J. Grace, Z. Leggett & E. Sucre
115
ix
4
Climate Change and Water Temperature
Impacts of climate variability and change on water temperature in an urbanizing
Oregon basin, USA
Heejun Chang & Ken Lawler
123
Surface-water temperature variations and river corridor properties
Julia A. Toone, Robert L. Wilby & Stephen Rice
129
Long-term forecasting of flow and water temperature for cooling systems: case study of
the Rhone River, France Marie Bourqui, Frederic Hendrickx
& Nicolas Le Moine
135
5
Climate Change and Water Quality Modelling
Modelling climate change effects on nutrient discharges from the Baltic Sea catchment:
processes and results
Chantal Donnelly, Johan Strömqvist & Berit Arheimer
145
Impacts of climate change on regulating nitrogen retention in the River Weiße Elster in
Germany
M. Rode, H. Boyacioglu, T. Vetter & V. Krysanova
151
Modelling of the climate change effects on nitrogen loads in the Jizera catchment, Czech
Republic
Marta Martínková, Valentina Krysanova, Cornelia Hesse, Martin Hanel
& Šárka Blažková
159
Assessment of water quality under changing climate conditions in the Haihe River Basin,
China
Niu Cunwen, Jia Yangwen, Wang Hao, Zhou Zuhao, Qiu Yaqin, Bao Shujun
& Lv Caixia
165
Effect of climate change on nutrient discharge in a coastal area, western Japan Yuta
Shimizu, Shin-Ichi Onodera & Mitsuyo Saito
172
Predicting water quality responses to a changing climate: building an integrated
modelling framework
F. Dyer, S. El Sawah, E. Harrison, S. Broad, B. Croke, R. Norris & A. Jakeman
178
Key word index
185
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 3-7
Rainwater quality from 1983 to 2005 and during premonsoon and post-monsoon periods in Visakhapatnam,
India: a measure of industrial development
Y. SOMU NAIDU1, P. RAJENDRA PRASAD1 & C. KAVITHA2
1 Department of Geophysics, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India
[email protected]
2 Department of Electronics, GITAM University, Visakhapatnam, India
Abstract Rainwater quality has become an increasing environmental concern for developing nations.
The contributions of industrial operations, embedded into various components of the hydrological cycle,
affect water quality. A study on the time series of rainwater quality from Visakhapatnam, located on the
east coast of India, has revealed the impact of atmospheric pollutants originating from industry.
Industrial growth effects on rainwater quality were evaluated. An important observation is that rainwater
salinity is higher in the pre-monsoon months of February, March, April, May and June than in the
monsoon and post-monsoon months of July, August, September, October, November and December.
Electrical conductivity of rainwater increased from 1983 to 2005 and pH decreased. Furthermore, trends
in Cl-, SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, and Ca2+ concentrations and the concentration ratio of SO42- + NO3- to NH4+ +
Ca2+ reflect the increasing threat of acidic atmospheric deposition in the region.
Key words monsoon; industrial operations; aerosols; precipitation scavenging; wash-out; acid rain; India
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011) 8-13 .
Spatial analysis of Yamuna River water quality in pre- and
post-monsoon periods
R. B. SINGH & VANEETA CHANDNA
Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi-110007, India
[email protected]
Abstract Water quality has interrelationships with anthropogenic activities. The water quality status of
the Yamuna River, India, was evaluated spatially in terms of its physical, chemical and biological
parameters for both pre- and post-monsoon periods. For the River Yamuna, pH decreased from site 1 to
site 4 and then increased from site 5 to 7, showing the alkaline nature of river water. Dissolved oxygen
increased slightly at site 2 and then decreased markedly to 0 at site 10. As the river passes through the
Delhi metropolitan city, the pollution load increases from various sources (both point and nonpoint).
During the post-monsoon period, there are slight changes in the water quality of the river water due to
dilution. With the impending climate change and its impact on the Himalyan river system, the long-term
runoff is expected to decrease, whereas short-term flooding will pose more challenges for water quality
in terms of increasing concentration of pollutants.
Key words seasonal water quality; spatial analysis; Yamuna River; pollution variability; Delhi metropolitan region,
India
viii
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 14-19
Variation of nonpoint-source nutrient concentration in
interflow affected by winter processes in Shenyang, China
CHENGWEI HAN1, SHIGUO XU1, TIANXIN LUAN2, TIANXIANG WANG1 &
JIANWEI LIU1
1 Institute of Water and Environment Research, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
[email protected]
2 Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Liaoning Province, Shengyang, China
Abstract In the mid-latitude climatic region (35–65°), long-term winter processes with freeze–thaw
cycles (FTC) may have profound effects on nutrient transformation and soil structure, and consequently
impact nonpoint-source (NPS) nutrient concentration in interflow. Under realistic soil temperature
fluctuations, concentrations of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in interflow were investigated before
winter and after winter. At all sites, N and P concentrations varied markedly before and after winter. TN
interflow fluxes were 5 times higher after winter in arable land and grassland than before winter,
whereas TP concentrations were lower. There was a consistent variation between arable and grass before
and after winter. These results are mainly attributed to effects of winter processes on N and P
accumulation and transformation, and soil structure. Soil frost causes a reduction in runoff and in
nutrient uptake by vegetation, causing TN and TP concentrations in soils to increase during winter.
Further, FTC cause the disruption of soil structure, and induce more micro-aggregates. This effect
releases more N from the destroyed aggregate. In contrast, the TP concentration decreased, which is
likely due to the adsorption of P on exposed new surfaces and the high adsorption capacity of dissolved
P. This study suggests that NPS nutrient concentrations in interflow are impacted by winter processes in
the mid-latitude climatic region, and that interflow should be considered as an important hydrological
pathway of TN loss.
Key words nonpoint-source pollution; freeze–thaw cycles; nitrogen; phosphorus; interflow; Shenyang, China
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 20-25
Assessment of water quality variation in Amite River
watershed under changing climate and land use
ZHIQIANG DENG & ABHIJIT A. PATIL
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 708036405, USA
[email protected]
Abstract Water quality in the Amite River watershed in southeastern Louisiana, USA, has experienced
significant spatial and temporal variations over the past decades due to the impacts of land-use change
and climate change. To identify water quality variation trends in the watershed under the combined
effects of land-use and climate change, a temporal trend analysis and a spatial variation analysis were
conducted using a statistical approach and long-term time series data for land use, flow, and water
quality parameters including water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), total suspended solids (TSS)
and total organic carbon (TOC). To understand spatial variation in water quality, the data were split into
upstream (Darlington) and downstream (Port Vincent) sets. To understand temporal variation in water
quality, the data were split into two groups corresponding to the means of the two periods 1975–1990
and 1990–2005. Results of the statistical analysis show that the global warming has led to an increasing
trend in water temperature and a decreasing trend in instream DO, especially in summer months. The
mean DO concentration at Darlington dropped from 8.35 mg/L before 1990 to 5.90 mg/L after 1990 due
to climate change. The DO concentration at Port Vincent further dropped from 6.76 mg/L before 1990
to 5.75 mg/L after 1990 due to combined effects of land-use and climate change. The DO variation
ix
follows a normal distribution. The TSS concentrations were higher at downstream sites in general due to
urban development, but no significant temporal variation trend was observed. The TOC concentrations
increased over the past decades. Land cover and land-use change also produced a significant increase in
TOC concentrations from upstream to downstream sites. The resuts demonstrate that land-use and
climate change may adversely affect water quality and the impact of land use and climate change should
be taken into account in Total Maximum Daily Load development and water resources management.
Key words watershed; water quality variation; land use; climate change; Amite River, USA
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 26-31
A comparison of deflation basin (wetland) soils from wet and
dry climatic zones in Tasmania
MELISSA NEAVE, SCOTT RAYBURG & ELLEN CURTIS
Centre for Environmental Sustainability, University of Technology, Sydney, 15 Broadway, Ultimo,
New South Wales 2007, Australia
[email protected]
Abstract Deflation basins, or shallow depressions formed by wind erosion, are found in many semi-arid
regions around the world. Because these features are topographic lows they become sites of water
accumulation and are often associated with wetlands that represent important refugia for biota in dry
environments. Despite being important habitats little is known about the relationship between water and
sediment in these features. This study assesses soil geochemical properties from 50 wet-climate and 39
dry-climate deflation basins in Tasmania. The results reveal clear differences between wet-climate and
dry-climate deflation basin soils. Macronutrients typically have higher concentrations in wet-climate
soils (with the exception of potassium and calcium) while metals and other trace elements typically have
higher concentrations in dry-climate soils. These findings have important implications for wetland
biological-soil associations, with high plant productivity likely in wet-climate deflation basins as a result
of both favourable nutrient status and better water availability.
Key words water balance; geochemistry; nutrients; trace elements; Tasmania, Australia
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 32-37
Climate and contaminant transport: the role of within-storm
variability on contaminant transport by surface runoff
S. PAYRAUDEAU1,2, G. S. McGRATH2 & C. HINZ2
1 Laboratory of Hydrology and Geochemistry of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France
[email protected]
2 School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia
Abstract The impact of climate drivers on contaminant transport has been largely neglected. Rainfall
variability within a storm event can have a significant impact on the amount of contaminant transport by
surface runoff. We seek to better understand how rainfall patterns impact contaminant transport
depending upon pesticides characteristics. A bounded random cascade approach is used to generate an
ensemble of rain events with specific Intensity–Duration–Frequency characteristics. We explore the
effects of the partitioning of rainfall and chemical between fast surface runoff and slow flow in the soil
matrix. The hydraulic properties, i.e. effective porosity, suction head and saturated hydraulic
x
conductivity, of a vineyard clay loam soil are investigated. Ten years of 6-min resolution rainfall data
from the Alsatian vineyard in France are used to derive the cascade and Intensity–Duration–Frequency
relationships. Pesticide transport, both by runoff and infiltration, are modelled by a near-surface mixing
model and Green-Ampt infiltration. Much smaller pesticide loading occurred for more weakly and more
strongly adsorbing pesticides. The patterns of rainfall generating large surface runoff did not necessarily
associate with large pesticide loadings depending on pesticide adsorption. We show that potential shifts
in rainfall patterns within storms dramatically impact the frequency of contamination events, even
without changes in storm duration and mean intensity return intervals. The framework developed allows
a better understanding of risk of pesticide transport by rapid flow processes under changing climate
conditions.
Key words pesticides; rainfall; runoff; modelling
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 32-37
Climate and contaminant transport: the role of within-storm
variability on contaminant transport by surface runoff
S. PAYRAUDEAU1,2, G. S. McGRATH2 & C. HINZ2
1 Laboratory of Hydrology and Geochemistry of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France
[email protected]
2 School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia
Abstract The impact of climate drivers on contaminant transport has been largely neglected. Rainfall
variability within a storm event can have a significant impact on the amount of contaminant transport by
surface runoff. We seek to better understand how rainfall patterns impact contaminant transport
depending upon pesticides characteristics. A bounded random cascade approach is used to generate an
ensemble of rain events with specific Intensity–Duration–Frequency characteristics. We explore the
effects of the partitioning of rainfall and chemical between fast surface runoff and slow flow in the soil
matrix. The hydraulic properties, i.e. effective porosity, suction head and saturated hydraulic
conductivity, of a vineyard clay loam soil are investigated. Ten years of 6-min resolution rainfall data
from the Alsatian vineyard in France are used to derive the cascade and Intensity–Duration–Frequency
relationships. Pesticide transport, both by runoff and infiltration, are modelled by a near-surface mixing
model and Green-Ampt infiltration. Much smaller pesticide loading occurred for more weakly and more
strongly adsorbing pesticides. The patterns of rainfall generating large surface runoff did not necessarily
associate with large pesticide loadings depending on pesticide adsorption. We show that potential shifts
in rainfall patterns within storms dramatically impact the frequency of contamination events, even
without changes in storm duration and mean intensity return intervals. The framework developed allows
a better understanding of risk of pesticide transport by rapid flow processes under changing climate
conditions.
Key words pesticides; rainfall; runoff; modelling
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 38-44
Effects of extreme rainstorms on the export of diffuse
pollution from an agricultural watershed in eastern China
XING CHEN1, ZHONGBO YU1,2, GUANGBAI CUI1, QIN XU3 & WEIYU LIU1
1 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, no. 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China
[email protected]
2 Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada 89154-4010, USA
xi
3 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, NHRI, Nanjing, 210029, China
Abstract Agriculture is an important contributor to diffuse pollution in the aquatic environment system.
The exact transfer of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in an agriculturally dominated area is still poorly
understood. Export of pollutants shows significant spatial and temporal variation and the relevant factors
are complex and nonlinear in nature. There has been a dramatic increase of synthetic fertilizer usage in
southern China during recent decades due to decreasing farmland and increasing food demand. Massive
N and P fertilizer application has led to many environmental problems, especially eutrophication.
Research has shown that extreme rainstorms will increase in frequency with climate change. The
objective of this study is to examine the diffuse agricultural pollution transfer at the watershed-scale and
field-scale through event-based, on-site observation and sampling. Seven years of experiments carried
out in Meilin watershed demonstrate the export of significant quantities of nutrients during high
intensity rainstorms. Based on detailed field experiments, the N and P transfer in different seasons and
land covers is described.
Key words extreme rainstorms; nitrogen; phosphorus; agriculture; field experiment; Meilin watershed, China
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011).45-50
Reconstruction of 100-years variation in phosphorus load
using the sediment profile of an artificial lake in western
Japan
GUANGZHE JIN1, SHIN-ICHI ONODERA1, ATSUKO AMANO2,
YUTA SHIMIZU1 &TAKAHARU SATO1
1 Graduate School of Integrated Arts and Science, Hiroshima University, 1-7-1, Kagamiyama , Higashi-Hiroshima ,
Hiroshima 7398521, Japan
[email protected]
2 Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 1-1-1 Higashi,
Tsukuba 305-8567, Japan
Abstract In this research, the phosphorus (P) discharge was reconstructed for the last 100 years. We
used the 210Pb and 137Cs activities to date a core sample. The total phosphorus (TP) and the total
inorganic phosphorus (TIP) in the sediment showed a slightly decreasing trend with depth and a peak of
P content at the depth with an age of around 1970s. This suggests eutrophication in Kojima Lake, Japan,
during the last century and a peak of nutrient load around the 1970s. In addition, TP and TIP contents in
the sediment indicated yearly variations. These variations are not affected by annual precipitation, local
population and paddy field area; in contrast, they are related to the annual number of rainstorms with
daily rainfall over 100 mm. This suggests that most of the TP load is transported in stormflows during
extreme rainstorms. An increase in the number of torrential rainstorms is assumed to increase the P that
is transported to the ocean.
Key words sediment; phosphorus; precipitation; extreme events; rainstorms; Japan
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 45-50
The effects of hydrological drought on water quality
KAZEM NOSRATI
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
[email protected]
xii
Abstract Management and conservation of water resources are critical to human welfare. The high
demands for water of an increasing world population have focused our attention on water resources
quality and quantity management. Climate change is likely to have significant effects on hydrological
regimes (i.e. low flows and high flows), affecting both water quantity and water quality. Although
climate change impacts on water quantity are widely recognized, little is known about the impacts
during low flow periods (i.e. hydrological drought). The objective of this study was to assess the effects
of hydrological droughts on the water quality in Mazandaran Province, Iran, based on analysis of the
low flow index and existing water quality data. In view of this, 1-day low flows, as a measure of
hydrological drought, were calculated for 15 water years (1991–2006) at six monitoring stations. Eleven
water quality parameters were extracted during the low flows from the water quality data. Water quality
during these droughts was investigated and compared to water quality during high flows. The pattern
and magnitude of the statistically significant responses (t-test, p < 0.05) varied among sites, i.e. Cl- and
HCO3- at Sefidchah, Ca2+ at Gelvard, sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), Na + and SO42- at the Abloo station,
Mg2+, Ca2+, HCO3- and total dissolved solids (TDS) at Darabkola, and SAR, Cl-, Na+, electrical
conductivity (EC) and TDS at Rig Cheshmeh. We can conclude that data regarding other environmental
changes, such as land use, will be needed to further elucidate the response of water quality to droughts.
Key words hydrological drought; low flow index; water quality; Mazandaran province, Iran
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 59-66
Climate variability and its impacts on the spatial and
temporal variation of groundwater quality in an island
M. D. NOWBUTH & S. UNGNOO
Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Mauritius, Mauritius
[email protected]
Abstract The island of Mauritius exploits both surface and groundwater to cater for its demands.
Currently groundwater accounts for slightly more than 50% of the total domestic water demand. The
island is volcanic in nature and is characterised by vesicular fractured basalts and large caverns. This
highly permeable geology renders the groundwater bodies highly vulnerable to agricultural activities,
urban runoff and disposal of wastewater. The local water authority monitors the quality of groundwater
on a regular basis as a precautionary measure. So far, data collected have shown that only nitrate levels
were on the high side with an average value of around 28mg/L; the remaining physicochemical
parameters have always been within permissible limits. However, recently the groundwater quality data
have showed that the pH values at a few selected boreholes were declining over time. Data collected
from 2007 to 2010 indicated that the pH values varied in the range from 6 to 7 for 80% of the time.
Given that the aquifers of the island are in hydraulic contact with the sea, seawater intrusion could have
been a potential cause of this low pH trend, but this possibility was ruled out since the boreholes tested
were located inland. The other potential causes of the low pH were the change in rainfall patterns, the
pollution from land-use activities, the change in pumping rates at the boreholes, and the geological
structure of the island. Latest figures on long-term average rainfall noted that the island has been
recording less rainfall with time. Long-term average annual rainfall value was 2260 mm for the period
1931–1960, and this dropped to 1993 mm for the period 1971–2000. The drop in rainfall recorded is
also reflected in the recharge to the aquifers, when the groundwater levels are plotted over time. A
correlation coefficient of 0.5 was obtained between monthly rainfall and weekly values of groundwater
levels. Impacts of land-use activities were investigated by testing the quality of groundwater at nearby
wells, and here also the results indicated the same declining trend in pH values. Historical values of the
exploitation of groundwater at these boreholes revealed no drastic change in pumping rates over time, so
the impact of pumping was also ruled out. Another potential cause of the declining trend in pH is the
possible presence of deep volcanic activities, which cannot be overlooked, but this cause is yet to be
investigated. This study however helped to highlight the need for sound water resource management
policies for a small island.
Key words water; rivers; groundwater; Mauritius
xiii
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 67-72
Influence of anthropogenic activities and seasonal variation
on groundwater quality of Kathmandu Valley using
multivariate statistical analysis
DHUNDI RAJ PATHAK1,2, AKIRA HIRATSUKA3 & YOSUKE YAMASHIKI4
1 Solid Waste Management & Resource Mobilization Centre, Ministry of Local Development, Government of Nepal,
Kathmandu, Nepal
[email protected]
2 Engineering & Geotechnical (E. & G.) Consult (P) Ltd, Kathmandu, Nepal
3 Department of Civil Engineering, Osaka Sangyo University, 3-1-1 Nakagaito, Daito, Osaka 5748530, Japan
4 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
Abstract Increasing anthropogenic activities in Kathmandu, the main urban centre of Nepal, have
mounted heavy stresses on groundwater quantity and quality. Changing climate reflected by significant
annual variations in temperature and precipitation may further exacerbate the situation, which will have
a direct impact on groundwater levels, reserves and quality. In this study, several water quality
parameters were used as possible indicators to trace the impact of anthropogenic activities on the
groundwater quality of Kathmandu using multivariate statistical analysis. Impact of climatic and
seasonal variations on groundwater quality was also discussed. Compared to the dry season,
groundwater sources sampled during the wet season were more contaminated. The reasons for higher
contamination levels during the wet season were probably due to the high recharge resulting in a
shallow water table, and supplemented by leakages from septic tanks, haphazard disposal of solid waste
and sewage.
Key words multivariate statistical analysis; groundwater quality; anthropogenic activities; climate change;
seasonal variation; Kathmandu, Nepal
____________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 73-80
Effects of agricultural activities on nitrate contamination of
groundwater in a Yellow River irrigated region
YANJUN SHEN1, HUIMIN LEI2, DAWEN YANG2 & SHINJIRO KANAE3
1 Center for Agricultural Resources Research, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Huaizhong Rd. 286,
Shijiazhuang 050021, China
[email protected]
2
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing 100084, China
3
Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, Komaba 4-6-1, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan
Abstract Agricultural-induced increase of nitrate (NO3-) loading in groundwater is a worldwide
problem. This study investigates the impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater NO 3- pollution in
a Yellow River irrigated region. The agricultural land use patterns are dependent on the land and water
conditions. Besides wheat–maize rotation, the most popular cultivation pattern, other patterns with high
production/ income, such as greenhouse vegetables, watermelon–cotton, are also widely adopted. Nfertilizer is excessively applied for all land-use patterns, with the annual amount ranging from 500 to
1420 kg N ha-1. The NO3- loading in groundwater has large seasonal variation mainly caused by
agricultural activities. Even in the best water quality season, 4 out of 27 samples show NO 3concentrations in excess of the drinking water standard, with a maximum NO3- concentration in well
water of 100 mg NO3- L-1. The shallow groundwater of the study region, combined with poor water and
NO3- management practices, are creating a long-term legacy of contamination.
Key words nitrate leaching; groundwater; irrigation; agriculture; land use; Yellow River
xiv
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 83-88
Increasing organic C and N fluxes from a northern boreal
river basin to the sea
AHTI LEPISTÖ & PIRKKO KORTELAINEN
Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, PO Box 140, FI-00251 Helsinki, Finland
[email protected]
Abstract Increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in lakes and streams
across Europe and North America have been reported. The widespread occurrence of these phenomena
indicates large-scale causes, e.g. enhanced decomposition of organic soils, changes in hydrology or
decreased acid deposition. The Simojoki River basin (3160 km2) is located in the Northern Boreal Zone
where human impacts are minor. Long-term changes (30–40 years) of organic C and N concentrations
and fluxes in the Simojoki River system were studied: both TOC and TON concentrations were
increasing, fluctuating between droughts and wet periods. Highest concentrations were detected in
1998–2000 during a period of very high flows, after the drought period of 1994–1997. The average TOC
flux increased by 38% during the 1990s compared with the 1980s, while the average TON flux during
the same period increased even more, by 42%. Runoff accounts for part but not all of the increase in the
TOC and TON outputs. Since 2000, the fluxes have decreased to slightly lower levels but year-to-year
variability has remained considerable. Multiple effects are probable, i.e. changes in both hydrology and
in catchment soils have impacts on these increasing fluxes.
Key words organic carbon; organic nitrogen; fluxes; climate change; river basin; boreal zone; Finland
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 89-94
Potential impact of climate change on water quality in the
Huai River: an analysis of trends from 1959 to 2008
FADONG LI1, SHUAI SONG1,3, ZHENZHONG SUN1,3, QIANG LIU2,
XIANGDONG WU2 & GUANGSHUAI ZHAO1,3
1 Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural
Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
[email protected]; [email protected]
2
Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
3
Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China
Abstract Historical observations and model simulations have suggested that climate change can
significantly affect the hydrology of the Huai River, the sixth largest river in China. However, relatively
little is known regarding the effect of climate change on water quality. Climate change trends including
air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and runoff were assessed at four typical stations along the
Huai River and were analysed by the Mann-Kendall test for statistical significance. The annual mean air
temperature increased significantly, along with a significant decrease in evaporation. No significant
increasing or decreasing trends were found for precipitation or runoff. Water quality did not change
significantly but the concentrations of major ions increased to some extent. Ammonium (NH 4-N) and
chemical oxygen demand (CODMn) appeared to increase with lower flow; however, these variables are
more likely controlled by pollutant content in effluent drainage.
Key words climate change; water quality
xv
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 95-100
Determining the nitrate contribution of the Red River to the
Atchafalaya River in the northern Gulf of Mexico under
changing climate
Y. JUN XU & APRIL BRYANTMASON
Louisiana State University and LSU Agricultural Center, School of Renewable Natural Resources, Baton Rouge,
USA
[email protected]
Abstract The Mississippi-Atchafalaya River system exports each year over 1.2  106 tonnes of nitrate
nitrogen into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The excess nutrient load caused by intensive agriculture in
the Upper Mississippi River Basin has been attributed to being a major cause of the hypoxic zone in the
Gulf. In addition to the land use effect, future climate change may further modify regional hydrology
and nutrient fluxes from land to coastal regions. This study was conducted to quantify nitrate mass
loading from the Red River, the last major tributary to the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River system, and to
assess the effect of future precipitation change in the Red River Basin on its nitrate input into the
Atchafalaya River, which is formed by the confluence of the Red River and the Mississippi River via a
diversion control structure in Louisiana. Daily river discharge at the diversion structure and the
Atchafalaya was gathered for 2007–2009 to estimate the flow of the Red River. Biweekly–monthly
nitrate concentrations in the Red River and the Atchafalaya River were measured for the same period to
determine the Red River’s contribution to the total nitrate mass load in the Atchafalaya River. A
precipitation change projection based on the HadCM3 model output for IPCC B1 scenario for the 21st
century was taken to discern potential changes in discharge and riverine nitrate load from the Red River
Basin. We found that despite making up for nearly one third of the total flow in the Atchafalaya River,
the Red River exported a marginal amount of nitrate, namely only about 3% of the total nitrate mass
load in the Atchafalaya. With a 6% projected decline in precipitation, nitrate input from the Red River
would likely decrease in the future, especially during the drier summer months.
Key words riverine nitrogen; nitrate; climate change; Red River; Mississippi-Atchafalaya River; Gulf of Mexico
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 101-105
Drinking water quality under changing climate conditions
BRANKA BRACIC ZELEZNIK1, BARBARA CENCUR CURK2 &
PETRA SOUVENT3
1 Public Water Utility JP Vodovod-Kanalizacija d.o.o., Ljubljana, Vodovodna cesta 90, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
[email protected]
2 University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Engineering, Aškerčeva 12, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
3 Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, The Environmental Agency of Republic of Slovenia, Vojkova 1b,
1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
Abstract Ljubljana field gravel sandy aquifer is one of the most important alluvial aquifers in Slovenia
and is a source of drinking water for almost 300 000 inhabitants. More than 75% of the aquifer lies
beneath urbanised and agricultural areas. The water field Jarski prod is situated on the left bank of the
Sava River. The groundwater is recharged by more than 50% from the Sava River and about 40% from
precipitation. Heavy and intense rainstorms in the past have affected groundwater quality in the water
field Jarski prod. In one of the wells, VD Jarski prod, E. coli and coliform bacteria were detected in the
xvi
groundwater. In order to assess the impact of heavy rainstorms on groundwater quality and to design an
early warning system, a field UV-VIS spectrometer was installed for continuous monitoring of the
critical parameters. We have analysed the effects of two extreme rainstorms on groundwater quality.
Key words gravel aquifer; groundwater; microbiological pollution; UV-VIS spectrometer; extreme rainfall
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 106-114
Azores volcanic lakes: factors affecting water quality
P. ANTUNES & F. C. RODRIGUES
Centro de Investigação e Tecnologias Agrárias dos Açores (CITA-A), Universidade dos Açores, Açores
[email protected]
Abstract Azorean lakes represent strategic sources of freshwater and some supply water for human
consumption. Several samples were collected from 13 volcanic lakes on four different islands. The lakes
are cold, pH values ranged between 4.2 and 9.9 and demonstrated low levels of mineralization, except
for Furnas do Enxofre, due to the input of volcanic gases that are responsible for the highest CO2 and
acidification of the lake. The lake waters were generally fresh and of Na-Cl and Na-HCO3 types. The
highest decline in lake water quality is related to anthropogenic pressure. Although the São Miguel lakes
demonstrate a volcanic signature, the effect of the volcano is not a significant contributor to water
quality decline, except in the case of Furnas, for which ion charge increased due to the thermal water
input and volatile degasification. However, for Furna do Enxofre, the lake is highly contaminated by
volcanic fluids. Global warming will destroy the normal balance of water supply. During winter, the
greater frequency of precipitation events will increase the input of fertilizers and sediments, causing an
increase in water quality degradation. Temperature increases are expected to combine with water
shortages due to increased evaporation to decrease lake water volume. Eutrophication is expected to
worsen. Consequently, it is hypothesized that climate change will generally lead to an increased water
quality degradation of these strategic water reservoirs.
Key words volcanic lakes; eutrophication; volcanic fluids contamination;
climate change
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 115-120
The water quality and quantity effects of biofuel operations
in pine plantations of the southeastern USA
J. NETTLES1, M. YOUSSEF2, J. CACHO2, J. GRACE3, Z. LEGGETT1 & E.
SUCRE1
1 Weyerhaeuser Company, Columbus, Mississippi, USA
[email protected]
2 North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
3 US Forest Service, Auburn, Alabama, USA
Abstract Working alongside operational trials, a comprehensive research programme was developed to
evaluate sustainability, life-cycle analysis, soil productivity, wildlife, and water resource impacts. The
hydrology field studies consist of three sets of forested watersheds, each with mid-rotation pine
reference, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) interplanted, typical silvicultural, and switchgrass only subwatershed treatments. Two of the three locations will also have a woody biomass understory treatment.
Each of the 14 sub-watersheds is instrumented and collecting detailed hydrology, water quality, and
climate data. While these on-going, detailed studies are necessary for understanding processes such as
field evapotranspiration and nutrient cycling, three shorter-term, complementary studies of intercropped
xvii
sites were completed: groundwater table response and soil compaction in artificially drained blocks in
North Carolina; soil moisture response and soil compaction in an uplands site in Mississippi; and
sediment production across operational tracts in Mississippi and Alabama. The results of these three
studies are presented, along with the large watershed plan and status, and implications under possible
climate change scenarios.
Key words silviculture; switchgrass; intercropping; biofuels; sustainability; erosion; evapotranspiration
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 123-128
Impacts of climate variability and change on water
temperature in an urbanizing Oregon basin, USA
HEEJUN CHANG1 & KEN LAWLER2
1 Department of Geography, Portland State University, 1721 SW Broadway, Portland, Oregon 97201, USA
[email protected]
2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon 97201, USA
(now with Geosyntec Consultants)
Abstract Climate variability and change can impose significant stresses on water quality. Water
temperature is one important measure of stream health, and is directly affected by two expected
ramifications of climate change: rising air temperature and reduced summer streamflow. We
investigated the effects of hydroclimatic variability and potential warming on water temperature in the
mainstem of the Tualatin River in Oregon. Analysis of US Geological Survey data for the period 1991–
2009 shows that the temporal variations of water temperature can be best explained by lagged air
temperature and streamflow amount (R2 = 0.80). Simulations of synthetic ambient warming (1.5°C,
3°C) and streamflow decline (10%, 20%) scenarios using the water quality model CE-QUAL-W2
showed that: (1) summer water temperature increases are between 45 and 60% of ambient temperature
increases, and (2) streamflow decline has a noticeable, but minor impact on water temperature. The
number of days on which the 7-day running average of water temperature exceeded 20°C increased
substantially during summer months. The spatial extent of reaches that violate the threshold value of
temperature also expanded under the combined scenarios. When riparian areas are completely vegetated,
water temperatures fall below the threshold level on the majority of summer days. Results of this study
would be useful for establishing adaptation strategies in water temperature management under climate
change scenarios.
Key words climate change; water temperature; flow; urban basin; Tualatin
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 129-134
Surface-water temperature variations and river corridor
properties
JULIA A. TOONE, ROBERT L. WILBY & STEPHEN RICE
Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
[email protected]
Abstract River water temperature (Tw) is an important control of the functioning of freshwater
ecosystems. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase Tw over coming decades, with
implications for the vitality and composition of plant and animal communities. It has been suggested
that planting riparian woodlands along river corridors could provide thermal refugia by shading the
channel. This paper describes a pilot survey of Tw variations along two rivers in the English Peak
District linked to regional air temperature (Ta) trends, local riparian features, and wider physiographic
xviii
context. The nine sites exhibit diverse channel and riparian properties including morphology, sediment
coarseness, water depth, shading, distance from source, proximity of tributaries and drainage ditches,
channel aspect, sinuosity, slope and roughness. At the most sensitive site Tw has increased by
~0.2°C/year since 1995, partly due to changes in measurement times. Greatest sensitivity of Tw to Ta is
found in the middle reaches of the River Manifold where there is relatively little riparian shade or deep
groundwater inflow compared with downstream sites. Our longer-term objective is to collate water
temperature data from a much larger number of sites and then use a GIS-based modelling tool to predict
from catchment properties, potential reaches for water-temperature amelioration by riparian tree cover.
Key words water; rivers; temperature; climate change; adaptation
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 135-142
Long-term forecasting of flow and water temperature
for cooling systems: case study of the Rhone River, France
MARIE BOURQUI1, FREDERIC HENDRICKX1 & NICOLAS LE MOINE1,2
1 Electricity de France EDF R&D – LNHE, 6, quai Watier 78401 Chatou, France
[email protected]
2 Now at: UMR 7619 Sisyphe, UPMC Université Paris 6, Paris, France
Abstract Electricity production from nuclear power plants needs water intake for cooling systems. Due
to climate change, an electricity producer such as EDF (Electricity de France), could be impacted by an
increase of the air temperature, which may cause a problem to fulfilling legal environmental limits
and/or safety limits. This will have direct consequences on electricity production capacity. Thus EDF is
interested in the future evolution of water temperature and discharge for the rivers where its industrial
sites are located. This paper presents a case study of the cross-boarder Rhone basin at Viviers (73 000
km2, France). Long-term forecasting of the thermal and hydrological regimes of this river was
established, starting from the modelled system and forced by observed climatic variables. The
hydrological model coupled with a thermal model was calibrated and controlled with the historical
data. The data set includes meteorological variables, discharge, and water temperature data from the
last 35 years. The watershed is influenced by Lake Leman in the upstream part of the basin, and by the
presence of several tributaries characterized by various hydrological regimes (from glacier-fed to rainfed). Rhone River runoff is also influenced by glaciers in the headwaters and by reservoir management
for hydroelectricity. All these characteristics have to be taken into account when extrapolating this
model to other climate conditions. The selected future scenarios were run using results of six coupled
regional models (RCM-GCM) by the European project ENSEMBLE.
Key words water temperature; rivers; air temperature; runoff; climate change; cooling sources; Rhone River,
France
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 145-150
Modelling climate change effects on nutrient discharges from
the Baltic Sea catchment: processes and results
CHANTAL DONNELLY, JOHAN STRÖMQVIST & BERIT ARHEIMER
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,Folkborgsvägen 1, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden
[email protected]
xix
Abstract The effects of climate changes on nutrient discharges within the Baltic Sea catchment were
modelled, indicating increases in concentrations of phosphorus, but decreases in nitrogen for the
southern Baltic Sea catchment. The process-based hydrological and nutrient flux model, HYPE, was set
up for the entire Baltic Sea catchment area. The model was then used to examine how water and nutrient
fluxes may change during four different climate scenarios. Changes to discharge varied regionally, with
increases seen in the northeastern Baltic Sea catchment and decreases in the south and southwest.
Changes to total nutrient loads did not necessarily follow the changes in discharge, indicating significant
changes in nutrient concentrations. This indicates the importance of a process-based hydrological and
nutrient model for analyses: it is the net result of several different nutrient sink and source processes that
determine the predicted status of nutrients as a result of climate change.
Key words water quality modelling; nutrient modelling; climate change; discharge modelling; Baltic Sea
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 151-158
Impacts of climate change on regulating nitrogen retention in
the River Weiße Elster in Germany
M. RODE1, H. BOYACIOGLU1,2, T. VETTER3 & V. KRYSANOVA3
1 UFZ Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research, Department of Aquatic Ecosystem Analysis, Brueckstrasse 3,
D-39114 Magdeburg, Germany
[email protected]
2 Dokuz Eylul University, Department of Environmental Engineering, Tinaztepe Campus Buca 35160 Izmır, Turkey
3 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Global Change and Natural Systems Department, PO Box 601203,
Telegrafenberg, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
Abstract In this study, climate scenarios (dry, medium and wet) have been used to characterize
changing climatic and flow conditions for the period 2050–2054 in the 4th order River Weiße Elster in
Germany. Present and future periods of nitrogen turnover were simulated with the WASP5 river water
quality model. Results revealed that, for a dry climate scenario, the mean denitrification rate was 71%
higher during summer (low flow period between 2050 and 2054) and 51% higher during winter (high
flow period) compared to the reference period. In the 42-km study reach, N-retention through
denitrification amounted to 5.1% of the upper boundary N load during summer low flow conditions
during the reference period. For the future dry climate scenario, this value increased by up to 10.2%. In
our case study, the investigated climate scenarios showed that future discharge changes may have a
larger impact on denitrification rates than future temperature changes.
Key words denitrification; climate change; river water quality modelling; River Weiße Elster, Germany
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 159- 164
Modelling of the climate change effects on nitrogen loads in
the Jizera catchment, Czech Republic
MARTA MARTÍNKOVÁ1, VALENTINA KRYSANOVA2, CORNELIA
HESSE2, MARTIN HANEL1 & ŠÁRKA BLAŽKOVÁ1
1 T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, Podbabská 30/2582, Praha 6, Czech Republic
[email protected]
2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
xx
Abstract The consequences of climate change for water quality are significant and are expected to
heavily influence water resources management. Here, water quality modelling was done in order to
evaluate the impact of climate change on nitrogen loads in the Jizera catchment. The Jizera catchment is
of high importance for drinking water supply. We have used the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil
and Water Integrated Model), which simulates water and nutrient fluxes in soil and vegetation, as well
as transport of water and nutrients to and within the river network. The influence of climate change on
nitrogen loads in the Jizera catchment was assessed here by using bias-corrected outputs of two dynamic
regional climate models (RCMs). The two RCMs show a common trend of higher future total and
summer discharge. However, the SWIM modelling results differ in terms of nitrate nitrogen load and its
seasonality, between the two RCMs and among the modelled future periods. The uncertainty in the
modelling results is caused mainly by differences in the regional climate models.
Key words water quality; climate change; nitrogen; regional climate
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 165-171
Assessment of water quality under changing climate
conditions in the Haihe River Basin, China
NIU CUNWEN, JIA YANGWEN, WANG HAO, ZHOU ZUHAO, QIU YAQIN,
BAO SHUJUN & LV CAIXIA
Department of Water Resources, Institute of Water Resources & Hydropower Research, No. 1 Yu-Yuan-Tan South
Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100038, China
[email protected]; [email protected]
Abstract For the purpose of underpinning the technical requirements of saving energy and reducing
emissions, this study attempts to construct a model, which aims to demonstrate the process of “pollutant
production–discharge into rivers–transformation–discharge into seas” by choosing regular pollution
indices as a research objective on a macroscale for a long period. This study focuses on the construction,
calibration and verification of an integrated simulation model on water quantity and water quality for the
Haihe River Basin, China, which has serious water shortages and pollution. The basin is divided into
smaller units, including 3067 sub-basins and 11 752 contours, and in each unit pollutant loads are
evaluated. The model has sufficiently high precision that it can be used to support water resources
protection and water environment management. The study reported herein produced initial outcomes of
the water pollution equilibrium status and made a preliminary exploration into integrated management
of water resources and pollutant balance. The results indicated that the water quality has been degrading
since the 1980s and is projected to continue to degrade in the context of climate change. The underlying
reason behind the current situation is the continued pollutant discharge into the river, particularly during
dry seasons when the low flow is insufficient to dilute the pollution. Concurrent with the river water
quality degradation, groundwater and soil pollution further deteriorated. Therefore, it is advisable for the
relevant departments (soil or land management and groundwater) to focus on controlling pollutant
sources and remediation of contaminated areas.
Key words water quantity; water quality; assessment; China
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 172-177
Effect of climate change on nutrient discharge in a coastal
area, western Japan
YUTA SHIMIZU1, SHIN-ICHI ONODERA1 & MITSUYO SAITO2
xxi
1 Graduate school of Integrated Arts and Sciences, Hiroshima University, 1-7-1, Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima,
Hiroshima 739-8521, Japan
[email protected]
2 Center for Marine Environmental studies (CMES), Ehime University, 2-5, Bunkyo-cho, Matsuyama, Ehime 790-8577,
Japan
Abstract This study investigates the effect of climate change on nitrogen and phosphorus discharges
from a watershed in western Japan. Numerical simulations for a 30-year period (1978–2007)
demonstrate a decrease in the annual precipitation as well as in the loads of nitrogen and phosphorus,
over the study period. Nutrient fluxes were estimated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool
(SWAT) model. The estimated phosphorus flux is more highly correlated with precipitation than the
nitrogen flux. The results suggest a high correlation between phosphorus and discharge, but during the
high precipitation years, phosphorus loads have decreased. A sensitivity analysis of parameters for
phosphorus discharge showed that the most sensitive parameter is the support practice factor.
Consequently, phosphorus flux could decrease from the Asahi River watershed in the future, because
precipitation and flood events have decreased and so has the driving force for soil erosion, which is the
primary source of the nutrients.
Key words nutrient load; precipitation; SWAT model; western Japan
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (Proceedings of symposium H04
held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 348, 2011). 178-184
Predicting water quality responses to a changing climate:
building an integrated modelling framework
F. DYER1, S. EL SAWAH2, E. HARRISON1, S. BROAD1, B. CROKE2, R.
NORRIS1 & A. JAKEMAN2
1 Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia
[email protected]
2 Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre, National Center for Groundwater Research and
Training, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
Abstract The future management of freshwater resources for human and environmental needs requires
an integrated set of tools for predicting the relationship between climate change, water quality and
ecological responses. In this paper, we present the early phases of a project for building a Bayesian
network (BN) based framework to link ecological and water quality responses to features of the flow
regime in the Molonglo and Yass rivers in southeastern Australia. At this stage, the objective is to
conceptualize the modelling components and define causal links. Expert elicitation was used to identify
important drivers and interactions which influence water quality attributes and related ecological
responses.
Key words Bayesian network models; water quality; prediction; climate change; integrated modelling