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1 Definition: A normal distribution is a distribution described by a normal density curve. A normal distribution is completely specified by two numbers, µ and σ. The 68-95-99.7 Rule: In the normal distribution N (µ, σ): (I) Approximately 68% of the observations fall within σ of the mean µ. (II) Approximately 95% of the observations fall within 2σ of the mean µ. (III) Approximately 99.7% of the observations fall within 3σ of the mean µ. 2 (A) Corresponding to the case (I) for N (0, 1), we have the following graph 0.4 density curve 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 The area is equal to 68% (B) Corresponding to the case (II) for N (0, 1), we have the following graph 0.4 density curve 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 The area is equal to 95% 3 3 (C) Corresponding to the case (III) for N (0, 1), we have the following graph 0.4 density curve 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 The area is equal to 99.7% Example: The length of human pregnancies from conception to birth varies according to a distribution that is approximately normal with mean 266 days and standard deviation 16 days. Use the 68 − 95 − 99.7 rule to answer the following questions. (a) Between what values do the lengths of almost all (99.7%) pregnancies fall? (b) How short are the shortest 2.5% of all pregnancies? Solution: (a) According to (III), within 3 standard deviations of the mean,i.e. [218 = (266 − 3 × 16), 314 = (266 + 3 × 16)] contains 99.7% of the observations. (b) From the graph 4 0.025 density curve 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 The area is equal to 95% and (II), [234 = (266 − 2 × 16), 298 = (266 + 2 × 16)] contains 95% of the observations. Since normal distribution is symmetric, there are 2.5% of observations are less than 234 days. Definition: A standard normal distribution is the N (0, 1). If a (random) variable X has a normal distribution N (µ, σ), then Z= X −µ σ is a standardized variable which has distribution N (0, 1). Cumulative proportion or probability P(X ≤ x): The cumulative proportion for a given value x in the distribution is the proportion of observations in the distribution that lie at or below x. In other words, it 5 is the probability to observe a value of the variable X less than or equal to x and this is denoted by P(X ≤ x). The following figure show the cumulative proportion less than or equal to −1 for Z ∼ N (0, 1). 0.4 density curve 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 The area less than or equal to −1 Using the standard normal table: We can find P(Z ≤ x) by the standard normal table on page 684-685, Table A. Example: P(Z ≤ −1.85) = 0.0322 and P(Z ≤ 1.64) = 0.9495. Generally if X ∼ N (µ, σ), then the transformation X −µ Z= σ 6 define a new variable which has a standard normal distribution. Example: If X ∼ N (0.5, 0.5), find P(X ≤ 1). Solution: Since Z = X−0.5 0.5 ∼ N (0, 1), we have X − 0.5 1 − 0.5 ≤ ) = P(Z ≤ 1) = 0.8413. 0.5 0.5 Remark: If variable X has a distribution which is specified by a density curve, then for any constant a, P(X = a) = 0. Therfore, P(X ≤ 1) = P( P(X ≤ a) = P(X < a) + P(X = a) = P(X < a).