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Applications of Machine Learning and High Dimensional Visualization in Cancer Diagnosis and Detection John McCarthy*, Kenneth A. Marx, Alex Gee, Philip O’Neil, M.L. Ujwal, Patrick Hoffman, John Hotchkiss AnVil, Inc. 25 Corporate Drive Burlington, MA 01803 1 *corresponding author [email protected]; (781) 828-4230 Abstract Introduction to Data Analysis by Machine Learning Overview of Machine Learning and Visualization Machine learning is the application of statistical techniques to derive general knowledge from specific data sets by searching through possible hypotheses exemplified in the data. The goal is typically to build predictive or descriptive models that distinguish the useful attributes of 2 a dataset to allow the use of those attributes to draw conclusions from other similar datasets. .[Data mining - Witten, Frank] In cancer diagnosis and detection, machine learning helps identify significant factors in high dimensional data sets of genomic, proteomic, or clinical data that can be used to understand the disease state in patients. Machine learning techniques serve as tools for finding the needle in the haystack of possible hypotheses formulated by studying the correlation of protein or genomic expression with the presence or absence of disease. In the process of analyzing the efficacy and correctness of the generalization of concepts from a data set, high dimensional visualizations give the researcher time-saving tools for analyzing the significance, biases, and strength of a possible hypothesis. In dealing with a potentially discontinuous high dimensional concept space, the researcher’s intuition benefits greatly from a visual validation of statistical correctness of the result. The visualizations can also reveal sensitivity to variance, non-obvious correlations, and unusual higher order effects that are scientifically important, but would require time consuming mathematical analysis to discover without a mechanism to picture the application of the discovered hypothesis to the dataset. Cancer diagnosis and detection involves a group of techniques in machine learning called classification techniques. Classification can be done by supervised learning, where the classes of the obects are already known and are used to train the system to learn the attributes that most effectively disambiguate and describe the members of the classes. . For example, given a set of gene expression data for samples with known diseases, a supervised learning algorithm might learn to classify disease states based on patterns of gene expression. In unsupervised learning, there either are no predetermined classes, or the class assignments are ignored and data objects are grouped together by cluster analysis based on some relationship between the objects. In both supervised and unsupervised classification (also know simply as clustering) an explicit or 3 implicit model is created from the datato help to predict future data instances or understand the physical process behind the data. Creating these models can be a very compute intensive task, such as training a neural network, and these models are prone to the flaw of generalizing knowledge from a particular data set to “overfit” the model to the data, making it less generally valid when applied to other data sets of the same type Feature selection and reduction techniques help with both compute time and overfitting problems, by reducing the data attributes used in creating a data model to those that are most important in characterizing the hypothesis. This process can reduce analysis time and create simpler and (sometimes) more accurate models. In the three cancer examples presented, both supervised and unsupervised classification and feature reduction are used and will be described. In addition we will discuss the use of high dimensional visualization in conjunction with these analytical techniques. One particular visualization, RadViz™, incorporates machine learning techniques in an intuitive, interactive display. Two other high dimensional other visualizations, Parallel Coordinates and PatchGrid (similar to HeatMaps) are also used to analyze and display results. Below we summarize the classification, feature reduction, validation, and visualization techniques we use in the examples, with a particular emphasis on explaining the techniques of RadViz and Principle Uncorrelated Record Selection (PURS), that have been developed by the authors. Machine Learning Techniques: Classification techniques vary from the statistically simple, testing dimensions for statistical significance in their contribution to the classification for example, to sophisticated probabilistic modeling. The supervised learning techniques used in the examples include Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines, Instance-based learning or K-nearest neighbor, Logistic regression, and Neural Networks. Much of the work in the following examples is supervised learning, but it also includes some unsupervised hierarchical clustering using Pearson correlations. There are many texts giving detailed descriptions of the implementations and use of these techniques, the authors particularly like [Data Mining, Witten and Frank]. 4 Feature Reduction Techniques: There are a number of statistical approaches to feature reduction that are quite useful. These include the application of pairwise T-statistics and using F-statistics from the class labels to select the the most important dimensions. A more sophisticated approach is one we call Principle Uncorelated Record Selection, or PURS. PURS involves selecting some initial seed attributes (or dimensions), based on a high t or f statistic, for example. We then repeatedly delete attributes that correlate highly to seed attributes. If an attribute does not correlate highly to one of the seed attribute set, it is added to the seed set. We repeat this process reducing the correlation threshold until the seed dimensions are reduced to an optimal or desired number. We also use random feature selection to train and test classifiers. This technique is used to validate the predictive power of a more carefully selected feature set culled from a sparse data set. Validation Techniques: Perhaps the most significant challenge in the application of machine learning to biological data is the problem of validation, or the task of determining the expected error rate from a classifier when applied to a new dataset. The data used to create a model cannot be used to predict the performance of that model on other datasets. The attributes, or dimensions, selected as important for classification must be tested against a set of data that was not used in any way in the creation of the classifier. The easy solution to this is to divide the data into a training set and a test set, or 5 even a training set, a tuning set to tune the classifer, and a test set to determine the error rate. The problem of course, is that biological data is usually expensive to aquire, and sufficiently large sets to allow this subdivision and still have the statistical power to generalize knowledge from the training set are hard to find. So, as well as the training set/test set approach we use a common machine learning technique called 10-fold cross-validation. This approach divides the data into 10 groups, creates the model using 9 of the groups, and tests it on the remaining group. We then repeat this using each group as the test group once. The ten error estimates are then averaged to give an overall sense of the predictive power of classification technique on that data set. Another technique we use to help predict performance in limited data sets is an extension of the 10-fold validation idea called leave-one-out validation. In this technique one data point is left out of each iteration of model creation, and is used to test the model. This is repeated with every data point in the set being used once as the test data. This approach is nicely deterministic, as compared to 10-fold cross validation which requires the careful random stratification of the ten groups, but does not give as useful a characterization of the accuracy of the model for some distributions of classes within the datasets. High Dimensional Visualization Although there are a number of conventional visualizations that can help in the understanding of the correlation of a small number of dimensions to an attribute, high dimensional visualizations 6 have been difficult to understand and use because of the potential loss of information when projecting high-dimensional data down to two or three-dimensional representations. There are numerous visualizations and a good number of valuable taxonomies of visual techniques (See [16] for an overview of taxonomies). As a group we make use of many of the techniques in the analysis of biological data, especially : matrices of scatterplots [17]; Heat maps [17]; parallel coordinates [22]; RadViz™ [25]; and Principal component analysis [26].Of these, we find RadViz uniquely capable of dealing with ultra–high-dimensional (>10,000 dimensions) datasets, and very useful when used interactively in conjunction with specific machine learning and statistical techniques to explore critical attributes for classification. RadViz™ is a visualization and classification and clustering tool that uses a spring analogy for placement of data points and incorporates machine learning feature reduction techniques as selectable algorithms. 13-15 The “force” that any feature exerts on a sample point is determined by Hooke’s law: f kd . The spring constant, k, ranging from 0.0 to1.0 is the value of the feature(scaled) for that sample, and d is the distance between the sample point and the perimeter point on the RadViz™ circle assigned to that feature-see Figure A. The placement of a sample point, as described in Figure A is determined by the point where the total force determined vectorially from all features is 0. The RadViz display combines the n data dimensions into a single point for the purpose of clustering, but it also integrates analytic embedded algorithms in order to intelligently select and radially arrange the dimensional axes. This arrangement is performed through Autolayout, aset of algorithmic features based upon the dimensions’ significance statistics that optimizes clustering by optimizing the distance separating clusters of points. The default arrangement is to have all features equally spaced around the perimeter of the 7 circle, but the feature reduction and class discrimination algorithms arrange the features unevenly in order to increase the separation of different classes of sample points. The feature reduction technique used in all figures in the present work is based on the t statistic with Bonferroni correction for multiple tests. The circle is divided into n equal sectors or “pie slices,” one for each class. Features assigned to each class are spaced evenly within the sector for that class, counterclockwise in order of significance (as determined by the t statistic, comparing samples in the class with all other samples). As an example, for a 3 class problem, features are assigned to class 1 based on the sample’s t-statistic, comparing class 1 samples with class 2 and 3 samples combined. Class 2 features are assigned based on the t-statistic comparing class 2 values with class 1 and 3 combined values, and Class 3 features are assigned based on the t-statistic comparing class 3 values with class 1 and class 2 combined. Occasionally, when large portions of the perimeter of the circle have no features assigned to them, the data points would all cluster on one side of the circle, pulled by the unbalanced force of the features present in other sectors. In this case, a variation of the spring force calculation is used, where the features present are effectively divided into qualitatively different forces comprised of high and low k value classes. This is done via requiring k to range from –1.0 to 1.0. The net effect is to make some of the features pull (high or +k values) and others ‘push’ (low or –k values) the points to spread them absolutely into the display space, but maintaining the relative point separations. It should be stated that one can simply do feature reduction by choosing the top features by t-statistic significance and then apply those features to a standard classification algorithm. The t-statistic significance is a standard method for feature reduction in machine learning approaches, independently of RadViz. RadViz has this machine learning feature embedded in it and is responsible for the selections carried out here. The advantage of RadViz is that one immediately 8 sees a “visual” clustering of the results of the t-statistic selection. Generally, the amount of visual class separation correlates to the accuracy of any classifier built from the reduced features. The additional advantage to this visualization is that sub clusters, outliers and misclassified points can quickly be seen in the graphical layout. One of the standard techniques to visualize clusters or class labels is to perform a Principle Component Analysis and show the points in a 2d or 3d scatter plot using the first few Principle Components as axes. Often this display shows clear class separation, but the most important features contributing to the PCA are not easily seen. RadViz is a “visual” classifier that can help one understand important features and how many features are related. The RadViz Layout: An example of the RadViz layout is illustrated in Figure A. There are 16 variables or dimensions associated with the 1 point plotted. Sixteen imaginary springs are anchored to the points on the circumference and attached to one data point. The data point is plotted where the sum of the forces are zero according to Hooke’s law (F = Kx): where the force is proportional to the distance x to the anchor point. The value K for each spring is the value of the variable for the data point. In this example the spring constants (or dimensional values) are higher for the lighter springs and lower for the darker springs. Normally, many points are plotted without showing the spring lines. Generally, the dimensions (variables) are normalized to have values between 0 and 1 so that all dimensions have “equal” weights. This spring paradigm layout has some interesting features. 9 For example if all dimensions have the same normalized value the data point will lie exactly in the center of the circle. If the point is a unit vector then that point will lie exactly at the fixed point on the edge of the circle (where the spring for that dimension is fixed). Many points can map to the same position. This represents a non-linear transformation of the data which preserves certain symmetries and which produces an intuitive display. Some features of this visualization include: it is intuitive, higher dimension values “pull” the data points closer to the dimension on the circumference points with approximately equal dimension values will lie close to the center points with similar values whose dimensions are opposite each other on the circle will lie near the center points which have one or two dimension values greater than the others lie closer to those dimensions the relative locations of the of the dimension anchor points can drastically affect the layout (the idea behind the “Class discrimination layout” algorithm) an n-dimensional line gets mapped to a line (or a single point) in RadViz Convex sets in n-space map into convex sets in RadViz We have studied the following systems related to cancer detection: 1. GI50 compound 60 cancer cell lines 10 2. Microarray lung cancer data 3. proteomics MS dataset 1. Data Mining the Public Domain NCI-60 Cancer Cell Line Compound GI50 Data Set Introduction to the Cheminformatics Problem. Important objectives in the overall process of molecular design for drug discovery are: 1) the ability to represent and identify important structural features of any small molecule, and 2) to select useful molecular structures for further study, usually using linear QSAR models and based upon simple partitioning of the structures in n-dimensional space. To date, partitioning using non-linear QSAR models has not been widespread, but the complexity and high-dimensionality of the typical data set requires them. The machine learning and visualization techniques that we describe and utilize here represent an ideal set of methodologies with which to approach representing structural features of small molecules, followed by selecting molecules via constructing and applying non-linear QSAR models. QSAR models might typically use calculated chemical descriptors of compounds along with computed or experimentally determined compound physical properties and interaction parameters (G, Ka, kf, kr, LD50, GI50, etc) with other large molecules or whole cells. Theromodynamic and kinetic parameters are usually generated in silico (G) or via high throughput screening of compound libraries against appropriate receptors or important signaling pathway macromolecules (Ka, kf, kr), whereas the LD50 or GI50 values are typically generated using whole cells that are suitable for 11 the disease model being investigated. When the data has been generated, then the application of machine learning can take place. We provide a sample illustration of this process below. The National Cancer Institute’s Developmental Therapeutics Program maintains a compound data set (>700,000 compounds) that is currently being systematically tested for cytotoxicity (generating 50% growth inhibition, GI50, values) against a panel of 60 cancer cell lines representing 9 tissue types. Therefore, this dataset contains a wealth of valuable information concerning potential cancer drug pharmacophores. In a data mining study of the 8 largest public domain chemical structure databases, it was observed that the NCI compound data set contained by far the largest number of unique compounds of all the databases (32). The application of sophisticated machine learning techniques to this unique NCI compound dataset represents an important open problem that motivated the investigation we present in this report. Previously, this data set has been mined by supervised learning techniques such as cluster correlation, principle component analysis and various neural networks, as well as statistical techniques (33,34). These approaches have identified distinct subsets within of a variety of different classes of chemical compounds (35,36,37,38). More recently, gene expression analysis has been added to the data mining activity of the NCI compound data set (39) to predict chemosensitivity, using the GI50 test data for each compound, for a few hundred compound subset of the NCI data set (40). After we completed our initial data mining analysis using the GI50 values (41), gene expression data on the 60 cancer cell lines was combined with NCI compound GI50 data and also with a 27,000 chemical feature database computed for the NCI compounds. . {Using what method or software??} In this study, we use microarray based gene expression data to first establish a number of ‘functional’ classes of the 60 cancer cell lines via a hierarchical clustering technique. These 12 functional classes are then used to supervise a 3-Class learning problem, using a small but complete subset of 1400 of the NCI compounds’ GI50 values as the input to a clustering algorithm in the RadViz™ program (43). Specific Methods Used. For the ~ 4% missing values found in the 1400 compound data set, we tried and compared two approaches to missing value replacement: 1) record average replacement; 2) multiple imputation using Schafer’s NORM software (44). Since applying either missing value replacement method to our data had little impact on the final results of our analysis, we chose the record average replacement method for all subsequent analysis. Clustering of cell lines was done with R-Project software using the hierarchical clustering algorithm with “average” linkage method specified and a dissimilarity matrix computed as [1 – the Pearson correlations] of the gene expression data. AnVil Corporation’s RadViz™ software (??){ Need to update} was used for feature reduction and initial classification of the cell lines based on the compound GI50 data. The selected features were validated using several classifiers as implemented in the Weka (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis, University of Waikato, New Zealand) software application program . The classifiers used were IB1 (nearest neighbor), IB3 (3 nearest neighbor), logistic regression, Naïve Bayes Classifier, support vector machine, and neural network with back propagation. Both ChemOffice 6.0 (CambridgeSoft Corp.) and the NCI website were used to identify compound structures via their NSC numbers. Substructure searching to identify quinone compounds in the larger data set was carried out using ChemFinder (CambridgeSoft). 13 Results and Discussion Identifying functional cancer cell line classes using gene expression data. Based upon gene expression data, we identified cancer cell line classes that we could use in a subsequent supervised learning approach. In Figure 1.1, we present a hierarchical clustering dendrogram using the [1-Pearson] distances calculated from the T-Matrix{?? Not sure what this is. Are you referring to the t-test statistic in matrix form?} , comprised of 1376 gene expression values determined for the 60 NCI cancer cell lines (43). There are five well defined clusters observed In this figure. Clusters 2-5 respectively, represent pure renal, leukemia, ovarian and colonrectal cancer cell lines. Only in Cluster 1, the melanoma class instance, does the class contain two members of another clinical tumor type; the two breast cancer cell lines - MDA-MB-435 and MDA-N. The two breast cancer cell lines behave functionally as melanoma cells and seem to be related to melanoma cell lines via a shared neuroendocrine origin (43). The remaining cell lines in this dendrogram, those not found in any of the five functional classes, are defined as being in a sixth class; the non- melanoma, leukemia, renal, ovarian, colorectal class. In the supervised learning analysis that follow, we treat these six computational derived functional clusters as ground truth. 3-Class Cancer Cell Classifications and Validation of Selected Compounds. High class number classification problems are difficult to implement in cases where the data are not clearly separable into distinct classes. Thus, we could not successfully carry out a 6-class classification of cancer cell lines based upon the starting GI50 compound data. Alternatively, we implemented a 3-Class supervised learning classification using RadViz™ (25, 45-47). Starting with the small 1400 compounds’ GI50 data set that contained no missing values for all 60 cell 14 lines, we selected those compounds that were effective in carrying out a 3-way class discrimination at the p < .01 (Bonferroni corrected t statistic) significance level. A RadViz visual classifier for the melanoma, leukemia, and non-melanoma/non-leukemia classes is shown in Figure 2.1. A clear and accurate class separations of the 60 cancer cell lines can be seen. There were 14 compounds selected as being most effective against melanoma cells and 30 compounds selected as being most effective against leukemia cells. Similar classification results were obtained for the two separate 2-Class problems: melanoma vs. non-melanoma and leukemia vs. non-leukemia. For all other possible 2-Class problems, we found that few to no compounds could be selected at the significance level we had previously set. In order to validate our list of computationally selected compounds , we applied six additional analytical classification techniques, as previously described, , to the original GI50 data set using the same set of chemical predictors and a hold-one-out cross-validation strategy. Using these selected compounds resulted in a greater than 6-fold lowered level of error compared to using the equivalent numbers of randomly selected compounds, thus validating our selection methodology. Quinone Compound Subtypes Upon examining the chemical identity of the compounds selected as most effective against melanoma and leukemia, an interesting observation was made. , For the 14 compounds selected as most effective against melanoma, 11 were p-quinones and all have an internal ring quinone structure. Alternatively, there were 30 compounds selected as most effective against leukemia, of which 8 contain p-quinones. In contrast to the internal ring quinones in the 15 melanoma class however, 6 out of the 8 leukemia p-quinones were external ring quinones. In order to ascertain the uniqueness of the two quinone subsets we first determined the extent of occurrence of p-quinones of all types in our starting data set, via substructure searching using the ChemFinder 6.0 software. The internal and external quinone subtypes represent a significant fraction, 25 % (10/41) of all the internal quinones and 40 % (6/15) of all the external quinones in the entire data set (41). Conclusion. With this cheminformatics example we have demonstrated that the machine learning approach described above utilizing RadViz™ has produced two novel discoveries . First, a small group of chemical compounds, enriched in quinones, were found to effectively discriminate among melanoma, leukemia, and non-melanoma/non-luekemia cell lines on the basis of experimentally measured GI50 values. Secondly, two quinone subtypes were identified that possess clearly different and specific toxicity to the leukemia and melanoma cancer cell types. We believe that this example illustrates the potential of sophisticated machine learning approaches to uncovering new and valuable relationships in complex high dimensional chemical compound data sets. 2. Distinguishing lung tumor types using microarray gene expression data Introduction to the high-throughput gene expression problem Completion of the Human Genome Project has made possible the study of the gene expression levels of over 30,000 genes [14, 15]??{Do these pertain to original references. 14 16 looks reasonable but I question 15 based on the journals. Please confirm. YES John, these were reference numbers Ken provided from the original document he moved into this section and I incorporated the text. The other two references below will need to be provided by Ken or someone with their sources.} Major technological advances have made possible the use of DNA microarrays to speed up this analysis. Even though the first microarray experiment was only published in 1995{Ref ?, Ken?}, by October 2002 a PubMed query of microarray literature yielded more than 2300 hits{Ref ?, Ken?}, indicating explosive growth in the use of this powerful technique. DNA microarrays take advantage of the convergence of a number of technologies and developments including: robotics and miniaturization of features to the micron scale (currently 20-200 um surface feature sizes for spotting/printing and immobilizing sequences for hybridization experiments), DNA amplification by PCR, automated and efficient oligonucleotide synthesis and labeling chemistries, and sophisticated bioinformatics approaches. An important application of microarray technology is the identification and differentiation of tissue types using differential gene expressions, either between normal and cancerous cells or among tumor subclasses. The specific aim of the project described below was to explore the potential for using machine learning and high dimensional visualization in building a classifier which could differentiate normal lung tissue from the various subclasses of non-small cell lung cancer using microarray based differential expression patterns. We have previously reported on using such techniques to successfully construct classifiers which can solve the more general two-class problem of differentiating non-small cell lung cancer from normal tissue with accuracies greater than 95%. However, the analysis of the three-class problem of distinguishing normal lung tissue from the two subclasses of non-small cell lung carcinoma (adenocarcinomas and squamous cell carcinoma) was not directly addressed. Our ultimate aim 17 was the creation of gene sets with small number of genes that might serve as the basis for developing a clinically useful diagnostic tool. In collaboration with the NCI, we examined two data sets of patients with and without various lung cancers. The first data set was provided directly by the NCI and included 75 patient samples [1]. This set contained 17 normal samples, 30 adenocarcinomas (6 doubles), and 28 squamous cell carcinomas (2 doubles). Doubles represent replicate samples prepared at different times, using different equipment, but derived from the same tissue sample.. A second patient set of 157 samples was obtained from a publically available data repository [2]. This set included 17 normal samples, 139 adenocarcinomas (127 of these with supporting information) and 21 squamous cell carcinomas. Both data sets included gene expression data from tissue samples using Affymetrix’s Human Genome U95 Set [3]; only the first of five oligonucleotide based GeneChip® arrays (Chip A) was used in this experiment. Chip A of the HG U95 array set contains roughly 12,000 full-length genes and a number of controls. Because we were dealing with two data sets both from different sources and microarray measurements taken at multiple times we needed to consider a normalization procedure. For this particular analysis we kept with a simple mean of 200 for each sample. This resulted in a set of 9918 expressed genes of which approximately 2000 were found to be statistically significant (p<0.05) in differentiating normal lung tissue form non-small cell lung cancer. This differentially expressed set of genes was then used as the starting point for further analysis as described below. Specific Methods Used 18 Because the combinatorial scale of trying all possible gene sets requires a significant amount of time and computational power, we undertook an approach using sample genes sets defined by three different gene selection methods {What happened to PURS? As PURS did not provide any addition information to this analysis and did not perform better than radviz I removed it for simplity. May be a more thorough analysis with the complete set of PURS results might have provided something.}.?} First we defined and analyzed the results from ten independent random gene sets drawn from the set of approximately 2000 differentially expressed genes as previously described. These random selections provided a lower predictive bound for each gene set size. Second, we selected only genes that demonstrated high statistical significance by a standard F-test. Finally, we applied the proprietary RadViz™ technique developed at AnVil, Inc. (Burlington, MA) to identify sets of genes that best distinguished differences among the subclasses of samples under analysis [4] {Need a reference here. !!! John, this is a patent pending idea that has not been published yet. Although radviz as a visualization technique has be published, the algorithm that selected variables to distinguishes classes is material found in the company’s second patent (pending).}. Applying these three approaches to the available expression data we were able to generate gene sets that ranged in size from 1 to 100 genes. The construction of gene sets was accomplished using a collection of custom scripts written in Python. To evaluate the resulting sets of genes we applied a collection of predictive algorithms to each gene set using a ten-fold cross-validation testing methodology, since an initial comparison of both ten-fold and hold-one-out cross-validation showed that they produced essentially the same predictive accuracy. The predictive algorithms used in this analysis included but were not limited to variations on neural networks, support vector machines, Naïve Bayes, and K-nearest 19 neighbors all implemented using the publically available Weka application program [5]. Throughout our process of evaluating the various gene sets we kept the two data sets separate in order to perform two distinct testing scenarios. First we used the NCI data set for crossvalidation as described above; second, we used the Meyerson data set as an independent validation set. As a final validation of the biological significance of the genes in our our final 3-way classifier, we mined the scientific literature for references that associated the selected genes with specific key words found in association with lung cancer. {ML needs to provide the specific tools used and brief description of methods}[Mesh – Informax, Go-onotlogy] Results and Discussion Distinguishing normal and two tumor types Our analysis of the general two-class problem for distinguishing between normal lung tissue and non-small cell lung cancer samples has been reported elsewhere [6]. Unlike the twoclass problem however, the three-class problem proved more challenging. This problem involved distinguishing normal lung tissue from two subclasses of non-small cell lung cancer; adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. Our best gene sets performed on average around 88% for the NCI data set and 96% for the Meyerson data set, both resulting in between 8 to 10 misclassifications. {Can we say anything about 2-class FP vs FN rates of this 3-class model as compared to the previous 2-class model? Are they similar? NO, the amount of work needed to make this comparison is beyond my allotted time for this paper.}?} As shown in Figure 2.1, sets constructed from genes that are highly significant for the three-class problem using the F-statistic performed better overall than gene sets constructed from randomly selected genes. Also shown in 20 this figure is the fact that the RadViz™ selection method generally outperforms randomly selected genes and genes selected on the basis of high statistical significance using the F-test.. The RadViz™ display for the three-class problem as shown in Figure 2.2, clearly demonstrates near perfect discrimination between normal lung tissue and the two non-small cell lung cancer subclasses using as few as 15 genes.. Identification of problematic samples Besides examining the classification results for each gene set independently we looked at the consistency of classification of samples across gene sets using different machine learning algorithms as previously described. Suprisingly we identified a few samples in both data sets that were consistently misclassified. Figure 2.3 {Add patchgrid figure back in and generate separate tiff image file} shows an example visualization of the results for of the various classification algorithms (displayed horizontally) for each sample (displayed vertically) within the NCI data set. The two continuous vertical lines, which are readily visible, represent two samples that have been consistently misclassified by all the classification algorithms. Although it appears likely that these samples were improperly labeled, we had no supporting information for these patients and thus could not clinically validate these findings. In contrast , upon analysis of the Meyerson data set we were able to identify six misclassified patients. After reviewing these patients’ supporting information we found that two of these samples consisted of mixed tissue types and the classification algorithms caught this clinical anomoly. Validation using biological relevance {ML needs to write this section} 21 Our validation of the various gene sets we constructed and tested included the use of domain knowledge in an attempt to support the biological relevance of the selected gene set on the basis of literature references that associated the selected genes with key words found to be associated with lung cancer. (ML needs to provide supporting data for the 15 gene model and a discussion of the biological relevance of the genes selected. A table identifying the gene #, GenBank ID, and whether or not there is literature support for its role in lung cancer might also prove interesting). Conclusion This microarray high-throughput gene expression example demonstrates the usefulness of the machine learning and high dimensional visualization approach to the identification of genes that may play a significant role in the pathogenesis of non-small cell lung cancer. We have shown that the RadViz™ technique is extremely useful in identifying genes with significant differential gene expression which can be used as the basis for a clinically useful and accurate diagnostic model incorporating measurements from as few as 15 genes. Finally, we have provided the basis for a comprehensive pipeline based microarray analysis system incorporating the selection, evaluation, and relevance of genes for multi-class problems in cancer detection. References 22 1. Jin Jen, M.D., Ph.D., Laboratory of Population Genetics, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute. 2. Matthew Meyerson Lab, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, http://research.dfci.harvard.edu/meyersonlab/lungca/data.html. 3. Affymetrix, www.affymetrix.com. 4. Reference to RadViz and PURS?? Methodology 5. Weka (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis), The University of Waikato, http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~ml. 6. Dracheva, T., Shih, J., Jen, J., Gee, A., McCarthy, J., and Metrogenix; “Distinguishing lung tumors based on small number of genes using flow-through-chips” (In preparation) 3. Building a Diagnostic Classifier for Ovarian Cancer Using Proteomic Data Introduction to the proteomics problem ML: {One or two paragraph introduction to biological applications of mass spec and SELDI-TOF. Focus on the value of using machine learning and high dimensional visualization to differentiate the unique signatures of diseased vs normal protein distibutions in relatively unfractioned serum rather than on the more conventional use of mass spec fingerprinting in identifying unkown proteins after some form of separation. 1 or 2 general references would also be useful} The specific goal of this project was to classify patients with ovarian cancer on the basis of their SELDI-TOF mass spectroscopy signature derived from patient whole sera after 23 processing on the Ciphergen (Freemont, CA) WCX2 protein array. The methods for data collection and the general approach are described in Petricoin, et al which documents the first attempt at applying machine learning techniques to the analysis of clinical proteomic data. [1 ] The data set used here is not the same as in the original paper, but a similar one labeled 8-07-02, provided by the authors at http://clinicalproteomics.steem.com/download-ovar.php. The authors indicate that this data set is less variable than the original data as a result of using an improved protein chip coupled with totally automated processing by a robotic instrument. The data consist of over 15,000 mass charge ratio (M/Z) intensity measures, below the 20,000 M/Z range, on 253 patient samples. 162 of these samples were from patients with ovarian cancer and 91 were from controls. The major objective was to select a set of M/Z values which best distinguishes cancer cases from controls. Since the number of features is much larger than the number of samples, it is important to do this in a principled manner to avoid classifying on the basis of noise. Two aspects of this data set pose interesting technical challenges in its analysis. The first is the low S/N level associated with many of the features as shown in Figure 3.1, and the second is the high degree of correlation between different features. There are at least two sources of correlation. One, illustrated in Figure 3.2 for M/Z ratios near 417, is the high correlation between neighboring features in the vicinity of a peak. Such correlation may be due to the inherent resolution limitations of this instrument in resolving two peaks when separated by less than 600 M/Z units. The other, illustrated in Figure 3.3, is correlation between data at peaks where one M/Z ratio is almost exactly half the other M/Z ratio. The graph at the top of Figure 3.3 shows the spectrum in the M/Z range from 5300 to 10600, while the bottom graph shows the range from 2650 to 5300, exactly half the range of the top graph. All of the peaks of the top 24 graph are repeated in the lower graph, consistent with molecules with the same mass and twice the charge suggesting production of doubly ionized forms of the original protein fragments. These figures illustrate the power of visualization for data exploration. Clearly there is a high degree of noise and redundancy in the data. Such data attributes can be problematic for feature reduction and consequently reduce the accuracy of the predictive model under development. Specific methods Used. Initially each sample was randomly assigned (with 50% probability) to either a “train” group or a “test” group. This resulted in a training group of 88 ovarian cancer samples and 49 controls, and a test group of 74 ovarian cancer samples and 42 controls. In order to avoid any influence of test group data on the classification results, all feature reduction and modeling was done on the basis of training group data only. The first steps in feature reduction were to eliminate all M/Z ratios less than 350, and to eliminate those for which the maximum intensity value (in the train group) was less than 17.5. This was done in order to minimize the possibility of choosing a feature based on noise alone, and resulted in a reduction from over 15,000 to less than 4,000 features. The next step was to perform a t test on the remaining features to determine which features show a significant difference between cancer patients and controls. We kept features with significance of p < .001 after Bonferroni correction for multiple tests. This left over 400 features, many of which were redundant in the sense discussed above. Simply choosing the most significant 5 or 10 features would incorporate this redundancy into the classifier and could lead to poor performance. Consequently we used the PURS technique with a correlation parameter of .90 and initialized with two features, the most 25 significant feature for each of the two classes. The result was a set of twelve features. We trained two neural network models using SPSS Clementine. One used all twelve features, the other used the top six features. Results and Discussion. Both neural network models classified cancer patients and controls perfectly in both the training and test groups. On the website with the data http://clinicalproteomics.steem.com/download-ovar.php, Petricoin et al present a set of seven M/Z values which also results in perfect classification. These were chosen by means of a genetic algorithm. Our past experience with genetic algorithms and microarray data has shown us that genetic algorithms are susceptible to classification by noise. Microarray data are similar to the proteomics data in that the number of features (genes) is far greater than the number of samples. With this level of imbalance it is possible to find perfect classifiers in randomly generated data. Having an independent test set helps to weed out the really noisy models. However, when you consider the number of ways of choosing seven features out of 15,000 (> 1025), you begin to see that the chance of finding a set of seven “good” features is small. At a minimum, features should show a statistically significant difference between the two classes. Of the seven features given on the website, two are not even marginally significant before correcting for multiple tests. These contribute mostly noise to the classifier. Two or three more features would fail our strict p < .001 standard after a Bonferroni correction. This is an arbitrary standard, but since it still leaves more than 400 “good” features there is no reason to relax it. Figure 3.4 shows parallel coordinates displays of the two feature sets. The display on the left is the data for the seven features given on the website. The display on the right is the data for 26 the six features we selected. Five of the seven features on the left in Figure 3.4 have very low intensities. We eliminated these in the first step of feature reduction because they fail to reach the 17.5 threshold. Conclusions. It is clear that there are significant differences in proteins in serum between ovarian cancer patients and controls, and that mass spectroscopy is potentially a useful diagnostic tool. Because of differences in machines and instrumentation, the applicability of our models to a new data set is an open question. However, by applying intelligent feature reduction to mass spectroscopy data using high dimensional visualization prior to classification, the development of clinically accurate and useful diagnostic models using proteomic data should be possible. 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(2002) A comparison of normalization methods for high density oligonucleotide array data based on variance and bias. Bioinformatics 19(2): 185-193. Schadt, E.C., Li, C., Eliss, B., and Wong, W.H. (2002) Feature extraction and normalization algorithms for high-density oligonucleotide gene expression array data. J. Cell. Biochem. 84(S37), 120-125. Figure Legends Figure A. One Point with 16 dimensions in RadViz. Spring lines (not usually shown) are colored by value (K in Hooke’s law) for that variable (light is higher, dark is lower). The point is plotted were the sum of the forces is zero. 36 Figure 1.1. Cancer cell line functional class definition using a hierarchical clustering (1-Pearson coefficient) dendrogram for 60 cancer cell lines based upon gene expression data. Five well defined clusters are shown highlighted. We treat the highlighted cell line clusters as the truth for the purpose of carrying out studies to identify which chemical compounds are highly significant in their classifying ability Figure 1.2. RadViz™ result for the 3-Class problem classification of melanoma, leukemia and non-melanoma, non-leukemia cancer cell types at the p < .01 criterion. Cell lines are symbol coded as described in the figure. A total of 14 compounds (bottom of layout) were most effective against melanoma and they are layed out on the melanoma sector (counterclockwise from most to least effective). For leukemia, 30 compounds were identified as most effective and are layed out in that sector. Some 8 compounds were found to be most effective against non-melanoma, non-leukemia cell lines and are layed out in that sector. Figure 1.1 Cluster Dendrogram 1.0 O_HCT-116 -620 -15 OV_SK-OV-3 OV_IGROV1 R-3 R-4 V_OVCAR-5 _NCI-H322M NCI-H23 CI-H522 LC_NCI-H460 549/ATCC LC_EKVX LE_SR RPMI-8226 E_K-562 LC_NCI-H226 _HOP-62 -10 RE_A498 1 R_BT-549 SF-268 539 37 F-295 0.6 ME_LOXIMVI PR_PC-3 PR_DU-145 RE_SN12C Height 0.8 Figure 1.2 38 Section 2 Figure Captions Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.1. Classification results for the NCI data set showing the size of the gene sets compared to their associated best percent correct. Notice how the RadViz algorithm selected genes (black) generally perform better than either the top F-statistic genes (gray) or the randomly selected genes (white). As the gene set sizes increased from one to about twenty genes there was a shard increase in classification accuracy. In addition, as more random genes are selected their associated performance increases. 39 Figure 2.2. A RadViz display showing an example of a selected set of 15 genes from the Myerson data set defined by a balanced layout for the three classes: normal (gray squares), adenocarcinoma (black circles) and squamous cell carcinoma (white triangles). Ideally, the patient samples displayed by their associated representative glyph should fall within their respective regions, however some samples clearly fall into other regions thus being visually misclassified. This particular gene set performs very will with about 6 misclassifications visually, and after applying our collection of classification algorithms this gene set performed with 8 misclassifications. {We should either identify the genes on the diagram or cross reference them in ML’s table as previously discussed.} Figure 2.3. Misclassification Patchgrid {Needs to be cnverted to B/W and reformatted as a TIFF file along with appropriate caption}. Figure 2.3 Table 1: Gene ID crossreference with indication of literature support {ML} 40 Figure 3.1. This segment of the spectrum around the M/Z ratio of 203 illustrates the high signal to noise ratio of some features. Figure 3.2. There is a peak at 417.732 but the intensities at nearby M/Z values are very similar. The correlation between this peak and its two nearest neighbors is about .97, and the correlation with the two next neighbors is about .91. Figure 3.3. The top graph shows the portion of the spectrum from M/Z of 5300 to 10600, while the bottom graph shows the portion from 2650 to 5300. Thus the range at the bottom is exactly half the range at the top. Notice that all peaks in the top graph are repeated in the bottom graph. Figure 3.4. On the left are the seven M/Z ratios selected by Petricoin et al. On the right are the six features selected by the present authors. 41 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.1. This segment of the spectrum around the M/Z ratio of 203 illustrates the high signal to noise ratio of some features. 42 Figure 3.2 Figure 3.2. There is a peak at 417.732 but the intensities at nearby M/Z values are very similar. The correlation between this peak and its two nearest neighbors is about .97, and the correlation with the two next neighbors is about .91. 43 Figure 3.3 Figure 3.3. The top graph shows the portion of the spectrum from M/Z of 5300 to 10600, while the bottom graph shows the portion from 2650 to 5300. Thus the range at the bottom is exactly half the range at the top. Notice that all peaks in the top graph are repeated in the bottom graph. 44 Figure 3.4 Figure 3.4. On the left are the seven M/Z ratios selected by Petricoin et al. On the right are the six features selected by the present authors. 45