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Africanmountainouscountriesandtheir mountains RepublicofKenya 7/22/2015 AfroMontsourcedocument SueTaylor Africanmountainouscountriesandtheirmountains RepublicofKenya Contents Socio-economicandpoliticalcontext.......................................................................................2 Structureoftheeconomy........................................................................................................2 Demographics..........................................................................................................................4 Urbanisationtrendsandpossibledrivers:................................................................................4 Geographicalandbiomeinformation......................................................................................6 Biodiversityinformation...........................................................................................................6 MountainsofKenya.................................................................................................................8 Profileof‘watertower’mountainsinKenya..........................................................................12 TheEasternArcMountains....................................................................................................10 MtKenya..................................................................................................................................8 MtElgon.................................................................................................................................10 EastAfricanRiftValleyandlakes............................................................................................13 EasternArcbiodiversityhotspotsandotherimportantareas...............................................11 ProtectedareasandmountainsinKenya...............................................................................14 RiftValleylakes.......................................................................................................................14 Naturalresourcedepletion,disasters,landdegradationandwaterissues............................15 Galanairrigationproject........................................................................................................15 Climatechangeprojections,vulnerablesectorsandimpacts................................................17 Sustainabledevelopmentchallenges.....................................................................................18 Summary................................................................................................................................19 References.............................................................................................................................20 1.0Socio-economicandpoliticalcontext KenyaisaneastAfricancountryborderingtheIndianOcean,locatedbetweenSomaliaandTanzania. KenyagaineditsindependencefromBritishcolonialruleon12December1963.Thecountryhasa multi-partypoliticalsystemwhosehallmarkisparliamentarydemocracy.TheParliamentofKenyais bicameralhouseconsistingoftheNationalAssemblyandtheSenate.ThecurrentPresidentofKenya is His Excellency Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta, CGH who was sworn in on 9th April, 2013 as the fourth PresidentoftheRepublicofKenya.1TheRepublicofKenyaisaunitaryState. TheKenyaVision2030hasbeendraftedasthelong-termdevelopmentblueprintforthecountry– aimstotransformKenyainto‘anewlyindustrialising,middle-incomecountryprovidingahighquality oflifetoallitscitizensinacleanandsecureenvironment’(KenyaNCCAP,2013). KenyaislocatedinEasternAfricaandstraddlestheequator,betweenlatitudes4oNand4oS,and longitudes34oEand41oE.ThecountryisborderedontheeastbySomaliaandtheIndianOcean,on thenorthbyEthiopiaandSudan,onthewestbyUgandaandonthesouthbyTanzania. 2.0Structureoftheeconomy Sinceindependence,thecountryhasreceivedconsiderableforeignaidalthoughtheindustrialsector stillremainsunderdeveloped.Thecountryhastoimportamajorityofitsconsumergoodsbecauseof apoorlydevelopedmanufacturingsector,yet Kenyaisconsideredtobetheeconomicandtransport hubofEastAfrica(EconomyWatch,2010;CIA,2015).Theservicesectoristhelargestcontributorto Kenya's GDP and accounts for approximately 62.3% of the annual GDP volume (2009 data). 1 http://www.kenyarep-jp.com/kenya/government_e.html Agriculturecontributesalmost21%toKenya’sGDP,withthissectorengagingmorethan75%ofthe working population, largely in a subsistence economy. Kenya’s major agricultural produce includes tea,coffee,wheat,sugarcane,fruits,vegetables,cutflowersanddairyproducts. An over-reliance on traditional methods of agriculture have impacted on agricultural productivity since1997(EconomyWatch,2010)andhasmeantthatfoodproductionhasfailedtokeeppacewith the ever-increasing human population. Despite the country having been food self-reliant at independence(1963),ithasbecomeanetfoodimporterandheavilyreliesonfoodimportsandaid. On average, production of the major cereal, maize, is less than 1 MT/ha on most smallholder farmers’ fields compared to up to 8 MT/ha on experimental stations or under good management . Thelowproductionhasbeenattributedtolowuseofexternalinputsaswellasdecliningsoilfertility resulting from increased nutrient mining and land degradation. Other factors include increasingly adverse weather(which might be a climate change manifestation) and poor macro-economic and sectoralpolicy(Waswa,2012). Thetourismsectorplaysanimportantroleinthenationaleconomycontributingabout27%ofthe foreignexchangeearningsand12%totheGDP.Kenya’stourismindustryislargelynature-basedand the wildlife populations are highly susceptible to climate variability and change (National Climate ChangeActionPlan,2010). TheKenyaneconomyissufferingfrommanycomplexchallengesandtoensurethatKenyadoesnot missfutureopportunities,andtakesfulladvantageofthe‘demographicdividend’(i.e.theeconomic benefitofreducedbirthrages)thatmaycometoit,betterinfrastructureandbettergovernanceare nowneeded(StateofKenyanEconomy,2011).Althoughimprovementsarebeingmade,overthelast fewdecadesKenyahasnotmakesufficientprogressinupgradingitsinfrastructureandimprovingits governance,andtheseconstraintsnowmadeitdifficultfornewindustriestotakeroot,especiallyin manufacturing.Opportunitiestocreatejobsonalargescalehavebeenlost(Fengler,2010). The World Bank’s latest economic analysis for Kenya forecasts a growth rate of 4.7% in 2014, and says the economyhasthepotentialtoachieveahighergrowthrate of 5% in the next two years. A higher growth rate (2014 onwards) will depend on macroeconomic stability and credible policies which have underpinned Kenya’s growth in the past. The June 2014 report of the International Monetary Fund states that current growth is powered by aggregate demand, fuelled by strong consumption and investment. The World Bank Group has launched a $4 billion programme under its new Country Partnership Strategy2014-2018(CPS)tosupportKenya’sdevelopment in the next four years. The strategy will enable Kenya to improveitspotentialforgrowth,createmorejobsforthe youth, build vital infrastructure and deepen devolution— whichhasdevolvedpowerandaccountabilitytoregionalcommunitiesandincreasedprospectsfor ending extreme poverty and improving shared prosperity among all Kenyans. Economic growth in Kenya remains broad-based, with all sectors making a contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(IMF,2014). The provinces and neighbours of Kenya are shown in the above map (sourced: http://geology.com/world/kenya-satellite-image.shtml). 3.0Demographics Kenya has one of the world's highest rates of population growth and the population has doubled overthelast25years,toabout40millionpeoplecurrently.Rapidpopulationgrowthisexpectedto continue even though Kenya has been a pioneer in instituting policies and programmes to address populationchallenges.AccordingtorecentUNprojections,Kenya’spopulationwillgrowbyaround one million per year over the next 40 years and is projected to reach about 85 million by 2050 (Fengler,2010).However,outcomesmaybedifferentasfamilyplanningisbecomingthenorm. Although Kenya has been implementing family planning, the population number continues to rise rapidly, although family size declines. This is because of two reasons. First, due to high fertility in previousdecades,therearemanymorefamiliesinKenyatoday.Soeventhoughfamiliesaresmaller, thetotalnumberofchildrencontinuestogrow.Second,Kenyansarelivinglonger.Lifeexpectancyis projected to increase from 54 years today to 68 years by 2050. As a result of these trends, the fastestgrowingpopulationgroupsinKenyaare15to64years—andtheseareexactlythepopulation groupsthatwork.Fromonly22millionworking-agepeopletoday,Kenyaby2050willhaveabout56 million working-age people (Fengler, 2010). The population growth has increased pressure on the country'snaturalresources,andalsoleavesyoungpeopleparticularlyvulnerabletopovertyasthere arefewjobstoabsorbthem. Despite some progress, the Kenyan population remains poor, and in the urban areas, a growing majorityofurbandwellers(71%)liveinslums(YinandKent,n.d.).About70%ofthepoorareinthe centralandwesternregions,livinginareaswhich,fortunately,dohavemediumtohighpotentialfor agriculture. Poverty and food insecurity are acute in the country's arid and semi-arid lands, which have also been severely affected by recurrent droughts. Rural women are especially vulnerable to povertybecausetheydonothaveequalaccesstosocialandeconomicassets.Subsistencefarmingis theprimarysourceoflivelihoodformostofthesewomen. 4.0Urbanisationtrendsandpossibledrivers: Kenya is urbanising rapidly, like most other African countries. Recent United Nations estimates suggestthatKenya’surbanpopulationwillexpandto38millionby2030andaccountfor62.7%of thenationalpopulation.Theseprojectionsindicatethattheannualurbanpopulationgrowthratewill average5.2%upto2010,4.2%overtheperiod2010-20and3.2%duringthesucceedingdecade (Ngayu, 2011). At this rate of urbanization the majority of the Kenyan population will be living in urban areas within the next 20 years. The scale of future urbanization will pose further socioeconomic, environmental and institutional challenges for Kenyan cities if the requisite policy and planningframeworksarenotputinplace(Ngayu,2011).ThebulkofNairobi’sgrowth,forexample, canbetracedtothein-migrationofpoormigrantsfromtheruralhinterland,manyofwhomendup inmarginalizedslumneighbourhoods.However,incitiessuchasEldoretandKisumu,slumformation isasaresultofannexationofruralsettlementsintomunicipalareasofjurisdictionthroughboundary extensions. Fengler(2010)remindsusthatKenya’sfuturepatternofurbanpopulationgrowthcanbeaforceof good. A large urbanizing and well-educated population can generate a strong middle class and vibrant private sector. Economic development can be easier to achieve and sustain in an urban setting,althoughtherearenoguaranteesofthis.Fengler(2010)alsoremindsusthatifKenyawants to harvest the opportunities of its demographic dividend (i.e. a larger consumer public, larger workforce),itneedstobringfertilitybelowthreechildrenperfamilyandalsotoscaleupitsprovision ofservicestocaterforarapidlygrowingandurbanizingcountry. People living in informal settlements form substantial proportions of populations in the five major urbancentresinKenya;inNairobiat60%,Mombasaat80%(coveringover90%ofthelandarea), Kisumu60%,Eldoret30%andNakurucloseto40%(Ngayu,2011).Whilethereisthoughttobea clearlinkbetweeneconomicoranation’swealthandtheformationofcities,inKenyacitiesarenot realizing their full potential in contributing to economic growth and poverty reduction. In fact the urban population has been increasing in a way that shows decreasing economic growth (Ngayu, 2011). Kenyademographicandurbanisationtrends Totalnationalpopulation(2012)* 45million Total urban population (% of total population) 24% (2011)*** Rate of urbanisation (annual rate of change 4.36% (2010-2015est.)*** Slumpopulationaspercentageofurban(2007), 53% definedbylackofaccesstosanitation*** Annualpopulationgrowthrates(2010-2015)* National:2.7% Urban:4.4% Rural2.1% Projectedpopulationby2050** 99million Agestructure*** 0-14years:42.1% 15-24years:18.7% Totalunder25years60.8% Medianage19.1years Access to improved water sources (percentage urban:82.3% ofpopulation)*** rural:55.1% total:61.7% Access to improved sanitation (percentage of urban:31.3% population)*** rural:29.1% total:29.6% Literacy (Age 15 and older who can read and totalpopulation:87.4% write)*** male:90.6% female:84.2%(2010est.) *http://www.indexmundi.com/kenya/population.html **http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/kenya-population/ ***http://www.indexmundi.com/kenya/demographics_profile.html ApproximatepopulationsizesofKenya’smaincities City Population Nairobi Metro 6, 547 000 Nairobi Mombasa Kisumu Nakuru Eldoret 3,375,000 1,200,000 409,928 307,990 289,380 4.0Geographicalandbiomeinformation Kenya's regions make up two large divisions: one part of the nation consisting of elevated lands formingthesouthwesternthirdofthecountry,andtheremainingtwo-thirdsofthenationforming anarcoflowplateausandplains.Thelandsurfacerisesgraduallywestwardfromanarrowcoastal plaininaseriesofplateaus,culminatinginahighlandareathatisbisectedbytheGreatRiftValley andincludesthecountry'shighestpoint,MountKenya(5200masl).Thenorthernandnortheastern regions of the country consist mainly of arid plains and are peopled by semi-nomadic pastoralists. Thealtitudesfoundintheinlandplateauxregionsrangebetween1000mand1500m,andseveral mountainrangesandpeaks,includingMountKenyawhich,becauseofitsaltitudehasapermanent snow-cap. The Kenyan highlands are temperate, the coastal zone hot and humid, and the arid areas are generallyhot.Kenyahasalandareaof580728km2withapproximately85%ofthislandclassifiedas aridandsemi-aridland(ASAL).TheASALareassupportalmost30%ofthetotalnationalpopulation and 70 % of the livestock production (National Climate Change Action Plan, 2010). The equatorial situationmeansthatthereisaverylimitedannualvariationintemperature.Infact,onlyaboutoneseventh of Kenya's land area, mainly the coastal and southern highland regions, receive a reliable yearlyrainfallandalthoughmuchofcountryhastwowetandtwodryseasons,totalrainfallvaries unpredictably. Only the coastal lowlands experience the constant high temperatures and humidity associatedwithequatoriallatitudes,althoughdaytimeseabreezeshaveacoolingeffect.Mombasa has an annual mean temperature of 26°C. The northern part of Kenya is also hot throughout the year, but with lower humidity. Lodwar in the north-west has an annual mean temperature of 29°C (UKMetOffice,n.d.). Nairobi, in the southern inland highlands at 1800m altitude, has an annual mean temperature of 18°C,withapeakof19°CinMarchandalowof15°CinJuly.Kisuma,neartheshoresofLakeVictoria inthewestat1350maltitude,hasanannualmeantemperatureof26°C. 4.1Biodiversityinformation Kenya had over 35 000 species of flora and fauna. This diversity is created by the variable ecosystemsrangingfrommarine,mountains,tropical,drylands,forestsandaridlands.Inadditionto thesearesome467inlandlakeandwetlandhabitatscoveringabout2.5%ofthetotalarea.Kenyan forestsareendowedwitharicharrayofplantandanimallife.Someofthespeciesendemictothe foresthabitatsarefoundnowhereelseintheworld.Sincespeciesrichnesstendstocorrelatewith theannualamountofrainfall,wetterforestsarericherinspecies.Forexample,KakamegaForesthas the richest plant diversity in Kenya. However, coastal forests have more values as centres of endemismwithmanyplantandanimalspeciesfoundnowhereelseintheworld(Netfund,2011) About10-12%ofKenya’slandareaisdesignatedasprotectedareasandtheKenyaWildlifeServices (KWS)managesabout8%ofthisarea.Around20%oftherestofthelandareaofKenyaisunder cultivated agriculture and also simultaneously supports most of the human population, but the remaining70%ofthelandareaismostlyrangeland.Inspiteoftheselanduses,insomecases,many wildspeciesmaythrivebetteroutsidedesignatedprotectedareas(Netfund,2011). Kenya has developed a National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan in accordance with the UN ConventiononBiologicalDiversity(UNCBD)(NBSAPKenya,2005). AcomprehensivereportpreparedforUSAID/Kenyaentitled“KenyaTropicalForestandBiodiversity Assessment”byBruceByerssummarizesthestatusofbiodiversityandforestsinKenya;discusses thevaluesandeconomicsofbiodiversity;identifiesrelevantlaws,policies,andinstitutions oftheGovernmentofKenyathataffectbiodiversityandforestmanagement;andreviewsthe activitiesofnon-governmentalinstitutionsofallkinds(NGOs,donors,andtheprivatesector)(Byers etal,2011). Inthisreport,asetofprioritiesandrecommendationsforconservationactionswerelisted. Analysisofthethreats,causes,andactionsnecessaryforconservingKenya’sbiodiversityand forestsledtotheidentificationoffourmajorecosystemsashighprioritiesforaction(Byers etal,2011:8). The montane forest ecosystem stands out as a high priority for conservation because: • • • • • Theseforestsaretheecosystemwiththegreatestpercentageoftotalarealostofany ecosysteminKenya,withonlyabout10%oftheiroriginalcoverageremaining; Thedemandforagriculturalland,andconflictsoverit,stillthreateneventheremaining smallfractionofthisecosystem. Montaneforestsprovideirreplaceableecosystemservicesatthenationallevel,in particularasthewatershedcatchmentsforalloftheriversofKenya,andhavehigher potentialforcarbonsequestrationthananyotherecosystem; Thisecosystemhasrelativelyhighlevelsofendemicspecies ThegreatestnumberofspeciesinKenyaisfoundinmontaneforestsandcoral reefs USAID/Kenyaiscurrentlyworkingtowardsmeetingsomeoftheneedsidentifiedinthis studythroughitsportfolioofenvironmentandNRMactivities.Someoftheactionsneeded thatUSAIDcontributestoinclude:Inmontaneforests,theProMaraprogramishelping regularizeandclarifylandtenure,supportingenforcementofthelandlaw,andtryingtostop irregularandextra-legallandallocation.Theprogramisalsoworkingtoimprove conservation,restoration,andmanagementofnativemontaneforestsandwatersheds (Byersetal,2011:9). 5.0MountainsofKenya 5.1MtKenya MountKenyaisthehighestmountain inKenya(5200metresabovesealevel) andthesecond-highestinAfricaafter MtKilimanjaro.MountKenyaisa stratovolcanothatinnowinactive.The highestpeaksofthemountainare Batian(5199masl),Nelion(5188 masl)andPointLenana(4985masl). MountKenyaislocatedincentral Kenya,about16.5kmsouthofthe equator,and150kmnorth-northeast ofthecapitalNairobi.Thereare severaluniquevegetationbandsfromthebasetothesummit.Theslopesarecoveredby differenttypesofforestandmanyalpineplantspeciesareendemictoMountKenya,suchas thegiantlobeliasandseneciosandalocalsubspeciesofrockhyrax(seevegetationmap).An areaof715km2aroundthecentreofthemountainwasdesignatedaNationalParkandin April1978theareawasdesignatedaUNESCOBiosphereReserve.Thenationalparkandthe forestreserve,combined,becameaUNESCOWorldHeritageSitein1997.Theglacierson MountKenyaareretreatingrapidly,althoughglacialretreatandultimatedisappearanceare likelytobelinkedtochangesinbothtemperaturetrendsaswellaschangesinprecipitation. TheMountKenyaecosystemprovideswaterdirectlyforover2millionpeople. IntermsofgeologicalformationofMtKenya,thecyclicgrowthanddestructionofthisLate CenozoicStratovolcanohavebeenreconstructedforitssoutheasternsegment.Atleast threemajordebrisavalanchedepositshavebeenreconstructedanddated.Theoldest depositsindicateanedificecollapsearound4.9Ma,followedbyalargereventaround 4.1Ma.Thelastandbestpreserveddebrisavalanchedeposit,withstillsomemorphological expressioncoveringthewhole1214km2SEsector,occurredaround2.83Ma.Thisverylarge debrisavalancheeventmusthavetruncatedthewholetopofMt.Kenya.Oftheoriginal typicalhummockyrelief,onlylocaltopographicaldepressionsarestillbestvisibleand preserved.ResearchshowsthatMt.Kenyaattainedimpressivealtitudesduringitsmain activityinthePliocene,beingoneofthehighestmountainsinthattimeandwasmost probablycoveredbyanicecap.Correctingfortheknownneteastwardtiltingposteruptive upliftofapproximately500moftheMt.Kenyasummit,ourreconstructionindicatesthatan atleast5.6to7kma.s.l.highactiveMt.KenyaexistedinthePliocenelandscapebetween 5.1and2.8Ma(Schoorletal,2014). Thisvolcanomusthavesignificantlycontributedtoregionalenvironmentalchange,by catchingrainonitseasternslopesandprojectingarainshadowtowardstheKenyaRiftvalley inthewest.Thelastmajoredificecollapseeventaround2.8Macoincideswithamajor changeinregionalvegetation.ThissuggeststhatthetruncatingofMt.Kenyamayhave causedsignificantchangesinthelocalclimatesurroundingMt.Kenyawithpossible implicationsforenvironmentalchangeinthecentralKenyaRiftvalley,thecradleofhominin evolution(Schoorletal,2014). GlacialandearlyHolocene-agesedimentsfromlakesonMt.Kenyahavedocumentedstrong responsesofmontanehydrology,ecosystems,andcarboncyclingtopastchangesin temperatureandatmosphericCO2concentrations.However,littleisknownaboutclimate andecosystemvariationsonMt.KenyaduringtheCommonEra(thepast~2000years), despitemountingevidenceforsignificantclimatechangesintheEastAfricanlowlands duringthepastmillenniumandrecentobservationsofalpineglacierretreatintheEast Africanhighlands.ResearchshowsthatMt.Kenya'sclimatewashighlyvariableduringthe past1800years.DroughtsatSacredLakearound~200C.E.,700C.E.,and1100C.E.alignwith similardroughtsincentralKenyaandUganda/Congo,indicatingthatfailuresofboththe IndianandAtlanticmonsoonscausedwidespreaddroughtthroughoutequatorialEastAfrica duringtheearlyCommonEra(Koneckyetal,2014). Incontrast,dryandwetperiodsatSacredLakeduringthepast500yearsshowmeridional andzonalcontrastswithothersitesinEastAfrica,suggestingstrongspatialheterogeneity, possiblyduetoindependentwaxingandwaningoftheAtlanticandIndianmonsoons. Pronounceddryingafter~1870C.E.suggeststhatthecurrentdryphaseobservedatSacred Lakemayhavebegunpriortothe20thcentury,aroundthetimewhentheretreatofMt. Kenya'sglacierswasfirstobservedbyEuropeanexplorers.Mt.Kenya'svegetationresponded stronglytotheserecentclimatechanges,highlightingtheparticularsensitivityoftropical montaneclimateandecosystemstoregionalandglobalclimatepatterns,andunderscoring thecriticalneedtounderstandpotentialimpactsoffutureclimatechangescenariosonthis highlysensitiveregion(Koneckyetal,2014). 5.2MtElgon MountElgonisanancienterodedstratovolcanowhichsitsastridetheUganda-Kenyaborder. AlthoughnotthetallestoftheisolatedvolcanoesofEastAfrica,itisamongthelargestin volume,risingupfromabaseover50miles(80km)indiameterontheplainsatabout1200 melevation.Elgonistoppedbyacalderaabout8kmindiameter,withseveralhighpoints over4000maslalongtherim. MtElgonisnotedforitsuniqueAfro-alpinetreesandplants,andforthemanycavesinits mid-elevationslopes,whereelephantsandotherlargeanimalscanoftenbefoundeating mineralsalts.Althoughnotpresentlyglaciated,duringtheIceAgesMountElgonsupported numerousglacierswhichextendeddownbelow4000masl.At4321masl,MtElgonisthe 17th-highestmountainofAfrica.MountElgonNationalParkislocatedontheborderof KenyaandUganda.MountElgonisanimportantwatercatchmentfortheNzoiaRiverwhich flowstoLakeVictoriaandfortheTurkwelRiverwhichflowsintoLakeTurkana. 5.3TheEasternArcMountains TheEasternArcisachainofancientmountains coveredbyrainforestsandgrasslandsin Tanzania,withasmallelement,theTaitaHillsin Kenya.Itisthoughtthattheforesthassurvived ontheEasternArcMountainsforover30 millionyearsandwereonceconnectedtothe forestsoftheCongoBasinandWestAfrica. Neighboringmountainsaremuchyounger,for exampleMtKilimanjaroisestimatedtobe about1-2millionyearsold(EasternArc mountains,2015).TheEasternArcMountains stretchforsome900kmfromtheMakambako Gap,southwestoftheUdzungwaMountainsin southernTanzaniatotheTaitaHillsinsouthEasternArcMountains http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/where/tanza coastalKenya.Theycompriseachainof12main nia.html mountainblocks:fromsouthtonorth, Mahenge,Udzungwa,Rubeho,Uluguru,Ukaguru,NorthandSouthNguru,Nguu,East Usambara,WestUsambara,NorthPare,SouthPareandtheTaitaHillsinKenya.Thehighest point(KimhanduPeakintheUlugurus)ismorethan2600minaltitude,butmostofthe rangespeakbetween2200-2500m.GeologicallytheEasternArcMountainsareformed mainlyfromPre-Cambrianbasementrocksupliftedabout100millionyearsago(Burgesset al,2003). 5.4EasternArcbiodiversityhotspotsandotherimportantareas TheEasternArcMountainsandCoastalForestsofTanzaniaandKenyahotspotisoneofthe smallestofthe25globalbiodiversityhotspots.Itqualifiesbyvirtueofitshighendemicity andaseveredegreeofthreat.Althoughthehotspotrankslowcomparedtootherhotspots intotalnumbersofendemicspecies,itranksfirstamongthe25hotspotsinthenumberof endemicplantandvertebratespeciesperunitarea.Italsoshowsahighdegreeof congruenceforplantsandvertebrates.Itisalsoconsideredasthehotspotmostlikelyto sufferthemostplantandvertebrateextinctionforagivenlossofhabitatandasoneof11 ‘hyperhot’prioritiesforconservationinvestment(Burgessetal,2003).Atleast200 vertebratesareofconservationconcernandaround500plantspeciesarestrictlyendemic tothesemountains.Thesearemainlyfoundintheforesthabitats(EasternArcMountains, 2015). ThebulkofthehotspotisinitswesternexpansioninTanzania,whichtakesintheEastern ArcMountainsandthewatercatchmentsystemoftheRufijiRiver.ThereisanarrowhooklikeextensionofthehotspotneartheKenya/Tanzaniaborder.ThisfollowstheEasternArc MountainstotheirnorthernmostlimitsintheTaitaHillsinKenya.Thehotspotalsoprojects northwardsforabout100kminanextensionthatincludestheforestsoftheLowerTana River(Burgessetal,2003). ThehotspotincludestheIndianOceanislandsofMafia,PembaandZanzibar.TheEastern ArcMountainsandCoastalForestsofTanzaniaandKenyahotspot(hereafterreferredtoas theEasternArcMountainsandCoastalForestshotspot)isoneofthesmallestofthe25 globalbiodiversityhotspots.Itqualifiesbyvirtueofitshighendemicityandaseveredegree ofthreat.Althoughthehotspotrankslowcomparedtootherhotspotsintotalnumbersof endemicspecies,itranksfirstamongthe25hotspotsinthenumberofendemicplantand vertebratespeciesperunitarea(Myersetal.2000).Italsoshowsahighdegreeof congruenceforplantsandvertebrates.Itisalsoconsideredasthehotspotmostlikelyto sufferthemostplantandvertebrateextinctionforagivenlossofhabitatandasoneof11 ‘hyperhot’prioritiesforconservationinvestment(Burgessetal,2003). Theoriginalforestcover(2000yearsago)ontheEasternArcMountainsisestimatedatto havebeenaround23000km2,ofwhicharound15,000km2remainedby1900anda maximumof5340km2remainedbythemid-1990s.AtthattimetheUdzungwascontained thelargestareaofnaturalforest(1960km2),followedbytheNguru,Uluguru,Rubeho,East Usambaras,SouthPare,WestUsambaras,Mahenge,Ukaguru,NorthPareandTaitaHills(6 km2).TheseandthefollowingestimatesofforeststatusandlossesintheEasternArcLosses weregreatest,relativetooriginalcover,intheTaitas(98%),Ukaguru(90%),Mahenge(89 %)andWestUsambaras(84%).Theforestshadbecomehighlyfragmented,withmeanand medianforestpatchsizesestimatedat10km2and58km2,respectively(Burgessetal, 2003). Kenya’shighestmountains Name Elevation 1 Mount Kenya 5,199 m 2 Mount Elgon 4,321 m 3 Mount Kinangop 3,906 m 4 Opuru 2,856 m 5 Ng’iro 2,848 m 6 Longonot 2,776 m 7 Mount Kulal 2,285 m 8 Oldoinyo Sapuk 2,150 m 9 Mount Marsabit 1,707 m 10 Mogila 1,698 m 5.4Profileof‘watertower’mountainsinKenya Kenya’sfivemain‘watertowers’(mountaincatchmentsthatsupplyriverbasins)arethe AberdareMountains,theMauforestcomplex,MountKenya,MountElgonandthe CheranganiHills.Thesemountainscover2%ofthecountry,butbecauseoftheirelevation theyinterceptcloudsblowingofftheIndianOceanandthuscapturerainforthecountry. ThesemountainsarethesourcesofallbutoneofKenya’smajorriversandtheirforestsand soilsstoreandreleasewaterthatensuresyear-roundflowofmostrivers,supplyingmore than75%ofthecountry’srenewablesurfacewater.Inthelast20years,theforestshave beenseverelylogged,andthemajorriversarenolongerflowingastheyshould, necessitatingnewcommunityapproachestomountainmanagement(Pearce,2015). Thevalueofthehydrologicalecosystemservicesprovidedbymontaneandhighlandforests isincreasinglybeingrecognizedandforthisreasontheseforestsareoftencalled“water towers.”ThedraftWildlifeBillof2011specificallylists19ofthemasbeingof“national importance”(Byersetal,2011:16). ProtectedWaterTowersofNationalImportance(Kenya) 1 Mt.KenyaEcosystem 2. AberdaresEcosystem 3. Mt.ElgonEcosystem 4. MauForestComplex 5. CheranganiForests 6. ShimbaHillsEcosystem 7. ChyuluHills 8. TaitaHills 9. MarsabitForest 10. KibweziForest 11. NgongForest 12. KaruraForest 13. MathewsRange 14. MuaHills 15. LoitaHills 16. KakamegaForestNationalReserve 17. BonjogeForest 18. OlDonyoSabukNationalPark 19. NdundoriHill 5.5EastAfricanRiftValleyandlakes Kenyaishometo64(9.50%)ofthetotalnumberoflakesfoundwithinthecontinentof Africa.EightofthesemakeupthemainlakesintheKenyanRiftValley.Fromnorthtosouth, thenamesoftheselakesareLakeTurkana,LakeLogipi,LakeBaringo,LakeBogoria,Lake Nakuru,LakeElmenteita,LakeNaivasha,andLakeMagadi.Ofthoseeight,onlyLakesBaringo andNaivashaarefreshwater. LakeTurkana,atthenorthernendoftherift,is250kilometreslong,between15kilometres and30kilometreswideandis125metresdeepatitsgreatestdepth.Mostoftheother lakesareshallowandpoorlydrained,andthereforehavebecomealkaline.Theyhavewaters thatarerichinblue-greenalgae,whichfeedinsectlarvae,smallcrustaceansandLesser Flamingos.ThelarvaeandcrustaceansarefoodforfishandGreaterFlamingos.Massive flocksofthesebirdshavebeenfoundtohaveaneffectonthelakesidesedimentsalso.Their numberscausetramplingofthesiltsincertainareas,whilethefeedinggroundsare oxygenatedduetoprobingbeaksinthemud.Theirnestmoundscanalsobepreservedand cementedasthelake'swaterlevelschange.Theseformirregularitiesinthelakeside topography. ThreeshallowalkalinelakesandthesurroundinglandsmakeuptheKenyaLakesystem:Lake Bogoriaat10700hectares(26000acres),LakeNakuruat18800hectares(46,000acres) andLakeElementaitaat2534hectares(6,260acres).LakeBogoriaisacausticcauldron fringedbygeysersandpopulatedbyoveramillionflamingos.Thissystemofalkalinelakes hasoneofthemostdiversepopulationsofbirdsintheworld,andisthehomeofthirteen globallythreatenedspeciesofbird.ItisanimportantnestingandbreedingsiteforGreat WhitePelicans,andisthemostimportantfeedingareaforlesserflamingosintheworld.The systemishometogloballyimportantpopulationsofBlack-neckedGrebe,African Spoonbill,PiedAvocet,LittleGrebe,Yellow-billedStork,Black-wingedStilt,Grey-headed GullandGull-billedTern. TheKenyaLakesystemisakeylocationontheWestAsian-EastAfricanFlyway,aroute followedbyhugenumbersofbirdsintheirannualmigrationfrombreedinggroundsinthe northtowinteringplacesinAfrica.Thelandsaroundthelakesincludelargepopulationsof blackrhino,Rothschild'sgiraffe,greaterkudu,lion,cheetahandwilddogs.TheKenyaLake systemissurroundedbythesteepescarpmentoftheRiftValley.OtherlakesareLakeChew Bahir,inthenortheastextension.ThislakeliesmainlyinEthiopiabutextendsintoKenyain therainyseason.LakeKamnarokisanothersmalllake. RiftValleylakes EasternRiftValleylakesarelocatedwithinKenyaandTanzania,whilethenorthernRiftValleylakes arelocatedinEthiopia.SouthoftheEthiopianhighlands,theriftvalleysplitsintotwomajortroughs. TheEasternRiftishometotheKenyanRiftValleylakes,whilemostoftheCentralAfricanRiftValley lakeslieintheWesternRift.TheKenyansectionoftheRiftValleyishometoeightlakes,ofwhich3 arefreshwaterandtherestalkaline.Ofthelatter,theshallowsodalakesoftheEasternRiftValley havecrystallisedsaltturningtheshoreswhite,andarefamousforthelargeflocksofflamingothat feedoncrustaceans.2Thedetailsofthelakesareshownbelow. • LakeTurkana(6405km²,elevation360m,freshwater)isthelargestoftheKenyanlakes,onthe borderofKenyaandEthiopia. • LakeLogipiisashallowhot-springfedsodalakeintheSugutaValleyjustsouthofLakeTurkana. • LakeBaringo(80sqmiles,elevation1000m)freshwater,secondlargestoftheKenyanRiftValley lakes. • LakeBogoria(34km²,elevation990m)shallowsodalake,anationalpreserve • LakeNakuru(40km²,elevation1759m)shallowsodalake,hasbeenanationalparksince1968 • LakeElmenteita,shallowsodalake • LakeNaivasha(160km²–variessomewhatwithrainfall,elevation1,890m),freshwaterlake,is thehighestinthisgroup. • LakeMagadi,shallowsodalakenearthesouthernborderwithTanzania. TheTanzaniansectionofthisgrouphasalkalinelakes: • Lake Natron, shallow soda lake which has categorised by the World Wildlife Fund as the East Africanhalophyticsecoregion. • LakeManyara, • LakeEyasi,shallowsodalake • LakeMakati,shallowsodalake 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rift_Valley_lakes ProtectedareasandmountainsinKenya ThemainprotectedareasinKenyaincludethecountry’snationalparks,namelyTsavo NationalPark,theMaasaiMara,MarsabitGameReserve,TurkanaGameReserve,Meru NationalPark,andpartsofAmboseliNationalPark.TheInternationalUnionforthe ConservationofNature(IUCN)CategoryVImanagedresource–protectedareasincludeparts ofTsavoEast,SamburuGameReserve,andTanaRiverGameReserve;otherIUCNareas includethosearoundMountKenyaandMountElgoninthecentralandwesternpartsofthe country,respectively,thesoutherntipoftheKenya–Somaliaborder,Samburuinthemid northregion,andpartsofSouthRift.Waterandbiodiversityfromprotectedareascan contributetoadaptationtoclimatechangethroughinterventionssuchastheuseof irrigationagricultureandgeneticmaterialsfromthewildinbreedingforadaptationtothe adverseeffectsofclimatechange.However,amajorityofthecountryisnotprotected, whichimpliesthatspeciesofecologicalimportance,includingtheendangeredones,thatfall insuchareasaresusceptibletodestructivehumanactivities(Waithujuetal,2013:193). Naturalresourcedepletion,disasters,landdegradationandwater issues Thecountry’srenewablenaturalresourcesconstituteitsmaineconomicassetandtheframeworkfor both agricultural production and tourism, making environmental conservation a priority for sustainableruraldevelopment(RuralPortalKenya,n.d.). Galanairrigationproject Theimpactsofuncontrolledandcorruption-linkedmasslogginghasnowresultedin mountaincatchmentsthatdonotfunctionproperlyanylonger.Pearce(2015)reporteda discussionwithaKenyanAgriculturalMinistry,whichreportedthatoneofitsflagship irrigationschemes,the1544mile2Galanaproject,couldbeallbutmoribundwhenitopens laterthisyearbecauseofalackofwater.TheRiverTana,whichdrainsfromtheAberdares watertower,wascarryingsolittlewaterthattheproject’scanals,plannedtodrawwater fromtheTana,wouldbeabletoirrigateonly2%ofthefieldsduetobecultivatedaspartof theproject.Also,theonce-perennialriverEwasoNgiro,whichdrainsfromMountKenya, andwatersthepasturesofcattle-herdinggroupsliketheSamburu,nowregularlyrunsdry foraround100daysayear.Pearcestatesthatprotectingthewatertowersisvital.Without them,Kenyawouldbelittlemorethandesert.Governmentcorruptionandcorruptsenior officialsisbehindtheillegalannexureofforestedhillsidesforfarmlandandtimber(Pearce, 2015). Atthesametime,clearingforestforfarmingandchoppingtreesforcharcoalproductionwas fullyunderway,withmorethan14000charcoalkilnsintheforestsoftheAberdares(Pearce 2015). Issuesofenvironmentaldegradation-Landdegradationisamajorthreattoecosystemfunctioning in the areas classified as having both high and low agricultural potential in Kenya. More recent studies extrapolating on local findings of spatial and temporal patterns estimate that land degradationisincreasinginseverityandextentinmanyareasofthecountryandthatover20%ofall cultivatedareas,30%offorests,and10%ofgrasslandsaresubjecttodegradation(Waswa,2012). Classification of Landsat imagery for the period 1973, 1988 and 2003 showed that there were significantchangesinlanduselandcover(LULC)inthewesternKenyadistrictswiththeareaunder agricultural activities increasing from 28% in 1973 to 70% in 2003 while those under wooded grassland decreasing from 51% to 11% over the same period. Detailed field observations and measurements showed that over 55% of the farms sampled lacked any form of soil and water conservationtechnologies.Sheeterosionwasthemostdominantformofsoillossobservedinover 70%ofthefarms(Waswa,2012). Unfortunately, the areas, which experience the highest degradation risk, coincide with the most productive areas in the country. These areas include the Central Kenya Highlands, the eastern DistrictsofMachakos,KituiandEmbu,WesternKenya,theLakeVictoriabasinandsomepartsofthe coastal zone. These areas also continue to experience increased fragmentation and deforestation due to increasing pressure for new cultivation and grazing lands as well as for settlement. Land scarcityhascausedincreasedmigrationofpeopletothefragilearidandsemi-aridareasinsearchof land for cultivation and settlement. Cultivation of such arid areas characterized by little and unreliablerainfallresultsinfrequentcropfailuresandleavesmostofthelandbareforlongperiods henceincreasingthevulnerabilityofthelandtosoilerosion(Waswa,2012:1-2). International treaties - Kenya is a signatory to the UN Convention on Combatting Desertification (UNCCD), yet over the years, the administration and management of land in Kenya have been challengingbecauseofthelackofacomprehensivenationallandpolicy,worsenedbytheexistence ofmanydifferentlandlaws,someofwhichareconflicting.Thishasledtofragmentationoftheland, breakdown in land administration, and disparities in land ownership. Other challenges include deterioration of land quality, squatting, landlessness, underuse and abandonment of agricultural land, tenure insecurity, and conflict. There is no adequate monitoring of many of the land degradation issues both at national and local scale in Kenya (Waswa, 2012). To address these challenges, the Government of Kenya has developed policies and legal and institutional reforms regardingthesecurityoflandtenure,landuseanddevelopment,andsustainableconservationofthe environment(Waithukuetal,2013:191). Water - Kenya is a water-scarce country by global standards. Factors such as soil erosion, which makeslandlessproductiveandcontributestosiltbuild-upinmajorreservoirs,affecttheabilityof peopletoobtainwaterforagriculture.Accesstowaterandsoilfertilitymaintenancearecriticalfor thelivelihoodsofruralpoorpeopleandarethekeytodevelopmentinKenya.Onlyabout46%of ruralpeoplehaveaccesstocleanwater.Inrecentdecades,degradationofthenaturalresourcebase has intensified. The pace of deforestation, soil erosion and domestic and industrial pollution has quickened.Thepastthreedecadesofoverexploitationandencroachmenthaveshrunkthecountry’s forest cover, now occupying only 2 per cent of the land. All of these factors have contributed to declining water catchment capacity and more severe flood and drought conditions. This, together withagrowingpopulation,meansthatpercapitawateravailabilityinKenyaisonlyaboutonetenth thatoftheneighbouringEastAfricancountriesofUgandaandtheUnitedRepublicofTanzania. Disasters – Kenya’s disasters are linked to droughts, floods and epidemics. Kenya has a draft National Disaster Risk management Policy which integrates disaster risk management in planning andbudgeting(Hyogo,Kenya,2015). Climatechangeprojections,vulnerablesectorsandimpacts Climatechangeprojections-WidespreadwarminghasbeenobservedoverKenyasince1960.There is little projected precipitation data available for Kenya, as downscaled predictions for rainfall are difficulttomodel,butthereissomelimitedevidencefordecreasingprecipitationbetween1960and 2003,theperiodforwhichsomedataisavailable.FortheA1BSCRESemissionsscenarioprojections for temperature increases over Kenya, show good agreement between the CMIP3 ensemble members. The CMIP33 model ensemble projects strong precipitation increases over East Africa, in particular Kenya, with increases of over 20% projected with strong agreement across the CMIP3 models(UKMetoffice,n.d.).OtherstudieshaveshownthatfuturewarmingwillintensifytheinterannualvariabilityofEastAfrica’srainfalltherebyimpactingonhowlandisused(Wolffetal.2011, citedinWaswa,212). The Kenyan National Climate Change Action Plan (2013 – 2017) (Kenyan NCCAP, 2013) states that rainfalltrendsshowmixedsignalswithsomelocationsindicatingtrendstowardswetterconditions in recent years, but the majority of locations are not showing any significant trends. The annual rainfallshowseitherneutralorslightlydecreasingtrendsduetoageneraldeclineinthelongrains seasonthatextendsfromMarchtoMay.TheshortrainsseasonbetweenOctoberandDecember,on theotherhand,showsapositivetrendinsomelocations. Vulnerable sectors - The majority of global- and regional-scale studies generally project yield declines with climate change for Kenya’s most important staple crops, maize and beans. Several global-scalestudiesprojectthatKenyacouldfaceincreasinglyseriousfoodsecurityissuesoverthe next 40 years (UK Met Office, n.d.). Kenya is currently a country of moderately high levels of undernourishment. Kenya’s tourism industry depends on wildlife populations that are highly susceptible to climate variabilityandchange(NationalClimateChangeActionPlan,2010). Water-RecentanalysisofKenya’scurrentwaterresourceshasshownitisexposedtoahighwater securitythreatacrossitsentirearea.Futurewateravailabilityisuncertain,withpotentialincreasesin annualrun-offmaskingoverallreductionsinwateravailabilityduringcertainperiods,whilestudies neglect the lack of infrastructure to store water. There are currently large uncertainties remain in 3 CMIP3referstoaclimatemodelcomparisonproject,nowatphase3,calledtheCoupledModel IntercomparisonProject(CMIP3). global-,regional-andnational-scaleprojectionsoffuturewaterstressanddroughtforthecountry, and as such, knowledge is little improved beyond that reported in the IPCC AR4. Simulations from the AVOID programme project that climate change generally has a minor impact on water stress beyond2030inKenya,andthatsomepartsofthecountrymayexperienceadecreasewithclimate changefrom2050onward(UKMetOffice,n.d.).National-scalestudieshighlighttheimportanceof water storage in ameliorating and managing the impact of future climate change on the country’s crops. Theenergysectorlargelydependsonhydro-powerwhichcontributesabout50%ofthetotalnational energy production. This sector has already been impacted by droughts and unreliable rainfall (NationalClimateChangeActionPlan,2010). Conventiononclimatechange(UNFCCC)-KenyaisasignatorytotheUNFCCC(signed12Jun1992, ratified30Aug1994andenteredintoforce28Nov1994).Kenyarecognisesthatitsvulnerability,as in other developing countries, is their dependence on climate sensitive natural resources for our livelihoodsandeconomicsustenance(NationalClimateChangeActionPlan2013–2017).National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) in 2010 to investigate vulnerability in the country and potentialfutureresponses,aswellasaNationalClimateChangeActionPlan(2013). Sustainabledevelopmentchallenges SustainabledevelopmentplanningforKenyawillhavetoaddresstheimpactsofclimatechangeon thecountry’ssocio-economicgrowth,properplanningandimplementationofactionsarenecessary. Such measures should include appropriate adaptation to enhance the country’s capacity to cope with the impacts of climate change and build resilience, as well as development choices that minimizecarbonemissions. From the National Climate Change Action Plan (2013), the authors state that Kenya’s Vision 2030 document will be the long-term development blueprint for the country – aims to transform Kenya into“anewlyindustrialising,middle-incomecountryprovidingahighqualityoflifetoallitscitizens inacleanandsecureenvironment.”Alowcarbonclimateresilientdevelopmentpathway,assetout in this National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP), can help meet Vision 2030’s goals through actionsthataddressbothsustainabledevelopmentandclimatechange.Thispathwaycanalsohelp the Government achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and other internationally agreed development goals without compromising the environment and the natural resource base (KenyaNCCAP,2013). Climate change is not only a threat to the achievement of sustainable development and poverty reduction but has the potential to reverse the modest gains that Kenya has achieved towards attaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Like many other sub-Saharan African countries, Kenya faces multiple pressures from population dynamics, land degradation and climate changewhichcombinetounderminepovertyalleviation,socialdevelopmentandeconomicgrowth efforts. The pressure of a rapidly growing population, combined with erratic rainfall patterns, increasestheriskofdisasters,foodinsecurityandenvironmentaldegradation.Addressingpopulation dynamicsandclimatechangetogetherneedstobecomeatopdevelopmentpriorityforKenya.Joint investment in family planning and climate change strategies will help to preserve the environment andnaturalresources,andreducepovertyandinequalitiesbyloweringthechilddependencyburden and creating more livelihood and investment opportunities for women, families and communities (AFIDEPandPAI(2012). Summaryofsocialchallenges • Addressing population growth and climate change together should be a top development priorityifKenyaistoachievesustainabledevelopmentgoals Summaryofeconomicchallenges • Growing the economy in difficult economic times, especially to provide jobs for a huge young population presently being support by a smaller group of working people (World Bank report, Kenya,2014). • Also,astheeconomybeginstogrowinthefuture,thepotentialforincreasinggreenhousegas emissions and the need for renewable energy sources will become important in achieving sustainabledevelopment.Transitioningtoalowcarbonclimateresilientdevelopmentpathway will reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate risks and improve Kenya’s ability to prosper under a changing climate while contributing towards the global efforts to reduce greenhouse gases(GHG)emissions(NationalClimateChangeActionPlan,2010:1). Summaryofenvironmentalchallenges • EnvironmentalissuesinKenyaincludedeforestation,soilerosion,desertification,watershortage anddegradedwaterquality,flooding,poaching,anddomesticandindustrialpollution. Summary Selectedsocial,economicandenvironmentalindicators:Kenya Indicator Score/comment DevelopmentStatusofcountry(LeastDevelopedStatus,UN) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Least_developed_country#Africa_.2834_co untries KenyaisnotconsideredaLDC StatusontheFSI2014 http://ffp.statesindex.org/ FSIscore99.0. Inthe‘Alert’categoryofrisk HumanDevelopmentstatus2014 Rank 145, Development Population size (UNDP HDI Report, 2014), 2050 and 2100 (World PopulationReport,2014). 44.35 million (2014); 99 million (2050)and159(2100) Populatiogrowthrate(averageannualpercent)(2010-2015)*** 2.11% Low Human Contraceptiveprevalencerate*** 45% Changesinpercentofpopulationlivinginurbanareasbetween1990and 2050 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Highlights/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf (page 20) 1990 = 17%; 2014 = 25.0 % urbanand2050=44%urban. Percent of the population living on degraded land (http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/population-living-degraded-land) 31percent %arableland(orlandundercultivation)* 48.2 Population/haarableland 0.13*** Populationlivinginpoverty(percentageofpopulationbelowthepoverty line,2012)# 43.4 Populationlivinginmultidimensionalpoverty(UNDPHDIReport,2014) 48.19% Majorinfectiousdiseases(2013):*** Degreeofrisk:high Landunderconservation(%surfacearea)(2010)*** 11.74% Threatenedspecies(2012) 346 Forestedarea(%oftotallandarea)(2010) 6% Percentageoftotalwaterused(2005)*** 8.9% Carbonemissionspercapita(tonnes)** 0.3 Structureoftheeconomy2010(relianceonagriculture) Services sector makes up more then 3/4 of the economy, agriculture 15 %. 80% of workforce in subsistence agriculture Typesofnaturalhazards*** Recurring drought, flooding duringrainyseasons Climatechangeprojections Warmingtrendalreadyevident, rainfall patterns complex, not yetclearwhatfuturetrendsfor differentregions *http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZS **http://www.prb.org/pdf06/06WorldDataSheet.pdf ***http://www.indexmundi.com/kenya/demographics_profile.html ****http://www.uneca.org/oria/pages/kenya References ByersB(2011).KenyaTropicalForestandBiodiversityAssessment,September2011. 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