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Presented at Kaohsiung Water Forum April 21-25, 2013 – Kaohsiung Taiwan Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment in City Level Greater Malang, Palembang City and Tarakan Island Budhi Setiawan Civil Engineering Department, Sriwijaya University INDONESIA Senior Technical Advisor on Office for Climate Change Resilience – Ministry of National Development Planning Outline • Climate Risk and Adaptation Assesssment Framework in Indonesia • Flood Risk and Adaptation Method • Landslide Risk and Adaptation Method • Analysis of Climate Risk and Adaptation in : – Greater Malang – Palembang City – Tarakan Island CLIMATE RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN INDONESIA Approaches in Research of Climate Change Impact (CCIAVA) (Modified from IPCC, 2007) Approach Impact Vulnerability Adaptation Processes effecting Processes effecting Impact and risk under vulnerability to climate adaptation and adaptive Scientific Objective future climate change capacity Practical aims Actions to reduce risks Action to reduce vulnerability Action to improve adaptation Vulnerability indicators and profiles Standard approach to Past and present climate risk CCIAV Livelihood analysis Driver-pressure-stateAgent-based methods Narrative methods Research methods impact-response (DPSIR) methods Risk perception including critical threshold Hazard-driven risk Development/sustainability policy performance assessment Relationship of adaptive capacity to sustainable development Motivation Research Driven Research/Stakeholders Driven RISK Risk and Policy Response Assessment Integrated Interaction and feedbacks between multiple driver and impacts Mainstreaming into Global policy options and Policy Making costs Risk Assessment Procedures Risk composes of Hazards and Vulnerability Integrated assessment modeling Cross-sectoral interactions Integration of climate with other drivers Stakeholder discussions linking models across types and scales Combining assessment approaches/methods Policy Driven Research/ Stakeholders Driven Risk Assessment Approach Climate stimuli • Temperature • Rainfall • Sea level IPCC AR4 Projected changes in : • mean • variability • extremes Surface condition : • topography • land cover • etc Additional analysis/ modeling CC Hazards (by sectors) • Water resources • availability () • flood & drought () • Agricultural • production () planting failure harvest failure lower productivity • Health • incidence rate () DBD Malaria Diarrhea • Coastal • inundated area () SLR Extreme events Elements of Built Environment Bio-Physical • # Houses • Cultivated area • etc Vulnerability Components • (E)xposure • (S)ensitivity • (A)daptive(C)apacity V E S AC Social • Population density • # Vulnerable group • etc Economic • # Assets • GDP growth • etc (R) isk = H×V H = F(f,M,p) Pseudo Equation (Wisner et al., 2004) Adaptation Planning with DRR Framework (1)Understand the climatic hazard uncertainty past proxy data present obs. data future climate model Climate scientists (2)Assess Risks • Hazard Assessments • Vulnerability Assessments • Risk Maps • Potential Impact Assess. Macro-scale : • National scale • Policy & Laws • Long-term planning Meso-scale : • Province & Municipality • Policy / Strategy • Mid-term Planning Micro-scale : • Municipality • Spatial planning • Adaptation action Climate scientists, engineers, economic & policy analysts (3)Reduce Risks • Reduce Hazard Level • Reduce Vulnerability Level • Structural • Technological • Socio-cultural • etc. measures • To save human lives • To save investments (4)Transfer Risks • Financial instruments • Reduce economic loss • Accelerate recovery Planners, Decision makers (1)Science Basis Vulnerability Analysis : • Bio-Physic, Social, Economic • Baseline • Dynamic Vulnerability (2) Risk Analysis ClimatevAnalysis & Projection Rainfall and temperature in baseline and projection Hazard Analysis : • Water shortage/drought • Flood • Landslide Hazard Map Vulnerability Map Risk Map as Impact of Climate Change (3) Adaptation Policy • Identify of risk area • Prioritize of adaptation program • Recommendation General Method Hazard Stimulation (climatic driven) H / V Components (nonclimatic driven) Vulnerabilities (V) GIS R : H x V (E,S,AC) H, V & R Analysis (Baseline/B & Projection/P) Hazards (H) Risks (R) Adaptation Measures (Programs & Activities) Adaptation Analysis (B & P) Adaptation Policy & Strategy FLOOD RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT Swamp and river Drainage Infrastructure Inundation Building Land Use and RTRW PDA Statistic Administrative Boundary Data Process Vulnerability Hazard Risk analysis Adaptation strategy LANDSLIDE RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT Triggering Factor STEP I Environmental Factor Landuse Geology Soil Type Slope Rainfall Landslide Occurences CRD Building Density Infrastructure IDF STEP II Ground water Table Recharge STEP III Soil Strength Decreases Landslide Hazard Analysis Vulnerability Analysis (Map of Landslide Vulnerability) (Map of Hazard) STEP IV Risk= Hazard x Vulnerability (Map of Landslide Risk) STEP V Adaptation Strategy ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN GREATER MALANG (FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE) Climate condition in Greater Malang 1 0.9 1 yr 5 yr Probability of Exceedence 0.8 2 yr 0.7 0.6 0.5 10 yr 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 50 100 150 200 Rainfall (mm/day) 250 300 Probability of exceedence rainfall with return periods 1, 2, 5, and 10 years Relationship between monthly rainfall and probability of extreme rainfall Hazard Potential of Flood in Greater Malang Baseline Projection 16 Flood vulnerability in Greater Malang Baseline Projection Flood Risk in Baru City Baseline Projection Flood Risk in Malang City Baseline Projection Flood Risk in Malang Regency Baseline Projection Kurva IDF (Intensity-Duration Frequency) 300.0 intensitas 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 5 10 20 kurva-basis 280.0 200.6 128.0 30 94.0 40 74.2 durasi kurvabasis Slope stability analysis based on climate change hazard 50 61.4 60 52.3 Landslide Hazard in Greater Malang Hazard Baseline Map of December 2006, as the most wet month Hazard Baseline Map of December 2007 as the most dry month Landslide Vulnerability in Greater Malang Components Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity baseline Indicators Population density Sub-indicators Population and population growth per sub-district Weighting 0.54 Landuse Landuse as in regional planning 0.22 Role of infrastructure Population Welfare Road infrastructure Population’s income 0.18 0.06 projection Landslide risk map for baseline condition (Observation data) Landslide risk map for baseline condition (Simulation data) Risk Area (m2) Risk Level Baseline Observation Very Low Low Moderate High Very High Landslide risk map for projection condition Projection Simulation Simulation 760.260.000 792.590.000 2.141.700.000 1.639.880.000 1.657.270.000 328.540.000 152.550.000 115.720.000 56.510.000 33.440.000 20.620.000 54.200.000 250.000 190.000 880.000 Landslide Risk Area of Great Malang ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN PALEMBANG CITY (FLOOD) Palembang City Palembang in Coastal Area, Swamp Area, River and Lowland The Development in Swamp Area = River Regional Climate Aldrian and Susanto (2003) (Curah Hujan di Asia Tenggara peta awal 1900-an, Broek, 1944) Sumsel beriklim basah; batas antara tipe monsunal (satu puncak) dan ekuatorial (dua puncak) ? Past Local Climate in Palembang Equatorial Monsunal Limit of dry/wet month from Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Ekuatorial in dry season De gemiddelde jaartemperaturen op de kustplaatsen verschillen minder dan l°C. en bewegen zich, voor zoover bekend, tusschen 26.6 en 27.3° C. ; het gemiddelde verschil tusschen dag- en nachttemperatuur is 5 a 6° C. ; dat tusschen de warmste en de koudste maand iets meer dan 1° C. TEMPERATURE Temperature : • Monthly mean temperature has two peaks that seems to lag about one month or more from the equinoxes with an average value of slightly above 27° C. It is of interest to note that the temperature difference between warmest (May) and coolest (January) months is about 1° C. (C. Lekkerkerker, 1916). Source : Hadi, 2011 Figure below shows Baseline condition of temperature for baseline (1955-1999) and projection of temperature (2009-2099). Development The trend of temperature does not show significant increasing from year of 1951 to 2030. From the 3 scenarios SRES the temperature increase to 1° C relative to (1961-1990) Verification weighting Projection Source : Hadi, 2011 RAINFALL Source : Hadi, 2011 Source : Hadi, 2011 Slightly different in the mountains area on the North West it becomes unclear in dry season (rainfall is relatively higher) Rainfall analysis are using some scenarios of IPCC, although the models show large discrepancy from observations, the increase of rainfall during the last decade was obtained from the results from A1B and A2 scenarios. In general, results from these two scenarios produce similar rainfall variations at least until early 2030s. Source : Hadi, 2011 The models shows the spatial variability of rainfall for baseline condition (1951-1990) by using Observation data (left) and SRA1B scenarios of IPCC. Hazard analysis Baseline (2010) Projection (2030) Vulnerability Baseline (2010) Projection (2030) Difference Analysis Level of Vulnerability Messo Micro Local Baseline Baseline Baseline Projection Projection Projection Risk Analysis • R= H x V Baseline (2010) Projection (2030) Adaptation Strategy/Action Land use type Short-term Long term Increasing level of road surface Road Drainage normalisation Increasing level of pavement Bio-pore Housing and building Drainage normalisation Increasing the amount of farming Watershed area River normalisation Pumping Swamp area Drainage normalisation Industry, office, trade and Infiltration Measure service area (permeable paving) Infiltration Measure Other landuse type (permeable paving) Drainage normalisation Install embankment Monitoring to the regulation Bio-pore Detention Canalisation Green space ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN TARAKAN ISLAND (LANDSLIDE) Tarakan Island • On east-side of Kalimantan, Indonesia • Located at 3o14'23"-3o26'37" Northern Latitude and 117o30'50"-117o40'12“ Eastern Longitude • 61 Landslide occurences until 2010 • Slope 0-15% • Extreme scenario of rainfall intensity is 100 mm/Hours (with the longest duration is 2 hours) • Annual rainfall has two peak; on April (338 mm with average monthly temperature) and November, 360 mm mmt), meanwhile the most dry is on February (252 mm mmt) • The estimation of temperature increasing is higher than 0,5 degree C/100 years Annual pattern of climate Rainfall Temperatur Projection of climate Survey lokasi longsor Hazard Components: • • • • Landslide occurence Slope Geology Ground Water Recharge Stabiliy modelling Modelling Kelurahan Kampung Enam 1 Kampung Enam 2 Pamusian (Ladang dalam) Kampung Baru 1 Kampung Baru 2 Kampung Baru 3 Pamusian (Markoni dalam) Gunung Lingkas (Jl.TMD) Sebengkok 7 Sebengkok 8 Sebengkok 9 Sebengkok 10 Kampung Satu Skip 1 Kampung Satu Skip 2 Kampung Satu Skip 3 Kampung Satu Skip 4 Kampung Satu Skip 5 Kampung Satu Skip 6 Kampung Satu Skip 7 Karanganyar 1 Karanganyar 2 Karanganyar 3 Karanganyar 4 karang anyar 5 Karanganyar 6 Karanganyar 7 Karanganyar 8 Juata Permai 1 Juata Permai 2 Karang Balik 1 X_coord Y_coord Kelurahan X_coord Y_coord 569047 365608 Karang Balik 2 565467 365390 569439 366217 Karang Balik 3 565526 365380 566939 366518 Karang Balik 4 565182 365781 569581 361431 566233 366429 Mamburungan Timur 560885 380305 566273 366198 Juata Laut 1 561024 380413 566506 366206 Juata Laut 2 561763 380233 566662 365150 Juata Laut 3 563223 370499 566369 364409 karang harapan 1 563569 369782 566377 364453 karang harapan 2 571892 364062 566034 364745 pantai amal 1 571835 364144 565766 365248 pantai amal 2 569838 366204 565817 364186 pantai amal 3 569316 365575 565648 367837 kampung enam 3 565428 365739 565730 367939 Karang Balik 1 565611 365728 565924 368020 Karang Balik 2 565882 365505 565861 367787 Sebengkok 1 565892 365396 567049 367541 Sebengkok 2 565871 365463 567535 367070 Sebengkok 3 565945 365619 567391 366852 Sebengkok 4 565945 365491 565197 367188 Sebengkok 5 565992 365463 565114 367103 Sebengkok 6 565704 364833 565141 367188 Selumit 1 565710 364987 565078 366936 Selumit 2 565433 364782 564499 367360 Selumit 3 565538 363812 565260 366824 Gn. Lingkas ujung 566319 364375 566021 367099 Gn.Lingkas 1 566394 364447 566456 367367 Gn.Lingkas 2 566516 364805 560370 371544 Gn.Lingkas 3 566137 367079 560377 371540 Kampung Bugis 564366 367152 565484 365358 Perumnas Landslide existing map Probability index Hazard Components : 380000 • • • • Landslide occurence Slope Geology N Ground Water Recharge 555000 560000 565000 570000 No 575000 1 2 3 4 5 6 Steepness Flat Gently Sloping Sloping Steep Very steep Extremely steep 580000 380000 375000 375000 370000 370000 365000 Index : 1 2 3 4 5 360000 Skala : 3 0 365000 3 360000 6 KM 555000 560000 565000 570000 575000 580000 Slope 0-2 % 3-7 % 8-13 % 14-20 % 21-55 % >56% 555000 560000 565000 570000 575000 580000 380000 380000 Hazard Components: N • • • • Landslide occurence Slope Geology Ground water recharge 375000 375000 370000 370000 365000 360000 Indeks : 1 2 3 4 365000 Skala : 3 0 3 360000 6 KM 555000 No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Geology Clayey sand Monmorilonit Conglomerate Quarter Sediment Coal Sandstone Claystone 560000 565000 570000 575000 580000 Grain size Texture Cohession Phi Consolidation Total Index 3 1 4 2 1 1 2 4 1 3 3 4 2 1 1 12 10 11 4 1 2 1 1 3 2 3 10 1 4 3 1 3 3 3 2 1 4 3 4 1 1 1 3 13 12 12 3 4 4 Rainfall - Recharge Hazard Components: • • • • Rainfall Landslide occurence Slope Geologi Ground Water Recharge Using Cummulative Rainfall Departure Method (CRD) Ground Water Recharge Modelling in Tarakan Island 600 20000 15000 500 10000 400 5000 300 0 -5000 200 -10000 100 -15000 0 Rainfall (mm) -20000 Water Level (mm) Januari Februari Maret April Mei Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober November Desember Kurva IDF (Intensity-Duration Frequency) 300.0 intensitas 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 5 10 20 kurva-basis 280.0 200.6 128.0 30 94.0 40 74.2 50 61.4 durasi kurvabasis Modelling process of slope stability using input of soil strength decrease 60 52.3 Slope Stability Modelling using input of Soil Strength Decrease Landslide Hazard (2020) In Tarakan Island Januari Februari Maret April Juli Agustus September Oktober Mei November Juni Desember Landslide Hazard Area in Tarakan Island Hazard Very Low Low Moderate High Very High January May June 66,52 84,56 66,57 66,52 43,34 66,57 111,55 122,52 128,81 111,55 61,35 111,62 57,34 39,43 48,24 57,30 119,29 65,43 14,38 3,30 6,18 14,39 25,14 6,18 0,03 0,00 0,02 0,05 0,70 0,02 July Very Low Low Moderate High Very High February Area (KM2) March April August September October November December 66,57 66,57 84,56 66,52 51,45 51,45 128,81 128,81 122,52 111,55 105,05 73,06 48,24 48,24 39,40 57,30 67,60 99,60 6,18 6,18 3,32 14,39 25,02 25,02 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,05 0,69 0,69 Landslide Vulnerability Peta Building Indeks 0,3 Population density 0,25 Slope 0,23 Infrastructure and public facilities 0,12 Landuse 0,1 Landslide Risk (2020) in Tarakan Island Januari Februari Maret April Juli Agustus September Oktober Mei November Juni Desember Landslide Adaptatation Assessment Refferring : • Australian Geomechanics Society (AGS) • Landslide Risk Assessment and Mitigation (LARAM-2000) Describe 4 typical works, i.e : Drainage installation, Slope modification, Retaining Wall, and Internal Slope Reinforcement Risk Design phase Evaluation Reconsider Conceptual design Client/Owner/Regulator to decide to accept or treat technical specialist to advise Design to implement preferred site Review preliminary design and select optimum method of stabilising landslide Feedback Specify any special measures specific to construction through landslide zone Detailed design of short and long term monitoring system Construction phase Install monitoring system Monitoring Maintenance phase Construct Revised design No Is project performing satisfactory ? Feedback Feedback Yes Continue periodic monitoring Feedback Phase of Location Assessment Landuse in High Risk Landslide Tata Guna Lahan Hutan Lebat Jalan Kawasan Terbangun Kebun Campuran Kilang Minyak Kolam Kuburan Lapangan Olahraga Mangrove Perkebunan Pertanian Lahan Kering Rawa Semak Belukar Tambak Tanah Kosong/Tegalan Tubuh Air Map of landslide Adaptation High Risk (m2) Desain Non-Desain 13.056,98 9.530,95 55.804,71 555000 560000 565000 570000 575000 565000 570000 575000 380000 341.448,53 81,49 107,32 9.714,04 0,06 24,81 N 375000 51,08 64.510,56 401,48 191.261,46 1.851,31 370000 30.250,18 2.823,97 365000 Lok as i Desain Penanggulangan Longsor Adaptation and non-adaptation area 360000 Skala : 3 0 6 KM 555000 Evaluation of Landslide Risk 3 560000 Assessment of Landslide Location Adaptation Modelling Process 561200 561600 562000 2 Ground Survey 562400 3 80600 Peta Lokasi Desain Penanggulangan Longsor 3 80200 1 Risk Analysis Keterangan : Resiko Tinggi Bahaya Sangat Tinggi Bangunan Elevas i 97.222 - 110 84.444 - 97.222 71.667 - 84.444 58.889 - 71.667 46.111 - 58.889 33.333 - 46.111 20.556 - 33.333 7.7 78 - 2 0.5 56 -5 - 7.7 78 3 Collecting Data 3 79800 N Skala : 0.1 0 0.1 •Lokasi longsor berada pada Kecamatan Tarakan Utara, Kelurahan juata laut, •Slope 21-40% •Geologi batu pasir •Tata guna lahan berada di pinggir laut dengan kawasan terbangun •Vegetasi rapat •Safety factor 0,79 •kejadian longsor 3 titik (56173,380233), (561024,380413), (560885,380305) 0.2 0.3 0.4 KM 4 Adaptation Measurement Kondisi awal dengan FK = 0,790 (tidak stabil) Desain kestabilan lereng menghasilkan FK = 1,649 (stabil) Thank you for your attention [email protected] [email protected]