Download AP STATISTICS Course Syllabus Teacher: J. Estefano Room:1002

AP STATISTICS Course Syllabus
Teacher: J. Estefano Room:1002
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 480-575-5000 ext: 2424
Office Hours: Mon/Wed 2:00-3:00
COURSE DESCRIPTION: AP Statistics is a high school equivalent of a one semester, introductory
college statistics course. In this course, students develop strategies for collecting, organizing,
analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data. Students design, administer, and tabulate results
from surveys and experiments. Probability and simulations aid students in constructing models
for chance behavior. Sampling distributions provide the logical structure for confidence
intervals and hypothesis tests. Students use a TI-83/83 graphing calculator, and other statistical
software to investigate statistical concepts. To develop effective statistical communication
skills, students are required to prepare frequent written and oral analyses of real data.
COURSE GOALS: In AP Statistics, students are expected to learn skills, knowledge, and habits of
mind. Skills consist of producing convincing oral and written statistical arguments, using
appropriate terminology, and when and how to use technology to aid them in solving statistical
problems. Knowledge refers to essential techniques for producing data, analyzing data
modeling data, and drawing conclusions from data. Habits of mind included ways to become
critical consumers or published statistical results by heightening their awareness of ways in
which statistics can me improperly used to mislead, confuse, and distort the truth.
TEXTBOOKS: The Practice of Statistics for AP* (4th edition), by Starnes, Yates, and Moore, W.H.
Freeman & Co., 2010.
EXAM REVIEW BOOKS: Prep for the AP Exam Guide for The Practice of Statistics (4th edition), by
Michael Legacy and AP Statistics Examination by Michael Allwood.
EXPECTATIONS: This is a college-level class that moves at a fast pace. It is assumed that all
students will show respect for themselves, for their peers, for the teacher, and for any guests at
all times.
ATTENDANCE: Class attendance is essential to a student’s success in this course, where each
day builds on the previous day’s learning. Work missed due to an excused class absence must
be made up within the number of days missed.
PARTICIPATION: Each student must participate in class. Participation includes bringing the
necessary materials to class, homework completion, asking questions for clarification, offering
answers, putting work on board, working with partners or pair-sharing, supporting other
students, and maintaining a good classroom environment.
MATERIALS: three-ring binder with loose-leaf paper, pencils, erasers, colored pen,
straightedge, graphing calculator (TI-83/TI-83 Plus/TI-84)
ASSIGNMENTS: There will be daily reading and homework assignments to be completed
outside of class consuming at least 30-40 minutes per night. A weekly free response question
will be given to students in order for them to gain practice with correct terminology and writing
skills. Unit tests will be given at the end of each unit. Weekly quizzes will also be given to
review and assess concepts throughout each unit. There will be a project assigned each
semester.
TUTORING: Tutoring is available to every student. My office hours are in room 1002, from
2:00-3:00 pm, Mondays and Wednesdays. E-mails are also welcome from those who do not
expect an immediate answer.
GRADING SYSTEM: Homework/Class work will consist of 20% of your grade, tests/quizzes will
be 60% or your grade, and the final exam is worth 20% of your grade. As per school policy: A:
100-90%, B: 89-80%, C: 79-70%, D: 69-60%, F: 59% or lower.
COURSE OUTLINE:
Chapter 1: Exploring Data (9 days)
-Chapter 1 Introduction; Activity: Hiring Discrimination. This activity models the components of
the statistical problem solving process.
1.1 –Analyzing Categorical Data
a) Bar Graphs and pie charts, Graphs: Good and Bad
b) Two-way tables and marginal distributions, relationships between categorical
variables, conditional distributions, organizing statistical problem, technology: analyzing
two way tables
1.2-Displaying Quantitative Data with Graphs
a) Dot plots, describing shape, comparing distributions, stem plots
b) Histograms, using histograms, technology: histograms on TI
Quiz 1.1/1.2
1.3-Describing Quantitative Data with Numbers
a) Measuring center: mean and median; comparing median and mean, measuring
spread: IQR, identifying outliers
b) Five number summary and boxplots, measuring spread: standard deviations, choosing
measures of center and spread, technology: boxplots on calculators, computing
numerical summaries
Assessment-Review and Exam on Chapter 1
Chapter 2: Modeling Distributions of Data (7 days)
2.1-Describing Locations in a Distribution
a) Introduction, measuring position: percentiles, cumulative relative frequency graphs,
measuring position: z-scores
b) Transforming data, density curves
Quiz 2.1
2.2-Normal Distributions
a) Normal distributions, the 69-95-99.7 rule, the standard normal distribution,
technology: standard normal curve calculations with the calculator
b) Normal distribution calculations, technology: normal curve calculations with the
calculator
c) Assessing normality, normal plots on the calculator
Assessment: Review and Chapter 2 Test
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships (8 days)
3.1-Scatterplots and Correlation
a) Explanatory and response variables, displaying relationships: scatterplots,
interpreting scatterplots, technology: scatterplots on the calculator
b) Measuring linear association, facts about correlation, technology: correlation and
regression
Quiz 3.1
3.2 –Least-Squares Regression
a) Least-Squares regression, interpreting a regression line, prediction, technology: leastsquares regression on a calculator
b) Residuals and the least-squares regression line, calculating the equation of the leastsquares regression line, technology: residual plots and s on the calculator
c) How well the line fits the data: residual plots, how well the line fits the data: r 2 in
regression
d) Interpreting computer regression output, correlations and regression wisdom
Assessment: Review and Chapter 3 Test
Chapter 4: Designing Studies (11 days)
4.1-Sampling and Surveys
a) Sampling and surveys, how to sample badly, how to sample well: random samples,
technology: choosing an SRS using the calculator
b) Other sampling methods
c) Inference for Sampling, sample surveys: What can go wrong?
4.2-Experiments
a) Observational studies vs. experiments, the language of experiments, how to
experiment badly
b) How to experiment well, three principles of experimental design
c) Experiments: what can go wrong? Inference for experiments
d) Blocking, matched pairs design
Quiz 4.1/4.2
4.3-Using Studies Wisely
a) Scope of inference, the challenges of establishing causation
b) Data ethics
Chapter 4 Activity: Students work in teams of 2 to design and carry out an experiment
to investigate response bias, write a summary report, and give a 10 minute oral synopsis
to their classmates.
Assessment: Review and Chapter 4 Test
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances? (8 days)
5.1-Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
a) Introduction, the idea of probability, myths about randomness
b) Simulation, technology: random numbers with calculators
Quiz 5.1
5.2-Probability Rules
a) Probability models, basic rules of probability
b) Two-way tables and probability, Venn diagrams and probability
Quiz 5.2
5.3-Conditional Probability and Independence
a) What is conditional probability?, conditional probability ad independence, tree
diagrams and the general multiplication rule
b) Independence: A special multiplication rule, calculating conditional probabilities
Assessment: Review and Chapter 5 Test
Chapter 6: Random Variables (9 days)
6.1-Discrete and Continuous Random Variables
a) Introduction, discrete random variables, mean expected value of a discrete random
variable
b) Standard deviation (and variance) of a discrete random variable, continuous random
variables, technology: analyzing random variables on a calculator
Quiz 6.1
6.2-Transforming and Combining Random Variables
a) Linear transformations
b) Combining random variables, combining normal random variables
Quiz 6.2
6.3-Binomial and Geometric Random Variables
a) Binomial settings and binomial random variables, binomial probabilities, technology:
binomial probabilities on the calculator
b) Mean and standard deviation of a binomial distribution, binomial distributions in
statistical sampling
c) Geometric random variables, technology: geometric probabilities on the calculator
Assessment: Review and Chapter 6 Test
SEMESTER 1 EXAM REVIEW (3 days)
Semester Exam will be a simulated AP format with Multiple Choice and Free Response
Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions (7 days)
7.1-What Is a Sampling Distribution?
a) Introduction: German Tank Problem, parameters and statistics
b) Sampling variability, describing sampling distributions
7.2-Sample Proportions
a) The sampling distribution of p, using the normal approximation for p
Quiz 7.1/7.2
7.3-Sample Means
a) The sample distribution of x bar: mean and standard deviation, sampling from a
normal population
b) The Central Limit Theorem
Assessment: Review and Chapter 7 Test
Chapter 8: Estimating with Confidence (7 days)
8.1-Conficence Intervals: The Basics
a) The idea of a confidence interval, interpreting confidence levels and confidence
intervals, constructing a confidence interval
b) Using confidence intervals wisely
8.2-Estimating a Population Proportion
a) Conditions for estimating p, constructing a confidence interval for p
b) Putting it all together: The Four Step Process, choosing the sample size, technology:
confidence intervals for p on the calculator
Quiz 8.1/8.2
8.3-Esimating a Population Mean
a) When σ is known: the one-size z interval for a population mean, when σ is unknown:
the t distributions, constructing a confidence interval for µ, technology: inverse t on the
calculator
b) Using t procedures wisely, technology: confidence intervals for µ on the calculator
Assessment: Review and Chapter 8 Test
Chapter 9: Testing a Claim (8 days)
9.1-Signifigance Tests: The Basics
a) The reasoning of significance tests, stating hypotheses, interpreting P-values,
statistical significance
b) Type I and Type II errors, planning studies: The Power of a Statistical test
9.2-Tests about a Population Proportion
a) Carrying out a significance test, the one-sample z test for a proportion, technology:
one-proportion z test on the calculator
b) Two-sided test, why confidence intervals give more information
Quiz 9.1/9.2
9.3-Test about a Population Mean
a) Carrying out a significance test for µ, the one sample t test, two-sided tests and
confidence intervals, technology: computing P-values from t Distributions on the
calculator, one sample t Test on the calculator
b) Inference for means: paired data, using tests wisely
Assessment: Review and Chapter 9 Test
Chapter 10: Comparing Two Populations or Groups (8 days)
10.1-Comparing Two Proportions
a) Activity: Is Yawning Contagious?
b) The sampling distribution of a difference between two proportions
c) Confidence intervals for p1-p2, technology: confidence intervals for a difference in
proportions on the calculator
Significance test for p1-p2, inference for experiments, technology: significance tests for
a difference in proportions on the calculator
Quiz 10.1
10.2-Comparing Two Means
a) Activity: Does Polyester Decay?, the sampling distribution of a difference between
two means
b) The two-sample t-statistic, confidence intervals for µ1-µ2, using two-sample 1procedures wisely, technology: two sample t tests with calculators
Assessment: Review and Chapter 10 Test
Chapter 11: Inference for Distributions of Categorical Data (6 days)
11.1-Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Tests
a) Activity: The Candy Man, comparing observed and expected counts: the chi-square
statistic, the chi-square distributions and P-values, technology: finding P-values for chisquare tests on the calculator
b) The chi-square goodness-of-fit test, follow-up analysis, technology: chi-square
goodness-of-fit tests on the calculator
Quiz 11.1
11.2-Inference for Relationships
a) Comparing distributions of categorical variable, expected counts and the chi-square
statistic, the chi-square test for homogeneity, follow-up analysis, comparing several
proportions, technology: chi-square tests for two-way tables on the calculator
B) The chi-square test of association/independence, using chi-square tests wisely
Assessment: Review and Chapter 11 Test
Chapter 12: More About Regression (7 days)
12.1-Inference for Linear Regression
a) Activity: The Helicopter Experiment, the sampling distribution of b, conditions for
regression inference
b) Estimating parameters, constructing a confidence interval for the slope, technology:
regression inference using calculators
c) Performing a significance test for the slope
Quiz 12.1
12.2-Transforming to Achieve Linearity
a) Transforming with powers and roots, technology: transforming to achieve linearity on
the calculator
b) Transforming with logarithms
Assessment: Review and Chapter 12 Test
AP EXAM Review (10 days)
-Practice AP Free Response Questions
-Choosing the Correct Inference Procedure
-Mock Grading Sessions
-Rubric development by student teams
-Practice Multiple Choice Questions
AP STATISTICS EXAM (date TBD) (1 day)
AFTER THE AP EXAM: FINAL PROJECT
PURPOSE: The purpose of this project is for students to actually practice using statistics. The
students are going to form a hypothesis, design a study, conduct the study, collect the data,
describe the data, and make conclusions about the data.
TOPICS: Students may choose any topic of interest, but all 6 steps listed above must be
completed. It must be interesting and note that the degree of difficulty is part of the grade.
GROUP SIZE: Groups will consist of two people. One project will be submitted per group.
PROPOSAL (20 points): In order for the project to get approved, a group must be able to
demonstrate how your study will meet the requirements of the project. In other words, you
need to clarify and completely communication your hypothesis, your explanatory and response
variables, the test/interval you will use to analyze the results, and how you will collect the data
so the conditions for the inference will be satisfied. The group must also make sure that your
study will be safe and ethical if you are using human subjects. This should be typed. If your
proposal isn’t approved, you must resubmit the proposal for partial credit until it is approved.
POSTER (80 points): The key to a good statistical poster is communication and organization.
Make sure that all components of the poster are focused on answering the question of interest
and that all statistical vocabulary is used correctly. The poster should include:

Title (in the form of a question)





Introduction. In the introduction, the group should discuss what question you are trying
to answer, why you chose the topic, what your hypotheses are, and how you will
analyze your data.
Data Collection. In this section, you will describe how you obtained your data. Be
specific.
Graphs, Summary Statistics, and the Raw Data (if numerical). Make sure that the graphs
are well labeled, easy to compare, and help answer the question of interest. You should
include a brief discussion of the graphs and interpretations of the summary statistics.
Discussions and Conclusions. In this section, you will state your conclusion (with the
name of the test, test statistic and P-value) and you should discuss why your inference
procedure is valid. You should also discuss any errors you made, what you could do to
improve the study next time, and any other critical reflections.
Live action pictures of you data collection in progress.
PRESENTATION: Each individual in the group will be required to give a 5 minute oral
presentation to the class.