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Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Violent extremism in
Iraq and Syria
Marcus DuBois King, Ph.D.
John O. Rankin Associate Professor
August 24, 2015
Water Scarcity and Extremism Project:
Key Hypotheses
(H1) Water scarcity is one causal
factor in the Syria and Iraq conflict
(H2) Water “weaponzation” is
accelerating and perpetuating the
conflict
A satellite view (2014) showing the two main rivers running from
Turkey through Syria and Iraq. Credits: MODIS/NASA
Map of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory
Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory
Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory
Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory
Levels of Climate Change Effects in Syria
First
Level:
 Changes in

physical
environment

 Example: higher
temperatures
Second
Level:
Effect on ecological
systems
Example: droughts,
desertification
Third
Level:
 Effect on human
systems
 Example: severe
stress on agriculture,
food security
Fourth
Level
 Effects from human
responses
 Examples:
Inadequate policy
responses, mass
migrations, conflict
Hypothesis 1: Conclusions
 Climate change induced water scarcity played a
meaningful but complicated role in creating desperate
conditions that led to political unrest and ultimately
violent insurrection.
 Violence was perpetrated by IS and others.
 Drought, food insecurity, poverty and migration were
progressive effects that led to desperation.
 More study needed to assign relative weight to
effects.
 Projected climate change will worsen in next 10-20
years
NEXT SECTION: water “weaponzation” is also causing lasting
damage to the vulnerable populations
Categories of Water Weaponization
(based on perpetrators intent)
Strategic Weaponization
Tactical Weaponization
Instrument of Psychological Terrorism
Instrument of Extortion and
Incentivization
Unintentional Weaponization
Water as a Weapon in Syria and Iraq:
Incidents Workbook
Category
Totals
Strategic
Weaponization
Syria
Iraq
23
9
13
Tactical
Weaponization
11
6
6
Psychological Terrorism
4
4
0
Unintentional
Weaponization
7
6
1
Incentivization
2
0
2
N/A
2
0
2
Combatants’ Use of Water as a Weapon
Combatants
No. of Attributed Incidents
ISIS
21
Free Syrian Army
Syrian regime
Iraqi Kurds
2
3
1
Jabhat Al Nusra
3
Islamist Sharia
Council
ISF
Other
NA
2
4
4
6
Water Weaponization by Cluster and Combatants
Source: King and Allers 2015
H2: Islamic State: Use of the Water
Weapon
 IS threat to use the water weapon was the key
accelerant that precipitated U.S. direct
involvement
 Use of the water weapon has been a critical
enabler and perpetuator of the IS war campaign
 Use of the water weapon is problematic from a
legal and theological standpoint.
 Successful denial of IS’s ability to use the water
weapon may be the decisive element in
determining whether they can be defeated.
Recommendations for U.S. Engagement
 Defense: First, do no harm. Prevent military
ecological damage to water bodies and installations.
Apply understanding of IS’s use of the water weapon
to Counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies.
 Development: Incorporate restoration of water
infrastructure as high priority in post-conflict
stabilization programs
 Diplomacy: Support creation of a river commission
and application and enforcement of international laws
ENMOD and the Geneva Convention Additional
Protocol II.
QUESTIONS?
mdking@gwu
 Drought map:
 Erian, W., Katlan, B. & Babah, O. Drought vulnerability in the Arab region:
Special case study: Syria, The United Nations Office for Disaster and
Risk Reduction
 ISIS map:
 'Syria: Mapping the conflict - BBC News ', BBC News, 10 July 2015.
<http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-22798391>, (accessed on
05 August 2015).