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Consortium for Ocean Leadership Task Force Climate Change Update and Science & Technology Needs Rear Admiral Dave Titley, Ph.D. Oceanographer of the Navy / Director Task Force Climate Change October 15, 2009 This Presentation is Unclassified UNCLASSIFIED N84 Overview • Task Force Climate Change • Navy Arctic Roadmap • What We Know • Adapting to Climate Change • Science & Technology Needs • Way Ahead UNCLASSIFIED N84 Task Force Climate Change • Established by Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) – To identify Navy action regarding climate change – Near-term focus: Arctic • Charter – Develop a science-based timeline for Navy action – Recommend Navy policy, strategy, investment, & outreach • Service, interagency, & scientific community support – Navy & Coast Guard Staffs, Office of Naval Research, Arctic Submarine Lab – NOAA, NASA, Departments of State, Commerce, Homeland Security – National Academies, leading climate science universities (APL-UW, WHOI), Naval War College, National Defense University, Naval Postgraduate School Coordinate & communicate Navy action regarding the Arctic & climate change UNCLASSIFIED N84 Task Force Climate Change Focus Areas TFCC Objectives U.S. Navy Photo Comms & Outreach Operations & Training Investments Policy, Strategy, Plans 5 Focus Areas Readiness & Capability Assessment & Prediction Environmental assessment & prediction underpin all TFCC focus areas UNCLASSIFIED N84 Navy Arctic Roadmap Key Themes UNCLOS advocacy Improved understanding Regarding the current & predicted environment Informed investments Providing a governance framework that supports security & stability Providing the right capability at the right time & cost Increased experience Through exercises & operations Cooperative partnerships With interagency and international stakeholders U.S. Navy Photo Navy recognized as a valued joint, interagency, & international partner in the Arctic UNCLASSIFIED N84 What We Know • Warming Earth is causing: – Sea level rise – Changing ocean chemistry, precipitation patterns, hydrological & ecological systems – Decreasing snow & ice extent • Climate change projections are uncertain & variable – Global temperature & precipitation patterns well-modeled to 100 yrs – Ice, tropical storm, sea-level rise, & ocean acidity NOT well-modeled • Climate change will impact the Navy – Infrastructure, missions, operating areas IPCC projections are insufficient for Navy force structure & installation investment decisions over the next 30-50 years UNCLASSIFIED N84 Adapting to Climate Change Battlespace On Demand Linking Forecasts to Decisions Decision Superiority: Making better decisions faster than the adversary Naval Oceanography’s operational concept provides framework for developing climate change adaptation strategies UNCLASSIFIED N84 Science & Technology Needs Increase Model Resolution – Adaptive, higher-density observation net – Regional scale spatial resolution – Decadal scale temporal resolution Address Uncertainties – Quantify uncertainty & confidence levels – Provide probability distribution functions in output – Represent variability across multiple temporal & spatial scales – Reduce uncertainty in ice, sea level rise, water systems/precipitation, & tropical storms Improve Model Physics – – – – Ice sheet dynamics & contribution to sea level rise Impact of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems Feedback processes & geo-engineering Factors causing abrupt climate change Recommend National Academies climate modeling study address these needs UNCLASSIFIED N84 National Climate Consortium Current capabilities (IPCC) are lacking • • Science & Technology needs are national, not TFCC, needs Identified by the National Academy of Science and the Office of Science & Technology Policy Today’s National efforts are fractured & stove-piped • • Multiple agencies working on the same problem Observation systems, climate models, & decision support A way ahead • • • • Synchronize efforts across the US agencies Leverage prior investments of each Capitalize on the strengths of individual organizations Unify climate & operational prediction capabilities when possible To develop & implement a National climate observation & modeling strategy UNCLASSIFIED N84