Download N84 - Consortium for Ocean Leadership

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the work of artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts
no text concepts found
Transcript
Consortium for Ocean Leadership
Task Force Climate Change Update and
Science & Technology Needs
Rear Admiral Dave Titley, Ph.D.
Oceanographer of the Navy / Director Task Force Climate Change
October 15, 2009
This Presentation is Unclassified
UNCLASSIFIED
N84
Overview
• Task Force Climate Change
• Navy Arctic Roadmap
• What We Know
• Adapting to Climate Change
• Science & Technology Needs
• Way Ahead
UNCLASSIFIED
N84
Task Force Climate Change
• Established by Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
– To identify Navy action regarding climate change
– Near-term focus: Arctic
• Charter
– Develop a science-based timeline for Navy action
– Recommend Navy policy, strategy, investment, & outreach
• Service, interagency, & scientific community support
– Navy & Coast Guard Staffs, Office of Naval Research, Arctic Submarine Lab
– NOAA, NASA, Departments of State, Commerce, Homeland Security
– National Academies, leading climate science universities (APL-UW, WHOI),
Naval War College, National Defense University, Naval Postgraduate School
Coordinate & communicate Navy action regarding the Arctic & climate change
UNCLASSIFIED
N84
Task Force Climate Change
Focus Areas
TFCC
Objectives
U.S. Navy Photo
Comms & Outreach
Operations & Training
Investments
Policy, Strategy, Plans
5 Focus Areas
Readiness & Capability
Assessment & Prediction
Environmental assessment & prediction underpin all TFCC focus areas
UNCLASSIFIED
N84
Navy Arctic Roadmap
Key Themes
UNCLOS advocacy
Improved understanding
Regarding the current &
predicted environment
Informed investments
Providing a governance
framework that supports
security & stability
Providing the right capability
at the right time & cost
Increased experience
Through exercises & operations
Cooperative partnerships
With interagency and
international stakeholders
U.S. Navy Photo
Navy recognized as a valued joint, interagency, & international partner in the Arctic
UNCLASSIFIED
N84
What We Know
• Warming Earth is causing:
– Sea level rise
– Changing ocean chemistry, precipitation patterns,
hydrological & ecological systems
– Decreasing snow & ice extent
• Climate change projections are uncertain & variable
– Global temperature & precipitation patterns
well-modeled to 100 yrs
– Ice, tropical storm, sea-level rise, &
ocean acidity NOT well-modeled
• Climate change will impact the Navy
– Infrastructure, missions, operating areas
IPCC projections are insufficient for Navy force structure &
installation investment decisions over the next 30-50 years
UNCLASSIFIED
N84
Adapting to Climate Change
Battlespace On Demand
Linking Forecasts to Decisions
Decision Superiority: Making better decisions faster than the adversary
Naval Oceanography’s operational concept provides framework for developing
climate change adaptation strategies
UNCLASSIFIED
N84
Science & Technology Needs
Increase
Model Resolution
– Adaptive, higher-density observation net
– Regional scale spatial resolution
– Decadal scale temporal resolution
Address
Uncertainties
– Quantify uncertainty & confidence levels
– Provide probability distribution functions in output
– Represent variability across multiple temporal &
spatial scales
– Reduce uncertainty in ice, sea level rise,
water systems/precipitation, & tropical storms
Improve
Model Physics
–
–
–
–
Ice sheet dynamics & contribution to sea level rise
Impact of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems
Feedback processes & geo-engineering
Factors causing abrupt climate change
Recommend National Academies climate modeling study address these needs
UNCLASSIFIED
N84
National Climate Consortium
Current capabilities (IPCC) are lacking
•
•
Science & Technology needs are national, not TFCC, needs
Identified by the National Academy of Science and the
Office of Science & Technology Policy
Today’s National efforts are fractured & stove-piped
•
•
Multiple agencies working on the same problem
Observation systems, climate models, & decision support
A way ahead
•
•
•
•
Synchronize efforts across the US agencies
Leverage prior investments of each
Capitalize on the strengths of individual organizations
Unify climate & operational prediction capabilities when possible
To develop & implement a National climate observation & modeling strategy
UNCLASSIFIED
N84