Download BDI 7th FYP Development Strategy November 06, 2015

Draft 7th Plan of Government of
Bangladesh: Highlights
Paper presented to the Third BDI Conference,
University of Berkeley, California, November 06
Sadiq Ahmed
Vice Chairman Policy Research Institute of
Bangladesh
1
Table of Contents
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•
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Overview
Progress under the Sixth Plan
Core Elements of the 7th Plan Strategy
Strategy for Growth
Macroeconomic Framework
Infrastructure Development Strategy
Human Development Strategy
Strategy for Poverty Reduction, Gender Empowerment, Social Inclusion
and Social Protection
• Strategy for Sustainable Development
• Governance and Institutions
• Monitoring and Evaluation: Development Results Framework
2
A. Overview
•The Government’s Vision 2021 defines several economic
and social outcomes for Bangladesh to achieve by 2021. To
convert this Vision into long-term development targets, a
Perspective Plan 2010-2021 was prepared.
•Vision 2021 and the associated Perspective Plan 20102021were to be achieved through the implementation of two
five-year plans, the Sixth Five Year Plan (2011-15) and the
Seventh Five Year Plan (2016-2020).
•The 7th FYP seeks to build on the progress achieved under
the 6th Plan to complete the remaining agenda of achieving
the social and economic outcomes of the Vision 2021 and the
Perspective Plan.
3
B. Review of Progress under the 6th FYP: growth
performance
•The 6th FYP set a target of 7.3% average GDP growth climaxing at 8% in
the end year FY2015. Considerable progress achieved. Actual growth 6.3%
average.
• Growth shortfall similar to previous plans but gap was less (Table 1.1)
•In addition to political difficulties, the main contributing factors were the
shortfall in the investment rate, both public and private .
Table 1: Average Growth Performance During Various Plan Periods
Plan
Periods (FY)
•
First Plan
Second Plan
Third Plan
Fourth Plan
Fifth Plan
Sixth Plan
1973-1978
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1997-2002
2011-2015
Average GDP Growth
Ratio
of
Rate
actual to plan
Plan (%)
Actual
(%)
(%)
5.5
4.0
73
5.4
3.8
70
5.4
3.8
70
5.0
4.2
84
7.1
5.1
72
7.3
6.3
86
Per Capita
GDP growth
(%)
1.3
1.5
1.6
2.4
3.5
4.9
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and Sixth Plan; *End of period
4
Sixth Plan Progress – Per capita GDP now exceeds the threshold of
lower middle income defined by World Bank
Figure: US Dollar Per Capita GDP Over Various Plan Periods
1255
(end of period)
1400
1200
1000
780
800
600
360
400
200
116
150
FY78
FY85
221
247
FY90
FY95
0
FY02
FY10
FY15
Source: Sixth Plan and BBS.
Figure : Actual Vs Target GDP Growth during Sixth Plan (%)
Actual
9
8
7
6.46 6.7
6.52
Target
6.9
6.01
8
7.6
7.2
6.12
6.5
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
FY 11
FY 12
FY 13
Source: BBS.
FY 14
FY15
5
Sixth Plan Progress – Sound Macroeconomic Management
•Growth supported by a stable and prudent macroeconomic framework
The inflation rate fell to 6.5 percent in FY2015. Although this is still higher than the 6 percent target in the
Sixth Plan, the midway correction is an important indicator of the flexible policy management in Bangladesh.
. The budget deficit has been constantly below 5% of GDP and total debt to GDP ratio has been falling. This is
a very strong fiscal performance from the point of view of macroeconomic stability.
The current account has been in surplus, the reserve level has accumulated at a very fast pace and external
debt to GDP ratio has been falling.
Remittance inflows have also been very strong.
Bangladesh Bank has progressively liberalized the foreign exchange regime selectively opening up private
foreign borrowing for investment.
Table: Sixth Plan Macroeconomic Performance
Source: Sixth Plan and GED estimates.
6
6th Plan Progress: Structural Change and Economic Transformation
Progress in strengthening the economic transformation of Bangladesh from an agrarian
economy towards a more manufacturing and modern service economy.
--Considerable progress achieved. Manufacturing and services grew much faster than agriculture.
--Modernization of services sector underway
--However several areas of concern: little progress with agricultural diversification; excessive
dependence on RMG; sluggish small enterprises; and continued dominance of informal services
Significant progress in narrowing rural-urban divide reflected in: larger share of rural income
from non-agricultural activities; improved standards of rural living; sharp reduction in rural
dependency ratio; substantial improvements in rural human development, improved availability of
rural infrastructure, lower communication costs owing to ICT penetration
Table 1.2: Structural Change in the Economy during the Sixth Plan (% of GDP)
Structure of the Economy
Agriculture
Industry
--of which Manufacturing
Services
FY2010
18
26
17
FY2015
16
28
18
56
56
Source: BBS.
7
Sixth Plan Progress – Job Creation
•The estimated total number of estimated job creation (10.3 million) is very close to the plan target
(10.4) owing to good performance of manufacturing, services and overseas migration.
• This exceeds the addition to the labor force (9.2 million), thereby lowering the rate of underemployment and/or open unemployment in agriculture.
•The growth of manufacturing employment has largely been on track.
•The agriculture sector was not able to reduce its total employment share as projected in the Plan.
Nevertheless, the total demand for labor in agriculture has exceeded the supply, as indicated by wage
data that shows that the agricultural labor market has tightened progressively with sharp increases in
the real wages of agricultural male and female workers.
Table 1.3: Estimated Job Creation in the Sixth Plan (million workers)
FY2010 (Base Year )
Domestic Employment
-Agriculture
-Manufacturing
-Other industry
-Services & Others
Total Domestic Employment
Additional Domestic Employment
Additional Manpower Exports
Additional Employment
Additional labor force
25.7
6.7
2.8
18.9
54.1
Source: GED Estimates.
FY2015
(Estimated)
25.2
9.6
4.3
23.1
62.2
8.1
2.2
10.3
9.2
FY 2015 (Adjusted Plan
Target)
24.5
10.0
4.4
24.4
63.3
9.2
1.2
10.4
9.2
8
Sixth Plan Progress – Progress with Poverty Reduction
•The incidences of poverty and extreme poverty is expected to have fallen
significantly. The incidence of poverty is projected to have fallen below 25 percent
and extreme poverty to around 12 percent.
•Major contributors were: growth in employment; rise in real agricultural wages;
expansion of micro credits; and rapid inflow of external remittances in rural areas.
Table: Sixth Plan Poverty Progress and Determinants
Performance Indicators
Poverty headcount rate UPL (%)
Baseline (2010)
Target 2015
Actual 2015
31.5
22.5
24.9
Poverty headcount rate LPL (%)
17.6
N.A.
12.3
Rate of growth of GDP
Expansion of domestic employment (million)
6.1
7.3
9.2
6.3
8.1
1.2
2.2
Expansion of foreign employment (million)
Employment share of manufacturing (%)
12.0
15.8
15.4
Rate of growth of agricultural GDP (%)
5.20
3.1
Growth of Real Wages in Agriculture (kg of rice) (%)
6
4.3
Real GDP growth
plus 0.4
14.3
Source: Sixth Five Year Plan; BBS.
9
Sixth Plan Progress with Human Development – Primary
and secondary education
•Further progress was made in both quantity and quality of primary and secondary education.
•Nevertheless, quality issues remain paramount.
•Expansion of tertiary education and eliminating gender parity in tertiary education remain important challenges
• Public spending on education remains a concern. At 2.3% of GDP, public spending on education is low by
international standards.
•Equity issues of education spending and efficiency of spending are also a challenge
Table: Sixth Plan Progress with Education
Indicators
Indicators of Participation
Indicators of Internal
Efficiency
Indicators of Quality
Indicators of Educational
Expenditure
Sub-indicators
a) Primary Gross Enrollment Rate
b) Primary Net Enrollment Rate
c) Secondary Gross Enrollment Rate
d) Secondary Net Enrollment Rate
a) Primary Repetition Rate
b) Primary Dropout Rate
c) Primary Survival Rate
d) Primary Student Absenteeism
a) Primary Student Teacher Ratio
b) Secondary Student Teacher Ratio
a) Public expenditure on education as % of total expenditure
b) Public expenditure on education as % of GDP
2010 (unless stated
otherwise)
107.7%
94.8%
47.34%
43%
12.6%
39.8%
67.3%
16%
1:48 (2009)
1:35 (2009)
2014 (unless stated otherwise)
13.8% (2009)
2% (2009)
12.3% (2015)
2.3% (2015)
108.4%
97.7%
55.84%
50.21%
6.4%
20.9%
81%
13.3%
1:42 (2013)
1:37 (2013)
10
Sixth Plan Progress – Gender empowerment, Social
Inclusion and Social Protection
• Along with elimination of gender gender disparity in primary and secondary education, solid progress has been
made in reducing disparity at the tertiary level.
•Bangladesh has also advanced well in providing the regulatory framework for protection of women’s rights and
privileges. Political empowerment is exemplary. However, further progress needed on the economic front.
Implementation of laws a challenge.
•Regarding social inclusion, the Sixth Plan’s strategy and programs have been broadly on track. Particular
progress has been made in the area of child protection and in addressing special needs of CHT.
•In social protection, the Government has continued to implement ongoing programs. New NSSS adopted.
•Issues include weak implementation of programs and inadequate funding. Implementation of NSSS remains.
Table: Progress with Gender Empowerment
Objective
Performance Indicators
Women and men
should enjoy equal
social, political and
economic opportunities
Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education
Seats held by women in national parliament
Ratio of literate females to males (percent of ages 2024)
Share of women employed in the non- agricultural
sector
Baseline
FY(2010)
Target FY 2015
Actual FY2015
32%
60%
50%
18.6%
33%
20%
85%
100%
86%
20%
50%
32%
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Sixth Plan Progress – Environment and Disaster Management
•Environment
Pro-active pursuit of international programs; success in developing national level scientific
expertise and government level actions on the environmental sustainability issues; and
continued to push ahead with its policies and programs.
Future challenges include: The M&E effort is weak ; a more focused and results-oriented
strategy combining elements of policies, regulations, incentives, investment and capacity
building are needed. An integrated approach to climate proofing of Bangladesh development
strategy is the way to move forward.
•Disaster Management
The good progress with disaster management programs continued. The ability to sharply
reduce the loss of lives and injuries based on a combination of early warning system,
construction and availability of shelters and timely provision of relief and support measures
are indicative of the good progress here.
Challenges include: the management of the river system and the climate change agenda.
Long-term planning and substantial public investment will be necessary. The formulation of
the Bangladesh Delta Plan-2100 and its timely implementation during the Seventh Plan will
be a major long-term policy and institutional initiative for building resilience and reducing
the effects of disaster.
12
Sixth Plan Progress: Governance and Institutions
• The Plan emphasized strengthening of judiciary, law enforcing agencies,
democratic institutions, economic policy making institutions, decentralization
and public administration. Progress has been made in a number of areas but
there are substantial challenges.
• The Sixth Plan’s culture of introducing results-based monitoring and evaluation
is itself a major step forward in instituting better governance.
• Progress made in areas relating to e-governance, the Right to Information (RTI),
elected local governments, and the medium-term budgetary framework
(MTBF).
• Nevertheless, progress in terms of the governance indicators of the revised RF
shows mixed results. The strengthening of the judicial process to achieve a
much faster disposal of civil and criminal cases requires particular attention.
• The priorities for the future include: strengthening of the democratic
governance; strengthening of local governance; strengthening of civil service;
reforming public banks, strengthening tax administration and strengthening
ACC
13
C. 7th Plan Development Strategy
• The 7th Plan strategy centers around four themes:
• Break out of the mould of 6% growth and raise the
annual growth rate to 7%+.
• Growth will be inclusive, pro-poor, and environmentally
sustainable.
• By the end of the 7th FYP, extreme poverty will be
substantially lowered.
• All the additional labour force will be gainfully
employed, including much of the under-employed.
14
D. 7th Plan Strategy – GDP Growth Targets
•The Plan aims at raising the GDP growth rate from 6.5% in FY2015 to 8.0% by
FY2020.
•This suggests an average growth rate of 7.4%, which is around one percentage point
higher than what was achieved during the Sixth Plan.
Figure: 7th Plan GDP Growth Path
8.5
8.0
8.0
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
6.5
6.0
6.1
FY13
FY14
5.6
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
15
7th Plan Strategy: Sectoral Composition of Growth
•The principal driver of growth acceleration will be the manufacturing sector, rising progressively to
12.6% annual growth in 2020.
•Agricultural growth is expected to rise only moderately to 3.5% in 2020 based on diversification.
• Modernization of services will continue with focus on enabling environment and safety standards.
•As a result, further progress with structural transformation.
Table: Growth Composition and Structural Change
Growth rates (%)
Sectors
Agriculture
o/w Crops
Industry
o/w Mfg
Services
GDP
Agriculture
o/w Crops
Industry
o/w Mfg
Services
Total
FY15
3.0
1.3
9.6
10.3
5.8
6.5
FY15
15.6
7.5
28.0
17.8
56.4
100
FY16
3.2
1.4
10.2
10.5
6.3
7
FY16
15.1
7.6
28.9
18.4
56.0
100
FY17
3.3
1.4
10.5
11.0
6.4
7.2
FY18
3.3
1.4
10.8
11.3
6.5
7.4
Shares in GDP (%)
FY17
FY18
14.5
14.0
7.3
6.9
29.8
30.8
19.1
19.8
55.7
55.2
100
100
Source: 7th Plan Projections
FY19
3.4
1.4
11.2
12.0
6.6
7.6
FY19
13.4
6.5
31.8
20.6
54.8
100
FY20
3.5
1.4
11.9
12.6
6.7
8
FY20
12.9
6.1
33.0
21.5
54.1
100
16
7th Plan Strategy: Drivers of Growth and Employment
• As in the past, capital accumulation, labor force growth and their productivity will remain key growth
drivers. Given 6th Plan shortfalls in investment, raising the rate of investment is the highest priority.
Emphasis will also be placed to strengthen the contribution of labor through skills development
•Another growth driver is continued macroeconomic stability.
• Growth acceleration will be supported by a high-performing export-oriented manufacturing sector
diversified beyond readymade garment exports based on the elimination of the anti-export bias of the
policy regime.
• Higher growth combined with improved structure of production and strengthening of agricultural
productivity and diversification will provide the basis for substantial new job creation in higher
productivity activities (manufacturing and services). Reliance on export of labor services will continue.
Table: 7th Plan Employment Strategy
FY2016
7.0
FY2017
7.2
FY2018
7.4
FY2019
7.6
FY2020
8.0
Employment generation (0.45*g)
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
Migrant work
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Additional employment (million)
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
4.0
Additional Labor force (million)
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
Excess employment (million)
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
GDP growth (g)
17
7th Plan Growth Strategy: Special Factors
•High growth is premised on fast-paced manufacturing growth based on labor-intensive
exports that is globally competitive and compliant with WTO multilateral trading regime
and standards emphasized in importing countries.
•The 7th Plan seeks to boost development of the services sector that provides a cushion for
labor absorption as agricultural employment shrinks. A particular emphasis is on continued
modernization of services including export of non-factor services (shipping, aviations,
tourism and ICT)
•Rapid urbanization is an essential part of the underlying growth process. Given the multidimensional nature of urbanization challenges, the 7th Plan strategy focuses on improving
urban governance through better transparency and accountability of institutions,
decentralization, community participation, more efficient resource mobilization, and
involvement of the private sector in the development of the urban sector.
•The 7th FYP articulates a strategy to address problems of the lagging regions in order to
bridge disparities across regions. Additional resources will be earmarked for narrowing the
infrastructure gap, promoting manufacturing opportunities in lagging districts, expanding
agriculture and rural economic activities, and creating opportunities for international
migration.
18
E. 7th Plan Macroeconomic Framework
•Higher growth balanced with efforts to reduce inflation to 5.5% by FY20 and maintain the strong BOP
position through continued prudent monetary and fiscal management and proper exchange rate policy.
•The key challenge is to increase the rate of investment from 26.9% of GDP in FY15 to 34.4% in FY20.
•Both public and private investment will need to grow. Given limited public resources, efficiency of the
public sector investment plan will be important for maximizing benefits.
•Out of the planned 7.5% of GDP increase in gross investment, about one-fourth would need to come in
the form of FDI, since the growth in national savings alone will not be sufficient to meet the required
investment level.
•Increased levels of FDI would also be desirable from the point of view of improved management, new
technology, and greater market access for Bangladeshi exports.
Table: Macroeconomic Scenario of the Seventh Five Year Plan
Macro Indicator
FY14
(Actual)
FY15
(estimated)
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
Private investment (as % of GDP)
6.1
7.4
27.2
22.0
6.5
6.4
27.6
22.1
7
6.2
30.1
23.7
7.2
6
31.0
23.9
7.4
5.8
31.8
24.4
7.6
5.7
32.7
25.1
8
5.5
34.4
26.6
Public Investment (as % of GDP)
5.2
5.6
6.4
7.1
7.4
7.6
7.8
National Savings (as % of GDP)
29.1
27.1
29.1
29.7
30.2
30.7
32.1
Consumption (as% of GDP)
78.3
79.9
77.5
76.7
75.9
75.1
73.5
Growth: Real GDP (%)
CPI Inflation (%)
Gross Domestic Investment (as % of GDP)
19
7th Plan Macroeconomic Strategy: Public Investment Financing
•Financing of higher public investment rate will require increased revenue mobilization
through reform and modernization of tax policy and tax administration.
•This will also require additional foreign borrowing and better use of the aid pipeline,
consistent with prudent fiscal policy and public debt management
Growth Rate (%)
Growth in NBR Tax Revenue
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Seventh Plan Period
Average Growth rate- 23.9%
Sixth Plan Period Average
Growth rate- 17.9%
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
Table : Fiscal Deficit and Financing under Seventh Five Year Plan
As % of GDP
Fiscal Deficit (including Grants)
Financing
Domestic Borrowing
-Bank
-Non-Bank
External Borrowing (net)
FY14
FY15
Actual
Revenue Budget
-4.7
4.7
3.6
2.2
1.4
1.1
-3.1
3.1
2.8
1.4
1.5
0.3
FY16
-4.7
4.7
3.3
2.1
1.2
1.4
FY17
-4.6
4.6
3.4
2.2
1.2
1.2
FY18
7FYP Period
-4.7
4.7
3.5
2.3
1.2
1.2
FY19
FY20
-4.7
4.7
3.6
2.4
1.2
1.1
-4.7
4.7
3.7
2.5
1.2
1.0
20
7th Plan Macroeconomic Strategy: Public Spending Priorities
•Substantial growth in government spending; balance between current and capital spending. Need to
increase civil service wage increase and rising interest cost on debt. Higher O&M spending. Higher social
protection spending.
•Investment spending priority to infrastructure and rural development. Thrust on development expenditure to
alleviate infrastructure constraints by fast tracking nationally important projects.
•In addition major initiatives will be taken to broaden and accelerate the implementation of other major
highways and bridges, power sector projects, and providing access to serviced land to foreign and domestic
investors in the context of the Special Economic Zones (SEZ) initiative.
Figure: 7th Plan Public Spending Priorities
25.0
Capital Investment
As % of GDP
20.0
15.0
10.0
6.0
6.3
6.7
7.0
7.4
5.5
4.3
4.6
4.8
5.1
5.3
5.5
General Service etc
5.2
4.2
5.0 2.2
1.7
1.9
0.0
FY14
Education
Figure : Key Drivers of Expenditure Growth: Projection FY16-FY20
2.1
1.6
2.3
1.8
2.5
1.9
3.9
3.6
FY15*
FY16
2.8
2.2
2.3
3.0
3.2
2.6
2.1
2.7
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
2.3
1.8
Social Protection
(Excluding Govt.
Pension)
Others
*= Estimated
21
F. 7th Plan Strategy for Infrastructure Development - Power
•Total generation during the 7th Plan will increase by 12,584 MW, which is substantially larger than the target that
was in the Sixth Plan.
• Some 61% (7682 MW) will be provided by the public sector and 39% (4902) MW by the private sector.
•Commensurate expansion plans for Transmission and Distribution and Rural Electrification.
•Continue power trade with India and expand to neighbors (Bhutan, Nepal)
•Improve sector performance: reduce T&D losses; improve financing; improve sector management.
Calendar
Year
Gas
Gas/LNG
Duel Fuel
HFO
Coal
Import
Renewable
Total
2015-2016
(MW)
973
2016-2017
(MW)
2401
2017-2018
(MW)
657
2018-2019
(MW)
2019-2020
(MW)
1750
75
55
100
68
1271
FY
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total
395
511
512
30
3337
Public
(MW)
937
2599
1076
1320
1750
7682
Sector
274
500
3036
1247
1943
3036
2997
Private
(MW)
334
738
867
1716
1247
4902
Total
(MW)
4031
1750
982
566
4557
600
98
12584
Sector
Total (MW)
1271
3337
1943
3036
2997
12584
22
7th Plan Strategy for Infrastructure Development – Primary Energy
•The strategy during the 7th Plan will be to meet the shortfall in domestic gas with
coal and LNG. Further increases are planned for imported power and some small
increments are expected from renewable energy (solar and wind power).
•Adequacy of financing and infrastructure support for coal and LNG are major
issues
Figure: 7th Plan Primary Energy Strategy
120
100
others
80
Cross
Border
Fuel oil
60
40
Coal
20
Gas
0
FY2010
FY2015 : Power FY2020
FY2021
Figure
Generation Plan
by Fuel (%) FY2030
23
7th Plan Strategy for Infrastructure Development – Transport
•Timely completion of all ongoing roads and bridges projects especially related to intercity highways.
•Fast track a number transformational infrastructure investment, including the Padma
Bridge, Deep Sea Port Project, MRT-6 project, LNG terminal project and the Payra Port
Project.
•Promote regional connectivity and support for the Trans-Asian Highway Project
•Expand sea port capacity constraints owing to trade and energy production needs.
•Expand airport capacity to handle growing international and domestic air traffic.
•Address the major institutional constraints that have hampered implementation of
infrastructure projects in the Sixth Plan.
•Reform the PPP strategy to boost its role.
•Address the urban transportation challenge of increasing traffic congestion.
•Strengthen inter-modal transport with greater emphasis on rail and inland waterways
to easy overload on road transport and ease the port-to-factory gate gridlock.
•Addressing the broader governance and institutional challenges
24
G. 7th Plan Strategy for Human Development - Education
•The 7th FYP will build on the progress made in the previous plan while addressing the constraints
identified, especially on education quality and equity.
•The employment challenge is another major concern, since a skilled workforce is a prerequisite for the
structural changes in production envisaged during the 7th FYP.
• Accordingly, greater emphasis will be placed on quality at all levels and expansion on secondary,
higher, vocational and technical education. The importance of a well-rounded scientific education is
also highlighted. Adoption of ICT in education is another priority.
•To promote inclusive development, special attention will be given to the disadvantaged groups,
women, children and persons with disabilities.
•Increase public spending on education and encourage greater private provision including on training.
•Make training relevant to needs of workplace.
Table: 7th Plan Core Education Targets
Indicator
FY2015
FY2020
Net Enrolment at Primary Level (%)
Net Enrolment at Secondary Level (%)
Net Enrolment at Tertiary Level (%)
Percentage of cohort reaching grade 5 (%)
97.3
57
12
80.5
100
100
20
100
Literacy Rate
56.8
100
25
7th Plan Strategy for Human Development - Health
The health sector strategy emphasizes:
Further reduction in TFR in order to reduce the population growth rate to 1% p.a.
Emphasis on child immunization and under-5 mortality reduction .
Improve maternal healthcare and lower maternal mortality.
 Improve child nutrition standards to lower the incidence of stunting and wasting
Improve health financing through adoption of health insurance
Address equity issues in healthcare through low-cost health services.
Table: 7th Plan Major Health Targets
PHN Indicators
FY2015
FY2020
Total Fertility Rate
2.11
2.0
62
75
46.4
37
Immunization, measles (% children under 12 months)
84
100
Population Growth Rate (% per annum)
1.3
1
Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000 live births)
170
105
Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total staff)
42.1
65
Increase Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (%)
Under 5 Mortality Rate (per 1000)
26
H. 7th Plan Poverty Reduction Strategy
•Continue the strategy that allowed solid progress with poverty reduction of
the past 15 years with eventual elimination of extreme poverty.
•Growth acceleration and job creation will be combined with targeted
programs and social protection to lower poverty.
•During the 7th Plan there will be renewed emphasis on income distribution.
•Fiscal policy will be substantially strengthened to finance human
development and social protection programs for the poor based on a
progressive and inclusive income tax strategy.
Table: 7th Plan Poverty and Inequality Targets
Indicators
FY2010
FY2015
FY2020
Incidence of Poverty
31.5
24.9
18.9
Incidence of Extreme Poverty
17.6
12.6
8.6
Consumption inequality (gini coefficient)
0.32
0.32
0.30
Income inequality (gini coefficient)
0.45
0.45
0.43
27
7th Plan Gender Strategy
The framework for women’s empowerment and gender equality comprises of 4 areas of strategic
objectives and associated policies.
• Improve women’s human capabilities: This deals with women’s and girls’ access to health care,
life expectancy, nutrition, reproductive health, education, information, training, and other services
that enables women to achieve better health and educational outcomes. This also includes women’s
freedom from violence and coercion.
•Increase women’s economic benefits: This relates to women’s access to assets, resources,
services, skills, property, employment, income, information, technology, financial services, and
other economic opportunities including community resources (land, water, forest etc).
•Enhance women’s voice and agency: This pertains to women’s role as decision makers in public
and private spheres including politics and promotion of their leadership is considered here. Changed
attitudes on women’s and girls’ rights, women’s enhanced knowledge of their rights and increasing
their bargaining power are reflected on.
•Create an enabling environment for women’s advancement: The socio-political environment,
legal and policy support, and congenial social norms are the key in this area. Oversight,
enforcement of laws, regular collection of sex-disaggregated data, gender and social analysis skills
including the capacity to develop, implement, and monitor gender strategies, understanding of
gender issues in the sector are the key areas.
28
7th Plan Social Protection Strategy
•Resource constraints and competing priorities have caused a
reduction in spending on social protection as a share of GDP in the
recent years.
•The efficiency of spending is also a matter of concern.
•The Government has adopted a new comprehensive National Social
Security Strategy (NSSS). The main challenge for the Seventh Plan
will be the successful implementation of the NSSS.
•The successful implementation of the NSSS will provide a strong
basis for Bangladesh to extend proper social protection to its poor and
vulnerable population.
•Additionally, effort will be made to increase public spending on
social protection from 1.7% of GDP in FY2015 to 2.6% of GDP by
FY2020.
29
7th Plan Strategy for Social Inclusion
•Strategy for the Children: Irrespective of gender and socio-economic background, all
children should be ensured access to essential services, including social security, health
care, nutrition and education, and enjoy protection from all forms of violence, abuse and
exploitation, to be able to reach their full potential and realize their rights.
•Strategy for Ethnic Population:. The ethnic communities of the CHT will be ensured
access to education, health care, food and nutrition, employment, and overseas
employment, and protection of rights to land and other resources.
•Strategy for Dalits and Extreme Poor Groups: Erase the discrimination and
exploitation faced by dalit communities and integrate them as full citizens of the
country.
•Strategy for Sexual Minority Groups: The vision is a society where sexual minority
groups can live with respect and dignity and enjoy tolerance and social justice. This
includes an HIV/AIDS free society with zero new infections, zero discrimination and
zero deaths.
•Strategy for the Disabled: The Government will promote and protect rights of persons
with disabilities to facilitate their full participation in mainstream social, political and
cultural lives.
30
I. 7th Plan Sustainable Development Strategy – Environment and
Climate Change
•Integrate environment and climate change issues in the 7th Plan
growth and poverty reduction strategies.
•Focus on sustainable use of water, land and forestry resources.
Delta Plan is a key initiative in this regard.
•Energy policy to emphasize energy conservation and use of
clean fuel.
•Emphasis on management of water and air pollution through
regulatory and fiscal policies
•Better integrate environmental issues in project selection
•Strengthen core environment institutions ( DOE, Land Ministry,
Forestry Ministry, Water Ministry and LGRD)
31
7th Plan Sustainable Development Strategy – Disaster Management
The overall objective of disaster management (DM) is to build resilience of the
poor and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to various natural and man-made
disasters.
•Upgrade the disaster management regulative framework.
•Mainstream risk reduction and climate change adaptation principles in development
programs, plans and policies.
•Strengthen community and household level capacity to withstand the disastrous situation
•Establishment of DM fund, the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC)
•Strengthen local capacity for disaster response
• Institute ICT based Multi-hazard EWS at community level
•Establish Go- NGO and private sector coordination for disaster risk reduction
•Reduce vulnerability of the at risk communities through effective, targeted social safety nets
•Establish & strengthen the regional networks
•Strengthen the use of space based technology
•Develop a monitoring and evaluation system to monitor disaster management performance
32
J. 7th Plan Governance and Institutions
The Government acknowledges that governance deficits are observed across all
walks of public life and understands that addressing governance challenges in the
long-run necessitates a strong focus on institutions.
•Justice and Rule of Law: Improve judicial effectiveness and rule of law .
•Building Government Administrative Capacity: Improving Government’s
administrative capacity is fundamental for enhancing Government’s effectiveness.
•Improving Economic Governance: Improve the state of governance in the
banking sector and the capital market.
•Strengthening Local Government
•Making parliamentary process effective
•Representation, Participation and Accountability
•Enhancing Integrity & Controlling Corruption
•Strengthening the Election Commission (EC)
•Promoting E-governance
33
K. 7th Plan Monitoring and Evaluation: Development Results
Framework (DRF)
Table : 7th Five Year Plan Targets in Context
A.
1
2
3
4
5
6
B.
7
8
9
10
12
13
C.
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
D.
23
24
25
Targets
Production, Income Generation and Poverty
Real GDP Growth (%)
Head Count Poverty (%)
Reduction of extreme poverty (%)
Share of manufacturing in GDP
Share of manufacturing employment (%)
Gross National income per capita (in US $)
Sector Development
Growth in agriculture (%)
Growth in industry (%)
Growth in services (%)
Rice production (millions MT)
Exports (US$ billions)
Trade-GDP ratio (%)
Macroeconomic Development
Total Revenue (% of GDP)
NBR Tax Revenue (% of GDP)
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
Remittances ($ billions)
Total Government Spending (% of GDP)
National Savings (% of GDP)
Gross Domestic Investment (% of GDP)
FDI ($ billions)
CPI Inflation (average)
Urban Development
% of urban population with access improved water source
Coverage of drainage system in Dhaka (%)
Sanitation facilities for city dwellers (%)
Progress under 6th FYP 2015
7th FYP 2020
6.5
23.6
12.3
17.78
15.4
1314
8
16.6
8.0
25.1
20
2009
3.04
9.6
5.83
35.39
31.7
42.97
3.34†
10.9†
6.49†
36.81
55.1
50
10.7
8.8
4.7
15.6
15.7
29.01
28.97
1.60
6.5
16.1
13.7
4.7
25.4
21.1
32
34.4
9.56
5.5
86
60
40
100
80
60
34
7th Plan DRF (contd.)
E.
Human Resource Development (Education, Health and Population)
26
Net Enrolment at Primary Level (%)
27
97.3
100
Net Enrolment at Secondary Level (%)
57
100
28
Net Enrolment at Tertiary Level (%)
12
20
29
Percentage of cohort reaching grade 5 (%)
80.5
100
30
Total Fertility Rate
2.11
2.0
31
Increase Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (%)
62
75
32
Under 5 Mortality Rate (per 1000)
46.4
37
33
Immunization, measles (% children under 12 months)
84
100
34
Population Growth Rate (% per annum)
1.3
1
35
Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000 live births)
170
105
36
Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total staff)
42.1
65
37
Literacy Rate
56.8
100
F.
Water and Sanitation
38
Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population)
57
100
39
% of rural population with access to improved water source
84
100
G.
Energy and Infrastructure
40
Electricity Generation (MW)
11,532
23000*
41
Electricity Coverage (%)
65
100
42.
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
348 KWH
600 KWH
43.
Transmission and Distribution Loss
13%
9%
35
7th Plan DRF (contd.)
H.
Gender Equality and Social Protection
44
Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education (%)
70
100
45
Ratio of literate females to males (percent of ages 20- 24)
86
100
46
Female enrolment in technical and vocational education (%)
27
40
47
Income Inequality (Gini coefficient)
0.45
0.45
48
Spending on Social Protection (% of GDP)
2.02
2.6
I.
Environmental Sustainability
49
Productive Forest Coverage (%) (70 % tree density)
13.14
20
50
Dry season water availability (% of total flow)
15
25
51
Average flood extent (% of total area)
30
25‡
52
Flood vulnerable people (in millions)
88
60‡
53
Cyclone damage extent (% of total area)
10
4‡
54
Water logging extent (% of total coastal area)
2.5
0.5‡
J.
ICT Development
55
Research and Development Spending/GDP (%)
56
Increase teledensity (%)
78
100
57
Expansion of Broad Band Coverage (%)
30
35
58
Earnings from ICT, travel and tourism ($ billions)
1.5
6
1
36