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Draft 7th Plan of Government of Bangladesh: Highlights Paper presented to the Third BDI Conference, University of Berkeley, California, November 06 Sadiq Ahmed Vice Chairman Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh 1 Table of Contents • • • • • • • • Overview Progress under the Sixth Plan Core Elements of the 7th Plan Strategy Strategy for Growth Macroeconomic Framework Infrastructure Development Strategy Human Development Strategy Strategy for Poverty Reduction, Gender Empowerment, Social Inclusion and Social Protection • Strategy for Sustainable Development • Governance and Institutions • Monitoring and Evaluation: Development Results Framework 2 A. Overview •The Government’s Vision 2021 defines several economic and social outcomes for Bangladesh to achieve by 2021. To convert this Vision into long-term development targets, a Perspective Plan 2010-2021 was prepared. •Vision 2021 and the associated Perspective Plan 20102021were to be achieved through the implementation of two five-year plans, the Sixth Five Year Plan (2011-15) and the Seventh Five Year Plan (2016-2020). •The 7th FYP seeks to build on the progress achieved under the 6th Plan to complete the remaining agenda of achieving the social and economic outcomes of the Vision 2021 and the Perspective Plan. 3 B. Review of Progress under the 6th FYP: growth performance •The 6th FYP set a target of 7.3% average GDP growth climaxing at 8% in the end year FY2015. Considerable progress achieved. Actual growth 6.3% average. • Growth shortfall similar to previous plans but gap was less (Table 1.1) •In addition to political difficulties, the main contributing factors were the shortfall in the investment rate, both public and private . Table 1: Average Growth Performance During Various Plan Periods Plan Periods (FY) • First Plan Second Plan Third Plan Fourth Plan Fifth Plan Sixth Plan 1973-1978 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1997-2002 2011-2015 Average GDP Growth Ratio of Rate actual to plan Plan (%) Actual (%) (%) 5.5 4.0 73 5.4 3.8 70 5.4 3.8 70 5.0 4.2 84 7.1 5.1 72 7.3 6.3 86 Per Capita GDP growth (%) 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.4 3.5 4.9 Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and Sixth Plan; *End of period 4 Sixth Plan Progress – Per capita GDP now exceeds the threshold of lower middle income defined by World Bank Figure: US Dollar Per Capita GDP Over Various Plan Periods 1255 (end of period) 1400 1200 1000 780 800 600 360 400 200 116 150 FY78 FY85 221 247 FY90 FY95 0 FY02 FY10 FY15 Source: Sixth Plan and BBS. Figure : Actual Vs Target GDP Growth during Sixth Plan (%) Actual 9 8 7 6.46 6.7 6.52 Target 6.9 6.01 8 7.6 7.2 6.12 6.5 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 Source: BBS. FY 14 FY15 5 Sixth Plan Progress – Sound Macroeconomic Management •Growth supported by a stable and prudent macroeconomic framework The inflation rate fell to 6.5 percent in FY2015. Although this is still higher than the 6 percent target in the Sixth Plan, the midway correction is an important indicator of the flexible policy management in Bangladesh. . The budget deficit has been constantly below 5% of GDP and total debt to GDP ratio has been falling. This is a very strong fiscal performance from the point of view of macroeconomic stability. The current account has been in surplus, the reserve level has accumulated at a very fast pace and external debt to GDP ratio has been falling. Remittance inflows have also been very strong. Bangladesh Bank has progressively liberalized the foreign exchange regime selectively opening up private foreign borrowing for investment. Table: Sixth Plan Macroeconomic Performance Source: Sixth Plan and GED estimates. 6 6th Plan Progress: Structural Change and Economic Transformation Progress in strengthening the economic transformation of Bangladesh from an agrarian economy towards a more manufacturing and modern service economy. --Considerable progress achieved. Manufacturing and services grew much faster than agriculture. --Modernization of services sector underway --However several areas of concern: little progress with agricultural diversification; excessive dependence on RMG; sluggish small enterprises; and continued dominance of informal services Significant progress in narrowing rural-urban divide reflected in: larger share of rural income from non-agricultural activities; improved standards of rural living; sharp reduction in rural dependency ratio; substantial improvements in rural human development, improved availability of rural infrastructure, lower communication costs owing to ICT penetration Table 1.2: Structural Change in the Economy during the Sixth Plan (% of GDP) Structure of the Economy Agriculture Industry --of which Manufacturing Services FY2010 18 26 17 FY2015 16 28 18 56 56 Source: BBS. 7 Sixth Plan Progress – Job Creation •The estimated total number of estimated job creation (10.3 million) is very close to the plan target (10.4) owing to good performance of manufacturing, services and overseas migration. • This exceeds the addition to the labor force (9.2 million), thereby lowering the rate of underemployment and/or open unemployment in agriculture. •The growth of manufacturing employment has largely been on track. •The agriculture sector was not able to reduce its total employment share as projected in the Plan. Nevertheless, the total demand for labor in agriculture has exceeded the supply, as indicated by wage data that shows that the agricultural labor market has tightened progressively with sharp increases in the real wages of agricultural male and female workers. Table 1.3: Estimated Job Creation in the Sixth Plan (million workers) FY2010 (Base Year ) Domestic Employment -Agriculture -Manufacturing -Other industry -Services & Others Total Domestic Employment Additional Domestic Employment Additional Manpower Exports Additional Employment Additional labor force 25.7 6.7 2.8 18.9 54.1 Source: GED Estimates. FY2015 (Estimated) 25.2 9.6 4.3 23.1 62.2 8.1 2.2 10.3 9.2 FY 2015 (Adjusted Plan Target) 24.5 10.0 4.4 24.4 63.3 9.2 1.2 10.4 9.2 8 Sixth Plan Progress – Progress with Poverty Reduction •The incidences of poverty and extreme poverty is expected to have fallen significantly. The incidence of poverty is projected to have fallen below 25 percent and extreme poverty to around 12 percent. •Major contributors were: growth in employment; rise in real agricultural wages; expansion of micro credits; and rapid inflow of external remittances in rural areas. Table: Sixth Plan Poverty Progress and Determinants Performance Indicators Poverty headcount rate UPL (%) Baseline (2010) Target 2015 Actual 2015 31.5 22.5 24.9 Poverty headcount rate LPL (%) 17.6 N.A. 12.3 Rate of growth of GDP Expansion of domestic employment (million) 6.1 7.3 9.2 6.3 8.1 1.2 2.2 Expansion of foreign employment (million) Employment share of manufacturing (%) 12.0 15.8 15.4 Rate of growth of agricultural GDP (%) 5.20 3.1 Growth of Real Wages in Agriculture (kg of rice) (%) 6 4.3 Real GDP growth plus 0.4 14.3 Source: Sixth Five Year Plan; BBS. 9 Sixth Plan Progress with Human Development – Primary and secondary education •Further progress was made in both quantity and quality of primary and secondary education. •Nevertheless, quality issues remain paramount. •Expansion of tertiary education and eliminating gender parity in tertiary education remain important challenges • Public spending on education remains a concern. At 2.3% of GDP, public spending on education is low by international standards. •Equity issues of education spending and efficiency of spending are also a challenge Table: Sixth Plan Progress with Education Indicators Indicators of Participation Indicators of Internal Efficiency Indicators of Quality Indicators of Educational Expenditure Sub-indicators a) Primary Gross Enrollment Rate b) Primary Net Enrollment Rate c) Secondary Gross Enrollment Rate d) Secondary Net Enrollment Rate a) Primary Repetition Rate b) Primary Dropout Rate c) Primary Survival Rate d) Primary Student Absenteeism a) Primary Student Teacher Ratio b) Secondary Student Teacher Ratio a) Public expenditure on education as % of total expenditure b) Public expenditure on education as % of GDP 2010 (unless stated otherwise) 107.7% 94.8% 47.34% 43% 12.6% 39.8% 67.3% 16% 1:48 (2009) 1:35 (2009) 2014 (unless stated otherwise) 13.8% (2009) 2% (2009) 12.3% (2015) 2.3% (2015) 108.4% 97.7% 55.84% 50.21% 6.4% 20.9% 81% 13.3% 1:42 (2013) 1:37 (2013) 10 Sixth Plan Progress – Gender empowerment, Social Inclusion and Social Protection • Along with elimination of gender gender disparity in primary and secondary education, solid progress has been made in reducing disparity at the tertiary level. •Bangladesh has also advanced well in providing the regulatory framework for protection of women’s rights and privileges. Political empowerment is exemplary. However, further progress needed on the economic front. Implementation of laws a challenge. •Regarding social inclusion, the Sixth Plan’s strategy and programs have been broadly on track. Particular progress has been made in the area of child protection and in addressing special needs of CHT. •In social protection, the Government has continued to implement ongoing programs. New NSSS adopted. •Issues include weak implementation of programs and inadequate funding. Implementation of NSSS remains. Table: Progress with Gender Empowerment Objective Performance Indicators Women and men should enjoy equal social, political and economic opportunities Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education Seats held by women in national parliament Ratio of literate females to males (percent of ages 2024) Share of women employed in the non- agricultural sector Baseline FY(2010) Target FY 2015 Actual FY2015 32% 60% 50% 18.6% 33% 20% 85% 100% 86% 20% 50% 32% 11 Sixth Plan Progress – Environment and Disaster Management •Environment Pro-active pursuit of international programs; success in developing national level scientific expertise and government level actions on the environmental sustainability issues; and continued to push ahead with its policies and programs. Future challenges include: The M&E effort is weak ; a more focused and results-oriented strategy combining elements of policies, regulations, incentives, investment and capacity building are needed. An integrated approach to climate proofing of Bangladesh development strategy is the way to move forward. •Disaster Management The good progress with disaster management programs continued. The ability to sharply reduce the loss of lives and injuries based on a combination of early warning system, construction and availability of shelters and timely provision of relief and support measures are indicative of the good progress here. Challenges include: the management of the river system and the climate change agenda. Long-term planning and substantial public investment will be necessary. The formulation of the Bangladesh Delta Plan-2100 and its timely implementation during the Seventh Plan will be a major long-term policy and institutional initiative for building resilience and reducing the effects of disaster. 12 Sixth Plan Progress: Governance and Institutions • The Plan emphasized strengthening of judiciary, law enforcing agencies, democratic institutions, economic policy making institutions, decentralization and public administration. Progress has been made in a number of areas but there are substantial challenges. • The Sixth Plan’s culture of introducing results-based monitoring and evaluation is itself a major step forward in instituting better governance. • Progress made in areas relating to e-governance, the Right to Information (RTI), elected local governments, and the medium-term budgetary framework (MTBF). • Nevertheless, progress in terms of the governance indicators of the revised RF shows mixed results. The strengthening of the judicial process to achieve a much faster disposal of civil and criminal cases requires particular attention. • The priorities for the future include: strengthening of the democratic governance; strengthening of local governance; strengthening of civil service; reforming public banks, strengthening tax administration and strengthening ACC 13 C. 7th Plan Development Strategy • The 7th Plan strategy centers around four themes: • Break out of the mould of 6% growth and raise the annual growth rate to 7%+. • Growth will be inclusive, pro-poor, and environmentally sustainable. • By the end of the 7th FYP, extreme poverty will be substantially lowered. • All the additional labour force will be gainfully employed, including much of the under-employed. 14 D. 7th Plan Strategy – GDP Growth Targets •The Plan aims at raising the GDP growth rate from 6.5% in FY2015 to 8.0% by FY2020. •This suggests an average growth rate of 7.4%, which is around one percentage point higher than what was achieved during the Sixth Plan. Figure: 7th Plan GDP Growth Path 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.5 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 6.5 6.0 6.1 FY13 FY14 5.6 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 15 7th Plan Strategy: Sectoral Composition of Growth •The principal driver of growth acceleration will be the manufacturing sector, rising progressively to 12.6% annual growth in 2020. •Agricultural growth is expected to rise only moderately to 3.5% in 2020 based on diversification. • Modernization of services will continue with focus on enabling environment and safety standards. •As a result, further progress with structural transformation. Table: Growth Composition and Structural Change Growth rates (%) Sectors Agriculture o/w Crops Industry o/w Mfg Services GDP Agriculture o/w Crops Industry o/w Mfg Services Total FY15 3.0 1.3 9.6 10.3 5.8 6.5 FY15 15.6 7.5 28.0 17.8 56.4 100 FY16 3.2 1.4 10.2 10.5 6.3 7 FY16 15.1 7.6 28.9 18.4 56.0 100 FY17 3.3 1.4 10.5 11.0 6.4 7.2 FY18 3.3 1.4 10.8 11.3 6.5 7.4 Shares in GDP (%) FY17 FY18 14.5 14.0 7.3 6.9 29.8 30.8 19.1 19.8 55.7 55.2 100 100 Source: 7th Plan Projections FY19 3.4 1.4 11.2 12.0 6.6 7.6 FY19 13.4 6.5 31.8 20.6 54.8 100 FY20 3.5 1.4 11.9 12.6 6.7 8 FY20 12.9 6.1 33.0 21.5 54.1 100 16 7th Plan Strategy: Drivers of Growth and Employment • As in the past, capital accumulation, labor force growth and their productivity will remain key growth drivers. Given 6th Plan shortfalls in investment, raising the rate of investment is the highest priority. Emphasis will also be placed to strengthen the contribution of labor through skills development •Another growth driver is continued macroeconomic stability. • Growth acceleration will be supported by a high-performing export-oriented manufacturing sector diversified beyond readymade garment exports based on the elimination of the anti-export bias of the policy regime. • Higher growth combined with improved structure of production and strengthening of agricultural productivity and diversification will provide the basis for substantial new job creation in higher productivity activities (manufacturing and services). Reliance on export of labor services will continue. Table: 7th Plan Employment Strategy FY2016 7.0 FY2017 7.2 FY2018 7.4 FY2019 7.6 FY2020 8.0 Employment generation (0.45*g) 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 Migrant work 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Additional employment (million) 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 Additional Labor force (million) 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Excess employment (million) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 GDP growth (g) 17 7th Plan Growth Strategy: Special Factors •High growth is premised on fast-paced manufacturing growth based on labor-intensive exports that is globally competitive and compliant with WTO multilateral trading regime and standards emphasized in importing countries. •The 7th Plan seeks to boost development of the services sector that provides a cushion for labor absorption as agricultural employment shrinks. A particular emphasis is on continued modernization of services including export of non-factor services (shipping, aviations, tourism and ICT) •Rapid urbanization is an essential part of the underlying growth process. Given the multidimensional nature of urbanization challenges, the 7th Plan strategy focuses on improving urban governance through better transparency and accountability of institutions, decentralization, community participation, more efficient resource mobilization, and involvement of the private sector in the development of the urban sector. •The 7th FYP articulates a strategy to address problems of the lagging regions in order to bridge disparities across regions. Additional resources will be earmarked for narrowing the infrastructure gap, promoting manufacturing opportunities in lagging districts, expanding agriculture and rural economic activities, and creating opportunities for international migration. 18 E. 7th Plan Macroeconomic Framework •Higher growth balanced with efforts to reduce inflation to 5.5% by FY20 and maintain the strong BOP position through continued prudent monetary and fiscal management and proper exchange rate policy. •The key challenge is to increase the rate of investment from 26.9% of GDP in FY15 to 34.4% in FY20. •Both public and private investment will need to grow. Given limited public resources, efficiency of the public sector investment plan will be important for maximizing benefits. •Out of the planned 7.5% of GDP increase in gross investment, about one-fourth would need to come in the form of FDI, since the growth in national savings alone will not be sufficient to meet the required investment level. •Increased levels of FDI would also be desirable from the point of view of improved management, new technology, and greater market access for Bangladeshi exports. Table: Macroeconomic Scenario of the Seventh Five Year Plan Macro Indicator FY14 (Actual) FY15 (estimated) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Private investment (as % of GDP) 6.1 7.4 27.2 22.0 6.5 6.4 27.6 22.1 7 6.2 30.1 23.7 7.2 6 31.0 23.9 7.4 5.8 31.8 24.4 7.6 5.7 32.7 25.1 8 5.5 34.4 26.6 Public Investment (as % of GDP) 5.2 5.6 6.4 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.8 National Savings (as % of GDP) 29.1 27.1 29.1 29.7 30.2 30.7 32.1 Consumption (as% of GDP) 78.3 79.9 77.5 76.7 75.9 75.1 73.5 Growth: Real GDP (%) CPI Inflation (%) Gross Domestic Investment (as % of GDP) 19 7th Plan Macroeconomic Strategy: Public Investment Financing •Financing of higher public investment rate will require increased revenue mobilization through reform and modernization of tax policy and tax administration. •This will also require additional foreign borrowing and better use of the aid pipeline, consistent with prudent fiscal policy and public debt management Growth Rate (%) Growth in NBR Tax Revenue 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Seventh Plan Period Average Growth rate- 23.9% Sixth Plan Period Average Growth rate- 17.9% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Table : Fiscal Deficit and Financing under Seventh Five Year Plan As % of GDP Fiscal Deficit (including Grants) Financing Domestic Borrowing -Bank -Non-Bank External Borrowing (net) FY14 FY15 Actual Revenue Budget -4.7 4.7 3.6 2.2 1.4 1.1 -3.1 3.1 2.8 1.4 1.5 0.3 FY16 -4.7 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.2 1.4 FY17 -4.6 4.6 3.4 2.2 1.2 1.2 FY18 7FYP Period -4.7 4.7 3.5 2.3 1.2 1.2 FY19 FY20 -4.7 4.7 3.6 2.4 1.2 1.1 -4.7 4.7 3.7 2.5 1.2 1.0 20 7th Plan Macroeconomic Strategy: Public Spending Priorities •Substantial growth in government spending; balance between current and capital spending. Need to increase civil service wage increase and rising interest cost on debt. Higher O&M spending. Higher social protection spending. •Investment spending priority to infrastructure and rural development. Thrust on development expenditure to alleviate infrastructure constraints by fast tracking nationally important projects. •In addition major initiatives will be taken to broaden and accelerate the implementation of other major highways and bridges, power sector projects, and providing access to serviced land to foreign and domestic investors in the context of the Special Economic Zones (SEZ) initiative. Figure: 7th Plan Public Spending Priorities 25.0 Capital Investment As % of GDP 20.0 15.0 10.0 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.4 5.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 General Service etc 5.2 4.2 5.0 2.2 1.7 1.9 0.0 FY14 Education Figure : Key Drivers of Expenditure Growth: Projection FY16-FY20 2.1 1.6 2.3 1.8 2.5 1.9 3.9 3.6 FY15* FY16 2.8 2.2 2.3 3.0 3.2 2.6 2.1 2.7 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 2.3 1.8 Social Protection (Excluding Govt. Pension) Others *= Estimated 21 F. 7th Plan Strategy for Infrastructure Development - Power •Total generation during the 7th Plan will increase by 12,584 MW, which is substantially larger than the target that was in the Sixth Plan. • Some 61% (7682 MW) will be provided by the public sector and 39% (4902) MW by the private sector. •Commensurate expansion plans for Transmission and Distribution and Rural Electrification. •Continue power trade with India and expand to neighbors (Bhutan, Nepal) •Improve sector performance: reduce T&D losses; improve financing; improve sector management. Calendar Year Gas Gas/LNG Duel Fuel HFO Coal Import Renewable Total 2015-2016 (MW) 973 2016-2017 (MW) 2401 2017-2018 (MW) 657 2018-2019 (MW) 2019-2020 (MW) 1750 75 55 100 68 1271 FY 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total 395 511 512 30 3337 Public (MW) 937 2599 1076 1320 1750 7682 Sector 274 500 3036 1247 1943 3036 2997 Private (MW) 334 738 867 1716 1247 4902 Total (MW) 4031 1750 982 566 4557 600 98 12584 Sector Total (MW) 1271 3337 1943 3036 2997 12584 22 7th Plan Strategy for Infrastructure Development – Primary Energy •The strategy during the 7th Plan will be to meet the shortfall in domestic gas with coal and LNG. Further increases are planned for imported power and some small increments are expected from renewable energy (solar and wind power). •Adequacy of financing and infrastructure support for coal and LNG are major issues Figure: 7th Plan Primary Energy Strategy 120 100 others 80 Cross Border Fuel oil 60 40 Coal 20 Gas 0 FY2010 FY2015 : Power FY2020 FY2021 Figure Generation Plan by Fuel (%) FY2030 23 7th Plan Strategy for Infrastructure Development – Transport •Timely completion of all ongoing roads and bridges projects especially related to intercity highways. •Fast track a number transformational infrastructure investment, including the Padma Bridge, Deep Sea Port Project, MRT-6 project, LNG terminal project and the Payra Port Project. •Promote regional connectivity and support for the Trans-Asian Highway Project •Expand sea port capacity constraints owing to trade and energy production needs. •Expand airport capacity to handle growing international and domestic air traffic. •Address the major institutional constraints that have hampered implementation of infrastructure projects in the Sixth Plan. •Reform the PPP strategy to boost its role. •Address the urban transportation challenge of increasing traffic congestion. •Strengthen inter-modal transport with greater emphasis on rail and inland waterways to easy overload on road transport and ease the port-to-factory gate gridlock. •Addressing the broader governance and institutional challenges 24 G. 7th Plan Strategy for Human Development - Education •The 7th FYP will build on the progress made in the previous plan while addressing the constraints identified, especially on education quality and equity. •The employment challenge is another major concern, since a skilled workforce is a prerequisite for the structural changes in production envisaged during the 7th FYP. • Accordingly, greater emphasis will be placed on quality at all levels and expansion on secondary, higher, vocational and technical education. The importance of a well-rounded scientific education is also highlighted. Adoption of ICT in education is another priority. •To promote inclusive development, special attention will be given to the disadvantaged groups, women, children and persons with disabilities. •Increase public spending on education and encourage greater private provision including on training. •Make training relevant to needs of workplace. Table: 7th Plan Core Education Targets Indicator FY2015 FY2020 Net Enrolment at Primary Level (%) Net Enrolment at Secondary Level (%) Net Enrolment at Tertiary Level (%) Percentage of cohort reaching grade 5 (%) 97.3 57 12 80.5 100 100 20 100 Literacy Rate 56.8 100 25 7th Plan Strategy for Human Development - Health The health sector strategy emphasizes: Further reduction in TFR in order to reduce the population growth rate to 1% p.a. Emphasis on child immunization and under-5 mortality reduction . Improve maternal healthcare and lower maternal mortality. Improve child nutrition standards to lower the incidence of stunting and wasting Improve health financing through adoption of health insurance Address equity issues in healthcare through low-cost health services. Table: 7th Plan Major Health Targets PHN Indicators FY2015 FY2020 Total Fertility Rate 2.11 2.0 62 75 46.4 37 Immunization, measles (% children under 12 months) 84 100 Population Growth Rate (% per annum) 1.3 1 Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000 live births) 170 105 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total staff) 42.1 65 Increase Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (%) Under 5 Mortality Rate (per 1000) 26 H. 7th Plan Poverty Reduction Strategy •Continue the strategy that allowed solid progress with poverty reduction of the past 15 years with eventual elimination of extreme poverty. •Growth acceleration and job creation will be combined with targeted programs and social protection to lower poverty. •During the 7th Plan there will be renewed emphasis on income distribution. •Fiscal policy will be substantially strengthened to finance human development and social protection programs for the poor based on a progressive and inclusive income tax strategy. Table: 7th Plan Poverty and Inequality Targets Indicators FY2010 FY2015 FY2020 Incidence of Poverty 31.5 24.9 18.9 Incidence of Extreme Poverty 17.6 12.6 8.6 Consumption inequality (gini coefficient) 0.32 0.32 0.30 Income inequality (gini coefficient) 0.45 0.45 0.43 27 7th Plan Gender Strategy The framework for women’s empowerment and gender equality comprises of 4 areas of strategic objectives and associated policies. • Improve women’s human capabilities: This deals with women’s and girls’ access to health care, life expectancy, nutrition, reproductive health, education, information, training, and other services that enables women to achieve better health and educational outcomes. This also includes women’s freedom from violence and coercion. •Increase women’s economic benefits: This relates to women’s access to assets, resources, services, skills, property, employment, income, information, technology, financial services, and other economic opportunities including community resources (land, water, forest etc). •Enhance women’s voice and agency: This pertains to women’s role as decision makers in public and private spheres including politics and promotion of their leadership is considered here. Changed attitudes on women’s and girls’ rights, women’s enhanced knowledge of their rights and increasing their bargaining power are reflected on. •Create an enabling environment for women’s advancement: The socio-political environment, legal and policy support, and congenial social norms are the key in this area. Oversight, enforcement of laws, regular collection of sex-disaggregated data, gender and social analysis skills including the capacity to develop, implement, and monitor gender strategies, understanding of gender issues in the sector are the key areas. 28 7th Plan Social Protection Strategy •Resource constraints and competing priorities have caused a reduction in spending on social protection as a share of GDP in the recent years. •The efficiency of spending is also a matter of concern. •The Government has adopted a new comprehensive National Social Security Strategy (NSSS). The main challenge for the Seventh Plan will be the successful implementation of the NSSS. •The successful implementation of the NSSS will provide a strong basis for Bangladesh to extend proper social protection to its poor and vulnerable population. •Additionally, effort will be made to increase public spending on social protection from 1.7% of GDP in FY2015 to 2.6% of GDP by FY2020. 29 7th Plan Strategy for Social Inclusion •Strategy for the Children: Irrespective of gender and socio-economic background, all children should be ensured access to essential services, including social security, health care, nutrition and education, and enjoy protection from all forms of violence, abuse and exploitation, to be able to reach their full potential and realize their rights. •Strategy for Ethnic Population:. The ethnic communities of the CHT will be ensured access to education, health care, food and nutrition, employment, and overseas employment, and protection of rights to land and other resources. •Strategy for Dalits and Extreme Poor Groups: Erase the discrimination and exploitation faced by dalit communities and integrate them as full citizens of the country. •Strategy for Sexual Minority Groups: The vision is a society where sexual minority groups can live with respect and dignity and enjoy tolerance and social justice. This includes an HIV/AIDS free society with zero new infections, zero discrimination and zero deaths. •Strategy for the Disabled: The Government will promote and protect rights of persons with disabilities to facilitate their full participation in mainstream social, political and cultural lives. 30 I. 7th Plan Sustainable Development Strategy – Environment and Climate Change •Integrate environment and climate change issues in the 7th Plan growth and poverty reduction strategies. •Focus on sustainable use of water, land and forestry resources. Delta Plan is a key initiative in this regard. •Energy policy to emphasize energy conservation and use of clean fuel. •Emphasis on management of water and air pollution through regulatory and fiscal policies •Better integrate environmental issues in project selection •Strengthen core environment institutions ( DOE, Land Ministry, Forestry Ministry, Water Ministry and LGRD) 31 7th Plan Sustainable Development Strategy – Disaster Management The overall objective of disaster management (DM) is to build resilience of the poor and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to various natural and man-made disasters. •Upgrade the disaster management regulative framework. •Mainstream risk reduction and climate change adaptation principles in development programs, plans and policies. •Strengthen community and household level capacity to withstand the disastrous situation •Establishment of DM fund, the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) •Strengthen local capacity for disaster response • Institute ICT based Multi-hazard EWS at community level •Establish Go- NGO and private sector coordination for disaster risk reduction •Reduce vulnerability of the at risk communities through effective, targeted social safety nets •Establish & strengthen the regional networks •Strengthen the use of space based technology •Develop a monitoring and evaluation system to monitor disaster management performance 32 J. 7th Plan Governance and Institutions The Government acknowledges that governance deficits are observed across all walks of public life and understands that addressing governance challenges in the long-run necessitates a strong focus on institutions. •Justice and Rule of Law: Improve judicial effectiveness and rule of law . •Building Government Administrative Capacity: Improving Government’s administrative capacity is fundamental for enhancing Government’s effectiveness. •Improving Economic Governance: Improve the state of governance in the banking sector and the capital market. •Strengthening Local Government •Making parliamentary process effective •Representation, Participation and Accountability •Enhancing Integrity & Controlling Corruption •Strengthening the Election Commission (EC) •Promoting E-governance 33 K. 7th Plan Monitoring and Evaluation: Development Results Framework (DRF) Table : 7th Five Year Plan Targets in Context A. 1 2 3 4 5 6 B. 7 8 9 10 12 13 C. 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 D. 23 24 25 Targets Production, Income Generation and Poverty Real GDP Growth (%) Head Count Poverty (%) Reduction of extreme poverty (%) Share of manufacturing in GDP Share of manufacturing employment (%) Gross National income per capita (in US $) Sector Development Growth in agriculture (%) Growth in industry (%) Growth in services (%) Rice production (millions MT) Exports (US$ billions) Trade-GDP ratio (%) Macroeconomic Development Total Revenue (% of GDP) NBR Tax Revenue (% of GDP) Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) Remittances ($ billions) Total Government Spending (% of GDP) National Savings (% of GDP) Gross Domestic Investment (% of GDP) FDI ($ billions) CPI Inflation (average) Urban Development % of urban population with access improved water source Coverage of drainage system in Dhaka (%) Sanitation facilities for city dwellers (%) Progress under 6th FYP 2015 7th FYP 2020 6.5 23.6 12.3 17.78 15.4 1314 8 16.6 8.0 25.1 20 2009 3.04 9.6 5.83 35.39 31.7 42.97 3.34† 10.9† 6.49† 36.81 55.1 50 10.7 8.8 4.7 15.6 15.7 29.01 28.97 1.60 6.5 16.1 13.7 4.7 25.4 21.1 32 34.4 9.56 5.5 86 60 40 100 80 60 34 7th Plan DRF (contd.) E. Human Resource Development (Education, Health and Population) 26 Net Enrolment at Primary Level (%) 27 97.3 100 Net Enrolment at Secondary Level (%) 57 100 28 Net Enrolment at Tertiary Level (%) 12 20 29 Percentage of cohort reaching grade 5 (%) 80.5 100 30 Total Fertility Rate 2.11 2.0 31 Increase Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (%) 62 75 32 Under 5 Mortality Rate (per 1000) 46.4 37 33 Immunization, measles (% children under 12 months) 84 100 34 Population Growth Rate (% per annum) 1.3 1 35 Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000 live births) 170 105 36 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total staff) 42.1 65 37 Literacy Rate 56.8 100 F. Water and Sanitation 38 Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population) 57 100 39 % of rural population with access to improved water source 84 100 G. Energy and Infrastructure 40 Electricity Generation (MW) 11,532 23000* 41 Electricity Coverage (%) 65 100 42. Per Capita Electricity Consumption 348 KWH 600 KWH 43. Transmission and Distribution Loss 13% 9% 35 7th Plan DRF (contd.) H. Gender Equality and Social Protection 44 Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education (%) 70 100 45 Ratio of literate females to males (percent of ages 20- 24) 86 100 46 Female enrolment in technical and vocational education (%) 27 40 47 Income Inequality (Gini coefficient) 0.45 0.45 48 Spending on Social Protection (% of GDP) 2.02 2.6 I. Environmental Sustainability 49 Productive Forest Coverage (%) (70 % tree density) 13.14 20 50 Dry season water availability (% of total flow) 15 25 51 Average flood extent (% of total area) 30 25‡ 52 Flood vulnerable people (in millions) 88 60‡ 53 Cyclone damage extent (% of total area) 10 4‡ 54 Water logging extent (% of total coastal area) 2.5 0.5‡ J. ICT Development 55 Research and Development Spending/GDP (%) 56 Increase teledensity (%) 78 100 57 Expansion of Broad Band Coverage (%) 30 35 58 Earnings from ICT, travel and tourism ($ billions) 1.5 6 1 36