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Part.3 States and Markets in the Global Economy Part III presents four case studies of international political economy (IPE) analysis. Each study poses particular questions or explores particular themes that apply around the globe. Chap.11: the development conundrum. Chap.12: regionalism. Chap.13: postcommunist countries. Chap.14: political economic relations in Middle Eastern and North African states. 110329_Tsinghua_final_02.pptx 2 International Political Economy Chap. 11 The Development Conundrum: Choices Amidst Constraints Professor Yu Xunda 2013. 06. Suggested Readings Ha-Joon Chang. Kicking Away the Ladder—Development Strategy in Historical Perspective. London: Anthem Press,2002. Ha-Joon Chang. Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism. London: Bloomsbury Press,2008. Hernando de Soto. The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else. New York: Basic Books, 2000. Stephen A. Marglin. “Development as Poison: Rethinking the Western Model of Unity,” Harvard International Review, 25(Spring 2003). Theodore H. Moran. Beyond Sweatshops: Foreign Direct Investment and Globalization in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: Brookings, 2002. Oxfam. Paying the Price: Why Rich Countries Must Invest Now in a War on Poverty. Oxford: Oxford International, 2005. The Economist. “Recasting the Case for Aid,” January 22, 2005. Tina Rosenberg. “That Taint of the Greased Palm,” New York Times Magazine, August 10,2003, pp.28-33. CONTENT 1. What Are Developing Nations? 2. How To Develop? Four IPE Development Strategies 3. Lessons Of The East Asian Miracle And Financial Crisis 4. Development And Globalization 1. What Are Developing Nations? 1. What Are Developing Nations? --- Introduction Those countries included in the South, the LDCs, the developing countries, or the emerging economies are societies with diverse histories, cultures, economies, and political systems. Much is made of the gap between North and South and whether global inequality has The characteristics they share: increased, decreased, or remained about the High instances of poverty; earning less than $2 per day; same over the last half century. Income inequality and lack of a middle class; Lack of education; Inadequate health care; Inequality, both between nations and within Hunger; nations, is an important issue, and there are High instances of infant mortality; endless debates over how the global pie ought Lack of infrastructure; to be divided and why the division is so much Weak governments; uneven today. Dependency on foreign aid and humanitarian assistance. 1.1 Independence and Underdevelopment As the colonial empires gradually disintegrated during the mid-twentieth century, new nation-states emerged into an international order shaped by the Cold War. Three camps: The First World: the U.S and its industrial democracy allies. The Second World: the Soviet Union and its allies. The Third World (or LDCs): newly formed nations in Asia, Latin America, and Africa Development Paradox---- On one hand, the promises of development were an end to poverty and the start of true independence; On the other hand, development meant exploitation, manipulation, and continued subjugation. This discord is manifested in three major forces that shaped the development conundrum for LDCs. Some LDCs approached development both as a response to the exploitative colonial conditions and as a resistance to cultural domination by the West. The second force to shape development for many LDCs was the Cold War. The economic success of the developed countries provided a strong rationale. 1.2 Is Development Possible? ---(1) Individually, LDCs were unable to exert much influence on the international system and its institutions. Then, a number of them tried to promote a collective identity. Practices: --- the 1955 Afro-Asian Bandung Conference ---the 1961 Nonaligned Movement (NAM) The threefold purpose of NAM: Advocating political independence for remaining European colonies Positioning themselves outside the sphere of the Cold War scenario. Promoting the interests of the LDCs as whole. One of the main priorities of the South--------------neo-colonialism Complementing the domination of multinational corporations was a restrictive system of trade, financial, and technology transfer that made LDCs economically vulnerable and weakened their development prospects. Having failed to influence the international system through their collective action, some LDCs began to doubt that development was even possible within the existing international structure. Because of the international division of labor, production specialization, and the free-trade system. 1.2 Is Development Possible? ---(2) Dependency theories--------Dependence was considered significant, as it resulted in underdevelopment in LDCs. A distinction between underdevelopment & undevelopment. A metropolis-satellite system along with underdevelopment that originated in the European colonial order prior to 20th century. Several mechanisms reproducing the dominant-subordinate relation and worsen the underdevelopment process in LDCs. Through multinational companies (MNCs); The unequal exchange relationship; The international financial and foreign aid. 1.3 UNCTAD and the NIEO: LDCs Organize to Change the System Frustrated by their meager success, many LDCs turned to their membership within international organizations to cooperate and change the IPE structures. In 1964, the UNCTAD and the G-77. ---------GSP: a Generalized System of Preference In 1973, the OPEC and those oil-producing development countries. In 1974, a New International Economic Order (NIEO) However, based on the general opposition of the industrialized countries, efforts by LDCs in the 1970s to change the system failed. LDCs were left with the following choices: Promoting autonomous local development without the global market Accepting global markets 1.4 The Market Unleashed In the 1980s, the conservative Regan administration and the free-market ideology. By the 1990s, the fall of the Soviet Union and the collapse of communism gave even more momentum to the “Washington Consensus”. Also with the deepening globalization which affirmed privatization and free trade. 2. How To Develop? Four IPE Development Strategies 2.1 The Economic Liberal Perspective ---(1) The economic liberal perspective on development requires that LDCs become intimately integrated into the global market economy. From the liberal perspective, FDI and MNCs are a major source for capital, jobs, export revenues, and technology in LDCs. As “latecomers,” LDCs can use the market to develop and industrialized, while learning from the pitfalls and policy mistakes of the now developed nations. 2.1 The Economic Liberal Perspective ---(2) A “race to the bottom” The economic liberal model focuses on internal conditions in LDCs stifle economic development. Other variants of this perspective also emphasize the social aspects of development. The theory of “staged of growth”-----------W.W.Rostow five basic stages of economic development: traditional society, preconditions for take-off, take-off, drive to economic maturity, high mass consumption and self-sustained. He perceived the stages of development as universal, arguing that in the long run, the North can model the development process for the South. The trickle-down effect Economic liberal ideas have related in part to the economic growth achieved by many states, including Japan, the Asian Tigers, the Philippines Malaysia......all of whom adopted some variant of outward-looking export-oriented policies. 2.2 The Structuralist Perspective ---(1) Moran argued that a passive strategy that counts on sweatshop earnings to “trickle down” and eventually create more growth is wrongheaded. He proposes a “buildup” strategy. The buildup strategy must be broad-based, not just aimed at attracting MNC funds. The Marxist and early structuralist critiques of the development problem begin with the relationship of core to peripheral countries The Western industrial model is inappropriate for LDCs as the developed nation’s “neo-imperial” connections to the South via trade, aid, and FDI often result in dual economies. 2.2 The Structuralist Perspective ---(2) For the ardent Marxist-structuralists, the liberal trickle-down market model ultimately benefits only elites and core nations and does not produce wider societal development. The Marxist-structuralist model was closely associated with pro-Soviet communist models during the Cold War. They sought similar benefits by focusing on self-sufficiency and isolation from the capitalist international economy. Inward looking strategies & import-substituting industries (ISI). Structuralists viewed the ISI strategy as a way for countries in the periphery to achieve development while minimizing the risk and adverse effects of dependency ties with the core. The inward-looking and nationalistic import-substitution approach was implemented to reduce dependence on foreign capital, technology, and markets and to promote “home-grown” industries. 2.2 The Structuralist Perspective ---(3) Also the import-substitution approach path is a series of stages: The 1st stage --------promoting local manufacture of consumer goods The 2nd stage -------expanding the manufacture of labor-intensive consumer goods along with diversifying into capital-intensive goods. However, the performance of these economies was not as strong as that of the export-oriented East Asian NICs. Based on this, many structuralists are open to the idea that export-oriented growth and an aggressive trade posture can reap important benefits for a developing nation. 2.3 The Mercantilist Perspective The mercantilists consider international trade as essential but also strategic to national development. But they are not enthusiastic about the laissez-faire and limited -government doctrine. States have a critical role to play in coordinating a trade strategy that would be conducive to promoting economic development. Several developing countries in East Asia adopted strategies that are generally termed export-oriented growth. It is based on a combination of mercantilist and liberal prescriptions for economic growth and development. There are certain common trends among the East Asian NICs: First, the export-oriented policies of East Asian NICs involved changing the fundamental composition of the their production. Second, this export-led growth strategy involved promoting a high level of saving and investment. 2.4 Self-Reliance The self-reliance strategy reflects the conclusion reached by many development experts and officials that there is no one “magic bullet” approach for development. This model stresses the importance of taking into consideration the unique circumstances, economic challenges, and resources of each country, when considering the combinations of strategies that many be appropriate. Which strategy will be adopted should be decided not on the basis of theory alone, but rather on the assessment of the complex domestic and international factors a particular LDC confronts. 3. Lessons Of The East Asian Miracle And Financial Crisis 3.1 Lessons Of East Asian Miracle And Financial Crisis --(1) ---------- What were the lessons learned from the debate between import-substituting industrialization and export-oriented growth? 1973, the WB released a study titled The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. The report argued that the “East Asian Miracle”—high growth without great inequality ——was due to two basic factors. The East Asian countries were successful at “getting the fundamentals right”. Second, some of the state policies were effective in increasing growth, especially “export-push” policies. 3.1 Lessons Of East Asian Miracle And Financial Crisis --(2) Conclusion: LDCs avoid both types of state-led growth strategies and adopt instead the neoliberal Washington Consensus of free trade, free capital markets, and limited government intervention. They pointed out that many of the positive factors in Asian economic development, such as high saving rates, strong education system, and relative income inequality, were dictated by state actions, not due to the absence of them. The Asian financial crisis caused debates. Some argued that the crisis was caused or exacerbated by unwise state involvement in the economy (often called crony capitalism) The Asian financial crisis was created by a combination of market imperfections and what states did (business-government relations that sometimes encouraged financial abuse) and did not do (the lack of effective regulation and more comprehensive social safety nets). The key of development in LDCs is not open markets, more government, or less government. Rather, they need good government. 4. Development And Globalization 4.1 Global Competition and Interdependence The 1990s began the era of intense global economic interdependence. This decade brought three major changes: Economic liberation in China, begun in the 1980s, accelerated as Hong Kong was returned from British rule in 1997 and China was granted membership in the WTO in 2001. The collapse of the communist government of the Soviet Union and its Eastern European satellite nations turned them all into “emerging market” economics. A series of government reforms in India turned its strategy from inward-looking state development to outward-looking market development. Such global competition for products, resources, investments, and markets created problems and opportunities both for LDCs and for the advanced industrial countries. 4.2 Trade and Finance Policies The option of completely autonomous development gradually faded from the scene, it was replaced by the notion that development needed to take advantages of global resources and market opportunities. More and more of the resources for development came from financial markets, not from transfers of aid. A consensus emerged among LDCs that the rules of international trade and financial organizations were unfavorable to the interests of LDCs. LDCs begun to demand more access to rich-country markets. 4.3 The Informal Economy and the Mystery of Capital The informal economy is the part of the economic system that operated outside of direct government control or regulation. It is often an important part of the LDC economy and a source of opportunity for grassroots entrepreneurship. However, in many countries, government regulations and legal issues make it difficult for people to get started in the informal economy, to take full advantage of its opportunities, and to leverage their success. 4.4 Microcredit and Macrocredit One of the most interesting features of the globalization era has been the realization that economic development, if it is to succeed, must proceed at all levels at once. One of the great errors of grand development strategies was the notion that development financed by “macrocredit” would trickle down from international capitalist institutions or a planning agency to the villages and city streets. Microcredit is one of the beneficiaries of this “trickle up” approach. -----------to provide credit to people to start their own small businesses, lifting themselves from poverty through their own initiative. E.g the Grameen Bank The reason that microcredit institutions are successful involves an economic problem called asymmetric information, which always limited grassroots development. 4.5 Development in the New Millennium Despite years of debates about competing models and strategies, the perspectence of poverty remained critical and endemic in many parts of the world. E.g: the problem of access to health care. In 2005, the UN announced the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to refocus the international community’s commitment to addressing dire economic and human conditions in the world’s poorest nations. The goals are as followings : Eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, Achieving universal primary education, Promoting gender equality and empowering women, Reducing child mortality rates, Improving maternal health, Combating HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases, Ensuring environmental sustainability, Developing a global partnership for development. The industrialized states can and should provide more aid to the poorest nations. Also IMF-led austerity has frequently let to riots, coups, and the collapse of public services. Discussion Questions • How serious is the problem of global poverty today? Explain citing data from this chapter. • What four forces have shaped the development process for LDCs? How do these forces create tensions within LDCs and between LDCs and industrial nations? Explain。 • Briefly trace how the issues regarding economic development have changed since the early postcolonial days of the 1950s and 1960s. In particular, discuss the tensions between the UNCTAD and the NIEO, between import-substitution industrialization and export-oriented growth, and between the advocates of the Asian Miracle and those who favor the Washington Consensus. • The chapter’s author argues that developing countries need good government more than they need less government or more government. What are the characteristics of good government with respect to economic development? Explain. (Hint: consider some of the factors discussed in the last section of this chapter)