Download CP.5.GermanPolitics

A BIT ABOUT GERMANY
•82 Million people, or about one fourth the population of the US;
about the size of Montana
•Shares borders with 9 countries…
•Debt to GDP: about 80% vs. US about 100%
•Budget deficits/surplus last year: +218B Germ vs. -477B US
•Deficit as share GDP; US -7%; Germ +.1
•GDP: $3.3 trillion, #4 in the world (vs US $14 tril); 21% of EU
(vs. 14% UK, 16% FR, 12% Italy)
•GDP 1990 – 2010: 3.96% annual growth (vs US: 5.3%)
•Exports: #2 or #3 in the world in the world.
Germ trade balance last year: +$242B ; US -$744B.
•Unemployment (measured differently): Germ 5.5%; US 4.6 (Feb,
2017)
Why study Germany?
•What can it tell us about late-developing states (1860s-70’s)? Any
lessons for our thinking about China?
•What can Germany tell us about why it’s important to get the
democratic choices right for your society? What can it tell us
about poor choices embedded in a democratic constitution
(Weimar Republic)
•What can it tell us about punishing countries for bad leaders
when you want to make them a democracy later on?
•How long does it take to build a democracy that works? What
does it take?
•Is Germany’s “two-party, plus” electoral system the best?
•What kind of political culture is necessary for democracy to
flourish?
•What can Germany tell us about globalization’s pressures on
subnational govts? What does it tell us about the upside and
consequences of joining disparate economies and environments
into one economic unit (from below and above)?
WHAT ARE THE KEY CRITICAL
JUNCTURES IN GERMAN HISTORY?
•Why statehood and democracy so darn late? From
loose fiefdoms ( to Napoleon, to domination by
Prussia’s Bismark (1850s)
•The Second Reich (1871-1918): Economic expansion
followed pseudo- democracy. Why does
democratization often stop here? Why was this
historical a lousy time to become semi-democratic?
•Why us-first isn’t always smart in the bigger picture:
Treaty of Versailles (1919)
•The Weimar Republic (1919): Healthcare and pensions
for all…Everyone votes, PR elections w/ no threshold,
referenda, no limits on no-confidence votes … and a
strong, directly elected president
MORE CRITICAL JUNCTURES
•The Nazis’ Third Reich (1933-45). Fascist and
totalitarian
•Divided Germany (1949-90), with lots and lots
of resources, an existential threat (Russia),
and institutionalization, including the Basic
Law.This is how you make democracies
•Reunification (1989-90): Wow! But expensive
($2 trillion in infrastruct alone)
•Central leadership in the expansion and
institutionalization of the European Union,
including adoption of the Euro
HOW DOES THE GERMAN SET UP
POWER?
•Why do they have a written Constitution?
•Federalism (more on this on the next slide)
•An far-reaching Bill of Rights: Is it good to write
everything down? (Settlements can be helpful)
•Dual executive (Pres+Chancellor) & bicameral
natl. legislature (Bundestag+Bundesrat)
•A strong supreme constitutional court with
judicial review and an unusually broad
jurisdiction (but also selected with 2/3 super
majorities, 6 by each chamber of the legislature),
& 12 yr term-limits… and set retirement at 68)
•A const. fixed electoral process (multi-party)
HOW DOES GERMAN FEDERALISM
WORK?
•Germany’s strong Lander (but not as strong of the US) have PR
parliaments
•Significant tax revenues (40%) & discretion on how to use it… but they
can’t levy state-level taxes like in the US, so you do not have as unequal
taxing and spending like here.
•Lander legislatures select state delegations to the Bundesrat, which has
strong autonomous powers…that aren’t fully used except to protect state
power
•Lander legislatures select half of the 16-member Constitutional Court via
role in Bundesrat
•Lander provide half of the electoral college that selects the president to
7-year fixed terms.
•Can you have strong state governments in the context of globalization
and the EU? This is an issue that the US and Germany is having to sort
through.
WHAT IS UNIQUE ABOUT THE
BUNDESTAG?
•Germany has a semi-parliamentary system… How does
this work in places like Russia and France? Why does it
work here
•The Chancellor has a large executive staff, that is not
selected from legislature
•Formal policy guidelines issue for the cabinet
•Why doesn’t Germany have Chancellor-called early
elections like most parliamentary systems? Why only
“constructive” no-confidence votes?
•Is there any advantage to having at least somewhat
independent legislators? Committees, individual
lawmaking, & casework are stronger in Germany than
Britain but way weaker than in the US
HOW DOES THE TWO-PLUS PARTY
SYSTEM WORK?
•The Bundestag’s electoral system for 600+ legislators is (1) half
PR. with an all-national district, & (2) half SMD (single-member
district), using plurality elections
•Just a reminder: SMD-plurality elections are sometimes
called “first-past the post” whenthere is no run-off)
•How does Germany’s ballot work? Isn’t it confusing?
•The SMD system leads to two big parties: the CDU and the SPD
•The PR system helps other parties: Greens, Free Democrats, and
the Left ( which is mostly the old E. Germany Communist party)
•What to make of all these hung parliaments where any
combination of parties can form a government? Is Germany still a
model that others should look at? Is it helpful to have “grand
coaition” as has been the case since 2013 (CDU = dominant party,
SPD is junior party)
DOES GERMAN DEMOCRACY WORK?
A little context:
A full, representative democracy achieved in just a
couple of decades:
1950s: studied as non-democ; today = a “model”
•Industrialization in the big picture:
1951: GNP per cap = $500 (1/4 US);
Today: $30K (= to Britain & Japan)
•Unification costs: Over $3 trillion. E. Germ. still
receives 4% of GDP in transfers (7.5% tax
surcharge)
WHAT’S THE GERMAN APPROACH TO
GLOBALIZATION?
•Harder to get things changed than in Britain, but stability and
centralism are the norm versus America’s inaction
•Corporatism under a strong state (the Bundesbank)
•Codetermination with wage restraints
•Worker benefits & a very generous social policy
•What’s their secret? Selective privatization; strategic social
investment; and above all a political culture that emphasizes
consensus, sacrifice, and stability
•Is Germany’s domestic politics (emphasis on saving and external
trade) going to harm their international relations over the long run?
•Schroeder (Social Democratic) and Merkel (Christian Democrats): How
different? Not very different.
•Is the govt. held hostage by workers & small parties? It hasn’t been,
but increasingly there are issues. Immigration concerns are central in
this.