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Forging the Social Pact Chantell Ilbury Independent Scenario Strategist CONSTRUCTING THE FUTURE Global Scenarios ONE WORLD Hard Times New Balls Please U V (2020) (2014) Forked Lightning Ultraviolet UV DIVIDED WORLD ©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com Characteristics of a winning nation • A good quality of education • A strong work ethic and spirit of entrepreneurship • A high rate of savings ( and early access to capital for businesses that require it ) • Adequate infrastructure to support a high-growth economy • Being an export-orientated global player that supplies goods and/or services to foreign markets that they can’t get elsewhere • A dual-logic economy ( big and small business work in constructive partnership ) • Social harmony ( citizens feel they are part of one team with a common vision ) • Competitive personal and company tax rates • An attractive environment for foreign direct investment • Efficient government ©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com South African Scenarios COMPETITIVENESS +VE Premier League (top 57 countries) X Relegation Zone INTERNAL CONFLICT Inclusive leadership Pockets of excellence Balanced economy “Arab Spring” Failed State Second Division COMPETITIVENESS -VE ©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com INTERNAL HARMONY Good quality education system Private Schools Bluff Unequal society Royal Flush A Few Public Schools Equal society • Opportunities for all • Barriers to access opportunities Majority of Public Schools Fold Raise Poor quality education system 21st Century Megatrends 1. Populations are ageing • • • • US - issues around state funding of medical care and social security China - One-child policy and demographic cliff Africa, South America and Indonesia still young and growing populations Increasing longevity goes hand in hand with rising income levels 2. More economies will return to a steady state • • Japan has led the way, with Europe about to follow suit Facing a relatively flat economic universe driven by static populations in more advanced economies 3. We have moved from the Age of Knowledge to the Age of Intelligence • • • Internet has changed access to knowledge – differentiator is way we use it and create new knowledge Education about connecting dots – intelligence and cognitive skills Companies need intelligent strategy to survive ©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com 21st Century Megatrends 4. It’s about defending, not growing wealth • • • Prices and inflation high, interest rates low, retirement age up More difficult to make money with money In a steady-state universe, need to be a value-driven investor intent on stocks offering a satisfactory dividend yield and modest priceearnings ratio 5. Education out of sync with job market and changing nature of work • • • Worldwide, youth unemployment is an issue Schools educating for outdated job market Expect social unrest among young citizens 6. A second, more dangerous scramble for resources • • • ‘Easy’ days are over – need to access more remote deposits Growing scarcity of water and food Marine mining and offshore drilling focus areas for conflict 7. Wars will continue with more sophisticated weapons • • Technology changes conventional weapons to WMDs Ability to kill forever improving ©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com 21st Century Megatrends 8. Like black swans, natural disasters will come out of the blue • • • Natural disasters + increasing population = high death tolls Lagging shift in policies around super-emitters Short-term government policies clash with long-term climate change realities 9. Dictatorial regimes will become rarer, but not necessarily replaced by democracy • • Arab spring has resulted in change…but to what? Social media a force of change 10. Work/life balance is now even more elusive • • • Technological connectivity means working 24/7 Work intruding into every aspect of life, with little time for switch off The strain is showing ©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com The critical component to forging a social pact What partnerships are needed to adapt the education system to meet the realities of the job market and the changing nature of work? The Conversation Model 8 9 Options Decisions 7 10 S.W.O.T Meaning of Winning Playing the Game 6 1 Scenarios Context Defining the Game 5 Key Uncertainties 2 4 3 Rules of the Game Players Scope ©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com