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Introduction I What do we need in climate study? Norden E. Huang Research Center for Adaptive Data Analysis National Central University IPCC AR4 Are IPCC conclusions hard sciences? IPCC Global Mean Temperature Trend “Note that for shorter recent periods, the slope is greater, indicating accelerated warming.” IPCC 4th Assessment Report 2007 Spread of Projections Historical data: Now = 2005 10K 5K 0 Are the climate change issues settled? Change = Running away warming? Met Office: 2010 to be the hottest on record Confusions! The mini ice age starts here IPCC Blunder? Or …. Art or Science? Art or Science? Settled or not? Settled or not? The public is confused The scientific community is divided, albeit unevenly. Pew Research Institute : 12 July 2006 Country A great deal A fair amount A little/not at all DK United States 19 34 47 1 China 20 41 37 2 Great Britain 26 41 32 1 Germany 30 34 36 1 Russia 34 31 34 1 France 46 41 14 0 India 65 20 13 2 Japan 66 27 7 0 World Bank Polls : 2008 World Bank Polls : 2008 World Bank Polls : 2008 Gallop Polls Respondents were asked the following question: “ I’m going to read you a list of environmental problems. As I read each one, please tell me if you personally worry a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all.” Results are based on phone interviews on March 5–8, 2009. The sample comprised 1,012 U.S. citizens aged 18 and older. Greening efforts What should we do? What can we do? It is urgent that we clarify the whole climate change issue. Causes of Climate Changes • • • • • • • • Plate tectonic Orbital forcing Solar output Aerosols ozone Volcanism Greenhouse gases Feedback from Ocean variability * Ocean variability is missing. The History Global warming as a disaster is a relative new issue. The Solar System Inner Terrestrial Planets Climate of the Inner Planets • Mercury – 0.4AU, 0.055EM: temperature -200 to 400oC • Venus – 0.7AU,0.815EM: 90 times atmospheric pressure, 460oC • Earth – 1AU, 1EM, 1 atm., Mean Temperature 14oC • Mars – 1.5AU, 0.107EM, Temperature -133 to 0oC with a mean of -63oC Why the climate of the earth is so agreeable? Because of greenhouse effects! The Earth • Surface: 70.8% water, 29.3% Land • Atmosphere: 78% Nitrogen, 21% Oxygen and tracer quantity of other gases (for example: CO2,380ppm; Methane, 700ppb). • Without Greenhouse effects: the surface temperature would be -18oC; but now stands at 14oC. The Greenhouse Effect What are greenhouse gases? The present greenhouse gas rankings Order of Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases are: • Water vapor • Carbon Dioxide • Methane • Nitrous oxide • Ozone • CFCs greenhouse effect, the most important are: • water vapor, 36–72% • carbon dioxide, 9– 26% • methane, 4–9% • ozone, 3–7% The spectrum of radiation Who discovered greenhouse effects? John Tyndall (1820-1893) Born: 2 August 1820 Died: 4 December 1893 Nationality: British Fields: Physics Institutions: Royal Institution Known for: Atmosphere, Infrared radiation. Tyndall and Greenhouse effects • Establishes that the principal properties of visible light can be reproduced for radiant heat, namely reflection, refraction, diffraction, polarization, depolarization, double refraction, and rotation in a magnetic field. He referred to radiant heat as "obscure radiation", "dark waves" or "ultra-red undulations", as the word "infrared" didn't start coming into use until the 1880s. • He measured the infrared absorptive powers of the gases nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, and proved that the Earth's atmosphere has a Greenhouse Effect. Svante August Arrhenius (1859-1927) Born :19 February 1859 Died : 2 October 1927 Notable awards Nobel prize for Chemistry (1903) Arrhenius’s greenhouse gas law • CO2 is the driver regulating the ice age. • If the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression: C ; C = C O 2 co n cen tra tio n ; T , tem p era tu re. C o T = lo g • A warmer earth would be needed to feed the rapidly increasing population. • Now we know that orbital forcing sets the timing for ice ages with CO2 acting as an essential amplifying feedback but not the driver. CO2 Observations Charles David Keeling (1928-2005) Born: April 20, 1928 Died: June 20, 2005 Major: Chemistry Honor: National medal of Science 2002 The Keeling Curve Plate Tectonic Very long term climate changes Alfred Lothar Wegner (1880-1930) Born: November 1, 1880, Berlin Died : November 1930 Clarinetania, Greenland Nationality: German Fields: Meteorology, Geology and Astronomy Modern reconstruction of Pangaea ca. 255 million years ago Paleo-climatic data Land Mass Distribution Geological time scale changes Atmospheric CO2 IPCC Assessment 4 2007 Oxygen and Carbon records Deep sea foraminifera isotope records :Zachos et al., 2001，Science "The Garden of Eden" by Thomas Cole (c.1828) Orbit perturbations Milankovitch scales Milutin Milankovitch (1979-1958) Born: May 28, 1879, AustriaHungary Died: December 12, 1958 Belgrade, Serbia, Yugoslavia Nationality: Serb Fields: civil engineering and geophysics Earth Orbital Parameters Milankovitch time scales Observation data for long term climate variability EPICA Dome C European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica 60 °S Two cores in the Dome C region: 70 Dronning Maud Land °S 1. Core EDC96, started in 1996, is 788 m length. Berkner Island Dom e F 80 °S 2. Core EDC99, started in 1999, reached a depth of 3260 m, and an estimated ice age of 801,000 years. Cores EDC96 and EDC99 were drilled 10m apart both are located at 75°06'S, 123°24'E. Byrd Vostok Law Dom e Dom e C Siple Dom e Taylor Dom e 0km 1,000km 2,000km Paleo-climatic Ice Core Data: Temperature led CO2!! EPICA Dome C Ice Core 6 non‐stationary 4 non‐linear Proxy Temperature: C 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 0 100 200 300 400 500 Time: K-Years Before Present 600 700 800 1 Dome-C Ice Core Greenland Reconstructed 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Time: K-Years 600 68.1% 79.4% 56.8% ‐41.3% 67.3% 700 800 Closest A look into the future A look into the future Observations • Milankovitch time scales are the dominant periods in the recent climate data when the proxy data quality is good. • There seems to be additional ultra long periods of 1 and 2.5 Ma. • The eccentricity, obliquity and procession could account for near 60% of the climate variations. • Ice Age is next: That is disastrous!