Download Introduction What do we need in climate study?

Introduction I
What do we need in climate study?
Norden E. Huang
Research Center for Adaptive Data Analysis
National Central University
IPCC AR4
Are IPCC conclusions hard sciences?
IPCC Global Mean Temperature Trend
“Note that for shorter recent periods,
the slope is greater, indicating
accelerated warming.”
IPCC 4th Assessment Report 2007
Spread of Projections
Historical data: Now = 2005
10K
5K
0
Are the climate change
issues settled?
Change = Running away warming?
Met Office: 2010 to be the hottest on record
Confusions!
The mini ice age starts here
IPCC Blunder? Or ….
Art or Science?
Art or Science?
Settled or not?
Settled or not?
The public is confused
The scientific community is divided,
albeit unevenly.
Pew Research Institute : 12 July 2006
Country
A great deal
A fair amount
A little/not at all
DK
United States
19
34
47
1
China
20
41
37
2
Great Britain
26
41
32
1
Germany
30
34
36
1
Russia
34
31
34
1
France
46
41
14
0
India
65
20
13
2
Japan
66
27
7
0
World Bank Polls : 2008
World Bank Polls : 2008
World Bank Polls : 2008
Gallop Polls
Respondents were asked the following question: “ I’m going to read you a list of environmental problems. As I read each
one, please tell me if you personally worry a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all.” Results are based on
phone interviews on March 5–8, 2009. The sample comprised 1,012 U.S. citizens aged 18 and older.
Greening efforts
What should we do?
What can we do?
It is urgent that we clarify the
whole climate change issue.
Causes of Climate Changes
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Plate tectonic
Orbital forcing
Solar output
Aerosols
ozone
Volcanism
Greenhouse gases
Feedback from Ocean variability
* Ocean variability is missing.
The History
Global warming as a disaster is a
relative new issue.
The Solar System
Inner Terrestrial Planets
Climate of the Inner Planets
• Mercury
– 0.4AU, 0.055EM: temperature -200 to 400oC
• Venus
– 0.7AU,0.815EM: 90 times atmospheric
pressure, 460oC
• Earth
– 1AU, 1EM, 1 atm., Mean Temperature 14oC
• Mars
– 1.5AU, 0.107EM, Temperature -133 to 0oC
with a mean of -63oC
Why the climate of the earth is
so agreeable?
Because of greenhouse effects!
The Earth
• Surface: 70.8% water, 29.3% Land
• Atmosphere: 78% Nitrogen, 21% Oxygen
and tracer quantity of other gases (for
example: CO2,380ppm; Methane, 700ppb).
• Without Greenhouse effects: the surface
temperature would be -18oC; but now
stands at 14oC.
The Greenhouse Effect
What are greenhouse gases?
The present greenhouse gas rankings
Order of Earth's most
abundant greenhouse
gases are:
• Water vapor
• Carbon Dioxide
• Methane
• Nitrous oxide
• Ozone
• CFCs
greenhouse effect, the
most important are:
• water vapor, 36–72%
• carbon dioxide, 9–
26%
• methane, 4–9%
• ozone, 3–7%
The spectrum of radiation
Who discovered greenhouse
effects?
John Tyndall (1820-1893)
Born: 2 August 1820
Died: 4 December 1893
Nationality: British
Fields: Physics
Institutions: Royal Institution
Known for: Atmosphere,
Infrared radiation.
Tyndall and Greenhouse effects
• Establishes that the principal properties of visible light
can be reproduced for radiant heat, namely reflection,
refraction, diffraction, polarization, depolarization, double
refraction, and rotation in a magnetic field. He referred to
radiant heat as "obscure radiation", "dark waves" or
"ultra-red undulations", as the word "infrared" didn't start
coming into use until the 1880s.
• He measured the infrared absorptive powers of the
gases nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor, carbon dioxide,
ozone, methane, and proved that the Earth's atmosphere
has a Greenhouse Effect.
Svante August Arrhenius (1859-1927)
Born :19 February 1859
Died : 2 October 1927
Notable awards
Nobel prize for Chemistry (1903)
Arrhenius’s greenhouse gas law
• CO2 is the driver regulating the ice age.
• If the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric
progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase
nearly in arithmetic progression:
 C 
 ; C = C O 2 co n cen tra tio n ; T , tem p era tu re.
C
 o 
 T =  lo g 
• A warmer earth would be needed to feed the rapidly increasing
population.
• Now we know that orbital forcing sets the timing for ice
ages with CO2 acting as an essential amplifying
feedback but not the driver.
CO2 Observations
Charles David Keeling (1928-2005)
Born: April 20, 1928
Died: June 20, 2005
Major: Chemistry
Honor: National medal of Science
2002
The Keeling Curve
Plate Tectonic
Very long term climate changes
Alfred Lothar Wegner (1880-1930)
Born: November 1, 1880, Berlin
Died : November 1930
Clarinetania, Greenland
Nationality: German
Fields: Meteorology, Geology
and Astronomy
Modern reconstruction of Pangaea
ca. 255 million years ago
Paleo-climatic data
Land Mass Distribution
Geological time scale changes
Atmospheric CO2 IPCC Assessment 4 2007
Oxygen and Carbon records
Deep sea foraminifera isotope records :Zachos et al., 2001，Science
"The Garden of Eden" by Thomas Cole (c.1828)
Orbit perturbations
Milankovitch scales
Milutin Milankovitch (1979-1958)
Born: May 28, 1879, AustriaHungary
Died: December 12, 1958
Belgrade, Serbia, Yugoslavia
Nationality: Serb
Fields: civil engineering and
geophysics
Earth Orbital Parameters
Milankovitch time scales
Observation data for long term climate variability
EPICA Dome C
European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica
60
°S
Two cores in the Dome C region:
70
Dronning
Maud Land
°S
1. Core EDC96, started in 1996,
is 788 m length.
Berkner
Island
Dom e F
80
°S
2. Core EDC99, started in 1999,
reached a depth of 3260 m,
and an estimated ice age of
801,000 years.
Cores EDC96 and EDC99 were
drilled 10m apart both are
located at 75°06'S, 123°24'E.
Byrd
Vostok
Law Dom e
Dom e C
Siple Dom e
Taylor
Dom e
0km
1,000km
2,000km
Paleo-climatic Ice Core Data: Temperature led CO2!!
EPICA Dome C Ice Core
6
non‐stationary
4
non‐linear
Proxy Temperature:  C
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
0
100
200
300
400
500
Time: K-Years Before Present
600
700
800
1
Dome-C Ice Core
Greenland
Reconstructed
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
Time: K-Years
600
68.1%
79.4%
56.8%
‐41.3%
67.3%
700
800
Closest
A look into the future
A look into the future
Observations
• Milankovitch time scales are the dominant
periods in the recent climate data when the
proxy data quality is good.
• There seems to be additional ultra long periods
of 1 and 2.5 Ma.
• The eccentricity, obliquity and procession could
account for near 60% of the climate variations.
• Ice Age is next: That is disastrous!