Download NTUA_2_CYPADAPT_COP18_Doha

Dr Maria Zachariou dodou
National Technical University of Athens
[email protected]
DOHA 6 December 2012
Project Target : a strategic plant for adaptation
 Will climatic changes effect the Region and how?
 What are the existing Policies ?
 Are there any Nation or Regional adaptation plants in
place?
 What are the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus
 What are the measures taken and what sectors will be
most vulnerable?
FIRST STEP
Review the observed climatic changes
and Predictions
observed changes to climate worldwide
Glacier National Park and Reserve's White Thunder Ridge
August 1941 (left) and August 2004 (right) (USGS, 2004) 1941-
Mediterranean and the Middle East
Regional Climatic models shows that Eastern
Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are
likely to be greatly affected by
 Decrease in precipitation
 increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts
 Increase temperature
 Increase hot weather conditions
 Increase in sea surface temperatures
 Warming Levantine Basin at average rate 0.065oC per year.
 Mediterranean have been rising about twice as much as those of the
global oceans)
sea surface temperature (SST) 1996-2011
.
Future Climate– RR Decrease in precipitation
strongest drying is expected
in the eastern Mediterranean
and North Africa:
 ‒10% to ‒25% in 2010-2039
 ‒20% to ‒35% in 2040-2069
 ‒30% to ‒50% 2070-2099.
Turkey and the Caucasus may become
Future Climate– Increase temperature
JAA
The regional warming will be gradual
1-3°C in the near-future (2010-2039)
, 3-5°C in the mid-century period
3.5-7°C by the end of the century
Future Climate Increase hot weather conditions
PRESENT
Hot days S-EMME,
such are common
occurring up to 5
months/year (Gulf
region).
FUTURE
TX>35oC, S-ΕΜΜΕ are
expected to face severe
warm conditions with 2
months additional of
hot days/year
Future Climate– Increase hot weather
conditions
DJ
JA
F
A
highlights the
exceptional
warming
expected in the
EMME region.
minimum temperature
minimum average
temperature will
increase
Decrease precipitation in Cyprus Annual average precipitation
(mm) year 1901-02 till 2007-08
Decrease precipitation in Cyprus annual mean precipitation in
Cyprus for the period 1905 to 2005
Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus
ranks first
Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first
Increase temperature annual mean air temperature (oC) from
1892 till 2010 in Nicosia Pashiardis, 2011
SECOND STEP
Existing national and regional
adaptation strategies
Existing national and regional adaptation
strategies worldwide
 58 national strategies on adaptation to climatic
change (13 NAPs and more than 45 NAPAs) have been
overview to identify countries that
have developed adaptation strategies and
share the same challenges and characteristics with
Cyprus
Adaptation plans examined
Focus on Mediterranean countries
 Finland
 France
 Spain
 Malta
 Tunisia
17
Cyprus: Similar challenges and characteristics
 Mediterranean basin.
 Water stress
 rely heavily on the desalination
 arid and semi-arid areas
 Decrease in precipitation
 Coastal erosion - (large coastlines) (coastal economic




development)
Energy: Increase energy requirements /Malta and Cyprus
are highly energy dependent countries / oil imports
Tourism: ( increase in temperature ,/heat waves.
Forests: increased forest fire risks
Agriculture (declined)
A Strategic Plan should be in conformity
with the policies
WHAT ARE THE EXISTING POLICIES?
WHAT ARE AIMING?
Within the scope of the project the worldwide and
The European policies related to climatic
changes and adaptation were examined and
assessed
Policies related to climatic changes are Aiming to
 Mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
(primarily focused in the past) and to
 adapt to the adverse impacts of climate in order
to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human
systems.
 All policies outlined were examined and assessed
in relation to the adaptation strategy to be
developed in Cyprus
Existing policies on climate change worldwide
 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC). Rio de Janeiro 1992
( foresees that all contracting parties
 Develop appropriate and integrated plans for adapting to the
impacts of climate change
 Take into account f climate changes into the national policies)
 Montreal Protocol
 Kyoto Protocol –Japan 1997
 (reduce their GHG emissions)
Existing policies on climate change worldwide
 Nairobi Work Programme 2006 ( to support action
towards climate change adaptation )
 Bali Road Map 2007
 .(Bali Action Plan, structured upon five pylons , (i) shared vision,
(ii) mitigation, (iii) adaptation,(iv) technology and (v) financing
 Cancún agreements Mexico 2010.
 commitment for a maximum rise of 2oC / diffusion of new
innovative climate-friendly technologies /establishment of a
“Green Climate Fund”
 Durban Platform UNFCCC South Africa, 2011
 Extend the Kyoto Protocol /New reduction agreement
EU Legislation and policies
EU legislation on climate is rather vast and it is
mainly focused on to the following areas:
 Greenhouse Gas Monitoring and Reporting
 EU emissions trading system
 Effort sharing decision
 Carbon capture and storage
 Transport/Fuels
 Ozone layer protection
 Fluorinated gases
EU Legislation and policies
 the European Climate Change Program (ECCP).
 (2000-2004) second ECCP (2005
 EU Climate and Energy Package2007
 Other Complementary legislation:
 Green and White Paper on adaptation
 Green Paper “ Forest
 “Climate Change and Water, Coasts and Marine
Issues” (2009) document
Legislation and policies examined
 “Climate Change and Water, Coasts and Marine Issues”
(2009) document(accompanying White Paper)
 White Paper “Together for Health: A strategic
approach for the EU 2008-2013 (2007)
 Green Paper “ Forest protection and information in the
EU: preparing forests for climate change
 Communication from the Commission to the European
Parliament and the Council on
 the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the
European Union” 2007
 “Halting the loss of biodiversity 2010 – and beyond (2006
EU Integrated Maritime
 Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection 2006
 European Environment and Health Action Plan 2004-
2010
EU Legislation and policies examined
 Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC
 - Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in
Europe (2002/413/EC)
 Water framework Directive 2000/60/EC
 Floods Directive [2007/60/EC
 Effort Sharing Decision. 406/2009/EC,
 sets annual emission limits for 2020 to each Member
State ranging from -20% to +20% compared to the 2005
levels,/ Cyprus allocated reduction target of 5%.
 -Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
 http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-
content/uploads/DELIVERABLE1.3.pdf
Assessment of impacts and
vulnerability to Climate change
for the main economic sectors
of Cyprus
Vulnerability = Impacts – Adaptive capacity
Impacts = sensitivity X exposure
 Sensitivity degree to which a system is affected by climate changes,
 exposure is the degree to which a system is exposed to climate changes and
their impacts
 Principal aim was to identify the relevant
 key impacts
 Adaptation measures
 Identify Indicators relevant to each sector.
 Although there were no sufficient data to
evaluate all indicators an attempt was made to
asses the vulnerability
Assessment of impacts
 based on their
magnitude,
 timing,
distribution,
persistence and
 reversibility of impacts
 Indicators (Sensitivity, exposure and adaptive
capacity) are evaluated on a 7-degree scale ranging
from “none” to “very high”.
Assessment of vulnerability
Water resources,
Soils,
Agriculture,
Forests,
Tourism
Coastal zones,
Biodiversity,
Energy,
Fisheries and aquaculture
Public Health,
Infrastructure
11 sectors
30
Main Climatic Factors
 Increase in temperature
 Decrease in precipitation
 Increase in frequency of extreme events
 heat waves
 hail
droughts
 Floods
 Increases in CO 2
 Increase in atmospheric O3
 Sea level rise
 Result in most severe impacts in Cyprus
Vulnerability was assessed for the following impacts
WATER RESOURCES
 Water availability (High)
 Water quality (moderate to High)
 Floods
 Increase in frequency of Droughts (High)
 AGRICULTURE
 Crop yield (Moderate High)
 Soil fertility
 Pests and diseases (not evaluated)
 Damages to crops from extreme weather events
(Moderate)
 Livestock productivity (not evaluated)
 Costs for livestock catering (not evaluated)
Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact
categories
TOURISM
 Warmer summers (moderate)
 Warmer winters
 Heat waves
 Water availability (Moderate
 Storms, waves and floods
 Biodiversity attractions
 Coastal erosion
FORESTS
Dieback of tree species, insect attacks and diseases
(High)
 Fires (Moderate)
 Floods, wind throws and storm damages
 Forest growth (not evaluated)
Vulnerability was assessed for the following
impact categories
 SOILS
 Soil erosion (by wing and/or rain water) (Moderate
 Landslides
 Contamination (heavy metals, nitrates, phosphates, al
saturation)
 Soil Stalinization - sodification
 Desertification (High)
 FISHERIES
 Quantity and diversity of fish stocks (not evaluated)
 Fish stock physical environment (not evaluated)
 Cost implications for fishermen (not evaluated)
 INFRASTRUCURE
 Infrastructure damage due to floods (Urban Sea Floods)
 Infrastructure damage due to landslides (not evaluated)
Vulnerability was assessed for the following impacts
BOIDIVERSITY
Distribution of plant species in terrestrial ecosystem (M)
Distribution of animal species in terrestrial ecosystem (M)
Marine biodiversity (not evaluated)
COASTAL ZONES
Coastal storm flooding and inundation (not evaluated)
Coastal erosion (Moderate
Degradation of coastal ecosystems (not evaluated)
ENERGY
Renewable energy yield
 Efficiency of thermal power plants; and
 Demand for electricity and cooling/ heating
Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categories
 PBULIC HEALTH
Direct impacts:
 . Deaths and health problems related to heat waves and hig
temperatures, (Moderate
 Deaths and injuries from floods/storms,
 Deaths and injuries from landslides and
 Deaths and injuries from fires.
Indirect impacts:
 Vector-borne and rodent-borne diseases,
 Water- borne and food-borne diseases,
 . Climate-related effects upon nutrition,
 Air pollution related diseases.
 http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wpcontent/uploads/DELIVERABLE1.2.pdf
examples
 Assessment of Overall vulnerability to
Climate change for the main
economic sectors of Cyrus
Overall vulnerability assessment of the water resources in
Cyprus to climate changes
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
Overall vulnerability assessment of soil resources in Cyprus to
climate changes
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the soil resources of Cyprus
Overall vulnerability assessment of forests in Cyprus
to climate changes
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the forests of Cyprus
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the forests of Cyprus
Annex I: Vulnerability scores for all Impacts
Annex I: Vulnerability scores
Annex I: Vulnerability scores
Annex I: Vulnerability scores
Annex I: Vulnerability scores
THANK YOU
EXAMPLE
Assessment of the vulnerability of
Water Resources
Relationship between observed climate changes and
IMPACTS ON THE WATER SECTOR
Increased temperature
 Increased water temperatures
 Increase in evaporation
 Increased evapotranspiration

Increase in surface water temperature
 Increased algae growth ( eutrophication /loss of fish)
 Prolonged lake stratification / depletion of oxygen
 Salinisation of water resources
Relationship between observed climatic changes and
IMPACTS ON THE WATER SECTOR
Decreased precipitation, including increased droughts
 Decrease in runoff
 Reduction Water availability
 Lower replenishments rates (lower groundwater
levels)
 More widespread water stress
 Increased water pollution and deterioration of
water quality
 Decreased rates of groundwater recharge
 Stalinization of coastal aquifers
Relationship between observed climate changes and
IMPACTS ON THE WATER SECTOR
Increase in heavy precipitation events Flooding
 Adverse effects in quality of surface water and
groundwater
 Contamination of water supply
 Lower replenishment rates in the aquifers of
the mountain areas due to steep slopes
Sea level rise
 Stalinization of coastal aquifers)
 Flooding of infrastructure
 MEASURES (ADAPTIVE CAPACITY) _WATER RESOURCES
 Cyprus although have not developed a Strategic plan for
adaptation ,the fact that is experiencing a water
shortage for the last 40 years, obliged it to implement
policies and measures to alleviate the problem
 Measures to increase water availability
 Measures for the diversification of water resources
utilization
 Measures to decrease water demand
 Measures for the protection of water quality
 Measures for the protection from floods
 Measures for the protection from droughts
MEASURES _WATER RESOURCES
Increase the Supply of Water Resources
Construction of dams – dam capacity increased from
6 MCM in 1960 to 307 MCM today (No dams 107)
 Installation of conveyance system to transport
water to poorer water resources areas
 Ground water exploration – drilling of boreholes
for domestic and irrigation uses
 Construction of Recharge works
 Use of non-conventional water resources
(desalination, recycling water)
 Secure a safe yield from the storage reservoirs,
taking into account consecutive years of droughts
56
 Reduce and Regulate Demands
• efficient conveyance and distribution systems (leakage
detection, minimize losses, tele-monitoring, telecontrol)
• Metering of water services
• improved on farm irrigation systems (drop irrigation)
• water saving devices
• Quotas (Restriction of the amount of irrigation water)
• Limited duration of water flow to the users
• Increase water charges (rising tarrifs) (to recover cost of WS
but not the cost of irrigation water) (charge over use)
• Establish subsidies (BH, grey water use)
 Undertake campaigns for water conservation
Integrated Water Management- COST 19
Coimbra Sept 2007
57
Measures to Implement a sustainable water use:
 Re-assessment of the water resources, quantity)
 Re-evaluation Water Demand
 Water resources allocation Redistribution of water
resources
Measures against droughts (additional)
 Raising awareness for sustainable water use,
 Notification of users for consumption reduction,
 Increase in desalinated water production,
 Intensive controls of abstractions and leakages,
 Limits to the abstractions from dams,
 Releases from dams only for river ecosystem protection
(not for irrigation)
Vulnerability = Impacts – Adaptive capacity
Impacts= sensitivity X exposure
INDICATORS
58
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
Overall vulnerability assessment of the water resources in
Cyprus to climate changes
More examples
 Assessment of impacts, vulnerability
and adaptation to Climate change for
the main economic sectors of Cyrus
Overall vulnerability assessment of soil resources in Cyprus to
climate changes
Overall vulnerability assessment of the agricultural
sector in Cyprus to climate changes
Overall vulnerability assessment of forests in Cyprus
to climate changes
Overall vulnerability assessment of biodiversity in
Cyprus to climate changes
Vulnerability of Sectors for main Impacts
Annex I: Vulnerability scores
Overall vulnerability assessment of the water resources in
Cyprus to climate changes
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus
Overall vulnerability assessment of soil resources in Cyprus to
climate changes
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the soil resources of Cyprus
Overall vulnerability assessment of the agricultural
sector in Cyprus to climate changes
Overall vulnerability assessment of forests in Cyprus
to climate changes
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the forests of Cyprus
Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate
change impacts on the forests of Cyprus
Overall vulnerability assessment of biodiversity in
Cyprus to climate changes
Overall vulnerability assessment of the coastal zones
of Cyprus to climate changes
Overall vulnerability assessment of the energy sector
in Cyprus to climate changes
Annex I: Vulnerability scores for all Impacts
Annex I: Vulnerability scores
Annex I: Vulnerability scores
Annex I: Vulnerability scores
Annex I: Vulnerability scores
Assessment of past responses to
adapt to the adverse climate change
impacts in Cyprus
 WATER RESOURCES
 Cyprus although have not developed a Strategic plan for
adaptation ,the fact that is experiencing a water
shortage for the last 40 years, obliged it to implement
policies and measures to alleviate the problem
 Measures to increase water availability
 Measures for the diversification of water resources
utilization
 Measures to decrease water demand
 Measures for the protection of water quality
 Measures for the protection from floods
 Measures for the protection from droughts
 AGRICULTURE
 Measures to reduce risk of drought and water
scarcity
 Measures to reduce risk of reduced crop
productivity
 Measures to reduce increased agricultural pests,
diseases, weeds
 Measures to reduce risk of extreme weather events
 Measures to reduce risk for livestock .
 COASTAL AREAS
 . Measures to reduce erosion
 Measures to reduce risk from coastal storm flooding
and inundation
 Implementation of Integrated Coastal Zone
Management Framework
 ENERGY
 Measures for increasing energy supply
 Measures for reducing energy demand
 FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE
 Measures for strengthening the capacity of fishermen
 Measures for the diversification of aquaculture
 SOILS
 Measures to improve soil moisture
 Measures to improve soil fertility
 Measures to reduce coastal erosion
 Measures to reduce soil contamination
 Measures to reduce soil Stalinization
FORESTS
 Measures against dieback of tree species, insects
attacks and diseases
 Measures against forest fires
 PUBLIC HEALTH
 Measures to prevent heat mortality and morbidity
 Measures to control vector- and rodent- borne
diseases
 Measures to control food – borne and water-borne
diseases
 Measures to control air-pollution related diseases
INFRASTRUCTURE
 Measures against flood damage
 Measures against landslide damage
TOURISM
 Measures against decreased tourism during summer
months
 Measures against coastal erosion
 Measures against heat waves
 Measures against drought and water scarcity .
 Measures against deterioration of biodiversity
attractions
 . BIODIVERSITY
 Measures for the conservation of biodiversity
 Measures for the protection of threatened species
 Fauna species
 Measures for controlling invasive alien species
 GAP ANALYSES To identify additional measures
 http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-
content/uploads/DELIVERABLE2.3.pdf
Development of a database
consisting of adaptation measures
applied worldwide
http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wpcontent/uploads/DELIVERABLE2.4.rar
 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC). Rio de Janeiro 1992
 Montreal Protocol
 Kyoto Protocol –Japan 1997
 Nairobi Work Programme 200
 Bali Road Map 2007
 Cancún agreements Mexico 2010.
 Durban Platform UNFCCC South Africa, 2011
 .(Bali Action Plan, structured
EU Legislation and policies
 Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection 2006
 European Environment and Health Action Plan
2004-2010
 Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC
 - Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in
Europe (2002/413/EC)
 Water framework Directive 2000/60/EC
 Floods Directive [2007/60/EC
 Effort Sharing Decision. 406/2009/EC
EU Legislation and policies examined
 the European Climate Change Program (ECCP).
 (2000-2004) (elements for the implementation of the
Kyoto Protocol )and
 second ECCP (2005) further reduction of greenhouse
gas emissions
 EU Climate and Energy Package2007 ( energy targets
for 2020, the so-called "20-20-20" targets )
 Other Complementary legislation:
 Green and White Paper on adaptation( lays down
the observed and expected impacts of climate
change in Europe / suggests that action should be
undertaken)