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Climate Change and Kansas Johannes Feddema Department of Geography The University of Kansas What is Climate Science What is Climate Science • Understanding of the movement of energy into, through, and out of the Earth System • Based on physics through the processes of: • Electromagnetic radiation • Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat) • Convective transport of water vapor Global Average Energy Balance 107 Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235 342 235 Incoming Solar Radiation Shortwave Reflected Shortwave radiation Reflected Shortwave radiation by Clouds Aerosols and Gases Outgoing Long-wave Radiation Long-wave Radiation from Clouds Long-wave Radiation Long-wave Radiation Atmospheric Window from Atmosphere Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Atmosphere 77 Atmosphere Energy Balance: 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30 165 40 67 30 Latent Heat z Longwave Radiation 350 Absorbed by Atmosphere Sensible Heat Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Atmosphere Reflected Shortwave radiation by Surface 78 24 30 Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface 168 Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Surface 390 Surface Energy Balance: 324 Thermal heating Evapotranspiration 168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78 0 Conduction Background: Human Climate Interactions What exactly do we want to simulate? Fire Natural Vegetation? Natural Human caused Agricultural Agriculture De/Re-forestation Plantation Succession Degradation Intensity Crop types Irrigation Fertilizer use Urban Grazing Intensity Pasture Atmospheric Composition Soil Degradation So what are we worried about? Future? Rate – Depends on: response time? feed backs? 2005 Present 0.7 ºC Industrial revolution begins 1958 1900 Rate = +0.7 ºC 100yrs 100 years 1900 Humans develop as species { 5-8 ºC Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC 100yrs 18,000 years Ice Age Domestication of plants and animals Last Glacial Maximum Climate Forcing (Anthropogenic) Source: World Resources 2000-2001 Time Magazine – 9 April 2001 Global Average Energy Balance 107 342 235 235 234 Incoming Solar Radiation Shortwave Reflected Shortwave radiation Reflected Shortwave radiation by Clouds Aerosols and Gases Outgoing Long-wave Radiation Atmosphere Energy Balance: 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30 352 79 326 166 Long-wave Radiation from Clouds Long-wave Radiation Long-wave Radiation Atmospheric Window from Atmosphere Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Atmosphere 77 Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235 40 39 67 30 165 166 Latent Heat z Longwave Radiation 350 Absorbed by Atmosphere 351 1 2 352 Sensible Heat Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Atmosphere Reflected Shortwave radiation by Surface 78 24 30 Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface 168 Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Surface 390 391 Surface Energy Balance: 324 326 Thermal heating 79 Evapotranspiration 79 326 391 168 – 324 = 390 + 24 + 78 + 0 0 Conduction Recent Climate Variable Trends How far back should we look? Sources Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science 301: 182-204. Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science 304: 397–437. Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes 19: 3-5. Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. Press Rothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences 99 (7): 4167-4171. Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today www.scotese.com But it was a different world Extinction of Dinosaurs Permian Crash Terrestrial plants Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice Alaska Russia Observed Russia Alaska Greenland Canada Greenland Simulated Observations Simulated 5-year running mean Scand “Abrupt” transition • Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease • Extent decreases from 70 to 20% coverage in 10 years. Sources NSIDC NCAR IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts Climate Change Science What do we need to know? • Is the climate changing • Observations • Reference conditions • Climate change attribution • What is causing it to change • Climate projections • What does theory tell us about the future Global Climate over the last century Kansas Temperature Changes Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 54.27 degF Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.09 degF / Decade 1895 to 2007 How to lie with Statistics (or maps) Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 54.55 degF Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade 1930 to 2007 Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 54.56 degF Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.53 degF / Decade Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl 1977 to 2007 Global Climate over the last century Kansas Precipitation Changes Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 27.50 Inches Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.22 Inches / Decade 1895-2007 Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 27.62 Inches Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = 0.56 Inches / Decade 1930-2007 Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 28.96 Inches Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.32 Inches / Decade Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl 1977-2007 Kansas Climate projections Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W) Present Day Normal D = 47 S = 304 2050 D = Annual Deficit (mm) S = Annual Surplus (mm) 2100 + 1.5 C all months + 5% Precipitation D = 69 S = 302 + 3 C all months + 5% Precipitation D =107 S = 255 Precipitation Potential Evapotranspiration IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario 3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase 3% annual P increase (summer -3% P) Source: IPCC 2007 J. Feddema University of Kansas + 2 C all months + 0% Precipitation D = 95 S = 246 + 4 C all months + 0% Precipitation D =151 S = 188 Kansas Climate projections Western Kansas (37N, 95W) Potential Evapotranspiration D = 330 S=0 2050 D = Annual Deficit (mm) S = Annual Surplus (mm) 2100 + 1.5 C all months + 5% Precipitation D = 383 S=0 + 3 C all months + 5% Precipitation D =463 S=0 Precipitation + 2 C all months + 0% Precipitation IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario 3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase 3% annual P increase (summer -3% P) Source: IPCC 2007 J. Feddema University of Kansas D = 433 S=0 + 4 C all months + 0% Precipitation D =540 S=0 IPCC Simulations for Kansas NW NC NE SW SC SE Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Temperature Projections 18 17 16 Temperature ( oC) 15 14 13 12 NW KS NC KS 11 NE KS 10 SW KS SC KS 9 Observations 3 Model Projection SE KS 8 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s Decade 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Mean Annual Average Heating DD ( oK) 3500 Heating Degree Day Projections (18 oC base Temp) 3000 2500 2000 NW Kansas NC Kansas 1500 NE Kansas SW Kansas 1000 SC Kansas SE Kansas 500 Observations 3 Model Projection 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s Decade Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Mean Annual Average Cooling DD ( oK) 1800 1600 Cooling Degree Day Projections (18 oC base Temp) NW Kansas NC Kansas 1400 NE Kansas SW Kansas 1200 1000 SC Kansas SE Kansas 800 600 400 200 Observations 3 Model Projection 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s Decade Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Mean Annual Average Growing DD (oK) 3500 Growing Degree Day Projections (10 oC base Temp) 3000 2500 2000 NW Kansas NC Kansas 1500 NE Kansas SW Kansas 1000 SC Kansas SE Kansas 500 Observations 3 Model Projection 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s Decade Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Mean Annual Average Freezing DD ( oK) 450 Freezing Degree Day Projections (0 oC base Temp) Observations 3 Model Projection 400 350 NW Kansas NC Kansas 300 NE Kansas 250 SW Kansas SC Kansas 200 SE Kansas 150 100 50 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s Decade Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Potential Evapotranspiration projections NW KS 1050 NC KS 1000 NE KS 950 SW KS SC KS 900 SE KS 850 800 750 700 650 Observations 3 Model Decade 20 90 s 20 80 s 20 70 s 20 60 s 20 50 s 20 40 s 20 30 s 20 20 s 20 10 s 20 00 s 19 80 s 19 70 s 19 60 s 19 50 s 600 19 90 s Potential Evapotranspiration (mm) 1100 Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Precipitation Projections 1200 Precipitation (mm) 1000 800 600 NW KS 400 NC KS NE KS 200 SW KS Observations SC KS 3 Model Projection SE KS 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s Decade 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Actual Evapotranspiration Trends 1000 Observations 3 Model Projection 900 800 AE (mm) 700 600 500 400 NW KS NC KS 300 NE KS 200 SW KS SC KS 100 SE KS 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s Decade 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s n- 1 Ja 9 5 n- 0s 1 Ja 9 6 n- 0s 1 Ja 9 7 n- 0s 1 Ja 9 8 n- 0s 1 Ja 9 9 n- 0s 2 Ja 0 0 n- 0s 2 Ja 0 1 n- 0s 2 Ja 0 2 n- 0s 2 Ja 0 3 n- 0s 2 Ja 0 4 n- 0s 2 Ja 0 5 n- 0s 2 Ja 0 6 n- 0s 2 Ja 0 7 n- 0s 2 Ja 0 8 n- 0s 20 90 s Ja Evapotranspiration (mm) Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Grid_Point_7_AE and PE 200 180 160 140 120 100 GP_7_AE GP_7_PE 80 60 40 20 0 Time Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Annual Moisture Deficit (mm H 2O) 600 Mean Annual Average Deficit ( mm H2 O) NW KS NC KS 500 Observations 3 Model Projection NE KS SW KS SC KS 400 SE KS 300 200 100 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s Decade 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Annual Moisture Surplus (mm H 2O) Mean Annual Average Surplus (mm H2O) 400 Observations 3 Model Projection NW KS 350 NC KS NE KS 300 SW KS SC KS 250 SE KS 200 150 100 50 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s Decade 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Soil Moisture Trends Soil Moisture level (WHC = 150 mm) 150 Observations NW KS 3 Model Projection NC KS NE KS SW KS 125 SC KS SE KS 100 75 50 25 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s Decade 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s THE END Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models) Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Trends for Kansas 14 90 80 12 70 10 8 50 40 6 30 4 20 2 10 0 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s Decade winter spring summer autumn winter spring summer autumn Temperature (°F) Precipitation (inches) 60 Global Climate Observing System Thermoscope Thermometer Greeks (density and energy) 11th Century Avicenna 15?? -1603 Galileo (thermoscope) 1613 – Segredo/Santorio (thermometer?) 1714 Fahrenheit (Mercury) 1742 Celsius (Centigrade Scale) Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermometer http://inventors.about.com/b/2004/11/16/the-history-behind-the-thermometer.htm www.nature.com http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Rapids/7592/Stevenson.jpg Climate Change Science What is causing climate to change? • Natural processes • Solar processes and Paleo records • Atmospheric composition change • Changes in the carbon cycle • Human induced processes • Atmospheric composition • Land cover effects Natural Forcing over the last decades How to compile long term information Human Impacts Attributing climate change to a cause? • • • • • Solar forcing Volcanic forcing Greenhouse gas forcing Sulfate aerosol forcing (global dimming) Others? Background: The Climate System Climate Models Climate Models R15 T42 T85 T170 Climate Models (300 km) (150 km) (75) km (37 km) Timeline of Climate Model Development Climate Simulation: How good are the models? IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts Climate projections: What is to come? Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007 Climate Simulation: Ocean Response T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO Climate projections: Global Temperature Anomalies relative to 1980-99 IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32 Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data) Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade) Kansas Historical Records Background on Kansas Climate Background on Kansas Climate Future Simulations for Kansas Climate projections Multi-model average precipitation % change, medium scenario (A1B), representing seasonal precipitation regimes, total differences 2090-99 minus 1980-99 Climate projections White areas are where less than two thirds of the models agree in the sign of the change Climate projections Fig. SPM-6 Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions This continues the observed patterns in recent trends Figure 11.12 Figure 10.19 Figure 10.18 Human influence on climate - Perspectives What is missing in these projection for Kansas? Irrigation now covers a significant portion of the state (local cooling; precipitation?) Land use change (local cooling) Urbanization (warming) Past Examples Mesopotamia – change in grazing and forests Greeks – impacts of filling swamps, overgrazing etc. Eastern US – discussions about the effects of deforestation leading to more rain? Sodbusters – “rain follows the plough.” Dust Bowl Source: Glacken 1967 Traces …. http://www.aip.org/ Kansas Temperature Changes: Seasonal Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 53.23 degF Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 degF / Decade Spring Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 55.87 degF Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade Fall Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 76.50 degF Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.04 degF / Decade Summer Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 31.54 degF Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.21 degF / Decade Winter Kansas Precipitation Changes: Seasonal Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 8.14 Inches Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 Inches / Decade Spring Summer Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 6.18 Inches Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade Fall Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 10.64 Inches Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.05 Inches / Decade Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 2.53 Inches Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade Winter Climate Change Science Why the IPCC? • • • • Recognized urgency of the problems Recognized the need to organize our knowledge Need to coordinate experiments Provide reliable information to decision makers Milestones of the WMO 1853 1873 1882 1932 1951 1957 First International Meteorological Conference (standardization of instruments) WMO's predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) established Launch of the First International Polar Year 1882-1883 Launch of the second International Polar Year 1932-1933 WMO established as a specialized agency of the United Nations Launch of International Geophysical Year 1957-1958 Global Ozone Observing System set up 1963 World Weather Watch launched 1976 WMO conducts first international assessment of the state of global ozone 1979 First World Climate Conference held which led to the establishment of the World Climate Programme 1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer 1988 WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established 1989 Global Atmosphere Watch established to monitor atmospheric composition WMO and UNEP initiate the process leading to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1990 Second World Climate Conference initiates the Global Climate Observing System First Assessment Report of the IPCC 1991 WMO/UNEP begin process which led to negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (the 'Earth Summit') leads to Agenda 21 1995 Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1997 El Nino/Southern Oscillation warm episode and severe weather events across the world 1998 Kyoto Conference establishes timetable for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, South Africa) 2007 Bali Conference Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC awarded Nobel Prize Source WMO IPCC Structure TSU = Technical Support Unit IPCC -- Coordinating research efforts IPCC creates infrastructure to coordinate experiments between groups • Standard emissions scenarios • Standard protocols IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts IPCC – Where from here? Develop better information • Include biogeochemical cycles • Better human impacts simulation • More coordinated efforts IPCC – Publishing and conveying knowledge Scenarios for AR4 Scenarios for AR5 AR5 IPCC – Work Flow (b) Parallel approach (a) Sequential approach Emissions & socioeconomic scenarios (IAMs) 1 2 Radiative forcing Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and levels of radiative forcing 1 Climate, atmospheric & C-cycle projections (CMs) 2a Climate projections (CMs) 3 Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (IAV) 4 AR 4 4 Emissions & socioeconomic scenarios (IAMs) 2b 4 3 Impacts, adaptation, vulnerability (IAV) & mitigation analysis AR 5 4 IPCC – What next? Time Line & Critical Path of Scenario Development RCPs Selection, Extension to 2300, Downscaling Development of New IAM Scenarios Continued Development and Application of IAM Scenarios IAM CMC Develops RCP-based Ensemble Runs Integration of CMC Ensembles with IAM NEW Scenarios Story Lines IAV Research Based on AR4 Climate and SRES IAM scenarios Integration Phase 12 month Publication Lag Spring 2013 18 months Fall 2010 Preparatory Phase Fall 2007 Fall 2008 24 months Parallel Phase IAV IAV research based on new CM and IAM scenarios Spring 2012 12 months CMC Model Input Conclusions • Climate Science is still young • It needs to become much more interdisciplinary – – – – – – Biological Sciences Geological Sciences Computer Sciences Geographical Sciences Social Sciences Political Sciences • Ample research opportunities The End Proposed scenario considerations Scenarios for AR5 T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO Global Climate over the last century What will the future bring? Using Models to simulate possible scenarios? Climate projections Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007 Climate projections: GHG Anomalies relative to 1980-99 IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32 Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data) Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade) Global Climate over the last century What about Kansas? Background on Kansas Climate Background on Kansas Climate Sea-ice Concentration: Climatology (1979-1999)… Mixture of Improved Physics and Resolution Climate Change Scenarios: At any point in time, we are committed to additional warming and sea level rise from the radiative forcing already in the system. Warming stabilizes after several decades, but sea level from thermal expansion continues to rise for centuries. Each emission scenario has a warming impact. (Meehl et al., 2005: How much more warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772) Media Attention to Global Warming…Not Sufficient to Change Policies! What is the role of skeptics? What will the new Congress do? What will Kansas Do? Sea-ice Extent in Both NH and SH Climate models can be used to provide information on changes in extreme events such as heat waves Heat wave severity defined as the mean annual 3-day warmest nighttime minima event Model compares favorably with present-day heat wave severity In a future warmer climate, heat waves become more severe in southern and western North America, and in the western European and Mediterranean region Observed Model Future From Meehl and Tebaldi 2005