Download Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Climate Change and Kansas
Johannes Feddema
Department of Geography
The University of Kansas
What is Climate Science
What is Climate Science
• Understanding of the movement of energy into,
through, and out of the Earth System
• Based on physics through the processes of:
• Electromagnetic radiation
• Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat)
• Convective transport of water vapor
Global Average Energy Balance
107
Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance:
342 – 107 = 235
342
235
Incoming
Solar Radiation
Shortwave
Reflected
Shortwave radiation
Reflected
Shortwave radiation
by Clouds
Aerosols
and Gases
Outgoing
Long-wave Radiation
Long-wave Radiation
from Clouds
Long-wave Radiation Long-wave Radiation
Atmospheric Window
from Atmosphere
Absorbed
Shortwave radiation
by Atmosphere
77
Atmosphere Energy Balance:
67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30
165
40
67
30
Latent Heat
z
Longwave Radiation 350
Absorbed by Atmosphere
Sensible Heat
Long-wave Radiation
Emitted by
Atmosphere
Reflected
Shortwave radiation
by Surface
78
24
30
Longwave Radiation
Emmited by Surface
168
Absorbed
Shortwave radiation
by Surface
390
Surface Energy Balance:
324
Thermal heating
Evapotranspiration
168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78
0 Conduction
Background: Human Climate Interactions
What exactly do we want to simulate?
Fire
Natural Vegetation?
Natural
Human caused
Agricultural
Agriculture
De/Re-forestation
Plantation
Succession
Degradation
Intensity
Crop types
Irrigation
Fertilizer use
Urban
Grazing
Intensity
Pasture
Atmospheric
Composition
Soil
Degradation
So what are we worried about?
Future?
Rate – Depends on:
response time?
feed backs?
2005
Present
0.7 ºC
Industrial revolution begins
1958
1900
Rate = +0.7 ºC
100yrs
100 years
1900
Humans develop
as species
{
5-8 ºC
Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC
100yrs
18,000 years
Ice Age
Domestication of plants and animals
Last Glacial Maximum
Climate Forcing (Anthropogenic)
Source: World Resources 2000-2001
Time Magazine – 9 April 2001
Global Average Energy Balance
107
342
235
235 234
Incoming
Solar Radiation
Shortwave
Reflected
Shortwave radiation
Reflected
Shortwave radiation
by Clouds
Aerosols
and Gases
Outgoing
Long-wave Radiation
Atmosphere Energy Balance:
67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30
352
79 326 166
Long-wave Radiation
from Clouds
Long-wave Radiation Long-wave Radiation
Atmospheric Window
from Atmosphere
Absorbed
Shortwave radiation
by Atmosphere
77
Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance:
342 – 107 = 235
40 39
67
30
165
166
Latent Heat
z
Longwave Radiation 350
Absorbed by Atmosphere 351
1
2
352
Sensible Heat
Long-wave Radiation
Emitted by
Atmosphere
Reflected
Shortwave radiation
by Surface
78
24
30
Longwave Radiation
Emmited by Surface
168
Absorbed
Shortwave radiation
by Surface
390
391
Surface Energy Balance:
324
326
Thermal heating
79
Evapotranspiration
79
326 391
168 – 324 = 390 + 24 + 78 + 0
0 Conduction
Recent Climate Variable Trends
How far back should we look?
Sources
Globalwarmingart.com
www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png
Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science 301: 182-204.
Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science 304: 397–437.
Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes 19: 3-5.
Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. Press
Rothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences 99 (7): 4167-4171.
Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today
www.scotese.com
But it was a different world
Extinction of
Dinosaurs
Permian Crash
Terrestrial plants
Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent
Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice
Alaska
Russia
Observed
Russia
Alaska
Greenland
Canada
Greenland
Simulated
Observations
Simulated
5-year running mean
Scand
“Abrupt”
transition
• Gradual forcing results in
abrupt Sept ice decrease
• Extent decreases from 70 to
20% coverage in 10 years.
Sources
NSIDC
NCAR
IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts
Climate Change Science
What do we need to know?
• Is the climate changing
• Observations
• Reference conditions
• Climate change attribution
• What is causing it to change
• Climate projections
• What does theory tell us about the future
Global Climate over the last century
Kansas Temperature Changes
Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 54.27 degF
Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.09 degF / Decade
1895 to 2007
How to lie with
Statistics (or maps)
Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 54.55 degF
Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade
1930 to 2007
Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 54.56 degF
Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.53 degF / Decade
Source
National Climate Data Center
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
1977 to 2007
Global Climate over the last century
Kansas Precipitation Changes
Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 27.50 Inches
Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.22 Inches / Decade
1895-2007
Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 27.62 Inches
Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = 0.56 Inches / Decade
1930-2007
Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 28.96 Inches
Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.32 Inches / Decade
Source
National Climate Data Center
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
1977-2007
Kansas Climate projections
Eastern Kansas
(37N, 95W)
Present Day Normal D = 47
S = 304
2050
D = Annual Deficit (mm)
S = Annual Surplus (mm)
2100
+ 1.5 C all months
+ 5% Precipitation
D = 69
S = 302
+ 3 C all months
+ 5% Precipitation
D =107
S = 255
Precipitation
Potential
Evapotranspiration
IPCC A1B Scenario
Middle of the road Scenario
3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase
3% annual P increase
(summer -3% P)
Source: IPCC 2007
J. Feddema University of Kansas
+ 2 C all months
+ 0% Precipitation
D = 95
S = 246
+ 4 C all months
+ 0% Precipitation
D =151
S = 188
Kansas Climate projections
Western Kansas
(37N, 95W)
Potential
Evapotranspiration
D = 330
S=0
2050
D = Annual Deficit (mm)
S = Annual Surplus (mm)
2100
+ 1.5 C all months
+ 5% Precipitation
D = 383
S=0
+ 3 C all months
+ 5% Precipitation
D =463
S=0
Precipitation
+ 2 C all months
+ 0% Precipitation
IPCC A1B Scenario
Middle of the road Scenario
3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase
3% annual P increase
(summer -3% P)
Source: IPCC 2007
J. Feddema University of Kansas
D = 433
S=0
+ 4 C all months
+ 0% Precipitation
D =540
S=0
IPCC Simulations for Kansas
NW
NC
NE
SW
SC
SE
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Temperature Projections
18
17
16
Temperature ( oC)
15
14
13
12
NW KS
NC KS
11
NE KS
10
SW KS
SC KS
9
Observations
3 Model Projection
SE KS
8
1950s
1960s 1970s
1980s 1990s
2000s 2010s
2020s 2030s 2040s
Decade
2050s 2060s
2070s 2080s
2090s
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Mean Annual Average Heating DD ( oK)
3500
Heating Degree Day Projections (18 oC base Temp)
3000
2500
2000
NW Kansas
NC Kansas
1500
NE Kansas
SW Kansas
1000
SC Kansas
SE Kansas
500
Observations
3 Model Projection
0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Mean Annual Average Cooling DD ( oK)
1800
1600
Cooling Degree Day Projections (18 oC base Temp)
NW Kansas
NC Kansas
1400
NE Kansas
SW Kansas
1200
1000
SC Kansas
SE Kansas
800
600
400
200
Observations
3 Model Projection
0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Mean Annual Average Growing DD (oK)
3500
Growing Degree Day Projections (10 oC base Temp)
3000
2500
2000
NW Kansas
NC Kansas
1500
NE Kansas
SW Kansas
1000
SC Kansas
SE Kansas
500
Observations
3 Model Projection
0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Mean Annual Average Freezing DD ( oK)
450
Freezing Degree Day Projections (0 oC base Temp)
Observations
3 Model Projection
400
350
NW Kansas
NC Kansas
300
NE Kansas
250
SW Kansas
SC Kansas
200
SE Kansas
150
100
50
0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Potential Evapotranspiration projections
NW KS
1050
NC KS
1000
NE KS
950
SW KS
SC KS
900
SE KS
850
800
750
700
650
Observations
3 Model
Decade
20
90
s
20
80
s
20
70
s
20
60
s
20
50
s
20
40
s
20
30
s
20
20
s
20
10
s
20
00
s
19
80
s
19
70
s
19
60
s
19
50
s
600
19
90
s
Potential Evapotranspiration (mm)
1100
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Precipitation Projections
1200
Precipitation (mm)
1000
800
600
NW KS
400
NC KS
NE KS
200
SW KS
Observations
SC KS
3 Model Projection
SE KS
0
1950s 1960s
1970s
1980s 1990s
2000s 2010s 2020s
Decade
2030s 2040s
2050s 2060s 2070s
2080s 2090s
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Actual Evapotranspiration Trends
1000
Observations
3 Model Projection
900
800
AE (mm)
700
600
500
400
NW KS
NC KS
300
NE KS
200
SW KS
SC KS
100
SE KS
0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s
1990s 2000s
2010s
2020s 2030s
Decade
2040s 2050s
2060s 2070s
2080s 2090s
n-
1
Ja 9 5
n- 0s
1
Ja 9 6
n- 0s
1
Ja 9 7
n- 0s
1
Ja 9 8
n- 0s
1
Ja 9 9
n- 0s
2
Ja 0 0
n- 0s
2
Ja 0 1
n- 0s
2
Ja 0 2
n- 0s
2
Ja 0 3
n- 0s
2
Ja 0 4
n- 0s
2
Ja 0 5
n- 0s
2
Ja 0 6
n- 0s
2
Ja 0 7
n- 0s
2
Ja 0 8
n- 0s
20
90
s
Ja
Evapotranspiration (mm)
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Grid_Point_7_AE and PE
200
180
160
140
120
100
GP_7_AE
GP_7_PE
80
60
40
20
0
Time
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Annual Moisture Deficit (mm H 2O)
600
Mean Annual Average Deficit ( mm H2 O)
NW KS
NC KS
500
Observations
3 Model Projection
NE KS
SW KS
SC KS
400
SE KS
300
200
100
0
1950s
1960s 1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s 2020s 2030s
Decade
2040s
2050s
2060s 2070s
2080s
2090s
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Annual Moisture Surplus (mm H 2O)
Mean Annual Average Surplus (mm H2O)
400
Observations
3 Model Projection
NW KS
350
NC KS
NE KS
300
SW KS
SC KS
250
SE KS
200
150
100
50
0
1950s
1960s 1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s 2030s
Decade
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s 2090s
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Soil Moisture Trends
Soil Moisture level (WHC = 150 mm)
150
Observations
NW KS
3 Model Projection
NC KS
NE KS
SW KS
125
SC KS
SE KS
100
75
50
25
0
1950s
1960s 1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s 2030s
Decade
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s 2090s
THE END
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Trends for Kansas
14
90
80
12
70
10
8
50
40
6
30
4
20
2
10
0
0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
winter
spring
summer
autumn
winter
spring
summer
autumn
Temperature (°F)
Precipitation (inches)
60
Global Climate Observing System
Thermoscope
Thermometer
Greeks (density and energy)
11th Century Avicenna
15?? -1603 Galileo (thermoscope)
1613 – Segredo/Santorio (thermometer?)
1714 Fahrenheit (Mercury)
1742 Celsius (Centigrade Scale)
Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermometer
http://inventors.about.com/b/2004/11/16/the-history-behind-the-thermometer.htm
www.nature.com
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Rapids/7592/Stevenson.jpg
Climate Change Science
What is causing climate to change?
• Natural processes
• Solar processes and Paleo records
• Atmospheric composition change
• Changes in the carbon cycle
• Human induced processes
• Atmospheric composition
• Land cover effects
Natural Forcing over the last decades
How to compile long term information
Human Impacts
Attributing climate change to a cause?
•
•
•
•
•
Solar forcing
Volcanic forcing
Greenhouse gas forcing
Sulfate aerosol forcing (global dimming)
Others?
Background: The Climate System
Climate Models
Climate Models
R15
T42
T85
T170
Climate Models
(300 km)
(150 km)
(75) km
(37 km)
Timeline of Climate Model Development
Climate Simulation: How good are the models?
IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts
Climate projections: What is to come?
Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007
Climate Simulation: Ocean Response
T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO
Climate projections: Global Temperature
Anomalies
relative
to 1980-99
IPCC Ch. 10, Fig.
10.4, TS-32
Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models
collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)
Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of
the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per
decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade)
Kansas Historical Records
Background on Kansas Climate
Background on Kansas Climate
Future Simulations for Kansas
Climate projections
Multi-model average precipitation % change, medium scenario (A1B),
representing seasonal precipitation regimes, total differences 2090-99 minus
1980-99
Climate projections
White areas are where less than two thirds of the models agree in
the sign of the change
Climate projections
Fig. SPM-6
Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models
agree in the sign of the change
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
This continues the observed patterns in recent trends
Figure 11.12
Figure 10.19
Figure 10.18
Human influence on climate - Perspectives
What is missing in these projection for Kansas?
Irrigation now covers a significant portion of the state (local cooling; precipitation?)
Land use change (local cooling)
Urbanization (warming)
Past Examples
Mesopotamia – change in grazing and forests
Greeks – impacts of filling swamps, overgrazing etc.
Eastern US – discussions about the effects of deforestation leading to more rain?
Sodbusters – “rain follows the plough.”
Dust Bowl
Source: Glacken 1967 Traces ….
http://www.aip.org/
Kansas Temperature Changes: Seasonal
Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 53.23 degF
Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 degF / Decade
Spring
Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 55.87 degF
Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade
Fall
Source
National Climate Data Center
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 76.50 degF
Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.04 degF / Decade
Summer
Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 31.54 degF
Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.21 degF / Decade
Winter
Kansas Precipitation Changes: Seasonal
Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 8.14 Inches
Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 Inches / Decade
Spring
Summer
Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 6.18 Inches
Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade
Fall
Source
National Climate Data Center
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 10.64 Inches
Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.05 Inches / Decade
Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 2.53 Inches
Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade
Winter
Climate Change Science
Why the IPCC?
•
•
•
•
Recognized urgency of the problems
Recognized the need to organize our knowledge
Need to coordinate experiments
Provide reliable information to decision makers
Milestones of the WMO
1853
1873
1882
1932
1951
1957
First International Meteorological Conference (standardization of instruments)
WMO's predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) established
Launch of the First International Polar Year 1882-1883
Launch of the second International Polar Year 1932-1933
WMO established as a specialized agency of the United Nations
Launch of International Geophysical Year 1957-1958
Global Ozone Observing System set up
1963 World Weather Watch launched
1976 WMO conducts first international assessment of the state of global ozone
1979 First World Climate Conference held which led to the establishment of the World Climate Programme
1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer
1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer
1988 WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established
1989 Global Atmosphere Watch established to monitor atmospheric composition
WMO and UNEP initiate the process leading to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
1990 Second World Climate Conference initiates the Global Climate Observing System
First Assessment Report of the IPCC
1991 WMO/UNEP begin process which led to negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (the 'Earth Summit') leads to Agenda 21
1995 Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
1997 El Nino/Southern Oscillation warm episode and severe weather events across the world
1998 Kyoto Conference establishes timetable for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, South Africa)
2007 Bali Conference
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC awarded Nobel Prize
Source WMO
IPCC Structure
TSU = Technical Support Unit
IPCC -- Coordinating research efforts
IPCC creates infrastructure to
coordinate experiments between
groups
• Standard emissions scenarios
• Standard protocols
IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts
IPCC – Where from here?
Develop better information
• Include biogeochemical cycles
• Better human impacts simulation
• More coordinated efforts
IPCC – Publishing and conveying knowledge
Scenarios for AR4
Scenarios for AR5
AR5
IPCC – Work Flow
(b) Parallel approach
(a) Sequential approach
Emissions & socioeconomic scenarios
(IAMs)
1
2
Radiative forcing
Representative concentration
pathways (RCPs) and levels
of radiative forcing
1
Climate, atmospheric
& C-cycle projections
(CMs)
2a
Climate projections
(CMs)
3
Impacts, adaptation
& vulnerability
(IAV)
4
AR 4
4
Emissions & socioeconomic scenarios
(IAMs)
2b
4
3
Impacts, adaptation,
vulnerability (IAV) &
mitigation analysis
AR 5
4
IPCC – What next?
Time Line & Critical Path of Scenario Development
RCPs
Selection,
Extension to 2300,
Downscaling
Development of New IAM
Scenarios
Continued Development and
Application of IAM Scenarios
IAM
CMC Develops RCP-based
Ensemble Runs
Integration of CMC
Ensembles with
IAM NEW
Scenarios
Story Lines
IAV Research Based on AR4 Climate and
SRES IAM scenarios
Integration Phase
12 month
Publication
Lag
Spring 2013
18 months
Fall 2010
Preparatory
Phase
Fall 2007
Fall 2008
24 months
Parallel Phase
IAV
IAV research based on
new CM and IAM scenarios
Spring 2012
12 months
CMC
Model
Input
Conclusions
• Climate Science is still young
• It needs to become much more interdisciplinary
–
–
–
–
–
–
Biological Sciences
Geological Sciences
Computer Sciences
Geographical Sciences
Social Sciences
Political Sciences
• Ample research opportunities
The End
Proposed scenario considerations
Scenarios for AR5
T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO
Global Climate over the last century
What will the future bring?
Using Models to simulate possible scenarios?
Climate projections
Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007
Climate projections: GHG
Anomalies
relative
to 1980-99
IPCC Ch. 10, Fig.
10.4, TS-32
Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models
collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)
Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of
the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per
decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade)
Global Climate over the last century
What about Kansas?
Background on Kansas Climate
Background on Kansas Climate
Sea-ice Concentration: Climatology (1979-1999)…
Mixture of Improved Physics and Resolution
Climate Change Scenarios:
At any point in time, we are
committed to additional warming
and sea level rise from the
radiative forcing already in the
system.
Warming stabilizes after several
decades, but sea level from
thermal expansion continues to rise
for centuries.
Each emission scenario has a
warming impact.
(Meehl et al., 2005: How much more warming and sea
level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772)
Media Attention to Global Warming…Not Sufficient to Change Policies!
What is the role
of skeptics?
What will the new
Congress do?
What will Kansas
Do?
Sea-ice Extent in Both NH and SH
Climate models can be used to
provide information on changes
in extreme events such as heat
waves
Heat wave severity defined as
the mean annual 3-day
warmest nighttime minima
event
Model compares favorably with
present-day heat wave
severity
In a future warmer climate,
heat waves become more
severe in southern and
western North America, and in
the western European and
Mediterranean region
Observed
Model
Future
From Meehl and Tebaldi 2005