Download Poverty, social protection and climate resilience

Author name
Date
Poverty, social
protection and
climate resilience
Poverty Environment Partnership
May 2015
1
Session plan
Aims of the session:
1. Develop our understanding on how social protection and climate resilience can
contribute to the delivery of poverty eradication.
2. Identify how to better our understanding?
Agenda
Time
Responsibility
Overview of the current state of knowledge on
poverty, social protection and climate
resilience
11.3011.35
Nanki Kaur, IIED, UK
Roundtable pitches
11.3511.45
Umme Rehana, Chantaviphane Inthavang, Clare
Shakya and Simon Anderson
Roundtable discussions
11.4512.30
• Country approaches: Bangladesh
Umme Rehana, Ministry of Finance, Bangladesh
• Country approaches: Lao
Chanthaviphane Inthavang, Department of
Disaster and Climate, Lao
• Bilateral approaches: DFID
Clare Shakya, Department for International
Development, UK
• Assessing the benefits of policy
coherence
Simon Anderson, IIED, UK
Plenary discussion and wrap up:
Identifying next steps
12.301pm
All
Poverty eradication in
the context of climate
change
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS UNDERMINE
PROGRESS IN POVERTY ERADICATION
1.
While poverty has been reduced (esp.
China), vulnerability remains due to rising
inequality, institutional weaknesses and
escalation in severity of shocks.
2.
Climate change impacts exacerbate existing
drivers of poverty (monetary,
multidimensional, capabilities)
3
SUSTAINABLE PATHWAYS OUT OF POVERTY
AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITY : POTENTIAL
BENEFITS OF POLICY COHERENCE
SOCIAL PROTECTION
CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Social protection has evolved
from relatively narrow focus on
safety nets in the 1980s and
1990s to include both short-term
interventions to reduce the impact
of shocks and longer term
mechanisms that work to combat
chronic poverty.
Climate resilience is an evolving
policy response (1990-). It
focuses on reducing vulnerability
and building resilience to current,
medium and long term climate
change.
4
SUSTAINABLE PATHWAYS OUT OF POVERTY AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITY : POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF POLICY
COHERENCE
Variable
Social Protection
Climate Resilience
Benefits of policy
coherence
Risk
•
•
Underlying causes of vulnerability (e.g..
Adaptation deficit)
Current and future CC impacts
•
•
Underlying causes of poverty
e.g. marginalisation
Shocks
More holistic
approach to risk
management
Target
•
Targeted or Universal access
•
•
Targeted or Universal access –
Can support collective action and local
public good creation
•
Better targeting
Instrument
•
•
•
•
Cash & assets transfer
Conditional transfers
Social insurance schemes
Labour market instruments
•
Policy instruments
• Policy, legislative, regulatory and
institutional frameworks
Financial instruments
• Finance enhancing instruments
• Risk management instruments
• Grants
• Loans (concessional and market)
• Capital instruments (equity &
debt)
•
Bilateral and national public
finance
•
Sources of
finance
•
•
•
•
Multilateral, bilateral and national public •
finance
Private finance
Carbon markets
•
Greater access to
policy instruments
to reduce, absorb
or transfer risk
Enhanced access to
different sources of
finance
Policy coherence to date
1.
In theory:
•
2.
Adaptive SP – to climate proof SP gains??
In practice:
•
•
3.
Nat’l Govt responses – av. 2% of GDP on SP across S Asia;
Bi- and Multi-lateral agencies
Examples of 2 emerging approaches to policy coherence
•
Mainstreaming: Ethiopia CSI (single instrument used to achieve dual
objectives)
Layered approach:
•


Ethiopia PSNP Rural Resilience initiative (dual policy response/multiple instruments
to achieve dual objectives)
Kenya – DFID supports both the HSNP (SP) and County Adaptation Fund (CR) in
Wajir
6
QUESTIONS FOR
DISCUSSION
1.What is our understanding on how
social protection and climate
resilience can contribute to the
delivery of poverty eradication?
2.
3.What do we do to better our
understanding?
7
COUNTRY EXPERIENCE
Climate Change and Social Protection
Umme Rehana
Deputy Secretary
Finance Division,
Ministry of Finance
Bangladesh
Outline
 Climate Change Impacts
 Safety-net Programme
 Community Risk Assessment (CRA) Process
 Success
Remaining challenges
10
Climate Change Impacts
Extreme events- leading to disaster
-Frequent floods/droughts/cyclones/ storm surges
Slow events- leading to disasters
-Salinity intrusion, river bank erosion temperature
variability, erratic precipitation
Climate Change also has severe social impacts that
will cause internal and external migration of displaced
community
Drought
Cyclone
Storm surge, salinity
Climate impacts in Bangladesh
Flood
Water logging
Bank
Bank erosion
Erosion
Flood/River Erosion and Cyclone Hazard Maps
Climate Disasters in Bangladesh
Flood
Tropical Cyclone
Storm Surge
Tornado
River Bank
Erosion
Drought
Landslide
Year
1970
1988
1988
1991
1996
1997
1998
2004
2007
2007
2007
2009
2012
2012
Disaster
Death
Cyclone
Flood
Cyclone
Cyclone
Tornado
Cyclone
Flood
Flood
Flood
Landslide
Cyclone(SIDR)
Cyclone (‘alia)
Landslide
Cyclone (Mahasen)
300,000
2,373
5,704
138,868
545
550
918
747
1,071
129
3,406
190
119
14
Social Safety Net Programmes to Combat CC
Impact
 Social Safety Net Programmes
 Employment Generation for the Poor








Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF)
Gratuitous Relief (GR) Food
Gratuitous Relief (GR) Cash
Corrugated Iron Sheet (CI Sheet)
House Building Grants
Blanket
Food For Work (FFW)
Rural Infrastructure Repair and
Maintenance Programme (TR)
Social Safety Net Programmes to Combat CC
Impact
 Emergency
 Employment Food
 Cash Assistant
 Blanket
(VGF)
(GR)
 Risk Reduction
 Cyclone Shelter
 Flood Shelter
 Bridge & Culvert
Project
 Rehabilitation
 House Building




Cash Support
House/Building Shelter
Water Ways
Road Repair
(FFW)
(WFM)
Success of Social Safety Net Programme
(FY 2009-10 to 2013-14)
Allocation
(million US$)
Programme
Number of
Beneficiaries
Employment Generation for the Poor
663.81
Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF)
450.73
4.6 million
Family
Gratuitous Relief (GR) Food
121.55
2 million
Family
Gratuitous Relief (GR) Cash
12.84
143,040
Person
Corrugated Iron Sheet (CI Sheet)
16.12
41,154
Family
House Building Grants
17.39
121,177
Family
Blanket
7.56
1.5 million
Person
555.90
8.3 million
Person
652.25
9.9 milllion
Person
Food For Work (FFW)
Rural Infrastructure Repair
Maintenance Programme (TR)
Total
3.5 million Person
and
2498.15
13.5 million Person
2.7 million Family
Activity-wise Allocation of Social Safety net
Programme
Rural Infractuers Repair
nad Maintance
Programme (TR)
26%
Food For Work
(FFW)
22%
House
Building
Grants
1%
Blanket
0%
CI
Sheet
1%
Employment Generation
for the Poor
27%
Vulnerable Group
Feeding (VGF)
18%
Gratutiou
s Relif
Gratutious Relif
(GR)
(GR) Food
Cash
5%
0%
Social Protection payment system for disasters
MoDMR
Department Of
Disaster
Management
District
Offices
UNO Offices and
Union Parishad
Household
Disaster Prevention: Community Risk Assessment
GIS Application
Social Map
Hazard Map
Risk Map
CRAs for 612 unions of 16 districts
Risk Reduction Interventions come-out
through Community Risk Assessment
Construction of Community
Shelters
Community people raised the
ground height of the village and
protected the entire village with
bamboo and Chaillya
Renovation of existing
shelter
Seed distribution in flood
affected area
Construction of road to go to
Shelter
Construction of dug- well for
drinking water
Success: comparison of disaster impacts
Cyclone
Population Death
1970
>300,000
1991
>140,000
SIDR 2007
3,406
Aila 2009
Mahasen 2013
190
16
Remaining challenges
Despite continued CC-related disasters Bangladesh
economy has continued to grow – poverty has fallen;
major social gains such as gender equity in primary
education, Infant mortality rate decline, life expectancy
increased
Food production continues to grow
But continued Climate Change will literally wash away
such achievements
Thank You
Session 5. Poverty, Social Protection and Resilience
Climate Resilience and Disaster Preparedness in Lao PDR
Presenter:
Chanthaviphone Inthavong
Deputy Director General of Disaster Management and Climate Change Department,
Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment, Lao PDR
2 0 TH P O VE RTY E N V IRON ME NT P A R TN ERSHIP ( P E P): I MP LE ME NT IN G T H E S U STAIN ABLE D E VE LOP MEN T
GOALS ( SDGS) F OR I NCLUSIVE, C LIMATE RESILIENT, G REEN ECONOMIES
26-29TH MAY 2015, THE HUB, EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND
Climate Change and Poverty in Lao PDR
• Lao PDR is very prone to disasters as a result of climate
change related impacts and accidents
• There is an increased frequency of floods, drought,
landslides and typhoons
• Flooding is by far the most prevalent risk. In 2013,
224,200 people in 32,356 Households across five
provinces were affected
Hazard contribution to Average Annual Loss in Lao (1990-2014)
Mortality
Combined Economic losses
National Polices, Climate Change, and
Disaster
•
State Reserve Fund Decree
•
National Strategy and Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change – focus
in assessing CCA and CCM in agriculture, forestry, water resources, and
health sectors
•
Mainstreaming CC and DRR into 8th National Socio-Economic Development
Plan (output and M&E Framework).
•
Mainstreaming into other sector policies, law and regulations such as:
infrastructure, energy and education sectors.
•
Development of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change (on-going)
and risk profiles
Implementation Programmes
•
Most disaster work in Lao focuses on “response”
•
Good national food/seed stock reserves – part of food security cluster
•
Some communities contribute to a social fund for disaster prevention and control
(20-60 cents per household/year) managed by the provincial authority
•
Good level of community involvement for hazard vulnerability and capacity
assessments to calculate risk (these are typically community driven)
•
Community disaster management committees functional
•
Ministry of Education School Safety initiative - curriculum on disaster, what to do,
what causes disasters, links to environmental sustainability, drills
Continued…
•
Improving the Resilience of the Agriculture Sector to Climate Change Impacts
•
Effective Governance for Small-Scale Rural Infrastructure and Disaster
Preparedness in a Changing Climate (Climate risk ready infrastructure)
•
Second National Communication on Climate Change
•
Integrated Disaster and Climate Risk Management Project
•
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action
•
Intended Nationally Determent Contribution
•
Community based Village Disaster Management Plans and early warning system
development
Challenges
•
Mainstreaming climate change and disaster risk reduction into sector polices,
implementation and enforcement remain a challenge
•
New ministry leading on disaster (no mandate defined as yet)
•
Disaster declaration process not formalized
•
Coordination from International community on support programmes
•
Government capacity to manage funds in the three key areas of disaster risk
reduction
•
Market forces on slash and burn on hillsides = landslides. Also flash floods from hydro
•
Community capacity to adapted to climate change.
•
Lack of awareness about disaster risks at many levels
•
Limited public finances allocated to social protection
Thank you
BILATERAL APPROACHES
DFID’s 3 missions to build
resilience
from overlapping objectives to layers of a
coherent framework
Clare Shakya, Africa Regional Dept, DFID
Weather shocks are a driver of poverty
& humanitarian responses are slow and expensive
Household
food supply
approx. -2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Months
Drought
Lost
harvest
Request for assistance
Emergency appeals aid
delivered
(cash & food aid)
Coping mechanism
Short term
Draw on reserves
Reduce
food intake
Long term
Sell productive assets
Loss of life
Source: IFPRI Cost-Benefit-Analysis, 2012; BCG analysis
many coping mechanisms have long term impacts
Effects from food
shortage
(3-4 months before hum
response)
Malnutrition of
children
Loss of productive
assets
Long-term consequences
Evidence
Irreversible
underdevelopment &
disabilities, e.g.
• Lower height
• Slowed mental
development
• Blindness
14%
Reduced lifetime earnings due
to health problems and lack of
education1
20%
of lost DALYs2 in developing
countries derive from
malnutrition during childhood
Livestock / machinery
sold, impacting next
years' harvests
30%
Reduced cattle holdings even
10 years after drought3
10%
Lower economic growth
aggregated over 20 years due to
loss of assets1
1. Evidence from Zimbabwe 2. DALY: disability-adjusted life years 3. Evidence from Ethiopia
Note: EMOP = Emergency appeal Operations
Source: IFPRI Cost Benefit Analysis, 2012; BCG analysis
Tackling the grand challenge:
common interests of social protection; disaster
risk reduction; climate adaptation
Transform
Transitory poor and vulnerable
(poor and near-poor)
Poverty
line
Economically active poor
Chronic poor
Protect Prevent Promote
Escaping poverty traps and the intergenerational cycle of poverty
Tackling shocks (weather, health, prices) to reduce numbers falling back
into poverty
Massive increase in effort
(eg scale up of cash transfers)
2500.00
Africa Cash Transfer Programmes
USD Millions
2000.00
Year
Countries Programmes
2000
9
21
2012
41
245
UNICEF
1500.00
WB-IDA
EU
Other G-7
1000.00
US
UK
500.00
0.00
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Range of SP/DRR/CCA mechanisms:
isolated, layered or combined
• Social protection schemes:
– with shock response mechanism (Sahel Adaptive Social Protection;
Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Programme; Kenya Hunger Safety Net
Programme; Tanzania SP; Zim Resilience Fund)
– Or an explicit focus on drought/flood resilience (Uganda SP; Moz SP)
• Landscape & watershed management: pasture & water
management; soil and water conservation; (Kenya Ada Consortium;
Ugandan Karamoja Resilience; Mozambique SP; BRACED; PSNP)
• Livelihoods diversification (Malawi ESRP; BRACED; Uganda Karamoja
but also many other livelihoods/markets progs)
• Climate information (Kenya Ada Consortium; Uganda Karamoja
Resilience; BRACED)
• Adaptation - or disaster - planning and funds (Kenya Ada
Consortium, Ada Learning Programme, BRACED)
• Multi year humanitarian (Sahel’s PHASE, South Sudan…)
• Insurance (sovereign risk - Africa Risk Capacity; household risk Kenya Livestock Insurance)
DFID Ethiopia’s lava lamp: combining interventions
to tackle poverty & manage shocks
SHOCKS
National Poverty Line:
ETB 1075 Birr (39%)
BUILD RESILIENCE
WB Poverty line:
$2 per Day (80%)
Social protection
Food Insecure
(12-14m)
Risk Financing
Seasonal vulnerability
Livelihoods Threshold
Up to 8m
Survival Threshold
Humanitarian
DFID Kenya’s lava lamp layers
HSNP: scalable SP
• Arid countries: poor, food insecure, drought prone &
marginalised
• Human and economic costs to drought high
• Traditional food aid responses costly and slow
• HSNP: existing cash transfer system can be used for
early, no regrets, emergency CT in response to
drought shocks
• Jan 2015
– Design decisions for HSNP scalability finalised
– Infrastructure in place to respond: 4 HSNP counties
– Platform to reach over 1.5m people with emergency
CTs, more will be added over time.
• April 2015
– first pay outs to 0.5m people…
• A huge success…
• But in an Ada Consortium county next door, no
emergency response needed, thanks to reinstating
traditional management system of grazing and water
Another grand challenge:
layering financial instruments
Disaster
Risk
Financing
&
Insurance
ODA: poverty
reduction &
climate
finance
Development investments that consider
climate shocks, improve NR management…
Risk
reduction
Africa Risk Capacity – one risk layer, in need of scalable
instruments
Making progress on the grand
challenges… but a fair amount to do…
• Need for evidence of what works
• & what is most cost effective
– Early days for evidence on most mechanisms
– Evidence of value of combining & layering more
challenging still
• Coherent national frameworks for resilience
mechanisms
– To coordinate donors and sectoral ministries behind
• Coherent national frameworks for financial
instruments
– Linking types of finance to different layers of risk
Poverty eradication in the
context of climate change
Ideas on how to assess synergies among social protection
provision and support to climate resilience
[email protected]
Household level outcomes of climate adaptation will differ across the
phases of climate challenge and determined by people’s adaptive
capacity and the relative strength of the enabling environment
Combining social protection and
support to climate resilience.
But also social and basic service
provision
Benefits from climate resilience initiatives
strong
stepping up from climate
vulnerability but not out of
chronic poverty risk
stepping out of poverty
with reduced climate risks
hanging in with
high poverty and
climate risks
weak
dropping off – climate
induced severe poverty
stepping up from
of chronic poverty
but not out of
climate risks
low
high
Benefits from poverty eradication measures incl. social protection
Assessment through
the quantification of
outcomes at HH level
from combinations
of social protection
and climate
resilience
Assessing SP x CR effectiveness – ‘fitting into the same glove’
SP as cash
transfers
Adaptive
social
protection
Weather
related
triggers of
transfers
‘Good fit’ effectiveness drivers:
• Use of same infra-structure i.e.
registration database, payments system,
M+E etc.
• Single governance structure i.e. local
people in targeting and grievance
processes
• Institutional framework i.e. main line
ministry
• Climate smart transfers i.e. timeliness
and targeted
Assessing SP x CR effectiveness – ‘hand over hand’
SP – form
selected
for context
> targeting
>
graduation
CR - local
climate
adaptation
planning
>
governanc
e
Transform
> reach up
Povert
& draw
y line
down
Protect Preven
t
Promot
e
‘Synergy’ effectiveness drivers:
• SP – protects; CR – prevents and
promotes
• Graduation from SP into climate
resilient local economy
• Combined approach to address
both idiosyncratic and covariate
risks
• Ease of specialised management
• Safety-net transformed into risk
management framework
Experiences from the Tracking Adaptation Measuring
Development initiative http://www.iied.org/tracking-adaptationmeasuring-development-tamd
• Work from the top-down to identify and assess
institutional changes in risk management
• Work from the bottom-up to understand
developmental outcomes and differentiation
• Fully consultative use of theories of change to best
identify domains and indicators
• Use developmental parameters, adjusted for risk factor
challenges, to reveal resilience of lhds, enterprises,
local economies
• Convene capacities and develop bespoke solutions
Thank you – questions welcome
[email protected]
SUSTAINABLE PATHWAYS OUT OF POVERTY AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITY : POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF POLICY COHERENCE
Variable
Social Protection
Climate Resilience
Benefits of policy
coherence
Risk
•
•
Underlying causes of vulnerability (e.g..
Adaptation deficit)
Current and future CC impacts
•
•
Underlying causes of poverty
e.g. marginalisation
Shocks
More holistic
approach to risk
management
Target
•
Targeted or Universal access
•
•
Targeted or Universal access –
Can support collective action and local
public good creation
•
Better targeting
Instrument
•
•
•
•
Cash & assets transfer
Conditional transfers
Social insurance schemes
Labour market instruments
•
Policy instruments
• Policy, legislative, regulatory and
institutional frameworks
Financial instruments
• Finance enhancing instruments
• Risk management instruments
• Grants
• Loans (concessional and market)
• Capital instruments (equity &
debt)
Focus of
intervention
•
•
•
Risk reduction
Risk absorption
Risk transfer
•
•
•
Enabling environment
Mainstreaming climate resilience
Direct investment
•
Enhanced access to
opportunities
Sources of
finance
•
Bilateral and national public
finance
•
Multilateral, bilateral and national public •
finance
Private finance
Carbon markets
Enhanced access to
different sources of
finance
•
•
•
•
•
Greater access to
policy instruments