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SoE 2011 – Antarctic chapter overview
This presentation is one of a series of Australia State of the
Environment 2011 (SoE 2011) report presentations given by
SoE Committee members and departmental staff following
the release of the SoE 2011 report.
This material was developed as part of an oral presentation.
The full report should be referred to for understanding the
context of this information.
For more information please refer to:
http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/index.html
Or contact the SoE team via email:
[email protected]
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New cover page
Presentation – SoE 2011 Antarctic chapter overview
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Photo: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft
State of the Environment reporting
 A report on the Australian environment must be tabled in
Parliament every five years
 No current regulations regarding scope, content or process
 All reports so far written by independent committees
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Purpose of SoE 2011
Provide relevant and useful information on
environmental issues to the public and decisionmakers...
… to raise awareness and support more informed
environmental management decisions …
… leading to more sustainable use and effective
conservation of environmental assets.
www.environment.gov.au/soe
State of the Environment 2011 Committee
Chair
Tom Hatton (Director, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country)
Members
Steven Cork (research ecologist and futurist)
Peter Harper (Deputy Australian Statistician)
Rob Joy (School of Global Studies, Social Science & Planning, RMIT)
Peter Kanowski (Fenner School of Environment & Society, ANU)
Richard Mackay (heritage specialist, Godden Mackay Logan)
Neil McKenzie (Chief, CSIRO Land and Water)
Trevor Ward (marine and fisheries ecologist)
Barbara Wienecke – ex officio (Australian Antarctic Division, DSEWPaC)
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What’s new in 2011?
 Improved relevance to decision makers
 More detailed information
 Discussion of the major drivers of change
 Wide range of credible resources used in the analyses
 Report-card style assessments of condition, pressures and
management effectiveness
 Discussions of current resilience and future risks
 Outlooks
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Quality and credibility
 Independence – written by an independent committee with
relevant expertise, tasked with advocating for ‘accurate, robust
and meaningful environmental reporting and identification of
policy issues, but not for any particular policy position’
 Authors sought best available evidence from credible sources
 Extensive consultation
 Workshops to determine consensus in expert opinion where
evidence low
 Transparency about quality of evidence and level of consensus
 Peer reviewed (47+ reviewers of chapters and supplementary materials)
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SoE 2011 Products
Full report – hard copy and online
 Summary with 17 headlines
 Nine theme chapters – each with key findings
 Report cards
In-Brief – hard copy and online
 50 page summary of full report
Additional online materials




Commissioned reports
Workshop reports
Additional tables and figures
Peer review information
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Assessment summaries in the report
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Drivers chapter – context for rest of SoE
 How are a
changing
climate,
population
growth and
economic
growth creating
pressures on
our
environment?
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SoE 2011 Headlines
 17 headlines
in summary
chapter give a
high level
overview of
the big issues
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Key Findings (in theme chapters)
 ‘key findings’
give an
overview of
more specific
conclusions
for each
theme
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What is the general state of the environment?
 Much of Australia is in good condition shape or improving


Wind erosion has decreased

Some major threats to vegetation cover are lessening

Water consumption has fallen considerably in recent years

Many urban air pollutants are on the decline

Use of public transport is on the rise
Other parts are in poor condition or deteriorating

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing billions of tonnes of ice a year

Soil acidification and pests and weeds are affecting large areas of the
continent

Our natural and cultural heritage continues to be threatened
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Drivers of environmental change
 The principal drivers of pressures on Australia’s
environment—and its future condition—are climate variability
and change, population growth and economic growth
 It is likely that we are already seeing the effects of climate
change in Australia
 The Australian economy is projected to grow by 2.7% per year
until 2050
 Under the base scenario, Australia’s population of 22.2 million
people in 2010 is projected to grow to 35.9 million by 2050
 We have opportunities to decouple population and economic
growth from pressure on our environment
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Persistent pressures on our environment
 Past decisions and practices have left ongoing impacts on
our environment

Introduction of feral animals and weeds

Land clearing

Pollution

Unsustainable water resource management

Intense harvest of fish stocks

Lack of integrated and supported management
 Our changing climate, and growing population and
economy, are now confronting us with new challenges
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About the Antarctic environment chapter
 101 pages
 30 figures and tables
 15 assessment tables
 234 references
Photo: Doug Thost
 8 case studies
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Key findings
 The ozone hole has largely protected East Antarctica from
global warming
 The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at its coastal fringes
 Major regional changes are occurring in Antarctic sea ice
coverage
 The Southern Ocean is getting warmer
 Increased acidification of the Southern Ocean can affect the
base of Antarctic food webs
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Key findings
 Antarctic vertebrates are highly specialised; capacity to adapt
to climate change is unknown
 The terrestrial ecosystems are changing
 The pressure of human activities is increasing
 The natural heritage of Macquarie Island has suffered under
the impact of introduced species, but a large-scale eradication
program is underway
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Introduction
 Antarctica covers an area of about 13.8
million km2, with diverse ecosystems and
habitats, and a unique assemblage of
species
 It is the earth’s coldest, highest, windiest,
and driest continent
 Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are
key drivers of Earth’s oceanic and
atmospheric systems
 The Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT)
makes up 42% of the continent
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Introduction
 The Antarctic Treaty and Antarctic Treaty System provide the framework for
governance of the Antarctic region
 The AAT is administered by the Australian
Antarctic Division of DSEWPaC
 Australia maintains a permanent presence
with 3 continental stations, a station at
Macquarie Island and temporary field
stations

The Antarctic chapter focuses on the AAT,
incl. the subantarctic islands and Southern
Ocean
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State and trends
 Antarctica is showing clear signs of climate change, esp. on
the Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures have risen by
5oC over the last 50 years.
 Slower rate of change in East Antarctica.

Continental ice sheet is getting smaller

Reduced duration of annual sea ice

Increased ocean acidification
Photo: Doug Thost
 Effects include:
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State and trends – Continental ice sheet is getting smaller
Ice mass changes for entire
Antarctic ice sheet (2002-2009)
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State and trends – reduced duration of annual sea ice
Trend map of Antarctic annual
sea ice duration (days/year)
Yellow = basically unchanged
Green = up to 3 days less
Purple = up to 6 days less
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State and trends – increased ocean acidification
Global monthly mean CO2
concentration (2007-2011)
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State and trends – other effects of climate change
 Incursions of alien species into the region, e.g. King crab
(Paralomis elongata), and competition with natives
Photo:Jane Wasley
Photo: Sharon Robinson
 Changes in veg. communities, e.g. Antarctic bryophytes:
well-developed community
moribund bryophytes
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State and trends - vertebrates
 Antarctic species are well adapted to Antarctic conditions;
capacity to adapt to climate change is unknown
 Subantarctic islands have a legacy of introduced species
with high impact, e.g. rabbits on Macquarie Island
 Some populations of seals and penguins that were
slaughtered in the late 19th/early 20th centuries have
recovered
 Greatest threat to seabirds is probably IUU fishing
 Most whale species visiting the Southern Ocean are
on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species
Photo: Nick Rains
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State and trends – natural heritage
 Australia’s two subantarctic island groups (Heard/McDonald
Islands, and Macquarie Island) were added to the World
Heritage List in 1997, and the National Heritage List in 2007
 Australia also manages 11 Antarctic Specially Protected Areas,
and 2 Antarctic Specially Managed Areas

all are currently assessed as being in ‘Good’ condition, except for
Macquarie Island, which is ‘Poor’ but improving
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State and trends – historic heritage assessment summary
Pressures affecting the Antarctic environment
 Antarctica is changing at an increasing rate due to global
warming, esp. West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula, where
temperatures have risen by 5oC over the last 50 years
 Slower change in East Antarctica, though rate expected to
increase
 Resulting increases in temperature and ocean acidification
affecting ecosystems; capacity to adapt unknown
 In certain regions, snow fall is being replaced by rain, altering
ecosystems
 Extreme weather events likely to increase in frequency and
perhaps intensity as planet warms
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Pressures affecting the Antarctic environment
 Human activities in closer proximity:

ca. 53 000 people visited continent in 2010-11

ca. 4000 people work on continent each year, on existing
research bases (4 bases are Australian)

New research stations being built

Tourism growing annually

Visits lead to: — erosion, disturbance of habitats and wildlife
— pollution, introductions of invasive species

Commercial fishing esp. of krill

IUU fishing a significant problem

Pollution elsewhere affects Antarctica
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Pressures affecting the Antarctic environment
 Historic heritage – assessment summary
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“The Antarctic
increasingly will serve as
a barometer of change
and an indicator
of human impact
elsewhere in the globe”
Tony Press, Antarctica and
the future, in The Antarctic:
past, present and future,
Julia Jabour-Green and
Marcus Haward eds, 2001
An iceberg and new sea ice, Antarctica
Photo by Doug Thost
Management effectiveness
-
research & conservation
-
infrastructure
-
commercial tourism & fisheries
-
other activities e.g. private expeditions
Photo: Doug Thost
 The main activities in Antarctica are:
 Management is regulated through the Antarctic Treaty and
CCAMLR (the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine
Living Resources).
 The Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) administers Australia’s
Antarctic program.
 Antarctic research in Australia provides a foundation for
management activities.......
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Photo © Tony Worby, courtesy Australian Antarctic Division
Some of the research.....
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Management effectiveness
 Achievements by Australia include:
participation in international forums of the Antarctic Treaty
System

development of strategy for Antarctica’s Future
Environmental Challenges


reviews and environmental assessments of research
facilities of other countries

a leading role in discussions to improve conservation of
Antarctic marine living resources (as part of CCAMLR)
-
e.g. reducing IUU fishing, and the pursuit of sustainable fishing
practices that minimise seabird bycatch……
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Management effectiveness – case study
 Commercial longline fishing operations killed tens of 1000s of sea
birds every year
 Since 2002, ca. 40 000 white-chinned petrels killed on longlines
set in the southern Indian Ocean
 Birds are attracted by the bait, become hooked, and drown
 Scientists, policy makers and industry worked together,
 Mortality of white-chinned petrels down 95%
Photo: Simon Bennet
developing heavier, integrated weight longlines that sink much
faster, greatly reducing seabird mortality
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Management effectiveness – case study
Mortality of birds in a
2002-2003 study
(Robertson et al. 2006)
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Management effectiveness – assessment summary
 This summarises and assesses:

understanding of the issue(s)

planning

inputs

processes, and

outputs and outcomes
Photo by Graham Robertson
 World Heritage and protected areas - assessed as ‘Effective’ or
‘Very effective’, all with a
trend
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Management effectiveness – assessment summary
 Land use and management

Effective, most are
 Adaptation to climate variability and change

Effective or Partially effective, all are
 Pests and invasive species management

Effective or Very effective, most are
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Resilience
 Organisms and ecosystems in Antarctica have evolved to cope
with severe natural conditions
 However, their level of adaptability to human-induced change
or resilience is complex and difficult to measure
 Therefore, difficult to predict how future climate change will
impact Antarctic ecosystems and species (limited information)
 Several components are changing rapidly (e.g. temperature,
acidification), and there is limited information on:
-
possible interactions of these components
-
whether these changes are overwhelming the adaptive capacity
of biological and physical systems
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Risks
 Key risks to the Antarctic environment are due to human activities,
incl. global population, economic pressures, and the effects of
climate change
 While management can mitigate
many of the population/economic
impacts, climate change will be
the main and uncontrollable driver
of change
Antarctic expeditioner (Greg Hodge) framed by a crevasse
Photo: Doug Thost
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Current and emerging risks – assessment summary
Current and emerging risks – assessment summary
Almost certain
Catastrophic
Current and emerging risks – assessment summary
Almost certain
Catastrophic
Current and emerging risks – assessment summary
Almost certain
Catastrophic
Likely
Catastrophic
Outlook for the Antarctic environment
 At present, Antarctica is still in relatively good condition
 However, the existing pressures on the continent and Southern
Ocean will increase
 Climate change processes will likely alter the physical Antarctic
environment in our lifetime; species must adapt or face extinction
 With so many risks, climate change is a topic of intense ongoing
scientific research and debate, but there are still many data
deficiencies and uncertainties
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Other SoE 2011 content related to the Antarctic environment
 Atmosphere – e.g. ozone layer, greenhouse gases
 Marine environment – e.g. currents, marine jurisdictions
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Intentions and impacts of SoE 2011...
 Based on available information and expert opinion drawn from
sources that are referenced in the report
 Was designed to raise awareness and assist decision-makers
 Highlights current issues that will require management
responses to influence projected trends
 Provides critical information, but can support change only if
decision-makers consider and use it
www.environment.gov.au/soe
For more information
email: [email protected]
To order copies
email: [email protected]
phone: 1800 803 772 or read it online:
www.environment.gov.au/soe
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Photo: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft