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Proposed analytical support for the Danube Region Strategy’s Energy PA Péter Kaderják Director Steering Committee Meeting, PA2 of the EU Strategy for the Danube Region October 28, 2015. Ulm, Germany Defining the 2015 fall -2016 program • Background objectives: ‣ Contribute to Energy Union related (pre)-legislative discussions ‣ Best serve regional energy sector development ‣ Stimulate projects • List of potential topics discussed and narrowed down by Czech and Hungarian colleagues during summer: 1. Monitoring the renewable heat sector in the Danube Region 2. Evaluating the LNG option for the Danube Region 2 1. Monitoring the renewable heat sector in the Danube Region 3 150 km MAIN CONSUMING SECTORS Energy sector Industry Transport 100 mi Million tonnes of oil equivalent 2013* Residential and services Agriculture Other CZ: 43 SK: 17 AT: 33 © d-maps.com Heating and cooling is up to 40% of primary energy consumption in the DR UA: 117 MD: 3 HU: 22 SI: 7 RO: 32 HR: 7 BA: 7 RS: 15 XK: 2 BG: 17 *IEA Energy Balances of OECD and non-OECD countries (2015), without electricity trade ME: 1 4 RES-H provides for close to 50% in RES consumption RES consumption according to NREAPs in 8 DR/EU* countries ktoe RES-H RES-E RES-T Total 2010 20 905 16 241 5 139 42 285 2015 24 510 22 892 5 606 53 008 2020 29 731 29 210 9 289 68 230 • Heat sector gives 50 % of RES consumption in 2010 • RES-H has a crucial role to meet the 2020 targets also in DR countries The role of RES-DH ktoe RES-DH Other RES-H Total RES-H 2010 2329 18 576 20 905 2015 3548 20 962 24 510 2020 6026 23 705 29 731 • District heat gives almost half of the renewable consumption growth in the heat sector *:AT,BG, CZ, DE, HU, RO, SI, SK 5 Proposal: carry out a review phase of renewable heat monitoring in the DR Biomass consumption in EU28 120 100 80 60 40 20 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 0 1990 Gross inland biomass consumption in EU28, million TOE 140 • Present biomass consumption is around 120 mTOE in the EU • According to the European Environmental Agency (2006) the biomass potential is above 190 mTOE • The barrier is not that the EU reached its full biomass potential, but other factors • Regulation of the DH sector is crucial to mobilize the biomass and geothermal potential The proposed project should: • focus on DH regulation and RES incentive schemes • be based on previous results (DR Biomass and Geothermal Action Plans) 6 Objective and proposed Tasks Objective • review the use of renewable heat (RES-H) in the DR countries • focus on the renewable based district heating (DH) sector • identify best practices which help to utilize renewable heat in the district heat sector Task 1: Development of RES-H use in DR countries in the last decade • • • assess the development of the fuel mix of the heat sector in the last decade analyse the demand side of the heat sector, focusing on the development of heat use in the various end user segments such as household, industry, service and other compare the DR countries to find general tendencies and/or identify clusters. Task 2: Analysis of RES DH sector in DR countries • carry out a thorough assessment of the renewable district heat (DH) sector: ‣ analyse the fuel mix development, ‣ assess the present regulation of DH, including the different RES support mechanisms ‣ identify the best regulatory practices that foster the utilization of renewable sources in DH Task 3: Comparing the present RES-H development with the National Renewable Action Plans (NREAPs) • • contrast the actual RES-H development and compare it to the plans indicated in the NREAPs assess per country the sectors that are efficient/inefficient in reaching their interim RES-H target. 7 Expected outcomes • Conclusions to contribution to the Commission’s „Heating and cooling” strategy paper • Policy and regulatory proposals to improve RES utilization in the DH sector in the DR • Produce a DR Working Paper to serve as a basis for a project oriented Workshop on RES-H utilization 8 2. Evaluating the LNG option for the Danube Region 9 Relative attractiveness of European market for LNG improves… LNG flow to Europe 29.0 30 20 15 10 5 23.9 ~21% UTILISATION 25 ~18% UTILISATION Gas flow via LNG, bcm 35 0 2014. JanJuly Current market developments: • Asian gas demand decrease • Drop in oil and in oil-indexed LTC gas prices • Regional gas price convergence • More spot LNG is heading towards Europe • With the current trend European LNG utilization in 2015 might go up to 51 bcm (22% utilization) • Downward pressure on EU spot prices 2015. JanJuly BCM/YEAR 2016 2017 2018 Potential US LNG export to Europe 7.7 16.5 31.8 10 …new LNG export capacities to come online, but… • Declining demand in Europe for the last years • LNG was heading to Asia, European LNG terminals were underutilized 2015: there is a substantial change on the LNG market US LNG pricing is market based - More LNG can be spot traded Australian and US producers enter the LNG market 11 …infrastructure and regulatory constraints limit DR benefits from this development… -weighted average 21,1 21,0 26,5 JP 26,3 19,0 • CSEE price: 2244% over TTF 21,2 22,9 17,4 50,0 17,8 19,7 16,7 19,3 17,0 17,5 18,3 AD 15,8 AU 17,2 BN 17,4 ED 14,5 GQ 13,8 ID 17,4 MY 17,5 NG 13,8 OM 16,0 PE 14,7 QA 15,8 YE 21,2 19,4 18,8 18,1 25,0 21,9 18,4 20,5 20,0 22,6 24,4 24,0 19,4 26,2 27,9 17,4 18,9 TT US 18,1 • Need for additional LNG in SEE or connecting LNGGR to SEE is needed 11,6 DZ 16,9 27,5 Fro 18 20 25 30 Legend To Colo 20 25 30 + 17,0 50,0 50,0 12 …and wholesale gas price divergence might develop within Europe Price divergence in case of falling TTF (LNG) prices in Europe 10 9 8 7 $/MMBtu TTF 6 CR SB 5 BG BiH 4 HU UA 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 13 Proposal: evaluating the LNG option for the Danube Region Objective: evaluate the possible gas market effects of increased LNG regas and related pipeline options for the DR Task 1. Gas demand analysis and outlook for the DR countries - in-depth analysis of gas demand in the last 5 years - more coherent outlook: perspectives for coal-to-gas switch; impact of energy efficiency efforts Task 2. LNG market developments and their impact on the EU gas market - LNG market analysis in terms of production costs, supply sources, transport cost, and the effect of LNG market trends on EU gas wholesale prices - separate evaluation of the impact of US LNG on the DR Task 3. Assessment of potential benefits that additional LNG receiving terminal projects could bring to the DR - analysis of ongoing projects; best practice on regulation and financing assessed - main barriers to trade and obstacles for investments identified based on interviews Task 4. Modelling the market impacts of alternative RU-EU pipeline options on the DR - Combinations of North Stream 2 and Turkish Stream options analysed under alternative DR gas demand and infrastructure scenarios 14 Expected outcomes • Conclusions to contribution to the Commission’s LNG strategy • Policy and regulatory proposals to unlock the Danube Region for LNG • Produce a DR Working Paper to serve as a basis for a topical LNG Workshop for the DR 15 EGMM references • • • • • • • • • • Analysis of the CSEE gas storage market; the impact of system use charges on the demand for gas storage capacity (E.ON, 2012) and (MoFA, 2013) CBA of PECI projects for the Energy Community (2013) Latest significant upgrade supported by FGSZ (Hungarian TSO)(2013) The impact of gas infrastructure corridors on the regional gas market (MoFA RoBoGo, March 2014), FGSZ South Stream (April 2014) Supply Security analyses related to the Ukrainian crisis (2014, Atlantic Council, EFET, IDDRI) Towards2030 - Dialogue CBA of PCI projects for the Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority (2014-2015) Measures To Increase The Flexibility And Resilience Of The European Natural Gas Market (2014, IEA) CESEC gas infrastructure corridor modelling (2015, Commission) LNG receiving capability of Europe at different price scenarios and pricing strategies and infrastructure bottlenecks (2015, Cheniere) 16