Download 1. dia - Energy

Proposed analytical support for the
Danube Region Strategy’s Energy PA
Péter Kaderják
Director
Steering Committee Meeting, PA2 of the EU Strategy
for the Danube Region
October 28, 2015. Ulm, Germany
Defining the 2015 fall -2016 program
• Background objectives:
‣ Contribute to Energy Union related (pre)-legislative discussions
‣ Best serve regional energy sector development
‣ Stimulate projects
• List of potential topics discussed and narrowed down by
Czech and Hungarian colleagues during summer:
1. Monitoring the renewable heat sector in the Danube
Region
2. Evaluating the LNG option for the Danube Region
2
1. Monitoring the renewable heat
sector in the Danube Region
3
150 km
MAIN CONSUMING SECTORS
Energy sector
Industry
Transport
100 mi
Million tonnes of oil equivalent 2013*
Residential and services
Agriculture
Other
CZ: 43
SK: 17
AT: 33
© d-maps.com
Heating and cooling is up to 40% of
primary energy consumption in the DR
UA: 117
MD: 3
HU: 22
SI: 7
RO: 32
HR: 7
BA: 7
RS: 15
XK: 2
BG: 17
*IEA Energy Balances of OECD and non-OECD
countries (2015), without electricity trade
ME: 1
4
RES-H provides for close to 50% in RES
consumption
RES consumption according to NREAPs in 8 DR/EU* countries
ktoe
RES-H
RES-E
RES-T
Total
2010
20 905
16 241
5 139
42 285
2015
24 510
22 892
5 606
53 008
2020
29 731
29 210
9 289
68 230
• Heat sector gives 50 %
of RES consumption in 2010
• RES-H has a crucial role to meet the
2020 targets also in DR countries
The role of RES-DH
ktoe
RES-DH
Other RES-H
Total RES-H
2010
2329
18 576
20 905
2015
3548
20 962
24 510
2020
6026
23 705
29 731
• District heat gives almost half of the
renewable consumption growth
in the heat sector
*:AT,BG, CZ, DE, HU, RO, SI, SK
5
Proposal: carry out a review phase of
renewable heat monitoring in the DR
Biomass consumption in EU28
120
100
80
60
40
20
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
1990
Gross inland biomass consumption in EU28, million TOE
140
• Present biomass consumption
is around 120 mTOE in the EU
• According to the European
Environmental Agency (2006)
the biomass potential is above
190 mTOE
• The barrier is not that the EU
reached its full biomass
potential, but other factors
• Regulation of the DH sector is
crucial to mobilize the biomass
and geothermal potential
The proposed project should:
• focus on DH regulation and RES incentive schemes
• be based on previous results (DR Biomass and Geothermal Action Plans)
6
Objective and proposed Tasks
Objective
•
review the use of renewable heat (RES-H) in the DR countries
•
focus on the renewable based district heating (DH) sector
•
identify best practices which help to utilize renewable heat in the district heat sector
Task 1: Development of RES-H use in DR countries in the last decade
•
•
•
assess the development of the fuel mix of the heat sector in the last decade
analyse the demand side of the heat sector, focusing on the development of heat use in the
various end user segments such as household, industry, service and other
compare the DR countries to find general tendencies and/or identify clusters.
Task 2: Analysis of RES DH sector in DR countries
•
carry out a thorough assessment of the renewable district heat (DH) sector:
‣ analyse the fuel mix development,
‣ assess the present regulation of DH, including the different RES support mechanisms
‣
identify the best regulatory practices that foster the utilization of renewable sources in DH
Task 3: Comparing the present RES-H development with the National Renewable Action Plans
(NREAPs)
•
•
contrast the actual RES-H development and compare it to the plans indicated in the NREAPs
assess per country the sectors that are efficient/inefficient in reaching their interim RES-H target.
7
Expected outcomes
• Conclusions to contribution to the Commission’s „Heating
and cooling” strategy paper
• Policy and regulatory proposals to improve RES
utilization in the DH sector in the DR
• Produce a DR Working Paper to serve as a basis for a
project oriented Workshop on RES-H utilization
8
2. Evaluating the LNG option for the
Danube Region
9
Relative attractiveness of European market
for LNG improves…
LNG flow to Europe
29.0
30
20
15
10
5
23.9
~21%
UTILISATION
25
~18%
UTILISATION
Gas flow via LNG, bcm
35
0
2014. JanJuly
Current market developments:
• Asian gas demand decrease
• Drop in oil and in oil-indexed LTC gas prices
• Regional gas price convergence
• More spot LNG is heading towards Europe
• With the current trend European LNG utilization in 2015
might go up to 51 bcm (22% utilization)
• Downward pressure on EU spot prices
2015. JanJuly
BCM/YEAR
2016
2017
2018
Potential US
LNG export to
Europe
7.7
16.5
31.8
10
…new LNG export capacities to come
online, but…
• Declining demand in Europe for the last years
• LNG was heading to Asia, European LNG terminals were
underutilized
2015: there is a substantial change on the LNG market
US LNG pricing is market
based - More LNG can be
spot traded
Australian and US producers enter
the LNG market
11
…infrastructure and regulatory constraints
limit DR benefits from this development…
-weighted average
21,1
21,0
26,5
JP
26,3
19,0
• CSEE price: 2244% over TTF
21,2
22,9
17,4
50,0
17,8
19,7
16,7
19,3
17,0
17,5
18,3
AD
15,8
AU
17,2
BN
17,4
ED
14,5
GQ
13,8
ID
17,4
MY
17,5
NG
13,8
OM
16,0
PE
14,7
QA
15,8
YE
21,2
19,4
18,8
18,1
25,0
21,9
18,4
20,5
20,0
22,6
24,4
24,0
19,4
26,2
27,9
17,4
18,9
TT
US
18,1
• Need for additional
LNG in SEE or
connecting LNGGR to SEE is
needed
11,6
DZ
16,9
27,5
Fro
18
20
25
30
Legend
To
Colo
20
25
30
+
17,0
50,0
50,0
12
…and wholesale gas price divergence
might develop within Europe
Price divergence in case of falling TTF (LNG) prices in Europe
10
9
8
7
$/MMBtu
TTF
6
CR
SB
5
BG
BiH
4
HU
UA
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
13
Proposal: evaluating the LNG option for
the Danube Region
Objective: evaluate the possible gas market effects of increased LNG regas and related
pipeline options for the DR
Task 1. Gas demand analysis and outlook for the DR countries
- in-depth analysis of gas demand in the last 5 years
- more coherent outlook: perspectives for coal-to-gas switch; impact of energy
efficiency efforts
Task 2. LNG market developments and their impact on the EU gas market
- LNG market analysis in terms of production costs, supply sources, transport cost, and
the effect of LNG market trends on EU gas wholesale prices
- separate evaluation of the impact of US LNG on the DR
Task 3. Assessment of potential benefits that additional LNG receiving terminal projects
could bring to the DR
- analysis of ongoing projects; best practice on regulation and financing assessed
- main barriers to trade and obstacles for investments identified based on interviews
Task 4. Modelling the market impacts of alternative RU-EU pipeline options on the DR
- Combinations of North Stream 2 and Turkish Stream options analysed under
alternative DR gas demand and infrastructure scenarios
14
Expected outcomes
• Conclusions to contribution to the Commission’s LNG
strategy
• Policy and regulatory proposals to unlock the Danube
Region for LNG
• Produce a DR Working Paper to serve as a basis for a
topical LNG Workshop for the DR
15
EGMM references
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Analysis of the CSEE gas storage market; the impact of system use charges
on the demand for gas storage capacity (E.ON, 2012) and (MoFA, 2013)
CBA of PECI projects for the Energy Community (2013)
Latest significant upgrade supported by FGSZ (Hungarian TSO)(2013)
The impact of gas infrastructure corridors on the regional gas market (MoFA
RoBoGo, March 2014), FGSZ South Stream (April 2014)
Supply Security analyses related to the Ukrainian crisis (2014, Atlantic
Council, EFET, IDDRI)
Towards2030 - Dialogue
CBA of PCI projects for the Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory
Authority (2014-2015)
Measures To Increase The Flexibility And Resilience Of The European
Natural Gas Market (2014, IEA)
CESEC gas infrastructure corridor modelling (2015, Commission)
LNG receiving capability of Europe at different price scenarios and pricing
strategies and infrastructure bottlenecks (2015, Cheniere)
16