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London Today, London Tomorrow
Challenges and Agendas for the City’s Future
Professor Mark Tewdwr-Jones
Newcastle University
The Evolving Urban System
• Renewal is a challenge facing cities, regions and nation states
the world over
• The long term challenges of a world city vs. national, regional
and local interests, climate change, demographic mix and
infrastructure investment
• Effective implementation requires the right combination of
planning, governance, competent agencies, delivery vehicles
and resources
• The enigmatic city and the survival instinct: how does London
carry on within an ambiguous political and institutional
structure, where planning does not take the lead?
• Is London a supreme example of a fluid or post political city?:
Political certainty and resilience but adaptable with ad hoc
responses that are malleable; a model to follow?
• What is London prepared to do to ensure its’ world city ranking
and what are the consequences for Londoners and other cities?
Urban containment and planned
growth
Population Growth 2006-2026
Migration: London 2001
•150,000 people move in
•250,000 people move out
(suburbs and beyond)
150,000 foreign net migration into London
London regarded as economic success
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Produces 18% of national
economic output against 12%
of population and 15% of
workforce
Specialises in high value
business and financial
services and also in media,
ICT and leisure activities
Relative decline in 1970s and
1980s but strong recovery
from 1993
By 2001, at highest job levels
since early 1970s
New patterns of commuting
Land and resources – water already “over-abstracted” in
the South East of England
Flexible planning styles and governance forms:
Thames Gateway
• Thames Gateway is one UK’s main areas for population
and housing growth stretching from East London along the
Thames in Kent and Essex
• At 40 miles long and 20 miles wide it is Europe’s largest
renewal project
• Proposed 120,000 homes
• 23,000 new homes per year in London at cost of £16
billion
• Forecast to provide 200,000 new jobs
Multiple Stakeholders
Flexible planning styles and governance forms:
2012 Olympics
• Successful bid for 2012
Olympics focused around
London’s Lower Lea Valley
• Area of significant
deprivation with low rates
of economic activity, poor
health and a young an
ethnically diverse
population
• Much of area currently
under-developed and
under-utilised with low
grade industrial activity and
lack of amenities for
business or community
Challenges remain…
• Population expected to grow to over 8 million and
employment forecast to grow by 640,000 by 2016
• Increasingly globalised economy and continuing challenge
of outsourcing and international competition; signature
architecture
• Changing lifestyle, values and household composition
• Increased pressure on public transport infrastructure and
demands outweighing investment
• Deep rooted deprivation and social inequalities in certain
areas
• Who’s London? Safety and security for residents and
businesses: “7 million Londoners, 1 London”
• London’s reliance on the greater region
What form of governance?
• The spirit level test: centralism, regionalism, federalism,
localism
• Mixes of governance styles and ownership
• Purpose and permeability of governance
• Moving away from one style fits all approach
• Ongoing translation issues between existing government
structures and new styles
• Moveable discretionary frames
• Duplication and fatigue in governance structures
• Threats of increasing policy turbulence
• The boundaries and territorial constraints of policies
What form of planning, if any?
• A tale of two plannings
• The rigid institutional and boundaried forms of (historic)
planning
• New fluid and softer forms of planning, partly set within
boundaried government, partly outside; without constraints
• Territorial cohesion vs territorial protection
• Developing non-shared visions for the future
• Planning still relied upon but reactively to deal with social and
environmental consequences; greenwashing?
• Questions of accountability and legitimacy -> maintain role of
boundaried planning
• A potential tipping point: quality of life
Some scenarios for the future of the city
• Business as usual? Nearing collapse?
• A more polarised city, unlike any other part of the UK
• Business interests increasingly driving agendas with politicians
reactive
• Housing need will create a different housing system
• Communities galvanise and protect themselves?
• But London’s sphere of influence will continue to create
pressures on the Greater South East+, with or without
planning agreement or wider political support
• Will London protect itself?
• UK leaves EU; Scotland granted independence
• London becomes more differentiated from England with
political calls to attain city state status