Download ET2050 Plenary Session

Scenarios and Vision for
the European Territory in 2050
Andreu Ulied, MCRIT, Lead Partner
ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
ESPON MC
5th December 2013 Vlinius
ET2050 Consortium

From Project Specifications:
The ESPON Monitoring Committee,
DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit
wish to start a territorial vision-building
process that involves relevant stakeholders at
European, national and regional level,
having 2050 as time horizon
ET2050 Methodology
Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)
Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)
ET2050 Forecast Models
Demography
Economy
Transport
Land-use
Integrated
MULTIPOLES (2010-2030)
Cohort-component, hierarchical,
multiregional, supranational model of
population dynamics (up to 2030)
MASST3 (2010-2030)
Econometric: social, macroeconomic and
Territorial (up to 2030)
MOSAIC (2010-2030)
Integrated modal split and traffic assignment
based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices
(up to 2030)
METRONAMICA (2010-2050)
Spatial and dynamic land use model that
Uses constrained cellular automata to
allocate land-uses (up to 2050)
SASI (2010-2050)
Dynamic System (up to 2050)
ESPON at
NUTS2
IOM
ESPON at
NUTS2
POLIMI
EU27 at
NUTS2
MCRIT
EU27
at Cells 1 km2
RIKS
ESPON
and Western
Balkans
at NUTS3
S&W
Population Change 2010-2030 by MULTIPOLES
Population: from
514 to 530 inh.
GDP Growth 2010-2030 (Baseline) by MASST3
GDP a.a.:
1,89 %
45 regions bellow 1,00 %
Trade by companies located in Germany (M€)
Germany
Trade in M€
EUROSTAT
700.000
600.000
500.000
400.000
300.000
200.000
100.000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
export - extraEU27
2003
2004
2005
export - intraEU27
2006
2007
import - extraEU27
2008
2009
2010
import - intraEU27
2011
2012
Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)
Spain Trade in M€
200.000
180.000
160.000
140.000
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
export - extraEU27
2003
2004
2005
export - intraEU27
2006
2007
import - extraEU27
2008
2009
2010
import - intraEU27
2011
2012
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
Loosing Population
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
Loosing Population
Loosing Population
and growing less
that EU average
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
Loosing Population
Loosing Population
and growing less
that EU average
Growing less that
EU average
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
Increasing Polarisation
on Global Gateways
Growing more that
EU average
Loosing Population
Loosing Population
and growing less
that EU average
Growing less that
EU average
European Territorial Strategy A : Promotion of Global Cities
A
European Territorial Strategy B: Promotion of Networks of Cities
B
European Territorial Strategy C: Promotion of Rural and Peripheral Regions
C
Scenarios 2030, the Crisis Aftermath
Roberto Camagni, POLIMI
ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
Summary of assumptions in the scenarios
• “Baseline scenario: No change in economic fundamentals
and structure; no change in policies
• A: “Megas” scenario: Market driven scenario; budget
reduced for cohesion policies; concentration of investments
in European large cities.
• B: “Cities” scenario: Present welfare system reinforced;
budget maintained for cohesion policies; concentration of
investments in second rank cities.
• C: “Regions” scenario: Strong public welfare system;
budget significantly increased for cohesion policies;
concentration of investments in rural and cohesion area
20
Conclusions on aggregate GDP growth (2030)
•
New 12 countires grow more with respect to Old 15
countries, but less than before.
•
The B “Cities” scenario is the most expansionary:
territorial capital is better exploited than in the other
scenarios
•
New 12 countries grow less in the C “Regions” scenario.
.
21
.1
In the past 20 years
convergence among
EU countries could
more than offset
increases in intranational disparities
.05
Total regional
disparities will
increase
.15
Conclusions on Regional Disparities in the Baseline
2010
This will not happen
in the future (and is
already visible during
the present crisis)
2015
2020
Year
Total Theil index
Within Country Theil index
2025
2030
Between Country Theil index
22
Conclusions on National Disparities in the Baseline
Eurostat
MASST3
23
Total Disparities in Scenarios
A “megas”
0.155
C “regions”
B “cities”
0.150
Baseline scenario
Megas scenario
Total Disparities
Cities scenario
0.145
Regions scenario
0.140
0.135
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
“Cities” Scenario is the most cohesive! ”Megas” Scenario is less cohesive
Between Countries Disparities in the scenarios
0.098
0.096
0.094
C “regions”
0.092
Baseline scenario
Megas scenario
A “megas”
0.090
B “cities”
Regions Scenario
0.088
0.086
0.084
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Cities scenario
2027
2028
2029
2030
Theil Index by Scenario: Inside Countries Disparities
0.065
B “cities”
A “megas”
0.060
C “regions”
0.055
Baseline scenario
Megas scenario
Cities scenario
Regions scenario
0.050
0.045
0.040
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
“Regions” scenario is the most cohesive, as expected, followed by the “Cities”
Sensitivity analysis on the Baseline Scenario
Baseline is not meant to be the most likely scenario.
A sensitivity analysis was run, changing single exogenous
assumptions inside the MASST model:
1. Higher internal inflation rates in New 12 Countries with
respect to Old 15:  higher control on wages, productivity 
external competitiveness
2. Increased tax rates in “vicious” countries (too high public
debt):  lower growth potential
3. Higher FDI increase in New 12 countries:  higher growth?
Not proved: new investments generate higher imports)
Sensitivity analysis: lower inflation rates in NMCs
0.18
Decreased inflation in New 12 member countries
0.16
------ Dotted lines refer to the
Baseline Scenario
Total reg. disparities
0.14
0.12
baseline T
0.1
baseline Tbc
baseline Twc
Between-country
0.08
Experiment T
Experiment Tbc
Experiment Twc
0.06
Within country disparities
0.04
0.02
0
2012
2030
Note: Inflation in New 12 countries is lowered from 5%
(baseline) to 3%. Baseline assumption for Old15 member
countries is 2.5%.
This lever has strong
effects on growth rates in
NMCs; new assunptions
generate a strong
decrease in inter-national
disparities and a light
increase in tot. disparities
Higher taxation in wide-public debt countries
0.18
Increased tax rate in vicious countries
0.16
Total disparities
0.14
0.12
baseline T
Between-country
0.1
baseline Tbc
baseline Twc
Experiment T
0.08
Experiment Tbc
Experiment Twc
Within-country
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
2012
2030
This measure generates higher inter-national disparities
----- Baseline scenario
Scenarios 2050
Claus Spiekermann, S&W
ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
Exploratory Scenarios & Variants for 2010-2050
Extreme Framework conditions
Spatial
orientation of
the scenarios
0
Baseline
1
Economic
decline
2
Technologic
progress
3
Energy/
Climate
Costs
Promotion of global
regions
A0
A1
A2
A3
Promotion of urban
regions
B0
B1
B2
B3
Promotion of rural
and peripheral
regions
C0
C1
C2
C3
European Funds Allocation across NUTS3
A (MEGAs)
B (Cities)
C (Regions)
1.0 %
0.5
0.25%
of total EU
Structural
Funds
Baseline Scenario
The
Scenario A:
GDP per capita
Difference
to Baseline
Scenario
2051
Difference to
Baseline Scenario
(%) 2051
Scenario B:
GDP per capita
Difference
to Baseline
Scenario
2051
Difference to
Baseline Scenario
(%) 2051
Scenario C:
GDP per capita
Difference
to Baseline
Scenario
2051
Difference to
Baseline Scenario
(%) 2051
Regional disparities reduced by funds allocation
B2
C2
GDP growth depens on Framework Conditions
B2
C2
C2
B2
Scenarios Policy Comparison
Summary comparison
Participatory process towards Vision 2050
ValerieBiot, IGEAT
ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
Inspiring policy making by territorial foresight
Scientifically-driven exercice
VISION
Scenarios
Politically-driven process
Process towards the European Territorial Vision
• Scientific input from the scenario exercise
• Review of European and World strategies &
policies
• Interaction with ESPON MC
• Interaction with Stakeholders
ESPON Monitoring Committee Workshops
Kraków, 29-30 November 2011 Aalborg , 13-14 June 2012 Brussels, 28 September 2012
Dublin, 12-14 June 2013
Paphos, 4-6 December 2012
C
A
B
C
A
B
A European Territorial Vision 2050
Carlo Sessa, ISIS
ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
Outline of the European Territorial Vision
• Values and policy paradigms
• Europe in the World
• Europe and its Neighborhoods
• Changes for Europe as a whole
• The Future of the European Territory
• European Territorial Governance
2050 Vision: summing up framework elements
New borders of the EU: Deep and sustainable democracy in an enlarged EU and
EFTA space
Co-development with Neighbouring Countries (namely the Euro-Mediterranean)
Technology induced changes: «everywhere connectivity» will change our social,
learning and work, manufacturing, energy, daily habits and mobility towards more
flexible time use and polycentric landscapes
Demographic, economic and social changes: ageing everywhere in the world,
except in Africa (especially SSA), deceleration of growth and trade of goods, more
services & intangibles, «smartphone»-centred lifestyle, socio-ecological transition
towards green and blue economy, within Europe, a more educated & mobile &
Creative workforce and diversified jobs.
Energy, Transport and climate changes: «low» but not «post-carbon» Europe;
smart and sustainable transport; adaptation to climate change (mitigation is not
enough).
2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements
EU governance changes: EU economic recovery heading to more integration
(«out of need, not out of love»), but with a lean model
Paradigm shifts: qualitative more than quantitative growth and productivity
concepts, efficient spending on education, health and other territorial services
(outcomes measured with beyond GDP indicators). Convergence of GDP is no
more the «totem»/paradigm indicator, territorial efficiency/diversity and
territorial cohesion objectives are the new totems.
Polycentric development: More connectivity within and across different urban
regions’ layers: large cities (less «Pentagon-centric» network), medium-to-small
networks of cities, compact cities. Urban sprawl is halted. More «rurban regions»,
but also revitilized «bioregions»
2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements
A new Cohesion Strategy:
•Complementarity between EU territorial cohesion funds and other EU
solidarity funds (to prevent financial crisis, to enable energy interdependence,
EU border management solidarity).
•Place-based approach in the different functional regions of Europe, within and
across the national borders.
•Territorial capital and European public goods agenda, based on high-level
policy negotiation and agreed criteria of EU-wide relevance, place-based nature
and verifiability (with “beyond GDP” impact assessment indicators)
Which EU Cohesion Policy after 2020?
EU Cohesion Policy Reform after 2020
Place-based
territorial
approach
(too complicated
for the EU level to
master)?
Sectoral approach
for funding & monitoring
infrastructure (e.g.
energy, transport) and
social (e.g.education,
health) investments?
Purely
«solidarity»
approach
(EU funding MS to
compensate for
extra-costs of
implementing EU
common priorities)?
How to blend these approaches in the context of a more integrated EU?
EU has to cope with global and territorial challenges,
while closing the democratic gap between the EU and the European citizens
2020
2030
2050
A « New Generation » of Cohesion Policies
Jacek Szlachta, WSE
ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
The Vision for 2050 assumes a Successful Europe
Europe will successfully manage to overcome
negative trends ahead (rural depopulation, growing
regional disparities,
not efficient policy making...) and valorise
the assets of the different cities and regions
Cohesion Policy matters to achieve the Vision
EU Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 is necessary to
achieve key values proposed by Territorial Vision
2050: Deep and sustainable democracy, Sustainable
development, Well being and quality of life,
Solidarity, Territorial efficiency, Territorial cohesion.
But… Cohesion Policy in 2014-2020 (1):
• Using the concept “more for less” – declining
budget and widening scope of intervention
(competitiveness and cohesion)
• Facing growing disparities after 2008 – weak and
peripheral regions more fragile to external shocks
than strong and central regions
But… Cohesion Policy in 2014-2020 (2):
• Observing different development trajectories of
European Union during economic crises
Northern, Southern, Western and Eastern
• Testing new territorial tools concerning urban
policy, local development, Territorial Impact
Assessment etc.
But… Cohesion policy in 2014-2020 (3):
• Facing critical development in neighbouring
countries from south and east (Frontex and
partnership) what impacts border regions
• Facing growing administrative burden for
implementing authorities
• Being unable to establish necessary relations
with intervention within second pillar of Common
Agriculture Policy
How Cohesion policies may be reformed in the long-run?
•Regional and National institutional empowerment
•Place-based focus & open endogenous development
•Sensitivity to macro-economic cycles
•Focus on local and regional infrastructure
•Land-Use regulatory instruments in vulnerable areas
•Productive investments in Neighboring Countries
European Commission, Parliament and Committee of Regions
22 Nov 2012 in Warsaw
DGREGIO EC, 25 June 2013
Mrs. Hubner, 26 February 2013
European Parliament, 25 June 2013
COTER 9th October 2013
Stakeholders, 11 October 2013
“Too seek Europe, is to make it!
Europe exists through its search for the infinit
-and this is what I call adventure”
Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”
Further information:
www.espon.eu
www.et2050.eu (working documents)