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Effects Based Operations within
the United Kingdom Joint Force
Air Component Headquarters
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George Onslow & Geraldine Wrigley
Defence Science & Technology Laboratory
&
Air Warfare Centre Royal Air Force
&
UK JFACHQ
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Outline
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Why the RAF has embraced EBO
UKJFACHQ
Role of OA
Assessment of EBO - OEA
The JFACHQ Process
Issues
Conclusion
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What this Paper will not Discuss
• EBO in detail
• JFACHQ in detail
• NB The term EBO will be used throughout
rather than EBA etc. No subtle distinctions
are meant by this
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Precision Campaign Effects At
Range, In Time
RAF Strike Command Mission
Directive 2005
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JFACHQ
• The Joint Force Air Component HQ is the
deployable military C2 HQ for Air operations.
• It is held on high readiness and has a cadre of
some 70 officers and other ranks
• The Joint Force Air Component Commander
is responsible to the Joint Force Commander
for the planning and prosecution of air
operations.
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OA in the JFACHQ
• JFACHQ has an embedded OA team of
civilian analysts
• Analysts normally deploy on exercise and
operations
• Analysts may reachback to AWC and wider
MoD Science Community
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A Warning
• EBO is immature - much remains to be done
(and is being done)
– Development of understanding of cognitive
processes and how they may be targeted
– Incorporation of other instruments of power Diplomatic and Economic into a cohesive whole
• The JFACHQ approach (and especially the
OA contribution) is very much work in
progress
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Operations Effects Analysis
(OEA)
• Analysis conducted at the tactical level to
evaluate the success and progress of the
operational plan with respect to the
component objectives and phasing
requirements of the campaign plan.
• “How are we doing in relation to the plan”
• Previously known as Combat Analysis
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Strategy to Task
Government Strategic Objective
Operational Objective
Operational Sub-Objective
Tactical Objective
Tactical Task
Missions
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OEA - Planning
• JFACHQ uses 5-stage process called the
Objectives to Metrics Methodology1 (OMM)
• Stages are Identify, Define, Frame, Assign
and Establish Metrics
1. Lee and Kupersmith 2002
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OEA - Planning 2
• Identify – Derive the desired effects from
the JFC intent statement.
• Define – Define the effect from doctrinal
sources if possible, if not agree a definition
with JFACC’s approval.
• Frame – Determine the questions that
‘frame’ or ‘encompass’ the effects required.
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OEA - Planning 3
• Assign – Link effects to targets.
• Establish Metrics – Determine the metrics
that answer the framing questions.
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OEA - Metrics
• The final stage of Establishing Metrics is
the key part of the process
• The metrics must be relevant (obviously)
but also must be collectable
• Therefore advice is sought from A2
Collections staff as to the ‘collectability’ of
a proposed metric
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SIs and MOEs
• Success Indicators and Measures of Effect
are the metrics applied to Objectives and
Tasks.
• Names are to some extent historical and
MOE in particular is probably not the best
name for the metric concerned.
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Success Indicator (SI)
• The range of consequences to be observed
that indicate the successful achievement of
an effects-based objective.
• an occurrence or event that can be collected
by Intel and provides an indication that the
employed action is having the desired
effect. Normally expressed in effects terms
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Measure of Effect (MOE)
• A predetermined criteria, parameter or set of
conditions that indicates the level of
achievement for a defined action, normally
refers to a tactical task that can be readily
measured in terms of physical achievement.
• A quantity that can be measured and that
demonstrates whether things are occurring
according to plan. Normally expressed in
terms of sorties flown, targets hit etc.
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Strategy to Task Incorporating
OEA metrics
Government Strategic Objective
Operational Objective
Operational Sub-Objective
Tactical Objective
Tactical Task
Missions
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Success Indicator 1
Success Indicator 2
Success Indicator 1
Success Indicator 2
Success Indicator n
Success Indicator 1
Measure of Effectiveness 1
Measure of Effectiveness 2
OEA - Assessment
• Assessment of the values against the SIs
and MOEs is carried out by the analyst.
• There is no automatic or pre-set weighting
involved in the process.
• Analyst will take advice from ‘experts’
when formulating the assessment.
• Analyst will establish a confidence level in
the assessment.
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Reporting of OEA
• JFACC normally briefed twice daily
• Normally 2 or 3 slides presented in Main
Brief
• Issues normally briefed in Strategy Brief
• Complete OEA briefing is 80+ slides
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Top Level - Campaign Schematic
with Decisive Points
Shape
Secure
M
Shape
Task not started
Task just begun
Task nearly complete
Task complete
M
1
4
6
Early I&W
established IOT
inform force entry
Physically isolate
RJL from KL
Establish
Air Control
External
H
11
H
Secure
L
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L
3
5
Establish and deploy
Establish
coalition ISR
matrix
No Effect advance force
Well short
Approaching
Achieved
Border ColourStatus last briefed
Disrupt RKLO
SLoC
7
Demonstrate
resolve and
capability
Internal
M
10
Establish zone of
separation
Objectives & Success Indicators
• Traffic Light system used.
• May include
– Confidence level
– Expected value
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Objectives & Success Indicators 2
Key
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B
Black
Objective Not Yet Undertaken
R
Red
No indications of Expected
Effects (for given stage of Ops)
A Amber
Effects Well short of those
Finally Expected (not necessarily
an issue
Y Yellow
Effects Approaching those
Finally Expected
G Green
Achieving Effect Required
W White
No Data (INTEL) for
Assessment
Tactical Tasks & MOEs
• Achievement of Tactical Tasks and their
associated MOEs are shown by a slider bar
– Colour of Bar is colour of overarching
objective.
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Tactical Tasks & MOEs 2
O - On Time
A - Ahead Planned Effort
B - Behind Planned Effort
ETC - Estimated Date of Completion
ETC ATO D
A
0%
Previous
assessment
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40%
80%
Position of bar indicates
achievement
CAPT
• Prototype tool
• Database to hold Strat to Task Hierarchy
and associated metrics.
• Allow analyst to record assessments against
metrics
• Produces powerpoint briefing with
hyperlinking of hierarchy
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Shortcomings of Current
Approach
• Unwanted effects are non considered in a
formal way
• Management of Risk
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Management of Risk
• Consider the JFACCs problem when
managing risk
• If a Weapon system has been destroyed it
can’t be used - Risk is low
• If that weapon system has been neutralised
by (say) the operator being convinced that it
would be a bad idea to use it, then the risk
of that weapon being used is higher
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Problems and Issues with EBO
from the JFACHQ Perspective
• EBO is immature.
• EBO doctrine is still emerging. Good work
has been done but more remains
• The UK does not conduct operations using
all instruments of power in a coherent way
• Assessment of EBO is not yet ‘joined up’.
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Problems and Issues 2
• EBO will require a large and diverse range
of data sources. Developing this set will be
a challenge.
• Adding ‘cognitive’ type effects to exercises
will be difficult. This will impact on
training and the development of OEA
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The Future for OEA
• Need to ensure that we keep abreast of
developments in EBO
• Need to ensure that any OEA toolset is
integrated into other Air C2 systems
• Need to develop relationship with other
component HQs
• Need to establish ways of training and
exercising capability
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Haven’t We Always Done EBO?
• In 1944 603 Sqn were tasked against Greek
Town of Kalymos (held by the Germans).
• “Four Beaufighters are to demonstrate over
the target area from 1645 to 1700 Oct 17.
Aircraft are not (repeat) not to open fire but
are to leave no doubt in the minds of the
enemy that their fate is sealed if resistance
continues”
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Questions ?
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