Download “Climate change is the single most pressing environmental

Global climate change and Australia’s
bi di
biodiversity:
it assessing
i vulnerability,
l
bilit
predicting impacts and adaptation
Steve Williams
Luke Shoo, Jeremy VanDerWal, Yvette Williams, Jo
Isaac, Craig Moritz, Collin Storlie & many other
collaborators, post-docs and students
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change
School of Marine & Tropical Biology
m Cook University
y
James
Townsville
“Climate change is the
single most pressing
environmental,, economic
and social challenge this
country
t f
faces””
Treasury Dept. report to the federal
Treasurer, Melbourne Age 1/2/2008.
One problem with
dealing with climate
change has been the
difference in the time
scales between global
change
g and political
p
terms…
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change
Dark red = high species
richness
70
Species Extinctions
Number of P
Predicted Extincctions
Spatial Pattern
of Species
Ri h
Richness
60
S-curve fit:
adj. r2 = 0.997
p=0
0.001
001
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Temperature Increase
110
Mean Range Size
Core Ha
abitat Remainin
ng (%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
N=
Williams et al. 2003. Proc Roy Soc Lond B
65
64
35
8
0
1
Current
+1.0
+3.5
+5.0
+7.0
Temperature Scenario
8
Global analysis
(Thomas et al. 2004 Nature
427:
7 145-148):
5 8)
18-35%
18
35% of species
world wide “committed
to extinction”
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change
The rainforests of the
Wet Tropics are now
internationally
y
recognised as being one
of
f the
th mostt vulnerable
l
bl
ecosystems on earth
1) Understanding biodiversity
2) Assessing relative vulnerability
3) Predicting
P dictin imp
impacts
cts
4) Informing
g conservation management
g
& policy
p
y
5) Developing adaptation options
6) Minimising
M
the
h impacts
How are we
approaching
pp
g this
challenge in the
t
tropical
i l rainforests
i f
t of
f
the Australian Wet
Tropics
p
World
W
Heritage Area
( highly
(a
h hl vulnerable
l
bl ecosystem))
WET TROPICS
BIOREGION
•
~ 10,000 sq km rainforest
•
1 5 – 8.5
1.5
8 5 m/yr
/ rain
i
•
400 km long
•
0.1% of Australia
•
approx 50% Australia
Australia’ss rainforest
•
most biologically rich area in
Australia
Understanding
U
d
di
biodiversity
One of the most
basic parts of
ecology is the
understanding of
what species
occur where.
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change
Species Distribution
models
d l
• ~200 species of
rainforest vertebrates
• ~200 species of insects
(Williams S.E. et al. In review. Distributions, life history
characteristics, ecological specialisation and
phylogeny of the rainforest vertebrates in the
Australian Wet Tropics bioregion. Ecology MS #:
09 1069)
09-1069)
Rainforest Birds Species Richness
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change
Rainforest
vertebrate
species richness
Overlayed distribution maps of all 196 species of
rainforest vertebrates.
Nearly 300 000 records including over 2200
standardised abundance surveys.
surveys
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change
Early
y studies show that we have a
high diversity/endemism fauna
that is adapted
p
to cool, wet,
stable upland rainforest: very
vulnerable to climate change
g
predictions of increasing
temperature
p
and rainfall
unpredictability.
Towards an integrated
framework for
understanding
vulnerability
l
bilit and
d
predicting impacts
- enables sensible prioritisation
of research directions and the
allocation of management /
adaptation
d pt ti n resources.
Vulnerability
But
But….
There are many
complex biological
factors to consider
Williams Shoo Isaac Hoffmann, 2008 PLoS Biol
Predicting
P
di i
Impacts
Field Projects:
• Monitoring environment
• Vertebrate / Invertebrate
b d
biodiversity
•Birds, Frogs, Arboreal Mammals,
R til
Reptiles,
Bats,
B t Beetles,
B tl
Flies,
Fli
D
Dung
beetles, Ants, Trees
• Physiology – possums / frogs
• Ecosystem Processes:
• Net Primary Productivity
• Nutrient cycling
• Decomposition rates
• Soil nutrients
• Fire weather
• Refugia – macro / micro
Cooktown
Cairns
Townsville
Elevational sampling at 200 m intervals
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change
Williams Shoo Isaac Hoffmann, 2008 PLoS Biol
Exposure
p
What can we expect in the Australian
Wet Tropics Rainforest?
• Increasing temperature
• 0.9-1.6 by 2030
• 1.1-4.8 by 2070
• L
Longer,
g , harsher dry
y seasons
• Reduction in cloud stripping
• More high
h h intensity cyclones
l
Third g
generation predictive
p
models….
• Maxent
• Climate
• More data / More species
• 7 best GCM models run
independently in 0,5 deg steps
• Abundance / Total population size
(one run required ~90 CPUs running
for 2 weeks = ~20 000 models
averaged)
Lemuroid Ringtail Possum
Worst
Average
Best
Lemuroid Ringtail Possum
Golden Bowerbird
Worst
Average
Best
Golden Bowerbird
Geographic
Population
Centre
Macleays Honeyeater
Worst
Average
Best
Macleays Honeyeater
Rainforest
Species
Richness
(196 species)
Worst
0
Average
100
200
Species Richness
Best
Endemic
Species
Richness
Worst
0
Average
g
50
100
Species Richness
Best
Fourth g
generation predictive
p
models….
• Combine regional distribution models
and predictions with relative
buffering (refugial potential)
• Macro
Macro-Scale
Scale
• Incoming energy
• Topography
• Canopy
• Micro-Scale
• Boulder fields
• Under logs
• Tree hollows / dens
• Within the leaf litter
• Underground
Regional
R
i
l
climate
buffering
Refugia / Buffering
(Luke Shoo)
•
•
•
•
•
Clouds
Topographic
C
Canopy
Microhabitat
Distance to coast
(mountain mass effect)
(mountain-mass
• Distance to drainage
lines
Williams Shoo Isaac Hoffmann, 2008 PLoS Biol
Refugia and climatic buffering: landscape, habitat, microhabitat scales
P t ti l f
Potential
factors
t
mediating
di ti maximum
i
ttemperature
t
att llandscape
d
scales
l
+
elevation
+
l titud
latitude
+
dist n
distance
to stream
+
distance
dist
n
to coast
+
+
foliage
f
li
cover
clear
l
sky
sk
radiation
~
cloud
l ud
cover
m ximum
maximum
temperature
Shoo, Williams, Storlie, VanDerWal, Williams, unpublished)
November
max
p
temperature
Adjusted Max
Temperature
Degree of
Buffering ºC
+ 3.8
- esoclim
-13.2
13 2
Microhabitat
b ff i
buffering
– a g
good news story
y
Thorntons Peak Nursery Frog – Critically Endangered (IUCN)
due to climate change
Boulder field temperature &
humidity buffering:
it stays much cooler and more
constant down in the
b ld
boulders
But you can
can’tt
hide all the
time…….
time
daily
d
il activity
ti it patterns
tt
need
d tto b
be ttaken
k
iinto
t
account
Actual Temperature Exposure
Accounting for both microhabitat buffering and daily activity pattern
(Andres Merino-Viteri, Shoo, Williams unpublished)
Realised exposure 5 – 18 deg.
Sensitivity
Williams Shoo Isaac Hoffmann, 2008 PLoS Biol
What can this species
tolerate?
l
?
- physiology
Thermal preference
p
Thermal tolerance
Desiccation
resistance
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change
Thermal physiology
of
f C.. concinnus:
• maximum
i
temperature
tolerance is ~ 27-32
deg
g with 34 being
g
lethal.
So C.
C concinnus should be buffered from
direct impacts:
•
•
•
Nocturnal behaviour
Boulders buffering the maximum
temperatures
Wide-enough temperature tolerance to
handle night-time temperatures
Of course, this does not account for
impacts on breeding biology or biotic
interactions.
However, sometimes
things are worse than
we originally
predicted
di t d ttoo.
Lemuroid Ringtail Possum
(Hemibelideus lemuroides))
Martin Cohen www.wildaboutaustralia.com
• Only recorded above 1100 m
• Distribution
Di t ib ti d
driven
i
b
by maximum
i
ttemperature
t
• High proportion of white individuals ~50%
• occurs mostly between 700 m and 1000 m
• Distribution driven by maximum temperature and
dry season rainfall
• Very low proportion of white individuals ~1/2000
Mike Trenerry
Predictive distributions under
future climate change suggests
that the northern population
would go extinct with 1 – 1.5
deg of warming, while the
southern lineage will persist
for 2.5-3.5 degrees.
We have already had ~0.8 deg.
20 YEARS OF FIELD DATA
• Mid 80s ~ 6
6-10
10 individuals per
km of spotlighting
• 1996-2005: ~0.8 individuals
per km
• 2005-2008:
2005 2008: no individuals seen
in 50 km of transects
•
•
•
•
Incl 12 transects by us over 2005-2008
8 transects
t
t by
b us octt 2008
18 transects by us Jan 2009
12 transects by tour guide (Cohen) 2006-2007
Trennery 1992; Williams unpublished data
Extreme temperature events at 1200 m site:
The number of consecutive days where daily maximums were
above
b
the
h 90thh percentile
l (~28
(
º C))
No Lemuroids
Lots of Lemuroids
Few Lemuroids
• N
Northern
th
population
l ti has
h
significantly lower tolerance
and/or
• Interactive effect between
physiological
h i l i l temperature
t
t
tolerance and another
ecological
l i l factor
f t such
h as biotic
bi ti
interactions with foliage
nutrients,
t i t water
t availability
il bilit or
predators/diseases etc
The really hard bit…
Wh t do
What
d we do?
d ?
•
•
•
•
Assess vulnerability carefully
Predict Impacts
Informed prioritisation
Monitoring
Informing
I
f
i
Management
Thornton Peak
0
50
100
Species Richness
Windsor
Daintree Lowlands
Carbine
Significant
Refugia
g for
endemic
biodiversity
y
• Averaged climate
models ((7))
•4ºC
• All endemic rainforest
vertebrates
Lamb Range
Bellenden-Ker
Bartle Frere
Herberton
Range
y
Tully
Ad
Adaptation
i
National Adaptation Research
Network – Terrestrial
B d
Biodiversity
National Adaptation Research Plan for Terrestrial
Biodiversity
The aims of this Plan are to:
1) Identify important gaps in the information needed by sectoral
decision-makers to respond to climate change in ways that reduce
the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems;
2) Set adaptation research priorities based on these gaps; and
3) Id
Identify
if capacity
i that
h can be
b harnessed
h
d or that
h needs
d
development to perform priority adaptation research.
National Adaptation Research Plan for Terrestrial
Biodiversity
Lesley Hughes
Richard Hobbs
Jan McDonald
Mark Stafford Smith
Will Steffen
Stephen Williams
(Macquarie University)
(Murdoch University)
(Griffith University)
(CSIRO)
(ANU)
(James Cook University)
What should the new conservation g
goals under climate change
g be?
What legal, policy and institutional architecture can best achieve biodiversity conservation goals?
What long term observation systems will be needed?
What architectures (configurations) of land cover confer maximum resilience for biodiversity?
How will climate change interact with other key stressors?
How can large-scale carbon mitigation initiatives maximise biodiversity conservation benefits?
How can the major socio-economic trends be harnessed to yield effective biodiversity outcomes?
What are the costs / benefits of different adaptation measures in key communities and ecosystems?
How should fire management respond to climate change?
How should management of local protected areas respond to climate change?
How can a whole-of-landscape management strategy reduce biodiversity loss under climate change?
In the context of investment in climate change adaptation, which species are most important?
How do we identify and design effective management actions to protect priority species?
How do we manage the impacts of climate change on problem species?
Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change