Download Estimating GDP

Introduction to the System of
National Accounts (SNA)
Lesson 9
Data Sources for Estimating GDP
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Censuses (1)
• Population census:
– Size of population by gender and age
– Growth rates
– Housing, employment
• Agricultural census
– Crop production
– Livestock type and numbers
– Income and expenditure
• These censuses are usually carried out
every ten years and provide the benchmark
figures which can be extrapolated by
volume indicators for the years between
censuses.
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Censuses (2)
• Industry
–
–
–
–
–
Production
Inputs
Capital formation
Employment
Inventories
• Housing
–
–
–
–
Numbers
Type of construction
Facilities
Year when built
• Benchmark estimates extrapolated for
years between censuses
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Living Standards Measurement Study
• The LSMS is a World Bank program helping
countries to measure living standards through
household surveys and community surveys.
• LSMS surveys include modules on a large
number of demographic, social and economic
topics.
• LSMS surveys provide benchmark data for
national accounts on household expenditure and
income, employment, household and business
assets, food intake ….
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Enterprise surveys (1)
• Cover enterprises operating from fixed locations
• Often carried out annually but in some countries
less frequently
• Collect data on sales, purchases, inventories,
wages and employment.
• May be tailored to the kind of activity, e.g.:
– Retail outlet
– Restaurant
– Factory
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Enterprise surveys (2)
• Short or long questionnaires?
• For the national accounts we are mainly
interested in wages and salaries paid and
profits earned.
• Can we ask directly for profits?
• Or do we need longer questionnaires asking
about all outputs and all inputs?
• Some countries have tried experiments.
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Results of survey of unorganized manufacturing
enterprises. India, 2000/2001
All
Urban
Rural
GVA: based on
detailed questions
71,495
89,664
43,852
GVA: based on short
questions
68,277
85,615
41,898
-4,50
-4,52
-4,46
150,775
90,978
59,797
Gap %
No. Observations
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Household Surveys
• Income and expenditure surveys
–
–
–
–
Monthly, quarterly, annually ?
Diaries or memory
Recall period
Income/expenditure consistency
• Labor force surveys
–
–
–
–
–
Monthly, quarterly, annual
Working or not
Earnings
Kind of activity
Occupation
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Combined Household/Enterprise Surveys
(1-2 Surveys)
Household survey (1)
• Usually a labour force
survey
• Extra questions included
to determine if anyone in
the household is running
a business
• These households form
the survey frame for the
enterprise survey
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Enterprise survey (2)
• Type of business
• Number of employees
• Family workers
• Sales
• Business expenses
• Value added;
Administrative sources
Government accounts
• Government accounts
– Budget, provisional, final.
– IMF Government Finance Statistics. This is a better
source for the national accounts than the government
accounts themselves.
– Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
– Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). This where you
will find expenditures on infrastructure.
– Strategic stocks
– Consumption of fixed capital (CFC)
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Administrative sources
Government Consumption of Fixed Capital
• Government CFC is the using up of government’s fixed capital
assets and is an important part of the costs of producing
government services.
• The SNA requires estimates of CFC in both government final
consumption expenditure (part of GDP(E)) and in government value
added (part of GDP(P)).
• The correct procedure is to estimate PIM from a perpetual
inventory model (PIM).
• If you have no PIM, you can use “depreciation” if this is shown in
the government accounts. But it should be at least 5% of
government final consumption expenditure (GFCE)
• If you have no PIM and no depreciation in the government
accounts, make an assumption that CFC is between 5%-7% of GFCE
depending on the level of economic development .
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Administrative sources
Trade and Taxes
• Merchandise trade statistics
– Household consumption
– Intermediate consumption
– Capital formation in plant and machinery
• Tax records
– Income tax
– Sales taxes and VAT
– Excise duties on alcohol and tobacco
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Administrative sources
Regulator records
• Central bank data on the commercial banks
and other financial institutions
• Insurance regulator
• Vehicle registration records
• Building permits
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Administrative sources
Private sector
• Company accounts
• Chambers of commerce
– Membership lists
– Business surveys
• Business registration records
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Number of Days Required to Register a Business, 2009
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Indonesia
Philippines
Viet Nam
China
Thailand
Nepal
India
Japan
Pakistan
Korea
Mongolia
Malaysia
Afghanistan
Hong Kong
Georgia
Singapore
Australia
New Zealand
0 Manila
Source. Key Indicators, 2010, ADB,
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
20
40
60
80
100
International Sources
FAO Food Balances
• For 200 countries and 200 crops
• Total domestic supply:
– Domestic production, imports, exports, change in stocks
• Intermediate and final uses:
– Feed
– Seed
– For processing
– Consumption
• Quantities only
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Countries
Item
Element
Malaysia
Pineapples
Production (tonnes)
Malaysia
Pineapples
Import Quantity (tonnes)
Malaysia
Pineapples
Stock Variation (tonnes)
Malaysia
Pineapples
Malaysia
Pineapples
253725
Malaysia
Pineapples
Export Quantity (tonnes)
Domestic supply quantity
(tonnes)
Food manufacture quantity
(tonnes)
Malaysia
Pineapples
Food (tonnes)
238077
Malaysia
Pineapples
Other Utilisation (tonnes)
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
2003
320000
2792
0
69067
15481
167
International sources
OECD and other countries
• OECD
– Input output data bank
– Developing as well as developed countries
– Intermediate consumption coefficients for 47
kinds of activities.
• Other countries’ data
– Living Standards Measurement Studies surveys
– Country reports
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.
Lessons?
• National accounts draw on the full range of
statistics collected by the statistical office.
• Some will be out of date and most will need
adjustments.
• National accounts in all countries rely on
administrative data:
– Government
– Regulators
– Private sector
• Don’t forget international sources.
• You can also borrow from another country
Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.