Download Slide 1 - WikiLeaks

Jihadist Threat
• Though al Qaeda and other affiliated groups have failed
to carry out attacks inside the U.S. since 2001, recent
cases prove they maintain the intent to strike inside the
U.S. Their capabilities inside the U.S. have been limited
by interception of information regarding plots, leading to
neutralization of operatives.
• Federal law enforcement authorities have increased their
ability to detect and intercept these threats. However,
these efforts may not be enough to prevent all attacks.
Jihadist Threat – Hotel Attacks
Hotels continue to be a favorite target of al Qaeda and its affiliated
groups around the world:
1.
2.
3.
July 17, 2009 – Suicide attackers detonated explosives in the
lobby areas of the Ritz Carlton and J.W. Marriott hotels, leaving at
least 8 dead and fifty others injured
November 26, 2008 - Mumbai – A group of armed attackers
carried out several shootings and bombing attacks, eventually
taking hostages at the Taj and Oberoi hotels. The attacks left at
least 173 dead and 500 others injured.
June 9, 2009 – A group of armed attackers used a vehicle-borne
improvised explosive device to break through a security
checkpoint at the Pearl Continental hotel in Peshawar, Pakistan,
leaving at least 16 dead.
Jihadist Threat – Hotel Attacks
• Hotels represent an economic target, attacking both
tourism and business confidence in the region.
Additionally, their nature requires that they be very
accessible, making the target relatively easy to access
and difficult to effectively secure.
• Business travelers should be trained to maintain
situational awareness while in hotels, while also being
aware of chokepoints inside the hotel and exit pathways
in order to best respond to attacks of this sort.
Jihad in the U.S. – The Zazi
Case
• Najibullah Zazi was in the final stages of carrying out an attack in
September 2009 and traveled to New York City to carry out the final
parts of the attack cycle.
• Zazi traveled to Pakistan in early 2009, where he attended al Qaeda
training camps and allegedly learned how to create explosive
devices using tri-acetone tri-peroxide, or “TATP”.
• Federal documents note that Zazi had already procured the
materials needed to create TATP and was attempting to mix the
ingredients needed to create TATP prior to his arrest.
• Zazi had apparently planned to carry out the attack in New York City
on September 11, 2009.
Jihad in the U.S. – The Zazi
Case
• Zazi, a 24-year old Afghan-born man who drove an airport
shuttle in Denver, allegedly sought to leave explosive devices
inside backpacks that would be detonated inside mass
transportation centers in the New York City area, including
Grand Central Station. The tactics used are similar to the
March 2004 transportation attacks in Madrid, Spain and the
June 2006 transportation attacks in Mumbai, India.
• Zazi was intercepted because federal authorities noted his
travel to Pakistan. His activities were also being monitored by
a confidential federal informant, an Imam in New York who
was also later charged in the plot after it emerged that he
informed Zazi of the federal surveillance.
Jihad in the U.S. – Dallas Case
• On September 24, 2009, FBI agents arrested Hosam Maher
Hossein Smadi, a 19-year old Jordanian man. Smadi had parked an
SUV that he believed was packed full of explosives outside Fountain
Place, a 60-story skyscraper. He later attempted to use a cellular
phone to detonate the device.
• Court documents note that Smadi actually procured the “explosives”
from undercover federal agents and did not have direct contact with
al Qaeda operatives at that time.
• While this individual was intercepted before he was able to obtain
the necessary materials to carry out an attack, the case
demonstrates the number of individuals who maintain the intent to
strike inside the U.S. who are limited by their ability to procure
explosive materials and create viable explosive devices.
Threat of Pandemic Swine Flu
• While the H1N1 virus doesn’t appear to be
especially deadly, it is certainly extremely
virulent and likely to cause widespread
contamination in the coming months
• The politics of the WHO, CDC and other medical
bodies when dealing with H1N1 should not be
ignored
• Largest current threat is loss of productivity
• Possibility remains that H1N1 could mutate into
a more deadly virus
Pandemic Swine Flu – Current
Status
Threat of Pandemic Swine Flu
• Ukraine – Currently the most restrictive measures for dealing with
swine flu. The Ukrainian Ministry of Health reports that 70 people
have died of the virus to date.
• Ukraine reported more than 600,000 new cases of flu during the last
week of October, prompting the government to close schools and
ban public gatherings, including the cancelation of some election
related events.
• The government has also announced it may delay January elections
due to the threat of spreading the virus in polling places, raising the
possibility that the flu is a convenient excuse to change the electoral
environment.
Threat of Pandemic Swine Flu
• China – Travelers continue to
be subject to screening upon
arrival
• These restrictions do not
appear to have a significant
impact on commercial traffic
• The Chinese government is
likely to implement more
severe restrictions if the virus
appears to be causing more
problems, similar to their
response to the late stages of
the SARS situation
Threats against Jewish Targets
inside the U.S.
• Law enforcement contacts continue to warn that synagogues,
community centers and other targets perceived to be Jewish are
under threat. The level of credibility and specificity of these threats is
unclear.
• These threats come from a variety of groups, including:
-Anti-semitic groups and individuals
-White hate groups and individuals
-Jihadist sympathizers
-Black Muslim groups, including organizations like the Black
Panthers
• STRATFOR has no specific information that attacks of this sort will
be carried out against Dell facilities.
Threats against Jewish Targets –
Case Study
• October 29, 2009 – Two individuals were shot and wounded in the
parking lot of the Adat Yeshurun Valley Sephardic Synagogue in
North Hollywood as they were arriving for morning prayers around
6:30am.
• Despite the presence of security cameras in the building, police
have not made an arrest in the case.
• The suspected shooter is believed to be a black male in his early
20s who was wearing a hooded sweatshirt at the time of the attack.
• The motive of the attack is unclear, though police believe the
attacker may have been motivated by a personal vendetta against
one of the victims