Download Allocation in High

FISHERIES MANAGEMENT –
WHAT’S COMING NEXT?
Doug S Butterworth
MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group)
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
A CAUTION
Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future
OUTLINE
I.
Science and Scientists
II.
ENGOs and Ecolabeling
III. Objectives for Management
IV. Governance
V.
What should industry be doing?
I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS
SCIENCE - ASSESSMENT
GENETICS
No – not for stock structure
Abundance estimation using genetic fingerprinting
and mark recapture concepts

Close kin (parent-offspring)

Genetic tagging (avoids reporting rate problems)
I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS
SCIENCE – EAF/EBFM
Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management

By-catch controls
Increasing emphasis

Species interactions (predator-prey)
Important, but progress will be slow

Habitat impact
“Eye of the beholder”

Environment/Climate change
Predictive ability a good way off
I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS
SCIENTISTS

Reduction of financial support
Especially Governments, except perhaps
ENGOs

Diminishing quantitative expertise
I see only the USA investing seriously in
succession for the baby-boomer cohort
A DEFINITE CONCERN
II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
ENGOs - A mixed blessing
Provide pressure for necessary improvements
but
Over-emphasise special interest agendas
A KEY PROBLEM

The typical ENGO public fund-raising model

Requires continual “issues” to motivate funds provision

Hence no agreement on an issue is likely to be final
II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
THE 2008 WATERSHED

Under ENGO pressure, the supermarket buyers
of Northern Europe agreed to sell fish products
only if they were MSC certified

They thereby performed a silent and unrealised
coup d’etat on Ministers of Fisheries as to who
decides fisheries policy
A MAJOR GAME CHANGER
II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
MSC – SEPTEMBER LANDMARK RULING
ADJUDICATOR RULING (given ENGO objection):
 Certification must fail without a harvest control rule
formally accepted by the managing authority
A VERY POSITIVE STEP?
 Isn’t pre-agreement of what to do when stock status
deteriorates a sine qua non for sound management?
II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
ENGOs will continue to press for more
stringent MSC criteria
BUT
Developing countries will be increasingly
unable to meet such criteria


Lack of expertise/infrastructure
Loss of incentive/opportunity to improve
fisheries management where most needed
HOW WILL THE MSC REACT?
II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
ENGOs: THE GREAT PUSH FOR MPAs
WHY?
MPAs HAVE LIMITED POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE
UTILISATION OF FISH RESOURCES?????
PERHAPS AN OUTFLANKING STRATEGY?

INDUSTRY INFLUENCE GENERALLY DOMINATES IN
FISHERIES DEPARTMENTS AND RFMOs

CONTINUING APPEALS THEN DIRECTED RATHER TO, EG,
THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY

MOTIVATED BY A CONCERN THAT STANDARD FISHERIES
MANAGEMENT WILL FAIL? – JUSTIFIED?
III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT
EG THE US MAGNUSSON-STEVENS ACT

AVOID OVERFISHING: F > FMSY

OVERFISHED: B < (0.5)BMSY - NEEDS RECOVERY
BUT
HOW WELL CAN WE ESTIMATE MSY AND BMSY?



FOR MOST USA STOCKS PROXIES HAVE TO BE USED
MIXED SPECIES FISHERIES - CHOKE STOCKS
NEW ENGLAND:
Only half of overall groundfish TACs landable
Fishery facing economic extinction
III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT
MORE REALISM NEEDED

DROP THE F < FMSY REQUIREMENT

MANAGE FOR GREATER CATCH STABILITY OVER TIME

ADVANCES IN SPECIES-INTERACTION MODELLING
ARE NEEDED
CAN ALL SPECIES IN A MIXED FISHERY DELIVER MSY, BMSY
SIMULTANEOUSLY?

BUT FOR CLEARLY DEPLETED STOCKS, INSIST ON
SOME INCREASE
BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS:
RISES IN THE REAL COST OF FUEL WILL NECESSITATE
HIGHER ABUNDANCES IN THE LONGER TERM
III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT
PROPERTY RIGHTS
NECESSARY FOR AN INCENTIVE TO CONSERVE
BUT

LIMITS (FISHERY SPECIFIC) ARE NEEDED ON
MAXIMUM HOLDINGS

RIGHTS IN PERPETUITY ARE OFTEN
POLITICALLY PROBLEMATIC
NEED SOME MECHANISM TO ALLOW LIMITED
CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM
IV) GOVERNANCE
WHAT WORKS?
AND IN CONTRAST
WHERE ARE THERE PROBLEMS AND WHY?
NO-ONE HAS A PERFECT SOLUTION

WHO SHOULD DETERMINE TACs?

CONTROL RULES vs AD HOC
NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY

COMMUNICATION
IV) GOVERNANCE
WHO SHOULD DETERMINE TACs?

THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE

THE US EXPERIMENT:
SCIENTIFIC (SSC) TAC ADVICE (BASED ON PRE-SET
GENERAL GUIDELINES) MAY NOT BE EXCEEDED

NOT IDEAL
IRRESPONSIBLE COMMENTS AND INSUFFICIENTLY
INTERESTED/EXPERIENCED PEOPLE
NEEDS A BALANCED GROUP OF SCIENTISTS,
MANAGERS AND STAKEHOLDERS
IV) GOVERNANCE
CONTROL RULES vs
AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY

THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE

RECENT MSC ADJUDICATION FOR CONROL RULES
SCIENTISTS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOUR THE CONTROL
RULE APPROACH
DON’T BE SCARED OF SUPPOSED INFLEXIBILITY

SOUND RULES WILL GIVE YOU (THROUGH DUE PROCESS)
GREATER STABILITY
BETTER PROTECTION AGAINST MAVERICK
INFLUENCES AND DECISIONS
IV) GOVERNANCE
COMMUNICATION
(THE INADEQUACY THEREOF)
MANAGERS AND INDUSTRY



SELDOM HAVE A GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF FISHERY
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES
OFTEN AREN’T PREPARED TO SPEND SUFFICIENT TIME
TO LEARN THEM
MANAGERS CHANGE TOO FREQUENTLY
SCIENTISTS


THEIR PRESENTATION STYLE IS GENERALLY
HOPELESSLY INAPPROPRIATE FOR LAY AUDIENCES
HOW RELIABLE ARE THEIR PROMISES OF GAIN
TOMORROW FROM PAIN TODAY? (New England???)
200% IMPROVEMENT NEEDED FROM
BOTH SIDES
V) WHAT SHOULD IDUSTRY BE DOING?

INVEST MORE IN SCIENCE AND FISHERY
INDEPENDENT SURVEYS

MAKE MORE USE OF CREDIBLE SCIENTIFIC
ADVISORS (AVOIDING THE HIRED GUN ROUTE)

IMPROVE INDUSTRY-GROUP CO-ORDINATION

BASE POSITIONS ON DEFENSIBLE PRINCIPLES
AVOID SHORT-TERM EXPEDIENCY, WHICH WILL
RETURN TO BITE YOU
Thank you for your attention