Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Ervaring rond transitie in Nederland in landbouw en voeding 5 november 2012, Krijn J. Poppe Aalst (B) Inhoud Een korte historie en stand van het transitie onderzoek in Nederland Enkele onderschatte aspecten in transities De rol van transitie en – innovatiebeleid ● Topsectorenbeleid ● EU: Horizon2020, GLB-post 2013 en EIP 2 Een korte historie en stand van het transitie onderzoek in Nederland Prof. Jan Rotmans (Rivm, Maastricht, Rotterdam – EUR/DRIFT) Maatschappelijk-technologisch onderzoek aan de TU’s (o.a. F. Geels, Multi-level perspective) KSI project Rotmans, Grin, Schot et al. NWO project rond Energie Wageningen UR: Kennisbasis-programma – naast systeem-innovatieprogramma’s, Vakgroepen LNV’s Innovatienet. Transforum Veel is inmiddels beeindigd en gepubliceerd Wat heeft het opgeleverd ? ● Wetenschappelijke output, die internationaal gebruikt wordt ● Aandacht voor transities en structurele verandering ● Discussies over transitie-management en beleid ● Resultaten van actie-onderzoek: nieuwe concepten (bv. Ronddeel als kippenstal) en (lokale) initiatieven (bv. Stadslandbouw Rotterdam) ● Als er al Rijksbeleid in transitiemanagement is geweest, dan weinig effectief want huidige structuren en business models werken nog volop ● Vgl. Energie, Mobiliteit, Voedsel 4 Enkele onderschatte aspecten in transities ● Rol van de consument (en technologie-adoptie) ● Zie Spaargaren et al. 2012 ● Roeselare, 1960s: van vlas naar vries ● De business cycle ● Political economy en machtsvraagstukken ● Energie ? ● Geo-politiek 5 The opportunity for green growth Degree ofverspreiding diffusion of the Mate van technological revoluton van technologische revolutie Installationperiode period Installatie Turning Draaipoint punt Crash Institutional Institutionele 2008 innovation innovatie Deployment Uitrol periode period RIJPHEID MATURITY 1929 Financiele Financialbubble bubble Decoupling in the system Onevenwichtigheden Polarisation poor and rich Polarisatie arm en rijk 1771 water , textile 1893 SYNERGIE SYNERGY 1847 1797 Last products & industries Techniek bereikt grenzen Market saturation Disappointment vs Marktverzadiging complacency Teleurstelling en gemakzucht 1829 steam, railways 1875DoorsteelBang Big 1908 car, oil, braak massproduction 1971 ICT chip INDRINGER IRRUPTION EXTASE FRENZY Goldeneeuw age Gouden Coherent growth Coherente groei Increasing externalities Toenemende externalities Unemployment Werkeloosheid Decline of old industries Stilstand oude bedrijfstakken Capital searches new techniques Kapitaal zoekt nieuwe techniek Based on Perez, Naar Perez, 20022002 Volgende Next golf wave time tijd Four scenarios on Scarcity and Transition National States Multipolair Non cooperative • Power blocks • Economic and politcal competition • Protectionism Multilateral • Strong west and upcoming BRICs • Global governance reformed • Globalisation continues Fragmentation Network •Stagnating globalisation •Insecure society •Identity first • Non-polair world order • Global market economy and civil society • Unpredictable Cooperative Many actors © De Ruijter Strategie 7 The Shell 2025 Scenario study – a geopolitics view De rol van transitie- en innovatiebeleid ● Transitie-management ● Rijksoverheidsbeleid maar tijdelijk van aard ● Landbouw: ● “de overheid houdt geen kippen” ● Consumentenbeleid achter de voordeur niet aantrekkelijk ● Liever de Productivity dan de Sufficiency narrative ● Topsectorenbeleid (na fusie LNV en EZ): bedrijfsleven veel meer aan het stuur ● EU: Horizon2020, GLB-post 2013 en EIP 9 EU’s SCAR Foresight: two narratives Productivity: Science has the potential to develop technologies that can boost productivity whilst addressing resource scarcities and environmental problems Massive investments needed in R&D, technology adoption, rural infrastructure, access to markets GRIN technologies (Genetics, Robotics, Informatics, Nano) Sufficiency: Science has the potential to develop technological solutions that are productive, reduce resource use, preserve biodiversity However, demand increases need to be mitigated, through behavorial change, structural changes food systems Appropriate governance structures to internalise externalities Economics: thinking on equilibrium and dis-eq. Adam Smith • • • • • • • 11 Ricardo Marshall Walras Coase Hayek Friedman Ostrom • F. List: infant industry • K. Marx: role of capitalist • J. Schumpeter: entrepreneur / business cycle • K. Arrow: market failure • O. Williamson: Inst. Econ. Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture Two views on innovation policy (Smits et al, 2010) Mainstream macro-economics Main assumptions Equilibrium Institutional and evolutionary economics: Systems of Innovation Dis-equilibrium Focus Perfect information Allocation of resources for invention Asymetric information Interaction in innovation processes Main policy Individuals Science / research policy Networks and frame conditions Innovation policy Market failure provide public goods Systemic problems solve problems in the system mitigate externalities facilitate creation new systems reduce barriers to entry facilitate transition and avoid lock-in eliminate inefficient market structures induce changes in the supporting structure for innovation: create institutions and support networking context specific Main rationale Government intervenes to main strengths of clarity and simplicity policies designed under analysis based on long term trends of this paradigm science-based indicators involvement of all policies related to innovation holistic approach to innovation difficult to implement main weaknesses of linear model of innovation policies designed under (institutional) framework conditions are not lack of indicators for analysis and evaluation this paradigm explicitly considered of policy 12 DIFFERENT MOTIVES NEED TO BE ADDRESSED Table S.1 Two types of motivation for research Aspect Incentive to program a topic Science driven research Emerging science that can contribute to solving a societal issue (or a scientific question) Innovation driven research An issue / problem in society that can be solved by new research, or a new idea to solve an existing issue Participation of users In demonstration phase / via research dissemination Quality criteria Focus Scientific quality Research organisations In agenda setting, defining the problem and during the research process Relevance (for the sector or a region) Networks of producers and users of knowledge Diffusion model Type of government policy Economic line of thinking (see table 2.1) Linear model Science / Research Policy Macro-economics System (network) approach Innovation Policy Systems of innovation Finance To a large extent public money: more speculative and large spill over effects Efficiency of scale (member states often too small), smart specialisation between member states, create European research market with harmonisation of hardand soft infrastructures Public-private partnerships very possible / advantageous Typical EU examples Horizon 2020, FP7, ERC, some ERAnets, Joint Programming Initiatives Type of research CAP: European Innovation Partnership, LEADER, European Technology Platforms, EIPs, some ERAnets Transdisciplinary and translational with close interactions. Interdisciplinary with absorption capacity in AKIS (to work with material science, ICT, chemistry SCAR Collaborative etc.). The role of the EU 13 Stimulate interaction and learning in Europe between national/regional AKIS. Enable in CAP innovation by networks with farmers Working Group AKIS Research & Innovation Framework: Steering Board European Innovation Partnership ‚Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability ‘ Rural Development Network Steering Group EIP Network • • • • • Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) Rural Development Committee ETPs, ERANets, JPIs, etc. Rural Development Policy: • • • • • • Knowledge transfer Cooperation Pilot projects Demonstration Advisory services Investment Research projects Multi-actor projects Pilot project clusters Innovation brokers On-farm experiments Operational Groups Member States Programmes Operational Groups Operational Groups Horizon 2020 Programme Committee Operational Groups Operational Groups Farmers . Advisers . Enterprises . Scientists. NGOs Scenario’s Sterke overheid Conserveren Ontwikkelen Veel ruimte voor markten en burgers Dank voor uw aandacht [email protected] www.lei.wur.nl