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UNSTAT TRADE DATA AS BASIS FOR ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION OF FOREST PRODUCTS TRADE FLOWS EFI Working Paper 17 Bruce Michie Philip Wardle 2 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle EFI Working Paper 17 UNSTAT Trade Data as Basis for Analysis and Projection of Forests Products Trade Flows Authors Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle Publisher European Forest Institute Torikatu 34, FIN-80100 Finland Tel. +358 13 252 020 Fax +358 13 124 393 Email: [email protected] WWW: http://www.efi.fi/ Sales The list of EFI publications and an order form can be found at the back of this volume. EFI Working papers are peer-reviewed by at least two external reviewers chosen by the Scientific Advisory Board of EFI. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the European Forest Institute. ISBN 952-9844-59-X ISSN 1237-5126 ©European Forest Institute 1998 UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 3 CONTENTS ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................... 4 FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................... 5 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................ 7 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY .................................................................................. 8 METHOD......................................................................................................................................... 8 ESTABLISHING A STANDARD INTERNATIONAL TRADE DATABASE............................. 9 STANDARDISING THE CLASSIFICATION..............................................................................10 STANDARDISING QUANTITY UNITS ................................................................................................................11 ESTIMATING MISSING TRADE FLOWS..............................................................................................................11 COMPARISON OF EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS REPORTS ..................................................................................12 VALIDATION OF THE ESTIMATED TRADE FLOW MATRIX...................................................................................13 CHANGING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL BOUNDARIES .......................................................................................14 REVIEW OF TRENDS AND RELATIONSHIPS TO ESTABLISH THE CONCEPTUAL BASIS FOR PROJECTING FUTURE TRADE DEVELOPMENT.............................................14 SHARE OF TRADE AND SHARE OF TRADING PARTNERS .....................................................................................14 PROJECTING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE............................................................18 CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................................................20 REFERENCES ...............................................................................................................................21 APPENDIX I ...................................................................................................................................22 SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED INFORMAL PRODUCT CODES) ................................22 APPENDIX II..................................................................................................................................26 SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED FAO PRODUCT CODES AND PRODUCT NAMES).........26 APPENDIX III ................................................................................................................................29 SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED FAO PRODUCT NAMES AND MT/CUM CONVERSIONS)29 APPENDIX IV ................................................................................................................................31 WORLD UNIT PRICE FOR CONIFEROUS SAWNWOOD .......................................................................................31 APPENDIX V..................................................................................................................................33 A COMPLETE SET OF TABLES AND GRAPHS OF PROJECTIONS ............................................................................33 4 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle ABSTRACT This study summarizes the statistical and analytical problems in utilising the UNSTAT COMTRADE trade data and the steps to establishing a credible data set for analysis of forest products trade flows. It explores the structure and dynamics of a limited set of 1983-95 coniferous sawnwood trade flows to provide an indication of the possibilities of improving our understanding of the past and of viewing possible future trade flows. Previously accessible international forest products databases were limited to information on total exports or imports of a commodity. This study demonstrates that the characterization of the broad structure of trade flows, and their variability and trends are useful and necessary in estimating future development of trade flows. An important conclusion is that it is possible and realistic to establish a comprehensive and credible database of annual bilateral trade flows covering all main forest products and all countries and this could be done for all years from 1961. With such a database one may examine the development of trade between any two individual countries, groups of countries or regions, both for major forest products individually and for the aggregate of all forest products. This type of analysis will provide an invaluable, indeed an essential component of EFI work on structural change in forest product markets. UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 5 FOREWORD More than a quarter of all forest products produced each year is traded internationally. Currently, the value traded is around $100 billion per year. Of this total, 45-50% is with European countries. Analysis of the structure and dynamics of this major economic activity in the forest sector is an essential part of the EFI research into structural changes in the markets for forest products. The main work on the development of international statistical information has been carried out in United Nations organisations, statistical information on the forest sector being a particular remit of the Food and Agriculture Organisation – FAO in Rome and the joint FAO/ECE (Economic Commission for Europe) division in Geneva. International trade statistics are collected by the UN Statistical Division (UNSTAT, formerly the UN Statistics Office). Because of the laborious process of exchanging manually recorded statistical information FAO and ECE collected forest product trade statistics directly from the member countries (this effort mainly involved the collection of total imports and exports from each country, although trade flows between a few large traders were also collected). Since the early 1970s, UN organisations have entered their statistical data into computer systems and UN and FAO yearbooks were generated from computer databases. By 1980 it was normal to exchange data in computer readable form. Comprehensive databases were developed which means that data are available on forest products in FAO (production, total imports and total exports) and on international trade (detailed trade flows) in the UN covering all years since 1961. For forest products trade (total annual imports and exports for each country) and trade flow data (annual trade between two individual countries) FAO and ECE depended on data reported by countries in questionnaires or in national trade yearbooks. Obtaining the latter usually involved a delay of a further year. The UN received a copy of the national trade yearbook and entered this into its database. In recent years it has received national trade yearbooks in computer readable form greatly accelerating the entry into the UN database. In the mid 1980s, FAO made a first exercise in extracting trade and trade flow data from the UN Statistical Office's Comtrade database. These data were then still several years in arrears so they did not provide an alternative for quick data collection, but they did allow the first comprehensive view of the structure and composition of past trade flows. They also made estimating the trade of non reporting countries through the information of trading partners a practicable proposition. This was possible but extremely laborious using written tabulations and practicable only in the case of a few major flows. From the point of view of analysis, the availability in computer readable form represented a leap forward in accessibility of trade flow data. The ability to analyse the detail of forest product trade flows has the potential to throw light on the structure and dynamics of international trade. The establishment of a standardised data bank of forest products trade flow data from the UNSTAT's Comtrade database provides the wealth of information that allows this analysis to proceed. In order to carry out a credible analysis the problem of imperfections of the available data (as will be described later in the document) have to be overcome using transparent methods to ensure that the distortion of inaccuracy or missinterpretation is avoided while at the same time drawing the greatest amount of information from the available data. The process of exploring this wealth of information was initiated through a consultancy to FAO by Gabor Kornai in the mid 1980s which allowed Franco Pontecorvi to develop the first comprehensive forest products trade flow tables from UNSO (now UNSTAT) computer readable data (FAO 1987). This was taken further by Bruce Michie (FAO 1991; FAO 1995; FAO/ECE 1995) and his work with the European Forest Institute in developing a manual for FAO to extract forest products trade flow data from the UNSO trade database (Michie, EFI Nov, 1995). This study summarises the analytical problems in utilising the UN trade data and the steps to establishing a credible data set for analysis of forest products trade flows. It explores the structure 6 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle and dynamics of a limited set of trade flows to provide an indication of the exciting possibilities of improving our understanding of the past and of projecting future trade flows. The credit for the data goes to the collaboration between countries of the World and the United Nations and FAO in establishing and maintaining arrangements for the regular collection of international data, agreeing and applying the standard classifications and coding and establishing the databases, to ensure that the data when collected are more or less compatible and readily accessible to users. We hope that this analytical study of those data may be seen as a natural outcome of the recent technological revolution that has greatly increased the potential to utilise the wealth of information that such databases represent for the benefit of better understanding the workings of the sector on which they report. We recognise that this is but a small first step in the direction towards using these data for the better understanding of forest products trade. This project was funded by a Joensuu City Scholarship. We would like to thank Matti Palo and the World Forests, Society and Environment project for supporting recent Trade Flow Database work. October 1998 Bruce Michie Philip Wardle UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 7 INTRODUCTION Trade is a major activity in the economy of the forest and forest products sector. About one quarter of the industrial forest products produced each year enter into international trade and this trade is valued at some $100 billion per year. Understanding the composition and behaviour of this activity is of vital importance to the decision-making, management and marketing of a substantial part of the industry. The information is also crucial to those who facilitate trade and provide infrastructure, the ports, the transport systems, the trading and financing organisations and the governmental organisations that handle trade relations and standards. The "trade flow" represents a summary of the volume and the value of the effort in production and transport, of all shipments of goods of a given category produced in one country and delivered to a second country in the course of one year. Information on trade flows helps to identify where the priority of those concerned with national forest products trade should be concentrated. Knowledge of international flows helps to indicate opportunities to develop markets and the supporting infrastructure to facilitate this. Information about the change in trade flows is essential to understanding the external factors influencing product trade and to assessing their impact. The power of comprehensive analysis in this area opens up completely new possibilities of understanding the existing information on trade in forest products and mobilising it for decision making on developing strategies to face the future. In the era of manual assembly and processing of data on trade in forest products it was possible to list and publish trade flows for only a few of the most important products and only between main trading partners (eg. FAO Yearbooks 1947-96, FAO/ECE Timber Bulletin for Europe 1947-96). These provided information on trade flows for 10-20 trading partners with comparative tables for 2 years. In the mid 1980s it became feasible to extract data on the trade flows from the computer readable database on trade developed by the UN Statistics Office. Processing and storage of these data remained a significant logistical problem, remembering that one was dealing with some 1 million flows in covering one year's trade in forest products. In the first efforts to extract, summarise and present these data, products were grouped into aggregates and the trade flows listed for all identified trading partners for one year (FAO 1987). From the point of view of increasing the estimation of trade flows towards comprehensive coverage the available import and export reports were merged to estimate missing trade flows of non-reporting countries from the flows reported by reporting countries (Kornai; in FAO 1987). Previous analyses of the dynamics of forest products trade have generally examined the pattern over time in the development of imports or exports of a product or of that product by a country or a region and has sometimes extended that to examination of the shifts in the pattern of trade flows between regions in order to understand the broad regional structure of world trade (FAO commodity reviews - various years; European timber trends and prospects – ETTSV 1996). The examination of the development of individual flows over time has been on an exceptional basis either relating to the particular flow between two countries or the development of flows of one product from one country to others. Starting in 1991, trade flow data from the UN Statistical Division's Comtrade data set has been analysed by FAO, Rome and published in the FAO Yearbook and the ECE/FAO Timber Bulletin series, after comparing the trade flow figures against country reports. The procedure for extraction, validation and preparation of a standard forest products trade matrix from the UN Comtrade database is described by Michie (EFI, Nov, 1995). In 1995 the European Forest Institute made a 8 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle test of presenting trade data on the Internet covering the full set of products found in the direction of trade tables of FAO's 1993 Yearbook of Forest Products (FAO 1995). This test covers 14 products or product aggregates for years 1992 and 1993. It used the same data as that used in preparing the tables published in the 1993 FAO Yearbook (FAO 1995) and 1992-3 ECE/FAO Timber Bulletin (ECE/FAO 1995). In these tables only the largest 15 exporters and largest 25 importers appear, while in the EFI Internet example all importers and exporters are included. The EFI example consisted of between 9000 and 10000 individual tables. AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY Work on trade flows mentioned above concentrated on the interpretation of existing data to establish comparable and comprehensive data on past trade flows. The aim in this study is to summarize the analytical problems in utilizing the UN trade data and to clarify the method of establishing a credible standard trade flow data set for analysis of forest products trade flows. A limited set of trade flow data is then used to demonstrate their suitability and feasibility as a basis for trade flow projections. The objectives of the study were to: 1) present the analytical procedure to establish a standard trade flow database; 2) develop a conceptual framework for projecting trade flows into the future identifying alternatives based on the trade flow database; 3) indicate relevance of this database to general studies of trade and the projection of future trade; and 4) in view of the value for international exchange of information, presentation of the resulting trade flow data on the Internet and in the form of an extractable database was tested. METHOD The development of an approach to projecting future trade flows involved the following steps: 1) The extraction of international trade flow data from the UN Comtrade database. 2) The establishment of a standard international trade database. 3) Review of the historical development of total trade and the trading partner composition of trade. 4) Review of trends and relationships in trade and trade flows to establish a conceptual basis for projecting future trade development. 5) Identify possibilities for projecting future development of trade flows and demonstration of their application. 6) Presentation of results. UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 9 ESTABLISHING A STANDARD INTERNATIONAL TRADE DATABASE The source of the trade data used in this study is the Commodity Trade Statistics Unit of the United Nations Statistical Division (UNSTAT). This data was efficiently provided by the Geneva office of UNSTAT. The UNSTAT Comtrade database records data from national trade yearbooks on all merchandise trade. Products are classified according to the standard international trade classification -SITC. This classifies, codes and defines all products. Since the inception of this classification, its coding and definitions have been revised on a number of occasions (SITC Rev1 UN 1961, SITC Rev2 UN 1975 and SITC Rev3 UN 1985). Revision 3 was made fully consistent with the Customs Co-operation Council (CCC) trade classification – the harmonised system – developed and adopted in the late 1980s (see FAO 1982). The CCC was recently renamed as the World Customs Organisation. In the development of a standard forest products trade flow database the product classification of FAO was adopted. This is somewhat simpler in its treatment of forest products than the above trade classifications and is oriented to needs of the forestry sector. (FAO yearbook of forest products 1995, FAO Working Group on Forestry statistics 1995, Classification and definition of forest products FAO 1982). Definitions • Sawnwood - sawnwood including sleepers, unplaned, planed, grooved, tongued, etc., sawn lengthwise or produced by a profile-chipping process ( eg. Planks, beams, joists, boards, rafters, scantlings, laths, boxboards, "lumber", etc.) and planed wood that may also be finger jointed, tongued or grooved, chamfered, rabbeted, v-jointed, beaded, etc. Wood flooring is excluded. With few exceptions sawnwood exceeds 5 mm in thickness. • Sawnwood (C) - sawnwood of coniferous species • Sawnwood (NC) -sawnwood of non-coniferous species (broadleaved species). • Industrial Roundwood - wood-in-the-rough (WIR) - this aggregate includes all industrial wood-in-the-rough (sawlogs and veneer logs, pulpwood and other industrial roundwood both of coniferous and non-coniferous species. Sawlogs, veneer logs and logs for sleepers whether or not roughly squared, to be sawn (or chipped) lengthwise for the manufacture of sawnwood or railway sleepers. Shingle bolts and stave bolts are included. Logs for the production of veneer, mainly by peeling and slicing. Match billets are included as are special growths (burls, roots, etc.) used for veneers. Wood-in-the-rough other than logs - for pulp, particle board or fibre board. Pulpwood may be barked or unbarked and may be in the form of roundwood or splitwood, Other industrial roundwood used for tanning, distillation, match blocks, gazogenes, poles, piling, posts, pitprops, etc. Source: FAO 1995. Yearbook of forest products 10 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle STANDARDISING THE CLASSIFICATION For this study historical data series (1983-1993) were constructed from the UNSTAT database for coniferous sawnwood, non-coniferous sawnwood and industrial roundwood - wood in the rough (WIR). This data series was extended to include data up to 1995 and a further 27 products have now been completed in addition to the original 3. Primarily coniferous sawnwood data will be used here due to the large number of graphs necessary to display the results of each product. Industrial roundwood (WIR) differs from the aggregate industrial roundwood (FAO product classification) in that chips, particles and wood residues are not included. The data extraction and standardisation involved selecting the appropriate SITC codes for the products desired, checking units and converting quantities recorded by weight (metric tons) to volume (cubic meters). Most products under FAO’s product classification system are aggregates of several SITC products. Data over the time period (1983-1995) consists of data from all three SITC revisions. Product definitions and the product content of the subdivisions have also changed from revision to revision. Appendixes 1 and 2 give the SITC codes and associated FAO products. Sometimes the same SITC product code refers to different products in different SITC revisions and it is impossible to follow important individual products through time due to changes in product definitions. Industrial roundwood (WIR) is the most refined product that can be followed through the three SITC revisions since in SITC Revision 3 pulpwood (which is a separate product in Rev. 1 and Rev 2) was first split into coniferous and non- coniferous and then aggregated with sawlogs and veneer logs C (coniferous) or sawlogs and veneer logs NC (non-coniferous), respectively to make industrial roundwood (WIR) C and industrial roundwood (WIR) NC (which can then be split into tropical and other on the basis of country of origin). The case of sawnwood products will illustrate the difficulties caused by different SITC revisions. The FAO product sawnwood C (coniferous) is made up of codes 2432 (sawnwood C, SITC Revision 1), 2482 (sawnwood C, SITC Revision 2), 2482 (sawnwood C, SITC Revision 3) and 2483, (parquet C, SITC Revision 3). In Revision 3 parquet flooring pieces are separated out from other sawnwood while this was not done for the previous revisions. The FAO product sawnwood NC (non-coniferous) is made up of SITC codes 2431, (sleepers, SITC Revision 1), 2433 (sawnwood NC, SITC Revision 1), 2481 (sleepers, SITC Revision 2), 2483 (sawnwood NC, SITC Revision 2), 2481 (sleepers, SITC Revision 3), 2484 (sawnwood NC, SITC Revision 3) and 2485 (parquet NC, SITC Revision 3). Notice that code 2483 refers to non-coniferous sawnwood under SITC Revision 2 and coniferous parquet flooring pieces under SITC Revision 3. Table 1 gives the number of countries reporting trade flow data by each SITC Revision for years 1983-1995 and the total number of countries for which trade is reported and estimated as a result of standardisation: UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 11 Table 1. Number of countries reporting according to SITC Revision SITC Revision Year Rev.1 Rev. 2 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 22 21 18 6 5 4 1 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 92 86 90 100 98 64 55 41 28 16 9 2 1 1 Rev. 3 Total Total (after standardization) 35 49 61 69 75 89 91 82 66 114 107 108 106 103 103 105 104 99 92 100 94 83 68 196 197 196 196 196 202 200 197 197 216 219 218 219 219 STANDARDISING QUANTITY UNITS Once the proper SITC codes were selected from each Revision it was then necessary to convert the units from metric tons (the most common unit found in the Comtrade data) to cubic meters (solid wood products only). Where data are reported in weight units a standard conversion factor is applied to convert to volume (Appendix 3). The next step is the cleaning of data to replace missing quantity data and to ensure that quantity and value data are consistent. Missing quantity data occurs when a value for a trade flow exists but no corresponding quantity data exists. Quantity data is considered to be inconsistent when the unit price of a trade flow is more than 5 times the appropriate average unit price or less than 1/5 of the average unit price. Substituting for missing or inconsistent data is done by first obtaining a world average unit price for the product and trade flow in question. Appropriate world average unit prices are calculated for imports and exports (Appendix 4, coniferous sawnwood only). Once the average unit price has been determined the missing quantity data is substituted by using an estimate calculated from the value of the trade flow and the average unit price. For veneer the procedure was modified to use average unit price of large exporters rather than world average unit price. These steps complete the standardisation of existing records. ESTIMATING MISSING TRADE FLOWS When an entire trade flow (both quantity and value) is missing then trading partner information is substituted for the missing reporting country information. This type of substitution occurs at the FAO product level. This is because a non-coniferous sawnwood trade flow might be reported by a reporting country under SITC 2 definitions (product code 2483) while the trading partner might report under SITC 3 definitions (product code 2484). The result would be double counting of the trade flow if trading partner substitution is done at the SITC product level. Another possibility is to use trading partner substitution only for countries that do not report any data at all. It should be noted that this method of substitution introduces a certain bias in that the trading partner data is entered unchanged as the estimate of the missing trade flow. This means that the value of 12 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle missing imports are underestimated by the use of the exporters (fob) value while the missing exports are over valued by the use of importers (cif) value. This step completes the estimation of the standard matrix of trade flows. The degree to which the final result has depended on the various types of estimate is indicated in table 2 below. The number of countries and territories for which estimates of import and export data can be identified is increased from 100 or less to 200 or more (see table 1). For Products measured in cubic metres only about 2 % of estimated total volume was originally reported in cubic meters; 70 - 84 % was converted from metric tons; 11 % was estimated from value by unit price substitution and 6 - 16 % was estimated from trading partner information. For products measured in metric tons around 90% was reported in tons. Unit price substitution accounted for 2-5% and trading partners for 5-7%. Table 2.% of estimates of world trade resulting from various standardisation steps. Products measured in cubic meters: Imports Exports Volume originally in cubic meters Volume converted from metric tons Volume estimated by Unit Price Calculation Estimated from Trading Partners Other corrections 3.50 77.20 11.40 6.30 1.50 1.6 70.5 11.4 16.0 .5 Products measured in metric tons: Volume originally in cubic meters Volume estimated by Unit Price Calculation Estimated from Trading Partners Other corrections Imports 87.50 4.80 7.50 .20 Exports 92.3 2.2 5.3 .2 COMPARISON OF EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS REPORTS When merging information from reporting countries and trading partners it is possible to compare the two figures collected from opposite ends of the same trade flow. In most cases the two figures for volume or value are very close to one another but they are almost never identical. This is because of the time lag between collection of paperwork in the exporting country, shipment to a port for export, storage at the port until the proper ship arrives, the time lost during international transport, storage at the receiving port until picked up by a local importer and the collection of paperwork by the importing country. Some shipments exported in one year would be imported the following year. If data is collected on a monthly basis then the importation of a particular shipment would almost always be reported in a different month from the exportation of the same shipment. Shipments recorded by an exporter as destined for a particular country may eventually, in some cases, be delivered to a different country. It is sometimes suggested that the two different volumes reported by the countries at opposite ends of the same trade flow should be averaged to give one result (or perhaps the larger of the two should be chosen). Either of these suggestions are suitable if the two volumes are very close to one another. However, often the two volumes reported for the same trade flow are substantially different (and sometimes one is negligible while the other is substantial). When there are substantial discrepancies between the two reported volumes there is no alternative to reporting both of them since one can never be sure which is the more accurate of the two. Comparison of the reports on the opposite ends of the same trade flow may give clues to the condition of the trading market. When, for instance, imports by a country (or generally) greatly exceed exports to that country a slowdown UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 13 of orders by be inferred. When exports from a country greatly exceed imports reported from that country then an increase in orders may be inferred. Similar changes in unit values would indicate increasing or decreasing prices. Having information from reporting countries and trading partners doubles the amount of information about a given trade flow. This can only help analysts studying trade. Gabor Kornai (FAO 1987) carried out a merger to create a unique trade flow between importer and exporter whereby the largest trade flow volume of the two reported by importer and exporter was always adopted. This was done to ensure that all missing flows were estimated by the trading partner report. It also meant that the larger of the two reports was adopted where both partners reported. This may lead to a bias towards overestimation. It also eliminated the possibility of comparing the reports of the two trading partners on opposite ends of the same trade flow as the original reporting data for one of the trading partners was completely lost in the standardised matrix (and it is impossible to know which was lost and which kept). The aggregate of reported value (unit and total) of imports is higher than the aggregate value of exports. Usually, this is true of the importers report of a trade flow compared with the exporters report of the same trade flow. This would of course be consistent with the difference between the importers report of a trade flow–including cost of insurance and freight (cif), compared with the exporters report of the same trade flow which includes only free on board (fob) costs. Inconsistencies in the value of apparently the same trade flow may of course arise for the same reasons listed for volume. The precise equality between the value of the estimate of a missing trade flow and the record of the trading partner, mentioned earlier, is of course biased, but correcting it would be problematical. VALIDATION OF THE ESTIMATED TRADE FLOW MATRIX The UNSO database consists of copies of country trade yearbooks concerned with all products with no special attention to forest products. FAO and ECE over the years have found it necessary to check national trade data with forest products expert information. This was done to ensure correct classification and particularly to ensure correct reporting of quantity data in standard forestry units as distinct from gross weight units. In developing the trade flow matrices (FAO 1995 and FAO/ECE 1995) the estimates obtained by the above procedures were further checked against national records to ensure the correct classification and magnitude of trade flows. Detail of trade flows was then revised so that the volume and value in the trade flow matrix was consistent with the independently derived estimates of total volume and value of trade that was previously determined. This process of revision is not necessary in the sequence used to arrive at the standard matrix of trade flows used in this study since trade flow details form the basis for calculating total imports and total exports rather than starting with total trade estimates (as is done by FAO) so that arbitrary adjustments are necessary to individual trade flows to make them add up to total trade estimates. Comparisons of total world trade figures shows quite close correspondence between value from UN and FAO which suggests one may have reasonable confidence in the broad magnitude and confidence that the trade data are coming from the same general population. The UN based volume has been derived using generalised conversion factors from weight units with no detailed external checking, while the FAO volume has the added benefit of having been derived from, or checked against national information on volume and one finds somewhat larger differences as a result. (Table 5, Appendix V). 14 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle CHANGING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL BOUNDARIES Countries have joined together and split apart over the 1983-1995 time period covered by the data. This forces one to aggregate data in one part of the time series so that it can be compared with data in other parts of the time series. This means that the Area of the Former Soviet Union (a country aggregate for data starting in 1993) is necessary to compare current data with historical data for ExUSSR (data prior to 1993). Since 1993 data is reported for 8 additional countries in Asia (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan) and 6 in Europe (Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova Republic and Ukraine). While Germany refers to the full country since 1991 and the aggregate of Germany NL (new states) and Germany FR (former Federal Republic of Germany) prior to unification. Ex-Czechoslovakia is used for data prior to 1993 while Czech Republic and Slovakia are used for data starting in 1993. Ex-Yugoslavia is used for data prior to 1993 while Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia and Yugoslavia (rump) are used for data starting in 1993. ExEthiopia, Ethiopia (rump) and Eritrea are necessary to follow Ethiopia data. Yemen, Yemen Democratic Republic, and Yemen Arab Republic are necessary to follow Yemen data through time. REVIEW OF TRENDS AND RELATIONSHIPS TO ESTABLISH THE CONCEPTUAL BASIS FOR PROJECTING FUTURE TRADE DEVELOPMENT A systematic review of the data on trade and trade flows over this period reveals certain characteristics which are helpful in the consideration of the information in the database as a foundation for estimating future development of trade and trade flows. SHARE OF TRADE AND SHARE OF TRADING PARTNERS We first review how particular countries participation in coniferous sawnwood trade varies over time. Table 1 in Appendix V and Figures 1 and 2 below show how participation in total trade in coniferous sawnwood of the five largest importers and the five largest exporters, varied over the 83 to 95 period. The five largest importers account on average for 72% of the total imports, while the five largest exporters account for 80% of total exports. In both cases these five countries are the five largest importers/exporters in every year during the period. The ranking among the five does vary over the period. Among importers Japan takes over from UK as second largest and Germany and Italy exchange places from time to time as 4th and 5th largest. Among exporters Sweden starts and finishes the period as 2nd largest, while USA moves from 4th to replace Finland in 3rd. The data suggests changes in the share of total trade, in several cases, over the period. Among importers the USA, with fluctuations, moves from 30% to around 45%, Japan moves from 6% to 11% and UK from 13% to 8%. The share of the rest of the world declines by 8%. Looking at exporters Canada increases from 41 to 54%, USA increases from 6 to 8% while the other majors decline and the rest of the worlds share of exports falls slightly. Thus looking at the major traders share we see fluctuations and shifts over time. The standard deviations about the mean (Appendix V, Table 1) indicate that, making the assumption that the share of any country is equal to its average share, for the five major traders would lead to estimates of share which deviate from actual by less than 15-20% in nine years out of ten. [This limit will be referred to as the deviation below]. UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 15 Reviewing individual trade flows among major importers, there are some examples of great stability – USA imported 99% from Canada with a deviation of less than 1%. Italy imported 59% from Austria with deviation less than 4%. For most countries the share of the larger partners (share more than 10%) tends to be moderately variable with deviation around 10%, while deviation of partners with small shares may be very large. An exception is the UK where shares of the major partners have deviations in the range 20 to 30%. (Appendix V) Turning to the flows from the major exporters, for most countries the share going to the larger partners is the more stable with deviations in the range 10 to 15 %. This stability may be primarily due to the fact that the large exporters usually depend on one or two large importers while large importers usually depend on one or two main exporters, in both cases accounting for more than 50% of their total. (Appendix V) If one were able to predict the trend in the change of a countries share of trade then one would expect to increase the precision of the estimate of share. Estimation of a linear trend in change of share in the case of USA and German imports (Figures 3 and 4) would provide no improvement in precision over an estimation of constant share. While it is not possible to test whether utilising the trend in the change of share over the historic period provides an accurate prediction of the trend for the future period it would be possible to test whether the trend for the first part of the historic period is a valid estimate of the trend in the second part of the period, thus providing an indication as to whether projecting the past trend in change of share will provide a better estimate than projecting constant shares. A further possibility would be to examine the past distribution of change in share from year to year and to generate a projection that reflects the past variability in the change from year to year. This review of the behaviour of shares of total trade of major traders and the share of trading partners indicates that the range of variation is least for the larger participants. Analysis indicates that for exporters and importers with largest shares, assumption of a constant share approximating the average share for the period will lead to estimates within 20% in nine cases out of 10. However, the number of large traders are limited and alternative trading partners for these large traders are limited. The trading partner shares for dominant partners as for example in the case of trade in coniferous sawnwood between Canada and US or Austria and Italy or North America and Japan can be easily predicted on percentage basis. Summing up on the possibilities of projecting future trading partner share in the total trade of a country from the trade flow data, there are three possibilities: • Projecting on the basis of constant share, either average for a past period or most recent. This has the merit on the evidence of this research that it is robust and it is manifestly simple. 16 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle Figure 1. Comparison of the world imports (a) and exports (b) of coniferous sawnwood 19831995, in percent. Figure 2. Comparison of the world imports (a) and exports (b) of coniferous sawnwood 19831995, in mill. m3. UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 17 Figure 3. German coniferous sawnwood imports from major trading partners 1983-1995 (% and millions of cubic meters). Figure 4. USA coniferous sawnwood imports from major trading partners in 1983-1995 (% and millions of cubic meters). 18 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle • Projecting on the basis of trend in past share – there may be cases where this improves precision of the estimate • Projecting on the basis of the random distribution of changes in past periods. However, this study is not intended to provide final answers but to consider possibilities. Ideally, trade would be driven by price or GDP. Our intention here is to show that trade flows are not random but rather that they follow reasonable (and potentially predictable) trends. PROJECTING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE At first glance it would seem that for projecting trade the logical starting point would be production and consumption at the individual country level. The need for goods and services that are not available locally (or the ability to produce goods and services in excess of local needs) would provide the incentive for trade. The full set of information that will define the problem is consumption and production for each country as well as a matrix of trade flows between countries. Excess production (or imports) would result in a short term increase in stocks but our discussion here will not explicitly deal with stocks. Pajuoja and Brooks (1997) reviewed the existing long term forecasts of world consumption and production of roundwood and forest products. Their conclusion is that many of the economic relationships are not amenable to additional modelling work due to our poor understanding of the behavioural responses involved. The data needed to parameterize many of the relationships simply does not exist. Zhang D. and J. Buongiorno (forthcoming) studied the demand, supply and trade of forest products in Asia-Pacific region. While their study is extremely useful it would have been much more informative and reliable if trade flows were used to describe the trends so that readers could follow trends such as internal trade within Asia and Pacific, imports to Asia and pacific from other regions and exports from Asia and Pacific to other regions. Endogenous variables affecting levels of trade flows would be GDP levels in the importing countries, a measure of manufacturing productivity (for those products which require manufacturing), the inventory levels of standing trees available as raw material and finally the currency exchange rate between the trading partners (and possibly the exchange rate between the importer and alternative exporters that act as competitors). Further complications would involve the possibility of importing a raw material (e.g. logs) and exporting a manufactured product (e.g. sawnwood). In this case exchange rates between the supplier of logs and the manufacturer of sawnwood would be important as would the exchange rate between the manufacturer of sawnwood and the importer of the sawnwood. When exchange rates have been constant for a long period, local product price may be used as an edogenous variable that is independent of exchange rates (which normally would be exogenous). A change in an exporting country's exchange rate results in a change in the cost (in local currency terms) of supplying forest products to the international market relative to the prevailing international price (usually measured in US dollars) while the cost by an importing country of buying forest products from the international market (at the same prevailing international price) changes with the importing countries exchange rate. At a fixed international price the amount of products supplied to the international market by an exporter would ordinarily be expected to go up and down with that country's exchange rate and an importer's demand for forest products from the international market would be expected to go up and down with that county's exchange rates. The international price would go up or down in response to the relationship between the aggregate amount demanded by UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 19 importers and the aggregate supply offered by exporters at the current prevailing international price. However, large exporters might continue to export at constant levels (and fixed international prices) despite strong currencies (in order to maintain market share) or they may initiate competitive devaluations. Long term supply agreements or other special arrangements between large traders create further difficulties when trying to model trade. Due to the nature of exchange rates when the currency of a large exporter (or large importer) becomes strong the currency of other large exporters (or large importers) become weak so that the total amount of forest products exported and imported remains more or less the same. Therefore the international price of forest products remains relatively constant in spite of rather violently fluctuating currency exchange rates. In this study we chose to simplify the problem in order to achieve results that will provide a frame of reference from which more detailed studies can later be built. Looking first at total world imports and exports allows (or forces) the analyst to take into account the fact that total world imports and total world exports must be in approximate balance. Table 5 Appendix V shows that world import and export volumes estimated from this database are not consistently related over the period. This indicates that the analyst will have to give particular attention to data discrepancies in utilising the data. Next, the historical patterns of trade by individual countries gives valuable information about future trends. If one first projects total world imports and exports it is relatively simple to allocate these totals to regions and individual countries on the basis of their recent historical contribution to total world imports and exports. Once this was accomplished, the origins of imports (and the destinations of exports) can be determined by looking at the historical pattern of trade flows between countries. This yields two sets of information (since importers and exporters view trade from opposite ends of the same trade flows) which could be studied for incompatibilities. Exogenous information such as expected policy changes by exporting countries or limits to future supply resulting from deforestation might cause large discrepancies between the desires of a set of importers to import from a particular exporter and that exporter's ability to export at the levels desired. To account for changes in percentage makeup of the various trading partners of major traders the trend from recent years is, here, assumed to continue into the future. As a demonstration of this method sample projections have been made of imports and exports for the world's 13 largest importers and 13 largest exporters of coniferous sawnwood. The projection scheme is very simple. Figure 4 of regression of world coniferous sawnwood trade indicates growth in the range 3-4% over the period 1983-1996. For simplicity of the demonstration, a world wide growth rate of 1.5% was chosen for coniferous sawnwood. Then the levels of imports and exports for each country or region was assigned proportionally based on the percentage makeup of the data over the period 1993-1995. The change in percentage makeup of trading partners between periods 1990-1992 and 1993-1995 was assumed to continue into the future. Trade flows for countries that were not included in the set of 13 largest importers and exporters were aggregated together and give the balance of world trade. Adding up the imports and exports for the 13 largest plus the balance gives total world imports and exports. Graphs of imports to Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and USA of coniferous sawnwood from their 5 largest trading partners and exports from Canada, Finland, Sweden, USA and the Area of the Former USSR to their 5 largest trading partners are included here. These results are shown in Appendix V. 20 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle CONCLUSIONS Forest products trade flow data and techniques to analyse trade flow data are available which make practical the construction of time series of trade flows and to project these trade flows into the future. In order to carry out this study it was necessary to obtain trade flow data, analyze the data for a relatively long time series and then to construct a method for making projections. The size of the raw trade flow database is such that it can not be inspected directly. In the past when we encountered problems (by attempting to do a study such as the one discussed in this paper) they could only be solved in the next round of analyses. Since this paper was undertaken we have been able to study problems in the data after it was processed and to make corrections without the need to reprocess the data. We have also added additional steps to the set of standard procedures used for analyzing the raw trade flow data. We hope that this extremely basic study will be followed by other studies that will better demonstrate the richness of the trade flow database that is now available. In general we conclude that the UNSTAT COMTRADE database provides a data source that permits the construction of a credible and comprehensive database of forest product trade flows. This gives access to estimates of the magnitude in value and volume of annual bilateral trade flows between individual country pairs. It provides two estimates of this flow when both counties report. The data set contains estimates of all bilateral trade flows recorded by one or both of the trading partners; for all countries, products and years identified in the data set. Analysis of the bilateral trade flows over time, individually or in aggregate, permits estimation of trends and variability in the pattern of trade flows and total trade in a product or product aggregate. This study was limited to examination of trade flows for one product–sawnwood. The study demonstrates that the characterisation of the broad structure of trade flows, and their variability and trends will be useful and necessary in estimating future development of trade flows. The examination of the trade flow structure which becomes possible with the availability of this database will also have value in understanding behaviour of total trade. Previously accessible international forest products databases were limited to information on total exports or imports of a commodity. The availability of the trade flow data permits a much fuller examination of the evolution of the structure of trade between countries and regions. The really important news from this study is that it is possible and realistic to establish a comprehensive and credible database of annual bilateral trade flows covering all main forest products and all countries and this could be done for all years from 1961. With such a database one may examine the development of trade between any countries, groups of countries or regions, both for major forest products individually and for the aggregate of all forest products. This type of analysis will provide an invaluable, indeed an essential component of EFI work on structural change in forest product markets. UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 21 REFERENCES Zhang, D. and Buongiorno. J. (forthcoming) Demand, Supply and Trade of Forest Products in Asia-Pacific. In Palo, M. and Uusivuori, J. (eds.) World Forests, Society and Environment. Kluwer Academic Publishers. FAO 1982. Classification and definitions of forest products. Rome, Italy. FAO 1987. Forest products : the direction of trade 1976, 1981, 1982. Rome, Italy. FAO 1991. Forest products: the direction of trade 1985-1989. Rome, Italy. FAO 1995. Yearbook of forest products 1993. Rome, Italy. FAO, various years. Commodity Review. Rome, Italy. FAO/ECE 1993 and 1995. Forest products trade flow data. New York, USA and Geneva, Switzerland. Michie, B. Nov 1995. Manual of procedure – Analysis of international trade data on forest products. European Forest Institute. Joensuu, Finland. Pajuoja, H and Brooks, D. 1997. Long term forecasts of world consumption and production of roundwood and forest products. In. Saastamoinen, O. and Tikka, S. Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Mekrijärvi, Finland, March 1996. UN 1961. Standard international trade classification – SITC revision. New York, USA. UN 1975. Standard international trade classification–SITC rev.2. New York, USA. UN 1985. Standard international trade classification–SITC rev.3. New York, USA. 22 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle APPENDIX I SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED INFORMAL PRODUCT CODES) SITC Product Code 2411 24501 24501 SITC Informal Revision Product Code 1 2 3 1010 1021 1031 Informal Product Name Fuelwood + Waste Fuelwood Fuelwood 2412 24502 24502 1 2 3 1012 1022 1032 Charcoal Charcoal Charcoal 2422 2471 2474 1 2 3 1110 1120 1131 Sawlogs + Veneer C Sawlogs + Veneer C IND-RWD-WIR (C) 2423 2472 2475 1 2 3 1210 1220 1231 Sawlogs + Veneer NC Sawlogs + Veneer NC IND-RWD-WIR (NC) 2421 24601 1 2 1311 1321 Pulpwood Round and Split Pulpwood Round and Split 24602 2461 2 3 1322 1332 Chips and Parts Chips and Parts 24603 2462 2 3 1323 1333 Wood Residues/Sawdust Wood Residues/Sawdust 2424 2429 2473 2479 1 1 3 2 1411 1410 1432 1423 Pitprops O I Rwd Poles/Pilings Oth I Rndwd (Treated) Pitprops/Poles/Pilings 2431 2481 2481 1 2 3 2111 2121 2131 Sleepers Sleepers Sleepers 2432 2482 2482 2483 1 2 3 3 2211 2221 2231 2232 Sawnwood C Sawnwood C Sawnwood C Parquet C 2433 2483 2484 2485 1 2 3 3 2311 2321 2331 2332 Sawnwood NC Sawnwood NC Sawnwood NC Parquet NC 6311 6341 6341 1 2 3 3111 3121 3131 Veneer Veneer Veneer UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows SITC Product Code 6312 6342 6343 63441 6344 SITC Informal Revision Product Code 1 2 3 2 3 3210 3220 3230 3221 3231 Informal Product Name Plywood Plywood Plywood Blockboard/Laminboard Blockboard/Laminboard 63142 63432 63422 63423 1 2 3 3 3311 3321 3331 3332 Particle Board Particle Board Particle Board Particle Board Ottw 6416 64161 63451 63452 64162 63453 63459 1 2 3 3 2 3 3 3410 3421 3431 3432 3522 3533 3534 Fibreboard 1 Fibreboard Comp 1 Fibreboard Comp 1 Fibreboard Comp 2 Fibreboard non Comp 1 Fibreboard non Comp 2 Fibreboard 2 2512 2512 2512 1 2 3 4111 4121 4131 Mechanical Wood Pulp Mechanical Wood Pulp Mechanical Wood Pulp 2519 25191 25191 1 2 3 4211 4221 4231 Semi-Chemical Semi-Chemical Semi-Chemical 25171 25171 2514 1 2 3 4311 4321 4331 Unbleached Sulphate Unbleached Sulphate Unbleached Sulphate 25172 25172 2515 1 2 3 4411 4421 4431 Bleached Sulphate Bleached Sulphate Bleached Sulphate 25181 25181 25161 1 2 3 4511 4521 4531 Unbleached Sulphite Unbleached Sulphite Unbleached Sulphite 25182 25182 25162 1 2 3 4611 4621 4631 Bleached Sulphite Bleached Sulphite Bleached Sulphite 2516 2516 2513 1 2 3 4711 4721 4731 Dissolving Dissolving Dissolving 2515 25192 25192 1 2 3 4811 4821 4831 Other Fibre Pulp Other Fibre Pulp Other Fibre Pulp 2511 2511 2511 1 2 3 4911 4921 4931 Recovered Paper Recovered Paper Recovered Paper 23 24 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle SITC Product Code 6411 6411 6411 SITC Informal Revision Product Code 1 2 3 5111 5121 5131 Informal Product Name Newsprint Newsprint Newsprint 6412 6412 6412 6413 1 2 3 3 5211 5221 5231 5232 Printing + Writing P 1 Printing + Writing P 1 Printing + Writing P 1 Printing + Writing P 2 6413 6413 6414 1 2 3 5311 5321 5331 Other Pap + P (Kraft) Other Pap + P (Kraft) Other Pap + P (Kraft) 6415 1 5312 Other Pap + Paperbd A 6417 1 5313 Handmade Pap 6418 6417 2 3 5324 5334 Other Pap + P (Coated) Other Pap + P (Coated) 6417 6416 2 3 5325 5335 Other Pap + (Corrug) Other Pap + (Corrug) 6419 1 5316 Other Pap + Paperbd B 6415 3 5337 Other Pap + (Uncoated) 6415 2 5328 Other Pap + Paperbd C 24401 24401 24403 24404 1 2 3 3 6111 6121 6132 6133 Cork Unworked or Waste Cork Unworked or Waste Ck Raw or Simply Workd Cork Waste or Ground 24402 24402 24402 1 2 3 6211 6221 6231 Cork in Blocks/Sheets Cork in Blocks/Sheets Cork in Blocks/Sheets 63301 63301 6331 1 2 3 6511 6521 6531 Articles of Nat Cork Articles of Nat Cork Articles of Nat Cork 63302 63302 6332 1 2 3 6611 6621 6631 Agglom Cork and Arts Agglom Cork and Arts Agglom Cork and Arts 63141 63431 63421 1 2 3 7011 7021 7032 Improved Wood Improved Wood Densified Wood 6321 6351 6351 1 2 3 7211 7221 7231 Boxes Drums/Parts of Boxes Drums/Parts of Boxes Drums/Parts of UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows SITC Product Code 6322 6352 6352 SITC Informal Revision Product Code 1 2 3 7311 7321 7331 Informal Product Name Cooperage Products Cooperage Products Cooperage Products 6324 6353 6353 1 2 3 7411 7421 7431 Builders Joinery Builders Joinery Builders Joinery 6327 6354 6354 1 2 3 7511 7521 7531 Domestic or Decorative Domestic or Decorative Domestic or Decorative 6328 6359 6359 1 2 3 7611 7924 7631 Wood Manufactures NES Articles of Wood NES Wood Manufactures NES 63442 63443 2 2 7721 7821 Wood Marquetry Cellular Wood Panels 6318 6349 6349 1 2 3 7911 7922 7933 Wd Simply Shaped NES 1 Wd Simply Shaped NES 2 Wd Simply Shaped NES 3 6421 6421 6421 1 2 3 9111 9121 9131 Paper Bags and Boxes Paper Bags and Boxes Paper Bags and Boxes 6422 6422 6422 1 2 3 9211 9221 9231 Envelopes/Letter Pads Envelopes/Letter Pads Envelopes/Letter Pads 6423 6423 6423 1 2 3 9311 9321 9331 Registers/Memo Blocks Registers/Memo Blocks Registers/Memo Blocks 6429 6428 6429 6424 6424 6419 1 2 3 2 3 3 9411 9422 9433 9521 9532 9631 Articles of Pap NES 1 Articles of Pap NES 2 Articles of Pap NES 3 Paper Cut to Size 1 Paper Cut to Size 2 Converted Paper NES 25 26 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle APPENDIX II SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED FAO PRODUCT CODES AND PRODUCT NAMES) SITC Product Code 2411 24501 24501 SITC Revision 1 2 3 FAO Product Code 1629 1629 1629 FAO Product name Fuelwood Fuelwood Fuelwood 2412 24502 24502 1 2 3 1630 1630 1630 Charcoal Charcoal Charcoal 2422 2471 2474 1 2 3 1601 1601 1651 IND-RWD-WIR (C) IND-RWD-WIR (C) IND-RWD-WIR (C) 2423 2472 2475 1 2 3 1604 1604 1867 IND-RWD-WIR (NC) IND-RWD-WIR (NC) IND-RWD-WIR (NC) 2421 24601 1 2 1614 Pulpwood Round and Split 1614 Pulpwood Round and Split 24602 2461 2 3 1619 1619 Chips and Parts Chips and Parts 24603 2462 2 3 1620 1620 Wood Residues Wood Residues 2424 2429 2473 2479 1 1 3 2 1871 1871 1871 1871 Other Ind Roundwood Other Ind Roundwood Other Ind Roundwood Other Ind Roundwood 2431 2481 2481 1 2 3 1633 1633 1633 Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) 2432 2482 2482 2483 1 2 3 3 1632 1632 1632 1632 Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (C) 2433 2483 2484 2485 1 2 3 3 1633 1633 1633 1633 Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) 6311 6341 6341 1 2 3 1634 1634 1634 Veneer Veneer Veneer UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows SITC Product Code 6312 6342 6343 63441 6344 SITC Revision 1 2 3 2 3 FAO Product Code 1640 1640 1640 1640 1640 FAO Product name Plywood Plywood Plywood Plywood Plywood 63142 63432 63422 63423 1 2 3 3 1646 1646 1646 1646 Particle Board Particle Board Particle Board Particle Board 6416 64161 63451 63452 64162 63453 63459 1 2 3 3 2 3 3 3410 1649 1649 1649 1650 1650 1650 Fibreboard 1 Fibreboard Comp Fibreboard Comp Fibreboard Comp Fibreboard non Comp Fibreboard non Comp Fibreboard non Comp 2512 2512 2512 1 2 3 1654 1654 1654 Mechanical Wood Pulp Mechanical Wood Pulp Mechanical Wood Pulp 2519 25191 25191 1 2 3 1655 1655 1655 Semi-Chemical Semi-Chemical Semi-Chemical 25171 25171 2514 1 2 3 1662 1662 1662 Unbleached Sulphate Unbleached Sulphate Unbleached Sulphate 25172 25172 2515 1 2 3 1663 1663 1663 Bleached Sulphate Bleached Sulphate Bleached Sulphate 25181 25181 25161 1 2 3 1660 1660 1660 Unbleached Sulphite Unbleached Sulphite Unbleached Sulphite 25182 25182 25162 1 2 3 1661 1661 1661 Bleached Sulphite Bleached Sulphite Bleached Sulphite 2516 2516 2513 1 2 3 1667 1667 1667 Dissolving Dissolving Dissolving 2515 25192 25192 1 2 3 1668 1668 1668 Other Fibre Pulp Other Fibre Pulp Other Fibre Pulp 2511 2511 2511 1 2 3 1669 1669 1669 Recovered Paper Recovered Paper Recovered Paper 27 28 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle SITC Product Code 6411 6411 6411 SITC Revision 1 2 3 FAO Product Code 1671 1671 1671 FAO Product name Newsprint Newsprint Newsprint 6412 6412 6412 6413 1 2 3 3 1674 1674 1674 1674 Printing + Writing Pap Printing + Writing Pap Printing + Writing Pap Printing + Writing Pap 6413 6413 6414 1 2 3 1675 1675 1675 Other Pap + Paperboard Other Pap + Paperboard Other Pap + Paperboard 6415 1 1675 Other Pap + Paperboard 6418 6417 2 3 1675 1675 Other Pap + Paperboard Other Pap + Paperboard 6417 6416 2 3 1675 1675 Other Pap + Paperboard Other Pap + Paperboard 6419 1 1675 Other Pap + Paperboard 6415 3 1675 Other Pap + Paperboard 6415 2 1675 Other Pap + Paperboard UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 29 APPENDIX III SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED FAO PRODUCT NAMES AND MT/CUM CONVERSIONS) SITC Product Code 2411 24501 24501 SITC Revision MT/CUM conversion (1000 MT) 1 1380 2 1380 3 1380 FAO Product Name Fuelwood Fuelwood Fuelwood 2412 24502 24502 1 2 3 1000 1000 1000 Charcoal Charcoal Charcoal 2422 2471 2474 1 2 3 1430 1430 1430 IND-RWD-WIR (C) IND-RWD-WIR (C) IND-RWD-WIR (C) 2423 2472 2475 1 2 3 1250 * 1250 * 1250 * IND-RWD-WIR (NC) IND-RWD-WIR (NC) IND-RWD-WIR (NC) * France = 1667 2421 24601 1 2 1480 Pulpwood Round and Split 1480 Pulpwood Round and Split 24602 2461 2 3 1480 ** 1480 ** ** Japan = 1925 ** USA = 1925 ** Australia = 2250 Chips and Parts Chips and Parts 24603 2462 2 3 1480 1480 Wood Residues Wood Residues 2424 2429 2473 2479 1 1 3 2 1330 1330 1330 1330 Other Ind Roundwood Other Ind Roundwood Other Ind Roundwood Other Ind Roundwood 2431 2481 2481 1 2 3 1280 1280 1280 Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) 2432 2482 2482 2483 1 2 3 3 1820 1820 1820 1820 Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (C) 2433 2483 2484 2485 1 2 3 3 1430 1430 1430 1430 Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) Sawnwood (NC) 30 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle SITC Product Code 6311 6341 6341 SITC Revision MT/CUM conversion (1000 MT) 1 1330 2 1330 3 1330 FAO Product Name Veneer Veneer Veneer 6312 6342 6343 63441 6344 1 2 3 2 3 1540 1540 1540 1540 1540 Plywood Plywood Plywood Plywood Plywood 63142 63432 63422 63423 1 2 3 3 1540 1540 1540 1540 Particle Board Particle Board Particle Board Particle Board 6416 64161 63451 63452 64162 63453 63459 1 2 3 3 2 3 3 2000 1053 *** 1000 *** 1500 *** 4000 **** 2500 **** 1250 **** Fibreboard 1 *** Sweden = 1000 **** Sweden = 2850 UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows APPENDIX IV WORLD UNIT PRICE FOR CONIFEROUS SAWNWOOD FAO Product Code 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 Informal Product Code 2211 2211 2211 2211 2211 2211 2211 2211 2211 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2221 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2231 2232 Import Year $ / m3 or Export Imports 1984 183 Imports 1985 189 Imports 1986 132 Imports 1987 155 Exports 1983 143 Exports 1984 129 Exports 1985 127 Exports 1986 102 Exports 1987 142 Imports 1983 150 Imports 1984 146 Imports 1985 138 Imports 1986 160 Imports 1987 190 Imports 1988 189 Imports 1989 211 Imports 1990 235 Imports 1991 197 Imports 1992 199 Imports 1993 228 Imports 1994 296 Exports 1983 127 Exports 1984 126 Exports 1985 118 Exports 1986 141 Exports 1987 169 Exports 1988 165 Exports 1989 91 Exports 1990 175 Exports 1991 191 Exports 1992 179 Exports 1993 150 Exports 1994 164 Imports 1988 209 Imports 1989 157 Imports 1990 183 Imports 1991 175 Imports 1992 170 Imports 1993 177 Imports 1994 197 Imports 1995 195 Exports 1988 136 Exports 1989 142 Exports 1990 157 Exports 1991 150 Exports 1992 159 Exports 1993 162 Exports 1994 177 Exports 1995 179 Imports 1988 495 31 32 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle FAO Product Code 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 1632 Informal Product Code 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 2232 Import Year $ / m3 or Export Imports 1989 457 Imports 1990 560 Imports 1991 493 Imports 1992 461 Imports 1993 416 Imports 1994 435 Imports 1995 523 Exports 1988 454 Exports 1989 483 Exports 1990 465 Exports 1991 553 Exports 1992 642 Exports 1993 602 Exports 1994 626 Exports 1995 641 UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows 33 APPENDIX V A COMPLETE SET OF TABLES AND GRAPHS OF PROJECTIONS Table 1. Sawnwood C. Total trade by major trading country 1983-1993 Table 2. Sawnwood C. % Trade by trading partners (Imports) 1983-93 Table 3. Sawnwood C. Quantity Trade by trading partners (Exports) 1983-93 Table 4. Sawnwood C. % Trade by trading partners (Imports) 1983-93 Table 5. Sawnwood C. Quantity Trade by trading partners (Exports) 1983-93 Figure 1. World coniferous sawnwood imports, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. Figure 2. World coniferous sawnwood exports, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. Figure 3. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Germany, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 4. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Italy, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 5. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Japan, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 6. Coniferous sawnwood imports / UK, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 7. Coniferous sawnwood imports / USA, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 8. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Canada, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 9. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Finland, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 10. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Sweden, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 11. Coniferous sawnwood exports / USA, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 12. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Area of former USSR, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 34 Table 1. Sawnwood C. Total trade by major trading country 1983-1993 1983 4007 3638 3750 7592 17340 18671 54998 1985 3225 3501 3879 6583 20564 18603 56356 1990 4589 4495 8622 8404 28643 22225 76978 1991 4504 4502 9057 6371 27696 21039 73169 1992 5150 4702 8425 6569 36021 20886 81753 1993 5382 4339 9896 6140 41284 20633 87675 1994 6127 4860 10111 7274 42559 23832 94763 1995 5215 4715 11164 5026 44931 24462 95513 1996 5742 4777 10702 6331 44212 23665 95430 2000 6094 5070 11359 6720 46926 25117 101286 Average 4418 4232 7199 7387 28071 20516 71823 Std Dev 848 476 2739 1278 10573 2132 15553 Exports, 1000 m3 Canada Finland Sweden USA Area of Fmr USSR Balance World 1983 25591 6254 8259 4130 3923 12210 60368 1985 28884 6216 7668 3577 3678 11527 61551 1990 42593 4080 6236 7084 7841 14959 82793 1991 41190 3906 6596 7356 4035 13996 77080 1992 43173 4262 7950 7175 3240 14347 80147 1993 49095 6215 9640 6482 3763 15069 90263 1994 51370 8464 10060 5719 4943 18130 98686 1995 54332 6950 9828 5162 6240 17863 100375 1996 53147 7426 10138 5962 5131 17531 99335 2000 56408 7881 10760 6327 5446 18607 105430 Average 38157 5874 7856 5720 4691 14184 76482 Std Dev 10405 1285 1281 1483 1277 2085 14651 Imports, % Germany Italy Japan UK USA Balance World 1983 7.3 6.6 6.8 13.8 31.5 33.9 100 1985 5.7 6.2 6.9 11.7 36.5 33.0 100 1990 6.0 5.8 11.2 10.9 37.2 28.9 100 1991 6.2 6.2 12.4 8.7 37.9 28.8 100 1992 6.3 5.8 10.3 8.0 44.1 25.5 100 1993 6.1 4.9 11.3 7.0 47.1 23.5 100 1994 6.5 5.1 10.7 7.7 44.9 25.1 100 1995 5.5 4.9 11.7 5.3 47.0 25.6 100 1996 6.0 5.0 11.2 6.6 46.3 24.8 100 2000 6.0 5.0 11.2 6.6 46.3 24.8 100 Average 6.2 6.0 9.7 10.9 37.9 29.3 Std Dev 0.5 0.7 2.1 3.3 6.6 3.7 Exports, % Canada Finland Sweden USA Area of Fmr USSR Balance World 1983 42.4 10.4 13.7 6.8 6.5 20.2 100 1985 46.9 10.1 12.5 5.8 6.0 18.7 100 1990 51.4 4.9 7.5 8.6 9.5 18.1 100 1991 53.4 5.1 8.6 9.5 5.2 18.2 100 1992 53.9 5.3 9.9 9.0 4.0 17.9 100 1993 54.4 6.9 10.7 7.2 4.2 16.7 100 1994 52.1 8.6 10.2 5.8 5.0 18.4 100 1995 54.1 6.9 9.8 5.1 6.2 17.8 100 1996 53.5 7.5 10.2 6.0 5.2 17.6 100 2000 53.5 7.5 10.2 6.0 5.2 17.6 100 Average 49.2 7.9 10.5 7.5 6.2 18.7 Std Dev 4.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle Imports, 1000 m3 Germany Italy Japan UK USA Balance World 3 Table 2. Sawnwood C. Trade by trading partners (imports) 1983-1993, %, totals in 1000 m 1985 12.5 14.7 3.9 29.4 13.2 26.3 3225 1990 13.6 12.8 9.5 25.5 12.7 25.9 4589 1991 11.1 14.7 9.4 28.7 13.2 22.9 4504 1992 9.4 14.3 13.2 29.0 11.2 22.9 5150 1993 8.6 15.1 14.5 28.9 13.2 19.7 5382 1994 10.0 16.1 12.9 26.4 12.6 22.1 6127 1995 6.3 16.3 12.5 20.5 19.6 24.9 5215 1996 8.3 15.9 13.4 25.1 15.1 22.2 5742 2000 7.9 16.2 13.7 24.2 15.5 22.5 6094 Average 11.8 15.2 7.9 26.7 14.2 24.2 4418 Std Dev 2.6 1.3 4.3 2.5 2.1 2.0 848 Italy / Imports, % Austria Germany Sweden USA Area of Fmr USSR Balance Italy 1983 59.9 2.3 9.4 7.3 9.6 11.6 3638 1985 59.6 2.9 6.9 6.0 12.3 12.3 3501 1990 61.0 3.1 5.4 5.6 9.7 15.3 4495 1991 59.0 5.6 5.1 5.7 10.0 14.7 4502 1992 58.1 7.1 5.5 4.5 9.3 15.5 4702 1993 56.8 7.9 6.5 3.4 9.2 16.2 4339 1994 58.2 10.0 6.1 2.3 6.9 16.6 4860 1995 55.9 9.9 6.2 2.2 7.5 18.3 4715 1996 56.7 9.4 6.3 2.6 7.8 17.1 4777 2000 55.7 10.1 6.4 2.5 7.7 17.5 5070 Average 58.7 4.8 6.5 5.4 10.2 14.4 4232 Std Dev 1.8 2.9 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 476 Japan / Imports, % Canada Chile New Zealand USA Area of Fmr USSR Balance Japan 1983 50 0.7 7.2 32.1 3.4 6.8 3750 1985 53 2.7 4.1 30.5 4.0 5.7 3750 1990 49 5.4 2.7 32.7 3.5 7.2 8622 1991 53 5.0 3.2 30.1 3.0 6.1 9057 1992 57 3.5 3.2 27.4 2.9 5.8 8425 1993 60 4.4 2.6 22.3 3.1 7.3 9896 1994 60 3.3 2.7 20.1 3.8 10.5 10111 1995 58 5.3 2.8 17.3 4.1 12.5 11164 1996 60 4.3 2.7 19.0 3.7 10.2 10702 2000 64 4.2 2.6 15.9 3.6 10.0 11359 Average 52 3.7 3.2 29.1 3.5 8.8 7207 Std Dev 5 1.4 1.5 5.7 0.4 2.5 2726 UK / Imports, % Canada Finland Portugal Sweden Area of Fmr USSR Balance UK 1983 20.4 14.3 7.8 28.3 16.5 12.6 7592 1985 15.4 13.7 12.1 28.5 16.2 14.1 6583 1990 40.4 10.1 10.0 14.6 14.0 10.8 8404 1991 38.6 10.7 8.1 19.9 13.3 9.4 6371 1992 33.7 12.7 7.0 25.4 10.6 10.7 6569 1993 11.9 19.6 4.1 42.4 13.4 8.6 6140 1994 8.6 20.0 3.9 36.7 20.6 10.1 7274 1995 11.9 12.4 5.6 30.7 26.0 13.4 5026 1996 9.4 17.9 4.3 38.3 19.7 10.3 6331 2000 5.3 18.0 3.8 43.4 20.0 9.6 6720 Average 24.9 13.5 8.6 25.9 15.5 11.6 7387 Std Dev 11.2 3.0 2.8 8.0 3.9 1.7 1278 USA / Imports, % Canada Chile New Zealand Free Zones Free Zones Balance USA 1983 99.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 17340 1985 99.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 20564 1990 98.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 28643 1991 98.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 27696 1992 98.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 36021 1993 97.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 41284 1994 97.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 42559 1995 97.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.9 44931 1996 97.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 44212 2000 97.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 46926 Average 98.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 28071 Std Dev 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 10573 35 1983 15.1 14.9 2.0 28.3 13.6 26.1 4007 UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and projection of forest products trade flows Germany / Imports, % Austria Finland Poland Sweden Area of Fmr USSR Balance Germany 36 3 Table 3. Sawnwood C. Quantitity Trade by trading partners (exports) 1983-1993, in 1000 m 1983 4007 605 597 81 1133 545 1046 1985 3225 402 476 126 947 425 849 1990 4589 625 588 435 1170 582 1189 1991 4504 499 663 425 1291 593 1033 1992 5150 482 735 681 1491 579 1182 1993 5382 460 813 780 1556 709 1063 1994 6127 613 986 790 1618 769 1351 1995 5215 327 849 652 1068 1022 1297 1996 5742 475 914 768 1443 865 1277 2000 6094 482 988 837 1474 945 1368 Average 4418 508 671 378 1177 623 1060 Std Dev 848 90 143 266 240 147 156 Italy /Imports Total Austria Germany Sweden USA Area of Fmr USSR Balance 1983 3638 2179 82 342 264 348 423 1985 3501 2087 103 240 209 430 432 1990 4495 2743 138 241 250 435 688 1991 4502 2655 250 231 257 448 660 1992 4702 2733 333 259 211 436 730 1993 4339 2466 341 280 148 401 703 1994 4860 2829 485 295 111 336 805 1995 4715 2636 467 291 106 353 863 1996 4777 2711 451 299 125 373 819 2000 5070 2823 511 326 129 391 890 Average 4232 2483 210 273 222 428 616 Std Dev 476 284 148 33 62 59 141 Japan / Imports Total Canada Chile New Zealand USA Area of Fmr USSR Balance 1983 3750 1868 26 271 1203 129 253 1985 3750 1988 100 154 1144 152 212 1990 8622 4184 463 237 2818 302 619 1991 9057 4760 450 293 2726 273 556 1992 8425 4819 291 272 2310 245 489 1993 9896 5959 435 257 2210 311 725 1994 10111 6027 332 276 2033 383 1060 1995 11164 6466 587 318 1930 463 1400 1996 10702 6433 462 290 2034 395 1088 2000 11359 7230 477 299 1809 413 1131 Average 7207 3813 292 212 2003 252 636 Std Dev 2726 1730 172 75 643 100 320 UK / Imports UK Canada Finland Portugal Sweden Area of Fmr USSR Balance 1983 7592 1552 1089 594 2151 1252 954 1985 6583 1014 899 796 1878 1065 931 1990 8404 3391 852 841 1231 1180 909 1991 6371 2459 684 518 1265 845 599 1992 6569 2211 831 458 1669 698 702 1993 6140 728 1206 255 2603 821 528 1994 7274 626 1458 283 2669 1500 738 1995 5026 597 623 282 1543 1307 674 1996 6331 597 1131 272 2427 1250 653 2000 6720 354 1211 253 2915 1341 646 Average 7387 1914 991 647 1854 1126 855 Std Dev 1278 1034 227 261 444 227 191 USA / Imports Total Canada Chile New Zealand Balance 1983 17340 17279 5 5 51 1985 20564 20385 75 3 100 1990 28643 28231 113 8 292 1991 27696 27273 72 10 341 1992 36021 35403 116 39 464 1993 41284 40260 232 134 658 1994 42559 41329 266 190 773 1995 44931 43595 304 199 833 1996 44212 42973 277 181 782 2000 46926 45581 300 196 849 Average Std Dev 28071 10573 27572 10163 114 94 47 75 338 271 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle Germany / Imports Total Austria Finland Poland Sweden Area of Fmr USSR Balance 3 Table 4. Sawnwood C. Trade by trading partners (exports) 1983-1993, totals in 1000 m 1985 1.7 0.5 8.6 2.5 83.3 3.5 28884 1990 0.7 1.0 10.6 7.4 75.3 5.0 42593 1991 0.5 0.7 12.7 6.0 75.0 5.2 41190 1992 0.5 0.2 12.0 4.7 78.5 4.1 43173 1993 0.5 0.1 12.7 1.3 81.8 3.6 49095 1994 0.5 0.1 12.2 1.2 83.5 2.5 51370 1995 0.4 0.1 12.4 1.0 83.5 2.6 54332 1996 0.5 0.1 12.2 1.1 83.3 2.8 53147 2000 0.4 0.1 11.5 1.0 84.4 2.6 56408 Average 1.0 0.5 10.7 4.4 79.2 4.2 38157 Std Dev 0.5 0.3 2.0 2.3 3.3 1.5 10405 1983 6.9 9.6 13.4 9.0 22.2 38.9 6254 1985 12.0 9.1 10.9 8.9 17.5 41.7 6216 1990 6.8 11.3 15.5 11.2 20.0 35.2 4080 1991 7.4 10.9 16.9 11.9 16.0 36.9 3906 1992 8.7 10.2 16.3 12.1 17.7 35.1 4262 1993 7.1 9.1 15.1 11.8 18.9 38.0 6215 1994 4.0 9.6 16.9 11.9 20.4 37.3 8464 1995 11.3 8.8 13.5 10.6 16.4 39.2 6950 1996 7.3 9.1 15.3 11.4 18.8 38.1 7426 2000 7.3 9.0 15.1 11.4 19.0 38.2 7881 Average 7.5 10.4 14.4 10.2 20.1 37.4 5874 Std Dev 2.6 1.2 1.9 1.4 2.9 2.7 1285 Sweden / Exports, % Denmark Egypt Germany Netherlands UK Balance Sweden 1983 9.4 7.4 14.2 9.7 25.1 34.1 8259 1985 10.5 10.2 12.6 9.8 23.9 33.0 7668 1990 11.3 6.2 18.3 9.3 19.2 35.7 6236 1991 11.4 9.9 19.5 8.8 19.2 31.1 6596 1992 11.7 7.0 18.1 9.8 21.4 32.1 7950 1993 10.0 7.2 15.7 8.7 27.3 31.0 9640 1994 12.1 4.3 16.1 8.9 26.1 32.6 10060 1995 11.0 7.6 16.0 8.7 23.9 32.9 9828 1996 11.0 6.3 15.7 8.7 26.2 32.1 10138 2000 10.8 6.1 15.0 8.6 27.8 31.6 10760 Average 11.1 7.6 15.5 9.3 23.8 32.8 7856 Std Dev 0.9 1.5 2.2 0.4 2.5 1.3 1281 USA / Exports, % Australia Canada Italy Japan Spain Balance USA 1983 8.1 23.6 6.9 34.4 1.8 25.2 4130 1985 11.3 17.8 5.6 39.2 1.8 24.3 3577 1990 5.7 15.8 4.1 38.4 3.1 32.9 7084 1991 5.9 13.6 4.0 34.9 3.1 38.6 7356 1992 4.2 13.7 3.9 37.7 3.5 37.0 7175 1993 4.7 13.6 3.1 44.2 2.5 31.9 6482 1994 3.0 15.3 2.4 43.5 3.0 32.8 5719 1995 4.7 17.5 2.7 43.9 3.2 28.0 5162 1996 4.1 15.2 2.7 44.6 2.9 30.5 5962 2000 3.9 15.0 2.6 47.1 2.8 28.7 6327 Average 6.9 16.7 4.4 40.0 2.8 29.2 5720 Std Dev 2.7 2.9 1.3 3.9 0.6 5.1 1483 Area of Fmr USSR / Exports, % Egypt Germany Italy Netherlands UK Balance Area of Fmr USSR 1983 6.3 13.9 8.9 6.7 31.9 32.3 3923 1985 9.4 11.6 11.7 4.7 28.9 33.6 3678 1990 6.7 15.6 7.7 5.8 17.1 47.2 7841 1991 2.8 14.7 11.1 8.6 20.9 41.8 4035 1992 0.8 17.9 13.5 7.0 21.5 39.3 3240 1993 0.0 18.9 10.7 7.5 21.8 41.2 3763 1994 11.4 13.6 6.8 5.3 27.3 35.5 4943 1995 11.6 16.2 5.7 5.4 21.7 39.4 6240 1996 8.7 16.0 7.2 5.8 23.9 38.3 5131 2000 9.1 15.9 6.9 5.7 25.1 37.2 5446 Average 5.5 14.2 9.8 6.8 24.7 39.0 4691 Std Dev 3.8 2.4 2.2 1.3 4.2 4.7 1277 37 Finland / Exports, % Egypt France Germany Netherlands UK Balance Finland UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and projection of forest products trade flows Canada / Exports, % 1983 Australia 1.1 France 0.8 Japan 8.5 UK 4.5 USA 77.4 Balance 7.7 Canada 25591 3 Table 5. Sawnwood C. Quantity Trade by trading partners (Exports) 1983-1993, 1000 m Canada / Exports 1983 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 2000 Average Std Dev Total 25591 28884 42593 41190 43173 49095 51370 54332 53147 56408 38157 10405 Australia 283 486 307 226 222 256 260 209 244 241 324 93 France 207 131 445 270 86 41 42 37 40 40 184 119 Japan 2184 2480 4513 5213 5170 6228 6257 6763 6503 6495 4189 1639 UK 1150 717 3163 2470 2021 641 609 557 599 554 1601 953 USA 19806 24062 32054 30880 33906 40152 42916 45343 44251 47598 30335 8896 Balance 1962 1009 2110 2131 1768 1778 1284 1423 1509 1480 1523 432 Finland / Exports 1983 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 2000 Average Std Dev Total 6254 6216 4080 3906 4262 6215 8464 6950 7426 7881 5874 1285 Egypt 432 744 279 289 371 443 341 789 540 572 435 178 France 599 563 462 427 434 563 809 613 679 707 607 125 Germany 840 678 632 661 694 940 1430 941 1135 1194 844 220 Netherlands 563 553 456 464 515 735 1003 737 850 902 595 154 UK 1388 1087 816 626 753 1174 1726 1143 1393 1499 1188 334 Balance 2433 2592 1434 1439 1495 2359 3154 2727 2830 3009 2206 543 Sweden / Exports 1983 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 2000 Average Std Dev Sweden 8259 7668 6236 6596 7950 9640 10060 9828 10138 10760 7856 1281 Denmark 778 808 708 754 927 965 1219 1078 1116 1165 870 155 Egypt 614 781 389 653 555 698 431 742 638 658 591 117 Germany 1171 965 1139 1285 1439 1515 1616 1568 1595 1615 1213 246 Netherlands 800 749 579 581 779 841 894 856 885 923 729 106 UK 2077 1834 1195 1270 1698 2630 2621 2351 2653 2996 1883 448 Balance 2820 2531 2225 2053 2551 2991 3279 3232 3251 3403 2571 404 USA / Exports 1983 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 2000 Average Std Dev USA 4130 3577 7084 7356 7175 6482 5719 5162 5962 6327 5720 1483 Australia 336 405 405 434 299 303 172 244 244 247 374 111 Canada 974 638 1121 1000 985 882 876 902 909 947 921 143 Italy 284 199 287 293 283 199 138 138 161 163 239 58 Japan 1419 1403 2718 2564 2704 2866 2486 2268 2656 2981 2296 635 Spain 75 65 223 227 249 161 172 167 170 174 165 70 Balance 1042 868 2330 2840 2656 2070 1874 1444 1821 1814 1725 687 Area of Fmr USSR / Exports 1983 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 2000 Average Std Dev Area of Fmr USSR 3923 3678 7841 4035 3240 3763 4943 6240 5131 5446 4691 1277 Egypt 249 347 524 114 26 0 565 725 448 498 274 217 Germany 545 425 1220 593 579 709 672 1012 821 866 664 217 Italy 348 430 602 448 436 401 335 357 371 378 441 76 Netherlands 264 173 456 346 228 281 263 334 300 312 315 85 UK 1252 1065 1340 845 698 821 1351 1353 1226 1367 1130 221 Balance 1266 1237 3699 1687 1273 1550 1757 2460 1965 2025 1867 713 Figure 1. World coniferous sawnwood imports, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. Figure 2. World coniferous sawnwood exports, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. 40 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle Figure 3. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Germany, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. Figure 4. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Italy, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows Figure 5. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Japan, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. Figure 6. Coniferous sawnwood imports / UK, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. 41 42 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle Figure 7. Coniferous sawnwood imports / USA, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. Figure 8. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Canada, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows Figure 9. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Finland, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. Figure 10. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Sweden, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000. 43 44 Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle Figure 11. Coniferous sawnwood exports / USA, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000 Figure 12. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Area of former USSR, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000