Download UNSTAT TRADE DATA AS BASIS FOR ANALYSIS AND

UNSTAT TRADE DATA AS BASIS FOR ANALYSIS AND
PROJECTION OF FOREST PRODUCTS TRADE FLOWS
EFI Working Paper 17
Bruce Michie
Philip Wardle
2
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
EFI Working Paper 17
UNSTAT Trade Data as Basis for Analysis and Projection
of Forests Products Trade Flows
Authors
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
Publisher
European Forest Institute
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Institute.
ISBN 952-9844-59-X
ISSN 1237-5126
©European Forest Institute 1998
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
3
CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................... 4
FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................... 5
INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................ 7
AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY .................................................................................. 8
METHOD......................................................................................................................................... 8
ESTABLISHING A STANDARD INTERNATIONAL TRADE DATABASE............................. 9
STANDARDISING THE CLASSIFICATION..............................................................................10
STANDARDISING QUANTITY UNITS ................................................................................................................11
ESTIMATING MISSING TRADE FLOWS..............................................................................................................11
COMPARISON OF EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS REPORTS ..................................................................................12
VALIDATION OF THE ESTIMATED TRADE FLOW MATRIX...................................................................................13
CHANGING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL BOUNDARIES .......................................................................................14
REVIEW OF TRENDS AND RELATIONSHIPS TO ESTABLISH THE CONCEPTUAL
BASIS FOR PROJECTING FUTURE TRADE DEVELOPMENT.............................................14
SHARE OF TRADE AND SHARE OF TRADING PARTNERS .....................................................................................14
PROJECTING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE............................................................18
CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................................................20
REFERENCES ...............................................................................................................................21
APPENDIX I ...................................................................................................................................22
SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED INFORMAL PRODUCT CODES) ................................22
APPENDIX II..................................................................................................................................26
SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED FAO PRODUCT CODES AND PRODUCT NAMES).........26
APPENDIX III ................................................................................................................................29
SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED FAO PRODUCT NAMES AND MT/CUM CONVERSIONS)29
APPENDIX IV ................................................................................................................................31
WORLD UNIT PRICE FOR CONIFEROUS SAWNWOOD .......................................................................................31
APPENDIX V..................................................................................................................................33
A COMPLETE SET OF TABLES AND GRAPHS OF PROJECTIONS ............................................................................33
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Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
ABSTRACT
This study summarizes the statistical and analytical problems in utilising the UNSTAT
COMTRADE trade data and the steps to establishing a credible data set for analysis of forest
products trade flows. It explores the structure and dynamics of a limited set of 1983-95 coniferous
sawnwood trade flows to provide an indication of the possibilities of improving our understanding
of the past and of viewing possible future trade flows. Previously accessible international forest
products databases were limited to information on total exports or imports of a commodity. This
study demonstrates that the characterization of the broad structure of trade flows, and their
variability and trends are useful and necessary in estimating future development of trade flows. An
important conclusion is that it is possible and realistic to establish a comprehensive and credible
database of annual bilateral trade flows covering all main forest products and all countries and this
could be done for all years from 1961. With such a database one may examine the development of
trade between any two individual countries, groups of countries or regions, both for major forest
products individually and for the aggregate of all forest products. This type of analysis will provide
an invaluable, indeed an essential component of EFI work on structural change in forest product
markets.
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
5
FOREWORD
More than a quarter of all forest products produced each year is traded internationally. Currently,
the value traded is around $100 billion per year. Of this total, 45-50% is with European countries.
Analysis of the structure and dynamics of this major economic activity in the forest sector is an
essential part of the EFI research into structural changes in the markets for forest products.
The main work on the development of international statistical information has been carried out in
United Nations organisations, statistical information on the forest sector being a particular remit of
the Food and Agriculture Organisation – FAO in Rome and the joint FAO/ECE (Economic
Commission for Europe) division in Geneva. International trade statistics are collected by the UN
Statistical Division (UNSTAT, formerly the UN Statistics Office). Because of the laborious process
of exchanging manually recorded statistical information FAO and ECE collected forest product
trade statistics directly from the member countries (this effort mainly involved the collection of total
imports and exports from each country, although trade flows between a few large traders were also
collected). Since the early 1970s, UN organisations have entered their statistical data into computer
systems and UN and FAO yearbooks were generated from computer databases. By 1980 it was
normal to exchange data in computer readable form. Comprehensive databases were developed
which means that data are available on forest products in FAO (production, total imports and total
exports) and on international trade (detailed trade flows) in the UN covering all years since 1961.
For forest products trade (total annual imports and exports for each country) and trade flow data
(annual trade between two individual countries) FAO and ECE depended on data reported by
countries in questionnaires or in national trade yearbooks. Obtaining the latter usually involved a
delay of a further year. The UN received a copy of the national trade yearbook and entered this into
its database. In recent years it has received national trade yearbooks in computer readable form
greatly accelerating the entry into the UN database. In the mid 1980s, FAO made a first exercise in
extracting trade and trade flow data from the UN Statistical Office's Comtrade database. These data
were then still several years in arrears so they did not provide an alternative for quick data
collection, but they did allow the first comprehensive view of the structure and composition of past
trade flows. They also made estimating the trade of non reporting countries through the information
of trading partners a practicable proposition. This was possible but extremely laborious using
written tabulations and practicable only in the case of a few major flows. From the point of view of
analysis, the availability in computer readable form represented a leap forward in accessibility of
trade flow data.
The ability to analyse the detail of forest product trade flows has the potential to throw light on the
structure and dynamics of international trade. The establishment of a standardised data bank of
forest products trade flow data from the UNSTAT's Comtrade database provides the wealth of
information that allows this analysis to proceed. In order to carry out a credible analysis the problem
of imperfections of the available data (as will be described later in the document) have to be
overcome using transparent methods to ensure that the distortion of inaccuracy or missinterpretation is avoided while at the same time drawing the greatest amount of information from the
available data. The process of exploring this wealth of information was initiated through a
consultancy to FAO by Gabor Kornai in the mid 1980s which allowed Franco Pontecorvi to develop
the first comprehensive forest products trade flow tables from UNSO (now UNSTAT) computer
readable data (FAO 1987). This was taken further by Bruce Michie (FAO 1991; FAO 1995;
FAO/ECE 1995) and his work with the European Forest Institute in developing a manual for FAO
to extract forest products trade flow data from the UNSO trade database (Michie, EFI Nov, 1995).
This study summarises the analytical problems in utilising the UN trade data and the steps to
establishing a credible data set for analysis of forest products trade flows. It explores the structure
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Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
and dynamics of a limited set of trade flows to provide an indication of the exciting possibilities of
improving our understanding of the past and of projecting future trade flows.
The credit for the data goes to the collaboration between countries of the World and the United
Nations and FAO in establishing and maintaining arrangements for the regular collection of
international data, agreeing and applying the standard classifications and coding and establishing the
databases, to ensure that the data when collected are more or less compatible and readily accessible
to users.
We hope that this analytical study of those data may be seen as a natural outcome of the recent
technological revolution that has greatly increased the potential to utilise the wealth of information
that such databases represent for the benefit of better understanding the workings of the sector on
which they report. We recognise that this is but a small first step in the direction towards using these
data for the better understanding of forest products trade.
This project was funded by a Joensuu City Scholarship. We would like to thank Matti Palo and the
World Forests, Society and Environment project for supporting recent Trade Flow Database work.
October 1998
Bruce Michie
Philip Wardle
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
7
INTRODUCTION
Trade is a major activity in the economy of the forest and forest products sector. About one quarter
of the industrial forest products produced each year enter into international trade and this trade is
valued at some $100 billion per year. Understanding the composition and behaviour of this activity
is of vital importance to the decision-making, management and marketing of a substantial part of the
industry. The information is also crucial to those who facilitate trade and provide infrastructure, the
ports, the transport systems, the trading and financing organisations and the governmental
organisations that handle trade relations and standards.
The "trade flow" represents a summary of the volume and the value of the effort in production and
transport, of all shipments of goods of a given category produced in one country and delivered to a
second country in the course of one year. Information on trade flows helps to identify where the
priority of those concerned with national forest products trade should be concentrated. Knowledge
of international flows helps to indicate opportunities to develop markets and the supporting
infrastructure to facilitate this. Information about the change in trade flows is essential to
understanding the external factors influencing product trade and to assessing their impact. The
power of comprehensive analysis in this area opens up completely new possibilities of
understanding the existing information on trade in forest products and mobilising it for decision
making on developing strategies to face the future.
In the era of manual assembly and processing of data on trade in forest products it was possible to
list and publish trade flows for only a few of the most important products and only between main
trading partners (eg. FAO Yearbooks 1947-96, FAO/ECE Timber Bulletin for Europe 1947-96).
These provided information on trade flows for 10-20 trading partners with comparative tables for 2
years.
In the mid 1980s it became feasible to extract data on the trade flows from the computer readable
database on trade developed by the UN Statistics Office. Processing and storage of these data
remained a significant logistical problem, remembering that one was dealing with some 1 million
flows in covering one year's trade in forest products. In the first efforts to extract, summarise and
present these data, products were grouped into aggregates and the trade flows listed for all
identified trading partners for one year (FAO 1987). From the point of view of increasing the
estimation of trade flows towards comprehensive coverage the available import and export reports
were merged to estimate missing trade flows of non-reporting countries from the flows reported by
reporting countries (Kornai; in FAO 1987).
Previous analyses of the dynamics of forest products trade have generally examined the pattern over
time in the development of imports or exports of a product or of that product by a country or a
region and has sometimes extended that to examination of the shifts in the pattern of trade flows
between regions in order to understand the broad regional structure of world trade (FAO
commodity reviews - various years; European timber trends and prospects – ETTSV 1996). The
examination of the development of individual flows over time has been on an exceptional basis
either relating to the particular flow between two countries or the development of flows of one
product from one country to others.
Starting in 1991, trade flow data from the UN Statistical Division's Comtrade data set has been
analysed by FAO, Rome and published in the FAO Yearbook and the ECE/FAO Timber Bulletin
series, after comparing the trade flow figures against country reports. The procedure for extraction,
validation and preparation of a standard forest products trade matrix from the UN Comtrade
database is described by Michie (EFI, Nov, 1995). In 1995 the European Forest Institute made a
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Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
test of presenting trade data on the Internet covering the full set of products found in the direction of
trade tables of FAO's 1993 Yearbook of Forest Products (FAO 1995). This test covers 14 products
or product aggregates for years 1992 and 1993. It used the same data as that used in preparing the
tables published in the 1993 FAO Yearbook (FAO 1995) and 1992-3 ECE/FAO Timber Bulletin
(ECE/FAO 1995). In these tables only the largest 15 exporters and largest 25 importers appear,
while in the EFI Internet example all importers and exporters are included. The EFI example
consisted of between 9000 and 10000 individual tables.
AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
Work on trade flows mentioned above concentrated on the interpretation of existing data to establish
comparable and comprehensive data on past trade flows. The aim in this study is to summarize the
analytical problems in utilizing the UN trade data and to clarify the method of establishing a credible
standard trade flow data set for analysis of forest products trade flows. A limited set of trade flow
data is then used to demonstrate their suitability and feasibility as a basis for trade flow projections.
The objectives of the study were to:
1) present the analytical procedure to establish a standard trade flow database;
2) develop a conceptual framework for projecting trade flows into the future identifying
alternatives based on the trade flow database;
3) indicate relevance of this database to general studies of trade and the projection of future
trade; and
4) in view of the value for international exchange of information, presentation of the resulting
trade flow data on the Internet and in the form of an extractable database was tested.
METHOD
The development of an approach to projecting future trade flows involved the following steps:
1) The extraction of international trade flow data from the UN Comtrade database.
2) The establishment of a standard international trade database.
3) Review of the historical development of total trade and the trading partner composition
of trade.
4) Review of trends and relationships in trade and trade flows to establish a conceptual
basis for projecting future trade development.
5) Identify possibilities for projecting future development of trade flows and demonstration
of their application.
6) Presentation of results.
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
9
ESTABLISHING A STANDARD INTERNATIONAL TRADE
DATABASE
The source of the trade data used in this study is the Commodity Trade Statistics Unit of the United
Nations Statistical Division (UNSTAT). This data was efficiently provided by the Geneva office of
UNSTAT. The UNSTAT Comtrade database records data from national trade yearbooks on all
merchandise trade. Products are classified according to the standard international trade classification
-SITC. This classifies, codes and defines all products. Since the inception of this classification, its
coding and definitions have been revised on a number of occasions (SITC Rev1 UN 1961, SITC
Rev2 UN 1975 and SITC Rev3 UN 1985). Revision 3 was made fully consistent with the Customs
Co-operation Council (CCC) trade classification – the harmonised system – developed and adopted
in the late 1980s (see FAO 1982). The CCC was recently renamed as the World Customs
Organisation.
In the development of a standard forest products trade flow database the product classification of
FAO was adopted. This is somewhat simpler in its treatment of forest products than the above trade
classifications and is oriented to needs of the forestry sector. (FAO yearbook of forest products
1995, FAO Working Group on Forestry statistics 1995, Classification and definition of forest
products FAO 1982).
Definitions
• Sawnwood - sawnwood including sleepers, unplaned, planed, grooved, tongued, etc., sawn
lengthwise or produced by a profile-chipping process ( eg. Planks, beams, joists, boards, rafters,
scantlings, laths, boxboards, "lumber", etc.) and planed wood that may also be finger jointed,
tongued or grooved, chamfered, rabbeted, v-jointed, beaded, etc. Wood flooring is excluded.
With few exceptions sawnwood exceeds 5 mm in thickness.
• Sawnwood (C) - sawnwood of coniferous species
• Sawnwood (NC) -sawnwood of non-coniferous species (broadleaved species).
• Industrial Roundwood - wood-in-the-rough (WIR) - this aggregate includes all industrial
wood-in-the-rough (sawlogs and veneer logs, pulpwood and other industrial roundwood both of
coniferous and non-coniferous species. Sawlogs, veneer logs and logs for sleepers whether or not
roughly squared, to be sawn (or chipped) lengthwise for the manufacture of sawnwood or
railway sleepers. Shingle bolts and stave bolts are included. Logs for the production of veneer,
mainly by peeling and slicing. Match billets are included as are special growths (burls, roots,
etc.) used for veneers. Wood-in-the-rough other than logs - for pulp, particle board or fibre
board. Pulpwood may be barked or unbarked and may be in the form of roundwood or
splitwood, Other industrial roundwood used for tanning, distillation, match blocks, gazogenes,
poles, piling, posts, pitprops, etc.
Source: FAO 1995. Yearbook of forest products
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Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
STANDARDISING THE CLASSIFICATION
For this study historical data series (1983-1993) were constructed from the UNSTAT database for
coniferous sawnwood, non-coniferous sawnwood and industrial roundwood - wood in the rough
(WIR). This data series was extended to include data up to 1995 and a further 27 products have
now been completed in addition to the original 3. Primarily coniferous sawnwood data will be used
here due to the large number of graphs necessary to display the results of each product. Industrial
roundwood (WIR) differs from the aggregate industrial roundwood (FAO product classification) in
that chips, particles and wood residues are not included. The data extraction and standardisation
involved selecting the appropriate SITC codes for the products desired, checking units and
converting quantities recorded by weight (metric tons) to volume (cubic meters).
Most products under FAO’s product classification system are aggregates of several SITC products.
Data over the time period (1983-1995) consists of data from all three SITC revisions. Product
definitions and the product content of the subdivisions have also changed from revision to revision.
Appendixes 1 and 2 give the SITC codes and associated FAO products.
Sometimes the same SITC product code refers to different products in different SITC revisions and
it is impossible to follow important individual products through time due to changes in product
definitions. Industrial roundwood (WIR) is the most refined product that can be followed through
the three SITC revisions since in SITC Revision 3 pulpwood (which is a separate product in Rev. 1
and Rev 2) was first split into coniferous and non- coniferous and then aggregated with sawlogs and
veneer logs C (coniferous) or sawlogs and veneer logs NC (non-coniferous), respectively to make
industrial roundwood (WIR) C and industrial roundwood (WIR) NC (which can then be split into
tropical and other on the basis of country of origin).
The case of sawnwood products will illustrate the difficulties caused by different SITC revisions.
The FAO product sawnwood C (coniferous) is made up of codes 2432 (sawnwood C, SITC
Revision 1), 2482 (sawnwood C, SITC Revision 2), 2482 (sawnwood C, SITC Revision 3) and
2483, (parquet C, SITC Revision 3). In Revision 3 parquet flooring pieces are separated out from
other sawnwood while this was not done for the previous revisions. The FAO product sawnwood
NC (non-coniferous) is made up of SITC codes 2431, (sleepers, SITC Revision 1), 2433
(sawnwood NC, SITC Revision 1), 2481 (sleepers, SITC Revision 2), 2483 (sawnwood NC, SITC
Revision 2), 2481 (sleepers, SITC Revision 3), 2484 (sawnwood NC, SITC Revision 3) and 2485
(parquet NC, SITC Revision 3). Notice that code 2483 refers to non-coniferous sawnwood under
SITC Revision 2 and coniferous parquet flooring pieces under SITC Revision 3.
Table 1 gives the number of countries reporting trade flow data by each SITC Revision for years
1983-1995 and the total number of countries for which trade is reported and estimated as a result of
standardisation:
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
11
Table 1. Number of countries reporting according to SITC Revision
SITC Revision
Year
Rev.1
Rev. 2
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
22
21
18
6
5
4
1
2
2
1
2
1
0
0
92
86
90
100
98
64
55
41
28
16
9
2
1
1
Rev. 3
Total
Total
(after standardization)
35
49
61
69
75
89
91
82
66
114
107
108
106
103
103
105
104
99
92
100
94
83
68
196
197
196
196
196
202
200
197
197
216
219
218
219
219
STANDARDISING QUANTITY UNITS
Once the proper SITC codes were selected from each Revision it was then necessary to convert the
units from metric tons (the most common unit found in the Comtrade data) to cubic meters (solid
wood products only). Where data are reported in weight units a standard conversion factor is
applied to convert to volume (Appendix 3).
The next step is the cleaning of data to replace missing quantity data and to ensure that quantity and
value data are consistent. Missing quantity data occurs when a value for a trade flow exists but no
corresponding quantity data exists. Quantity data is considered to be inconsistent when the unit
price of a trade flow is more than 5 times the appropriate average unit price or less than 1/5 of the
average unit price. Substituting for missing or inconsistent data is done by first obtaining a world
average unit price for the product and trade flow in question. Appropriate world average unit prices
are calculated for imports and exports (Appendix 4, coniferous sawnwood only). Once the average
unit price has been determined the missing quantity data is substituted by using an estimate
calculated from the value of the trade flow and the average unit price. For veneer the procedure was
modified to use average unit price of large exporters rather than world average unit price. These
steps complete the standardisation of existing records.
ESTIMATING MISSING TRADE FLOWS
When an entire trade flow (both quantity and value) is missing then trading partner information is
substituted for the missing reporting country information. This type of substitution occurs at the
FAO product level. This is because a non-coniferous sawnwood trade flow might be reported by a
reporting country under SITC 2 definitions (product code 2483) while the trading partner might
report under SITC 3 definitions (product code 2484). The result would be double counting of the
trade flow if trading partner substitution is done at the SITC product level. Another possibility is to
use trading partner substitution only for countries that do not report any data at all.
It should be noted that this method of substitution introduces a certain bias in that the trading partner
data is entered unchanged as the estimate of the missing trade flow. This means that the value of
12
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
missing imports are underestimated by the use of the exporters (fob) value while the missing
exports are over valued by the use of importers (cif) value.
This step completes the estimation of the standard matrix of trade flows. The degree to which the
final result has depended on the various types of estimate is indicated in table 2 below. The number
of countries and territories for which estimates of import and export data can be identified is
increased from 100 or less to 200 or more (see table 1). For Products measured in cubic metres
only about 2 % of estimated total volume was originally reported in cubic meters; 70 - 84 % was
converted from metric tons; 11 % was estimated from value by unit price substitution and 6 - 16 %
was estimated from trading partner information. For products measured in metric tons around 90%
was reported in tons. Unit price substitution accounted for 2-5% and trading partners for 5-7%.
Table 2.% of estimates of world trade resulting from various standardisation steps.
Products measured in cubic meters:
Imports
Exports
Volume originally in cubic meters
Volume converted from metric tons
Volume estimated by Unit Price Calculation
Estimated from Trading Partners
Other corrections
3.50
77.20
11.40
6.30
1.50
1.6
70.5
11.4
16.0
.5
Products measured in metric tons:
Volume originally in cubic meters
Volume estimated by Unit Price Calculation
Estimated from Trading Partners
Other corrections
Imports
87.50
4.80
7.50
.20
Exports
92.3
2.2
5.3
.2
COMPARISON OF EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS REPORTS
When merging information from reporting countries and trading partners it is possible to compare
the two figures collected from opposite ends of the same trade flow. In most cases the two figures
for volume or value are very close to one another but they are almost never identical. This is
because of the time lag between collection of paperwork in the exporting country, shipment to a port
for export, storage at the port until the proper ship arrives, the time lost during international
transport, storage at the receiving port until picked up by a local importer and the collection of
paperwork by the importing country. Some shipments exported in one year would be imported the
following year. If data is collected on a monthly basis then the importation of a particular shipment
would almost always be reported in a different month from the exportation of the same shipment.
Shipments recorded by an exporter as destined for a particular country may eventually, in some
cases, be delivered to a different country.
It is sometimes suggested that the two different volumes reported by the countries at opposite ends
of the same trade flow should be averaged to give one result (or perhaps the larger of the two
should be chosen). Either of these suggestions are suitable if the two volumes are very close to one
another. However, often the two volumes reported for the same trade flow are substantially different
(and sometimes one is negligible while the other is substantial). When there are substantial
discrepancies between the two reported volumes there is no alternative to reporting both of them
since one can never be sure which is the more accurate of the two. Comparison of the reports on the
opposite ends of the same trade flow may give clues to the condition of the trading market. When,
for instance, imports by a country (or generally) greatly exceed exports to that country a slowdown
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
13
of orders by be inferred. When exports from a country greatly exceed imports reported from that
country then an increase in orders may be inferred. Similar changes in unit values would indicate
increasing or decreasing prices. Having information from reporting countries and trading partners
doubles the amount of information about a given trade flow. This can only help analysts studying
trade.
Gabor Kornai (FAO 1987) carried out a merger to create a unique trade flow between importer and
exporter whereby the largest trade flow volume of the two reported by importer and exporter was
always adopted. This was done to ensure that all missing flows were estimated by the trading
partner report. It also meant that the larger of the two reports was adopted where both partners
reported. This may lead to a bias towards overestimation. It also eliminated the possibility of
comparing the reports of the two trading partners on opposite ends of the same trade flow as the
original reporting data for one of the trading partners was completely lost in the standardised matrix
(and it is impossible to know which was lost and which kept).
The aggregate of reported value (unit and total) of imports is higher than the aggregate value of
exports. Usually, this is true of the importers report of a trade flow compared with the exporters
report of the same trade flow. This would of course be consistent with the difference between the
importers report of a trade flow–including cost of insurance and freight (cif), compared with the
exporters report of the same trade flow which includes only free on board (fob) costs.
Inconsistencies in the value of apparently the same trade flow may of course arise for the same
reasons listed for volume. The precise equality between the value of the estimate of a missing trade
flow and the record of the trading partner, mentioned earlier, is of course biased, but correcting it
would be problematical.
VALIDATION OF THE ESTIMATED TRADE FLOW MATRIX
The UNSO database consists of copies of country trade yearbooks concerned with all products with
no special attention to forest products. FAO and ECE over the years have found it necessary to
check national trade data with forest products expert information. This was done to ensure correct
classification and particularly to ensure correct reporting of quantity data in standard forestry units
as distinct from gross weight units. In developing the trade flow matrices (FAO 1995 and
FAO/ECE 1995) the estimates obtained by the above procedures were further checked against
national records to ensure the correct classification and magnitude of trade flows. Detail of trade
flows was then revised so that the volume and value in the trade flow matrix was consistent with the
independently derived estimates of total volume and value of trade that was previously determined.
This process of revision is not necessary in the sequence used to arrive at the standard matrix of
trade flows used in this study since trade flow details form the basis for calculating total imports and
total exports rather than starting with total trade estimates (as is done by FAO) so that arbitrary
adjustments are necessary to individual trade flows to make them add up to total trade estimates.
Comparisons of total world trade figures shows quite close correspondence between value from UN
and FAO which suggests one may have reasonable confidence in the broad magnitude and
confidence that the trade data are coming from the same general population. The UN based volume
has been derived using generalised conversion factors from weight units with no detailed external
checking, while the FAO volume has the added benefit of having been derived from, or checked
against national information on volume and one finds somewhat larger differences as a result.
(Table 5, Appendix V).
14
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
CHANGING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL BOUNDARIES
Countries have joined together and split apart over the 1983-1995 time period covered by the data.
This forces one to aggregate data in one part of the time series so that it can be compared with data
in other parts of the time series. This means that the Area of the Former Soviet Union (a country
aggregate for data starting in 1993) is necessary to compare current data with historical data for ExUSSR (data prior to 1993). Since 1993 data is reported for 8 additional countries in Asia (Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan) and 6
in Europe (Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova Republic and Ukraine). While Germany
refers to the full country since 1991 and the aggregate of Germany NL (new states) and Germany
FR (former Federal Republic of Germany) prior to unification. Ex-Czechoslovakia is used for data
prior to 1993 while Czech Republic and Slovakia are used for data starting in 1993. Ex-Yugoslavia
is used for data prior to 1993 while Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia and Yugoslavia (rump) are used for data starting in 1993. ExEthiopia, Ethiopia (rump) and Eritrea are necessary to follow Ethiopia data. Yemen, Yemen
Democratic Republic, and Yemen Arab Republic are necessary to follow Yemen data through time.
REVIEW OF TRENDS AND RELATIONSHIPS TO ESTABLISH THE
CONCEPTUAL BASIS FOR PROJECTING FUTURE TRADE
DEVELOPMENT
A systematic review of the data on trade and trade flows over this period reveals certain
characteristics which are helpful in the consideration of the information in the database as a
foundation for estimating future development of trade and trade flows.
SHARE OF TRADE AND SHARE OF TRADING PARTNERS
We first review how particular countries participation in coniferous sawnwood trade varies over
time. Table 1 in Appendix V and Figures 1 and 2 below show how participation in total trade in
coniferous sawnwood of the five largest importers and the five largest exporters, varied over the 83
to 95 period. The five largest importers account on average for 72% of the total imports, while the
five largest exporters account for 80% of total exports. In both cases these five countries are the five
largest importers/exporters in every year during the period. The ranking among the five does vary
over the period. Among importers Japan takes over from UK as second largest and Germany and
Italy exchange places from time to time as 4th and 5th largest. Among exporters Sweden starts and
finishes the period as 2nd largest, while USA moves from 4th to replace Finland in 3rd. The data
suggests changes in the share of total trade, in several cases, over the period. Among importers the
USA, with fluctuations, moves from 30% to around 45%, Japan moves from 6% to 11% and UK
from 13% to 8%. The share of the rest of the world declines by 8%. Looking at exporters Canada
increases from 41 to 54%, USA increases from 6 to 8% while the other majors decline and the rest
of the worlds share of exports falls slightly.
Thus looking at the major traders share we see fluctuations and shifts over time. The standard
deviations about the mean (Appendix V, Table 1) indicate that, making the assumption that the
share of any country is equal to its average share, for the five major traders would lead to estimates
of share which deviate from actual by less than 15-20% in nine years out of ten. [This limit will be
referred to as the deviation below].
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
15
Reviewing individual trade flows among major importers, there are some examples of great stability
– USA imported 99% from Canada with a deviation of less than 1%. Italy imported 59% from
Austria with deviation less than 4%. For most countries the share of the larger partners (share more
than 10%) tends to be moderately variable with deviation around 10%, while deviation of partners
with small shares may be very large. An exception is the UK where shares of the major partners
have deviations in the range 20 to 30%. (Appendix V)
Turning to the flows from the major exporters, for most countries the share going to the larger
partners is the more stable with deviations in the range 10 to 15 %. This stability may be primarily
due to the fact that the large exporters usually depend on one or two large importers while large
importers usually depend on one or two main exporters, in both cases accounting for more than
50% of their total. (Appendix V)
If one were able to predict the trend in the change of a countries share of trade then one would
expect to increase the precision of the estimate of share. Estimation of a linear trend in change of
share in the case of USA and German imports (Figures 3 and 4) would provide no improvement in
precision over an estimation of constant share.
While it is not possible to test whether utilising the trend in the change of share over the historic
period provides an accurate prediction of the trend for the future period it would be possible to test
whether the trend for the first part of the historic period is a valid estimate of the trend in the second
part of the period, thus providing an indication as to whether projecting the past trend in change of
share will provide a better estimate than projecting constant shares.
A further possibility would be to examine the past distribution of change in share from year to year
and to generate a projection that reflects the past variability in the change from year to year.
This review of the behaviour of shares of total trade of major traders and the share of trading
partners indicates that the range of variation is least for the larger participants. Analysis indicates
that for exporters and importers with largest shares, assumption of a constant share approximating
the average share for the period will lead to estimates within 20% in nine cases out of 10. However,
the number of large traders are limited and alternative trading partners for these large traders are
limited. The trading partner shares for dominant partners as for example in the case of trade in
coniferous sawnwood between Canada and US or Austria and Italy or North America and Japan
can be easily predicted on percentage basis.
Summing up on the possibilities of projecting future trading partner share in the total trade of a
country from the trade flow data, there are three possibilities:
• Projecting on the basis of constant share, either average for a past period or most recent.
This has the merit on the evidence of this research that it is robust and it is manifestly
simple.
16
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
Figure 1. Comparison of the world imports (a) and exports (b) of coniferous sawnwood 19831995, in percent.
Figure 2. Comparison of the world imports (a) and exports (b) of coniferous sawnwood 19831995, in mill. m3.
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
17
Figure 3. German coniferous sawnwood imports from major trading partners 1983-1995 (% and
millions of cubic meters).
Figure 4. USA coniferous sawnwood imports from major trading partners in 1983-1995 (% and
millions of cubic meters).
18
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
• Projecting on the basis of trend in past share – there may be cases where this improves
precision of the estimate
• Projecting on the basis of the random distribution of changes in past periods.
However, this study is not intended to provide final answers but to consider possibilities. Ideally,
trade would be driven by price or GDP. Our intention here is to show that trade flows are not
random but rather that they follow reasonable (and potentially predictable) trends.
PROJECTING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE
At first glance it would seem that for projecting trade the logical starting point would be production
and consumption at the individual country level. The need for goods and services that are not
available locally (or the ability to produce goods and services in excess of local needs) would
provide the incentive for trade. The full set of information that will define the problem is
consumption and production for each country as well as a matrix of trade flows between countries.
Excess production (or imports) would result in a short term increase in stocks but our discussion
here will not explicitly deal with stocks.
Pajuoja and Brooks (1997) reviewed the existing long term forecasts of world consumption and
production of roundwood and forest products. Their conclusion is that many of the economic
relationships are not amenable to additional modelling work due to our poor understanding of the
behavioural responses involved. The data needed to parameterize many of the relationships simply
does not exist. Zhang D. and J. Buongiorno (forthcoming) studied the demand, supply and trade of
forest products in Asia-Pacific region. While their study is extremely useful it would have been
much more informative and reliable if trade flows were used to describe the trends so that readers
could follow trends such as internal trade within Asia and Pacific, imports to Asia and pacific from
other regions and exports from Asia and Pacific to other regions.
Endogenous variables affecting levels of trade flows would be GDP levels in the importing
countries, a measure of manufacturing productivity (for those products which require
manufacturing), the inventory levels of standing trees available as raw material and finally the
currency exchange rate between the trading partners (and possibly the exchange rate between the
importer and alternative exporters that act as competitors). Further complications would involve the
possibility of importing a raw material (e.g. logs) and exporting a manufactured product (e.g.
sawnwood). In this case exchange rates between the supplier of logs and the manufacturer of
sawnwood would be important as would the exchange rate between the manufacturer of sawnwood
and the importer of the sawnwood. When exchange rates have been constant for a long period, local
product price may be used as an edogenous variable that is independent of exchange rates (which
normally would be exogenous).
A change in an exporting country's exchange rate results in a change in the cost (in local currency
terms) of supplying forest products to the international market relative to the prevailing international
price (usually measured in US dollars) while the cost by an importing country of buying forest
products from the international market (at the same prevailing international price) changes with the
importing countries exchange rate. At a fixed international price the amount of products supplied to
the international market by an exporter would ordinarily be expected to go up and down with that
country's exchange rate and an importer's demand for forest products from the international market
would be expected to go up and down with that county's exchange rates. The international price
would go up or down in response to the relationship between the aggregate amount demanded by
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
19
importers and the aggregate supply offered by exporters at the current prevailing international price.
However, large exporters might continue to export at constant levels (and fixed international prices)
despite strong currencies (in order to maintain market share) or they may initiate competitive
devaluations. Long term supply agreements or other special arrangements between large traders
create further difficulties when trying to model trade.
Due to the nature of exchange rates when the currency of a large exporter (or large importer)
becomes strong the currency of other large exporters (or large importers) become weak so that the
total amount of forest products exported and imported remains more or less the same. Therefore the
international price of forest products remains relatively constant in spite of rather violently
fluctuating currency exchange rates.
In this study we chose to simplify the problem in order to achieve results that will provide a frame
of reference from which more detailed studies can later be built. Looking first at total world imports
and exports allows (or forces) the analyst to take into account the fact that total world imports and
total world exports must be in approximate balance. Table 5 Appendix V shows that world import
and export volumes estimated from this database are not consistently related over the period. This
indicates that the analyst will have to give particular attention to data discrepancies in utilising the
data. Next, the historical patterns of trade by individual countries gives valuable information about
future trends. If one first projects total world imports and exports it is relatively simple to allocate
these totals to regions and individual countries on the basis of their recent historical contribution to
total world imports and exports. Once this was accomplished, the origins of imports (and the
destinations of exports) can be determined by looking at the historical pattern of trade flows
between countries. This yields two sets of information (since importers and exporters view trade
from opposite ends of the same trade flows) which could be studied for incompatibilities.
Exogenous information such as expected policy changes by exporting countries or limits to future
supply resulting from deforestation might cause large discrepancies between the desires of a set of
importers to import from a particular exporter and that exporter's ability to export at the levels
desired. To account for changes in percentage makeup of the various trading partners of major
traders the trend from recent years is, here, assumed to continue into the future.
As a demonstration of this method sample projections have been made of imports and exports for
the world's 13 largest importers and 13 largest exporters of coniferous sawnwood. The projection
scheme is very simple. Figure 4 of regression of world coniferous sawnwood trade indicates growth
in the range 3-4% over the period 1983-1996. For simplicity of the demonstration, a world wide
growth rate of 1.5% was chosen for coniferous sawnwood. Then the levels of imports and exports
for each country or region was assigned proportionally based on the percentage makeup of the data
over the period 1993-1995. The change in percentage makeup of trading partners between periods
1990-1992 and 1993-1995 was assumed to continue into the future. Trade flows for countries that
were not included in the set of 13 largest importers and exporters were aggregated together and
give the balance of world trade. Adding up the imports and exports for the 13 largest plus the
balance gives total world imports and exports.
Graphs of imports to Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and USA of coniferous sawnwood from their 5
largest trading partners and exports from Canada, Finland, Sweden, USA and the Area of the
Former USSR to their 5 largest trading partners are included here. These results are shown in
Appendix V.
20
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
CONCLUSIONS
Forest products trade flow data and techniques to analyse trade flow data are available which make
practical the construction of time series of trade flows and to project these trade flows into the
future. In order to carry out this study it was necessary to obtain trade flow data, analyze the data for
a relatively long time series and then to construct a method for making projections.
The size of the raw trade flow database is such that it can not be inspected directly. In the past when
we encountered problems (by attempting to do a study such as the one discussed in this paper) they
could only be solved in the next round of analyses. Since this paper was undertaken we have been
able to study problems in the data after it was processed and to make corrections without the need
to reprocess the data. We have also added additional steps to the set of standard procedures used for
analyzing the raw trade flow data. We hope that this extremely basic study will be followed by other
studies that will better demonstrate the richness of the trade flow database that is now available.
In general we conclude that the UNSTAT COMTRADE database provides a data source that
permits the construction of a credible and comprehensive database of forest product trade flows.
This gives access to estimates of the magnitude in value and volume of annual bilateral trade flows
between individual country pairs. It provides two estimates of this flow when both counties report.
The data set contains estimates of all bilateral trade flows recorded by one or both of the trading
partners; for all countries, products and years identified in the data set.
Analysis of the bilateral trade flows over time, individually or in aggregate, permits estimation of
trends and variability in the pattern of trade flows and total trade in a product or product aggregate.
This study was limited to examination of trade flows for one product–sawnwood. The study
demonstrates that the characterisation of the broad structure of trade flows, and their variability and
trends will be useful and necessary in estimating future development of trade flows. The
examination of the trade flow structure which becomes possible with the availability of this database
will also have value in understanding behaviour of total trade. Previously accessible international
forest products databases were limited to information on total exports or imports of a commodity.
The availability of the trade flow data permits a much fuller examination of the evolution of the
structure of trade between countries and regions.
The really important news from this study is that it is possible and realistic to establish a
comprehensive and credible database of annual bilateral trade flows covering all main forest
products and all countries and this could be done for all years from 1961. With such a database one
may examine the development of trade between any countries, groups of countries or regions, both
for major forest products individually and for the aggregate of all forest products. This type of
analysis will provide an invaluable, indeed an essential component of EFI work on structural change
in forest product markets.
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
21
REFERENCES
Zhang, D. and Buongiorno. J. (forthcoming) Demand, Supply and Trade of Forest Products in Asia-Pacific. In
Palo, M. and Uusivuori, J. (eds.) World Forests, Society and Environment. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
FAO 1982. Classification and definitions of forest products. Rome, Italy.
FAO 1987. Forest products : the direction of trade 1976, 1981, 1982. Rome, Italy.
FAO 1991. Forest products: the direction of trade 1985-1989. Rome, Italy.
FAO 1995. Yearbook of forest products 1993. Rome, Italy.
FAO, various years. Commodity Review. Rome, Italy.
FAO/ECE 1993 and 1995. Forest products trade flow data. New York, USA and Geneva, Switzerland.
Michie, B. Nov 1995. Manual of procedure – Analysis of international trade data on forest products. European
Forest Institute. Joensuu, Finland.
Pajuoja, H and Brooks, D. 1997. Long term forecasts of world consumption and production of roundwood and
forest products. In. Saastamoinen, O. and Tikka, S. Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the
Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Mekrijärvi, Finland, March 1996.
UN 1961. Standard international trade classification – SITC revision. New York, USA.
UN 1975. Standard international trade classification–SITC rev.2. New York, USA.
UN 1985. Standard international trade classification–SITC rev.3. New York, USA.
22
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
APPENDIX I
SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED INFORMAL PRODUCT CODES)
SITC
Product Code
2411
24501
24501
SITC
Informal Revision
Product Code
1
2
3
1010
1021
1031
Informal
Product Name
Fuelwood + Waste
Fuelwood
Fuelwood
2412
24502
24502
1
2
3
1012
1022
1032
Charcoal
Charcoal
Charcoal
2422
2471
2474
1
2
3
1110
1120
1131
Sawlogs + Veneer C
Sawlogs + Veneer C
IND-RWD-WIR (C)
2423
2472
2475
1
2
3
1210
1220
1231
Sawlogs + Veneer NC
Sawlogs + Veneer NC
IND-RWD-WIR (NC)
2421
24601
1
2
1311
1321
Pulpwood Round and Split
Pulpwood Round and Split
24602
2461
2
3
1322
1332
Chips and Parts
Chips and Parts
24603
2462
2
3
1323
1333
Wood Residues/Sawdust
Wood Residues/Sawdust
2424
2429
2473
2479
1
1
3
2
1411
1410
1432
1423
Pitprops
O I Rwd Poles/Pilings
Oth I Rndwd (Treated)
Pitprops/Poles/Pilings
2431
2481
2481
1
2
3
2111
2121
2131
Sleepers
Sleepers
Sleepers
2432
2482
2482
2483
1
2
3
3
2211
2221
2231
2232
Sawnwood C
Sawnwood C
Sawnwood C
Parquet C
2433
2483
2484
2485
1
2
3
3
2311
2321
2331
2332
Sawnwood NC
Sawnwood NC
Sawnwood NC
Parquet NC
6311
6341
6341
1
2
3
3111
3121
3131
Veneer
Veneer
Veneer
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
SITC
Product Code
6312
6342
6343
63441
6344
SITC
Informal Revision
Product Code
1
2
3
2
3
3210
3220
3230
3221
3231
Informal
Product Name
Plywood
Plywood
Plywood
Blockboard/Laminboard
Blockboard/Laminboard
63142
63432
63422
63423
1
2
3
3
3311
3321
3331
3332
Particle Board
Particle Board
Particle Board
Particle Board Ottw
6416
64161
63451
63452
64162
63453
63459
1
2
3
3
2
3
3
3410
3421
3431
3432
3522
3533
3534
Fibreboard 1
Fibreboard Comp 1
Fibreboard Comp 1
Fibreboard Comp 2
Fibreboard non Comp 1
Fibreboard non Comp 2
Fibreboard 2
2512
2512
2512
1
2
3
4111
4121
4131
Mechanical Wood Pulp
Mechanical Wood Pulp
Mechanical Wood Pulp
2519
25191
25191
1
2
3
4211
4221
4231
Semi-Chemical
Semi-Chemical
Semi-Chemical
25171
25171
2514
1
2
3
4311
4321
4331
Unbleached Sulphate
Unbleached Sulphate
Unbleached Sulphate
25172
25172
2515
1
2
3
4411
4421
4431
Bleached Sulphate
Bleached Sulphate
Bleached Sulphate
25181
25181
25161
1
2
3
4511
4521
4531
Unbleached Sulphite
Unbleached Sulphite
Unbleached Sulphite
25182
25182
25162
1
2
3
4611
4621
4631
Bleached Sulphite
Bleached Sulphite
Bleached Sulphite
2516
2516
2513
1
2
3
4711
4721
4731
Dissolving
Dissolving
Dissolving
2515
25192
25192
1
2
3
4811
4821
4831
Other Fibre Pulp
Other Fibre Pulp
Other Fibre Pulp
2511
2511
2511
1
2
3
4911
4921
4931
Recovered Paper
Recovered Paper
Recovered Paper
23
24
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
SITC
Product Code
6411
6411
6411
SITC
Informal Revision
Product Code
1
2
3
5111
5121
5131
Informal
Product Name
Newsprint
Newsprint
Newsprint
6412
6412
6412
6413
1
2
3
3
5211
5221
5231
5232
Printing + Writing P 1
Printing + Writing P 1
Printing + Writing P 1
Printing + Writing P 2
6413
6413
6414
1
2
3
5311
5321
5331
Other Pap + P (Kraft)
Other Pap + P (Kraft)
Other Pap + P (Kraft)
6415
1
5312
Other Pap + Paperbd A
6417
1
5313
Handmade Pap
6418
6417
2
3
5324
5334
Other Pap + P (Coated)
Other Pap + P (Coated)
6417
6416
2
3
5325
5335
Other Pap + (Corrug)
Other Pap + (Corrug)
6419
1
5316
Other Pap + Paperbd B
6415
3
5337
Other Pap + (Uncoated)
6415
2
5328
Other Pap + Paperbd C
24401
24401
24403
24404
1
2
3
3
6111
6121
6132
6133
Cork Unworked or Waste
Cork Unworked or Waste
Ck Raw or Simply Workd
Cork Waste or Ground
24402
24402
24402
1
2
3
6211
6221
6231
Cork in Blocks/Sheets
Cork in Blocks/Sheets
Cork in Blocks/Sheets
63301
63301
6331
1
2
3
6511
6521
6531
Articles of Nat Cork
Articles of Nat Cork
Articles of Nat Cork
63302
63302
6332
1
2
3
6611
6621
6631
Agglom Cork and Arts
Agglom Cork and Arts
Agglom Cork and Arts
63141
63431
63421
1
2
3
7011
7021
7032
Improved Wood
Improved Wood
Densified Wood
6321
6351
6351
1
2
3
7211
7221
7231
Boxes Drums/Parts of
Boxes Drums/Parts of
Boxes Drums/Parts of
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
SITC
Product Code
6322
6352
6352
SITC
Informal Revision
Product Code
1
2
3
7311
7321
7331
Informal
Product Name
Cooperage Products
Cooperage Products
Cooperage Products
6324
6353
6353
1
2
3
7411
7421
7431
Builders Joinery
Builders Joinery
Builders Joinery
6327
6354
6354
1
2
3
7511
7521
7531
Domestic or Decorative
Domestic or Decorative
Domestic or Decorative
6328
6359
6359
1
2
3
7611
7924
7631
Wood Manufactures NES
Articles of Wood NES
Wood Manufactures NES
63442
63443
2
2
7721
7821
Wood Marquetry
Cellular Wood Panels
6318
6349
6349
1
2
3
7911
7922
7933
Wd Simply Shaped NES 1
Wd Simply Shaped NES 2
Wd Simply Shaped NES 3
6421
6421
6421
1
2
3
9111
9121
9131
Paper Bags and Boxes
Paper Bags and Boxes
Paper Bags and Boxes
6422
6422
6422
1
2
3
9211
9221
9231
Envelopes/Letter Pads
Envelopes/Letter Pads
Envelopes/Letter Pads
6423
6423
6423
1
2
3
9311
9321
9331
Registers/Memo Blocks
Registers/Memo Blocks
Registers/Memo Blocks
6429
6428
6429
6424
6424
6419
1
2
3
2
3
3
9411
9422
9433
9521
9532
9631
Articles of Pap NES 1
Articles of Pap NES 2
Articles of Pap NES 3
Paper Cut to Size 1
Paper Cut to Size 2
Converted Paper NES
25
26
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
APPENDIX II
SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED FAO PRODUCT CODES AND
PRODUCT NAMES)
SITC
Product Code
2411
24501
24501
SITC
Revision
1
2
3
FAO
Product Code
1629
1629
1629
FAO
Product name
Fuelwood
Fuelwood
Fuelwood
2412
24502
24502
1
2
3
1630
1630
1630
Charcoal
Charcoal
Charcoal
2422
2471
2474
1
2
3
1601
1601
1651
IND-RWD-WIR (C)
IND-RWD-WIR (C)
IND-RWD-WIR (C)
2423
2472
2475
1
2
3
1604
1604
1867
IND-RWD-WIR (NC)
IND-RWD-WIR (NC)
IND-RWD-WIR (NC)
2421
24601
1
2
1614 Pulpwood Round and Split
1614 Pulpwood Round and Split
24602
2461
2
3
1619
1619
Chips and Parts
Chips and Parts
24603
2462
2
3
1620
1620
Wood Residues
Wood Residues
2424
2429
2473
2479
1
1
3
2
1871
1871
1871
1871
Other Ind Roundwood
Other Ind Roundwood
Other Ind Roundwood
Other Ind Roundwood
2431
2481
2481
1
2
3
1633
1633
1633
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
2432
2482
2482
2483
1
2
3
3
1632
1632
1632
1632
Sawnwood (C)
Sawnwood (C)
Sawnwood (C)
Sawnwood (C)
2433
2483
2484
2485
1
2
3
3
1633
1633
1633
1633
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
6311
6341
6341
1
2
3
1634
1634
1634
Veneer
Veneer
Veneer
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
SITC
Product Code
6312
6342
6343
63441
6344
SITC
Revision
1
2
3
2
3
FAO
Product Code
1640
1640
1640
1640
1640
FAO
Product name
Plywood
Plywood
Plywood
Plywood
Plywood
63142
63432
63422
63423
1
2
3
3
1646
1646
1646
1646
Particle Board
Particle Board
Particle Board
Particle Board
6416
64161
63451
63452
64162
63453
63459
1
2
3
3
2
3
3
3410
1649
1649
1649
1650
1650
1650
Fibreboard 1
Fibreboard Comp
Fibreboard Comp
Fibreboard Comp
Fibreboard non Comp
Fibreboard non Comp
Fibreboard non Comp
2512
2512
2512
1
2
3
1654
1654
1654
Mechanical Wood Pulp
Mechanical Wood Pulp
Mechanical Wood Pulp
2519
25191
25191
1
2
3
1655
1655
1655
Semi-Chemical
Semi-Chemical
Semi-Chemical
25171
25171
2514
1
2
3
1662
1662
1662
Unbleached Sulphate
Unbleached Sulphate
Unbleached Sulphate
25172
25172
2515
1
2
3
1663
1663
1663
Bleached Sulphate
Bleached Sulphate
Bleached Sulphate
25181
25181
25161
1
2
3
1660
1660
1660
Unbleached Sulphite
Unbleached Sulphite
Unbleached Sulphite
25182
25182
25162
1
2
3
1661
1661
1661
Bleached Sulphite
Bleached Sulphite
Bleached Sulphite
2516
2516
2513
1
2
3
1667
1667
1667
Dissolving
Dissolving
Dissolving
2515
25192
25192
1
2
3
1668
1668
1668
Other Fibre Pulp
Other Fibre Pulp
Other Fibre Pulp
2511
2511
2511
1
2
3
1669
1669
1669
Recovered Paper
Recovered Paper
Recovered Paper
27
28
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
SITC
Product Code
6411
6411
6411
SITC
Revision
1
2
3
FAO
Product Code
1671
1671
1671
FAO
Product name
Newsprint
Newsprint
Newsprint
6412
6412
6412
6413
1
2
3
3
1674
1674
1674
1674
Printing + Writing Pap
Printing + Writing Pap
Printing + Writing Pap
Printing + Writing Pap
6413
6413
6414
1
2
3
1675
1675
1675
Other Pap + Paperboard
Other Pap + Paperboard
Other Pap + Paperboard
6415
1
1675
Other Pap + Paperboard
6418
6417
2
3
1675
1675
Other Pap + Paperboard
Other Pap + Paperboard
6417
6416
2
3
1675
1675
Other Pap + Paperboard
Other Pap + Paperboard
6419
1
1675
Other Pap + Paperboard
6415
3
1675
Other Pap + Paperboard
6415
2
1675
Other Pap + Paperboard
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
29
APPENDIX III
SITC REV 1, REV 2 AND REV3 PRODUCTS (WITH ASSOCIATED FAO PRODUCT NAMES AND MT/CUM
CONVERSIONS)
SITC
Product Code
2411
24501
24501
SITC
Revision
MT/CUM conversion
(1000 MT)
1
1380
2
1380
3
1380
FAO
Product Name
Fuelwood
Fuelwood
Fuelwood
2412
24502
24502
1
2
3
1000
1000
1000
Charcoal
Charcoal
Charcoal
2422
2471
2474
1
2
3
1430
1430
1430
IND-RWD-WIR (C)
IND-RWD-WIR (C)
IND-RWD-WIR (C)
2423
2472
2475
1
2
3
1250 *
1250 *
1250 *
IND-RWD-WIR (NC)
IND-RWD-WIR (NC)
IND-RWD-WIR (NC)
* France = 1667
2421
24601
1
2
1480 Pulpwood Round and Split
1480 Pulpwood Round and Split
24602
2461
2
3
1480 **
1480 **
** Japan = 1925 ** USA = 1925
** Australia = 2250
Chips and Parts
Chips and Parts
24603
2462
2
3
1480
1480
Wood Residues
Wood Residues
2424
2429
2473
2479
1
1
3
2
1330
1330
1330
1330
Other Ind Roundwood
Other Ind Roundwood
Other Ind Roundwood
Other Ind Roundwood
2431
2481
2481
1
2
3
1280
1280
1280
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
2432
2482
2482
2483
1
2
3
3
1820
1820
1820
1820
Sawnwood (C)
Sawnwood (C)
Sawnwood (C)
Sawnwood (C)
2433
2483
2484
2485
1
2
3
3
1430
1430
1430
1430
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
Sawnwood (NC)
30
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
SITC
Product Code
6311
6341
6341
SITC
Revision
MT/CUM conversion
(1000 MT)
1
1330
2
1330
3
1330
FAO
Product Name
Veneer
Veneer
Veneer
6312
6342
6343
63441
6344
1
2
3
2
3
1540
1540
1540
1540
1540
Plywood
Plywood
Plywood
Plywood
Plywood
63142
63432
63422
63423
1
2
3
3
1540
1540
1540
1540
Particle Board
Particle Board
Particle Board
Particle Board
6416
64161
63451
63452
64162
63453
63459
1
2
3
3
2
3
3
2000
1053 ***
1000 ***
1500 ***
4000 ****
2500 ****
1250 ****
Fibreboard 1
*** Sweden = 1000 **** Sweden = 2850
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
APPENDIX IV
WORLD UNIT PRICE FOR CONIFEROUS SAWNWOOD
FAO
Product Code
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
Informal
Product Code
2211
2211
2211
2211
2211
2211
2211
2211
2211
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2221
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2231
2232
Import
Year $ / m3
or Export
Imports 1984
183
Imports 1985
189
Imports 1986
132
Imports 1987
155
Exports 1983
143
Exports 1984
129
Exports 1985
127
Exports 1986
102
Exports 1987
142
Imports 1983
150
Imports 1984
146
Imports 1985
138
Imports 1986
160
Imports 1987
190
Imports 1988
189
Imports 1989
211
Imports 1990
235
Imports 1991
197
Imports 1992
199
Imports 1993
228
Imports 1994
296
Exports 1983
127
Exports 1984
126
Exports 1985
118
Exports 1986
141
Exports 1987
169
Exports 1988
165
Exports 1989
91
Exports 1990
175
Exports 1991
191
Exports 1992
179
Exports 1993
150
Exports 1994
164
Imports 1988
209
Imports 1989
157
Imports 1990
183
Imports 1991
175
Imports 1992
170
Imports 1993
177
Imports 1994
197
Imports 1995
195
Exports 1988
136
Exports 1989
142
Exports 1990
157
Exports 1991
150
Exports 1992
159
Exports 1993
162
Exports 1994
177
Exports 1995
179
Imports 1988
495
31
32
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
FAO
Product Code
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
1632
Informal
Product Code
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
2232
Import
Year $ / m3
or Export
Imports 1989
457
Imports 1990
560
Imports 1991
493
Imports 1992
461
Imports 1993
416
Imports 1994
435
Imports 1995
523
Exports 1988
454
Exports 1989
483
Exports 1990
465
Exports 1991
553
Exports 1992
642
Exports 1993
602
Exports 1994
626
Exports 1995
641
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
33
APPENDIX V
A COMPLETE SET OF TABLES AND GRAPHS OF PROJECTIONS
Table 1. Sawnwood C. Total trade by major trading country 1983-1993
Table 2. Sawnwood C. % Trade by trading partners (Imports) 1983-93
Table 3. Sawnwood C. Quantity Trade by trading partners (Exports) 1983-93
Table 4. Sawnwood C. % Trade by trading partners (Imports) 1983-93
Table 5. Sawnwood C. Quantity Trade by trading partners (Exports) 1983-93
Figure 1. World coniferous sawnwood imports, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
Figure 2. World coniferous sawnwood exports, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
Figure 3. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Germany, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 4. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Italy, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 5. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Japan, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 6. Coniferous sawnwood imports / UK, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 7. Coniferous sawnwood imports / USA, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 8. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Canada, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 9. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Finland, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 10. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Sweden, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 11. Coniferous sawnwood exports / USA, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 12. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Area of former USSR, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
34
Table 1. Sawnwood C. Total trade by major trading country 1983-1993
1983
4007
3638
3750
7592
17340
18671
54998
1985
3225
3501
3879
6583
20564
18603
56356
1990
4589
4495
8622
8404
28643
22225
76978
1991
4504
4502
9057
6371
27696
21039
73169
1992
5150
4702
8425
6569
36021
20886
81753
1993
5382
4339
9896
6140
41284
20633
87675
1994
6127
4860
10111
7274
42559
23832
94763
1995
5215
4715
11164
5026
44931
24462
95513
1996
5742
4777
10702
6331
44212
23665
95430
2000
6094
5070
11359
6720
46926
25117
101286
Average
4418
4232
7199
7387
28071
20516
71823
Std Dev
848
476
2739
1278
10573
2132
15553
Exports, 1000 m3
Canada
Finland
Sweden
USA
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
World
1983
25591
6254
8259
4130
3923
12210
60368
1985
28884
6216
7668
3577
3678
11527
61551
1990
42593
4080
6236
7084
7841
14959
82793
1991
41190
3906
6596
7356
4035
13996
77080
1992
43173
4262
7950
7175
3240
14347
80147
1993
49095
6215
9640
6482
3763
15069
90263
1994
51370
8464
10060
5719
4943
18130
98686
1995
54332
6950
9828
5162
6240
17863
100375
1996
53147
7426
10138
5962
5131
17531
99335
2000
56408
7881
10760
6327
5446
18607
105430
Average
38157
5874
7856
5720
4691
14184
76482
Std Dev
10405
1285
1281
1483
1277
2085
14651
Imports, %
Germany
Italy
Japan
UK
USA
Balance
World
1983
7.3
6.6
6.8
13.8
31.5
33.9
100
1985
5.7
6.2
6.9
11.7
36.5
33.0
100
1990
6.0
5.8
11.2
10.9
37.2
28.9
100
1991
6.2
6.2
12.4
8.7
37.9
28.8
100
1992
6.3
5.8
10.3
8.0
44.1
25.5
100
1993
6.1
4.9
11.3
7.0
47.1
23.5
100
1994
6.5
5.1
10.7
7.7
44.9
25.1
100
1995
5.5
4.9
11.7
5.3
47.0
25.6
100
1996
6.0
5.0
11.2
6.6
46.3
24.8
100
2000
6.0
5.0
11.2
6.6
46.3
24.8
100
Average
6.2
6.0
9.7
10.9
37.9
29.3
Std Dev
0.5
0.7
2.1
3.3
6.6
3.7
Exports, %
Canada
Finland
Sweden
USA
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
World
1983
42.4
10.4
13.7
6.8
6.5
20.2
100
1985
46.9
10.1
12.5
5.8
6.0
18.7
100
1990
51.4
4.9
7.5
8.6
9.5
18.1
100
1991
53.4
5.1
8.6
9.5
5.2
18.2
100
1992
53.9
5.3
9.9
9.0
4.0
17.9
100
1993
54.4
6.9
10.7
7.2
4.2
16.7
100
1994
52.1
8.6
10.2
5.8
5.0
18.4
100
1995
54.1
6.9
9.8
5.1
6.2
17.8
100
1996
53.5
7.5
10.2
6.0
5.2
17.6
100
2000
53.5
7.5
10.2
6.0
5.2
17.6
100
Average
49.2
7.9
10.5
7.5
6.2
18.7
Std Dev
4.9
2.1
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.2
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
Imports, 1000 m3
Germany
Italy
Japan
UK
USA
Balance
World
3
Table 2. Sawnwood C. Trade by trading partners (imports) 1983-1993, %, totals in 1000 m
1985
12.5
14.7
3.9
29.4
13.2
26.3
3225
1990
13.6
12.8
9.5
25.5
12.7
25.9
4589
1991
11.1
14.7
9.4
28.7
13.2
22.9
4504
1992
9.4
14.3
13.2
29.0
11.2
22.9
5150
1993
8.6
15.1
14.5
28.9
13.2
19.7
5382
1994
10.0
16.1
12.9
26.4
12.6
22.1
6127
1995
6.3
16.3
12.5
20.5
19.6
24.9
5215
1996
8.3
15.9
13.4
25.1
15.1
22.2
5742
2000
7.9
16.2
13.7
24.2
15.5
22.5
6094
Average
11.8
15.2
7.9
26.7
14.2
24.2
4418
Std Dev
2.6
1.3
4.3
2.5
2.1
2.0
848
Italy / Imports, %
Austria
Germany
Sweden
USA
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
Italy
1983
59.9
2.3
9.4
7.3
9.6
11.6
3638
1985
59.6
2.9
6.9
6.0
12.3
12.3
3501
1990
61.0
3.1
5.4
5.6
9.7
15.3
4495
1991
59.0
5.6
5.1
5.7
10.0
14.7
4502
1992
58.1
7.1
5.5
4.5
9.3
15.5
4702
1993
56.8
7.9
6.5
3.4
9.2
16.2
4339
1994
58.2
10.0
6.1
2.3
6.9
16.6
4860
1995
55.9
9.9
6.2
2.2
7.5
18.3
4715
1996
56.7
9.4
6.3
2.6
7.8
17.1
4777
2000
55.7
10.1
6.4
2.5
7.7
17.5
5070
Average
58.7
4.8
6.5
5.4
10.2
14.4
4232
Std Dev
1.8
2.9
1.2
1.8
1.8
1.9
476
Japan / Imports, %
Canada
Chile
New Zealand
USA
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
Japan
1983
50
0.7
7.2
32.1
3.4
6.8
3750
1985
53
2.7
4.1
30.5
4.0
5.7
3750
1990
49
5.4
2.7
32.7
3.5
7.2
8622
1991
53
5.0
3.2
30.1
3.0
6.1
9057
1992
57
3.5
3.2
27.4
2.9
5.8
8425
1993
60
4.4
2.6
22.3
3.1
7.3
9896
1994
60
3.3
2.7
20.1
3.8
10.5
10111
1995
58
5.3
2.8
17.3
4.1
12.5
11164
1996
60
4.3
2.7
19.0
3.7
10.2
10702
2000
64
4.2
2.6
15.9
3.6
10.0
11359
Average
52
3.7
3.2
29.1
3.5
8.8
7207
Std Dev
5
1.4
1.5
5.7
0.4
2.5
2726
UK / Imports, %
Canada
Finland
Portugal
Sweden
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
UK
1983
20.4
14.3
7.8
28.3
16.5
12.6
7592
1985
15.4
13.7
12.1
28.5
16.2
14.1
6583
1990
40.4
10.1
10.0
14.6
14.0
10.8
8404
1991
38.6
10.7
8.1
19.9
13.3
9.4
6371
1992
33.7
12.7
7.0
25.4
10.6
10.7
6569
1993
11.9
19.6
4.1
42.4
13.4
8.6
6140
1994
8.6
20.0
3.9
36.7
20.6
10.1
7274
1995
11.9
12.4
5.6
30.7
26.0
13.4
5026
1996
9.4
17.9
4.3
38.3
19.7
10.3
6331
2000
5.3
18.0
3.8
43.4
20.0
9.6
6720
Average
24.9
13.5
8.6
25.9
15.5
11.6
7387
Std Dev
11.2
3.0
2.8
8.0
3.9
1.7
1278
USA / Imports, %
Canada
Chile
New Zealand
Free Zones
Free Zones
Balance
USA
1983
99.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
17340
1985
99.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
20564
1990
98.6
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
28643
1991
98.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
27696
1992
98.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.3
36021
1993
97.5
0.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
1.6
41284
1994
97.1
0.6
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.8
42559
1995
97.0
0.7
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.9
44931
1996
97.2
0.6
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.8
44212
2000
97.1
0.6
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.8
46926
Average
98.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
28071
Std Dev
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.5
10573
35
1983
15.1
14.9
2.0
28.3
13.6
26.1
4007
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and projection of forest products trade flows
Germany / Imports, %
Austria
Finland
Poland
Sweden
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
Germany
36
3
Table 3. Sawnwood C. Quantitity Trade by trading partners (exports) 1983-1993, in 1000 m
1983
4007
605
597
81
1133
545
1046
1985
3225
402
476
126
947
425
849
1990
4589
625
588
435
1170
582
1189
1991
4504
499
663
425
1291
593
1033
1992
5150
482
735
681
1491
579
1182
1993
5382
460
813
780
1556
709
1063
1994
6127
613
986
790
1618
769
1351
1995
5215
327
849
652
1068
1022
1297
1996
5742
475
914
768
1443
865
1277
2000
6094
482
988
837
1474
945
1368
Average
4418
508
671
378
1177
623
1060
Std Dev
848
90
143
266
240
147
156
Italy /Imports
Total
Austria
Germany
Sweden
USA
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
1983
3638
2179
82
342
264
348
423
1985
3501
2087
103
240
209
430
432
1990
4495
2743
138
241
250
435
688
1991
4502
2655
250
231
257
448
660
1992
4702
2733
333
259
211
436
730
1993
4339
2466
341
280
148
401
703
1994
4860
2829
485
295
111
336
805
1995
4715
2636
467
291
106
353
863
1996
4777
2711
451
299
125
373
819
2000
5070
2823
511
326
129
391
890
Average
4232
2483
210
273
222
428
616
Std Dev
476
284
148
33
62
59
141
Japan / Imports
Total
Canada
Chile
New Zealand
USA
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
1983
3750
1868
26
271
1203
129
253
1985
3750
1988
100
154
1144
152
212
1990
8622
4184
463
237
2818
302
619
1991
9057
4760
450
293
2726
273
556
1992
8425
4819
291
272
2310
245
489
1993
9896
5959
435
257
2210
311
725
1994
10111
6027
332
276
2033
383
1060
1995
11164
6466
587
318
1930
463
1400
1996
10702
6433
462
290
2034
395
1088
2000
11359
7230
477
299
1809
413
1131
Average
7207
3813
292
212
2003
252
636
Std Dev
2726
1730
172
75
643
100
320
UK / Imports
UK
Canada
Finland
Portugal
Sweden
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
1983
7592
1552
1089
594
2151
1252
954
1985
6583
1014
899
796
1878
1065
931
1990
8404
3391
852
841
1231
1180
909
1991
6371
2459
684
518
1265
845
599
1992
6569
2211
831
458
1669
698
702
1993
6140
728
1206
255
2603
821
528
1994
7274
626
1458
283
2669
1500
738
1995
5026
597
623
282
1543
1307
674
1996
6331
597
1131
272
2427
1250
653
2000
6720
354
1211
253
2915
1341
646
Average
7387
1914
991
647
1854
1126
855
Std Dev
1278
1034
227
261
444
227
191
USA / Imports
Total
Canada
Chile
New Zealand
Balance
1983
17340
17279
5
5
51
1985
20564
20385
75
3
100
1990
28643
28231
113
8
292
1991
27696
27273
72
10
341
1992
36021
35403
116
39
464
1993
41284
40260
232
134
658
1994
42559
41329
266
190
773
1995
44931
43595
304
199
833
1996
44212
42973
277
181
782
2000
46926
45581
300
196
849
Average Std Dev
28071
10573
27572
10163
114
94
47
75
338
271
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
Germany / Imports
Total
Austria
Finland
Poland
Sweden
Area of Fmr USSR
Balance
3
Table 4. Sawnwood C. Trade by trading partners (exports) 1983-1993, totals in 1000 m
1985
1.7
0.5
8.6
2.5
83.3
3.5
28884
1990
0.7
1.0
10.6
7.4
75.3
5.0
42593
1991
0.5
0.7
12.7
6.0
75.0
5.2
41190
1992
0.5
0.2
12.0
4.7
78.5
4.1
43173
1993
0.5
0.1
12.7
1.3
81.8
3.6
49095
1994
0.5
0.1
12.2
1.2
83.5
2.5
51370
1995
0.4
0.1
12.4
1.0
83.5
2.6
54332
1996
0.5
0.1
12.2
1.1
83.3
2.8
53147
2000
0.4
0.1
11.5
1.0
84.4
2.6
56408
Average
1.0
0.5
10.7
4.4
79.2
4.2
38157
Std Dev
0.5
0.3
2.0
2.3
3.3
1.5
10405
1983
6.9
9.6
13.4
9.0
22.2
38.9
6254
1985
12.0
9.1
10.9
8.9
17.5
41.7
6216
1990
6.8
11.3
15.5
11.2
20.0
35.2
4080
1991
7.4
10.9
16.9
11.9
16.0
36.9
3906
1992
8.7
10.2
16.3
12.1
17.7
35.1
4262
1993
7.1
9.1
15.1
11.8
18.9
38.0
6215
1994
4.0
9.6
16.9
11.9
20.4
37.3
8464
1995
11.3
8.8
13.5
10.6
16.4
39.2
6950
1996
7.3
9.1
15.3
11.4
18.8
38.1
7426
2000
7.3
9.0
15.1
11.4
19.0
38.2
7881
Average
7.5
10.4
14.4
10.2
20.1
37.4
5874
Std Dev
2.6
1.2
1.9
1.4
2.9
2.7
1285
Sweden / Exports, %
Denmark
Egypt
Germany
Netherlands
UK
Balance
Sweden
1983
9.4
7.4
14.2
9.7
25.1
34.1
8259
1985
10.5
10.2
12.6
9.8
23.9
33.0
7668
1990
11.3
6.2
18.3
9.3
19.2
35.7
6236
1991
11.4
9.9
19.5
8.8
19.2
31.1
6596
1992
11.7
7.0
18.1
9.8
21.4
32.1
7950
1993
10.0
7.2
15.7
8.7
27.3
31.0
9640
1994
12.1
4.3
16.1
8.9
26.1
32.6
10060
1995
11.0
7.6
16.0
8.7
23.9
32.9
9828
1996
11.0
6.3
15.7
8.7
26.2
32.1
10138
2000
10.8
6.1
15.0
8.6
27.8
31.6
10760
Average
11.1
7.6
15.5
9.3
23.8
32.8
7856
Std Dev
0.9
1.5
2.2
0.4
2.5
1.3
1281
USA / Exports, %
Australia
Canada
Italy
Japan
Spain
Balance
USA
1983
8.1
23.6
6.9
34.4
1.8
25.2
4130
1985
11.3
17.8
5.6
39.2
1.8
24.3
3577
1990
5.7
15.8
4.1
38.4
3.1
32.9
7084
1991
5.9
13.6
4.0
34.9
3.1
38.6
7356
1992
4.2
13.7
3.9
37.7
3.5
37.0
7175
1993
4.7
13.6
3.1
44.2
2.5
31.9
6482
1994
3.0
15.3
2.4
43.5
3.0
32.8
5719
1995
4.7
17.5
2.7
43.9
3.2
28.0
5162
1996
4.1
15.2
2.7
44.6
2.9
30.5
5962
2000
3.9
15.0
2.6
47.1
2.8
28.7
6327
Average
6.9
16.7
4.4
40.0
2.8
29.2
5720
Std Dev
2.7
2.9
1.3
3.9
0.6
5.1
1483
Area of Fmr USSR / Exports, %
Egypt
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
UK
Balance
Area of Fmr USSR
1983
6.3
13.9
8.9
6.7
31.9
32.3
3923
1985
9.4
11.6
11.7
4.7
28.9
33.6
3678
1990
6.7
15.6
7.7
5.8
17.1
47.2
7841
1991
2.8
14.7
11.1
8.6
20.9
41.8
4035
1992
0.8
17.9
13.5
7.0
21.5
39.3
3240
1993
0.0
18.9
10.7
7.5
21.8
41.2
3763
1994
11.4
13.6
6.8
5.3
27.3
35.5
4943
1995
11.6
16.2
5.7
5.4
21.7
39.4
6240
1996
8.7
16.0
7.2
5.8
23.9
38.3
5131
2000
9.1
15.9
6.9
5.7
25.1
37.2
5446
Average
5.5
14.2
9.8
6.8
24.7
39.0
4691
Std Dev
3.8
2.4
2.2
1.3
4.2
4.7
1277
37
Finland / Exports, %
Egypt
France
Germany
Netherlands
UK
Balance
Finland
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and projection of forest products trade flows
Canada / Exports, % 1983
Australia
1.1
France
0.8
Japan
8.5
UK
4.5
USA 77.4
Balance
7.7
Canada 25591
3
Table 5. Sawnwood C. Quantity Trade by trading partners (Exports) 1983-1993, 1000 m
Canada / Exports
1983
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
2000
Average
Std Dev
Total
25591
28884
42593
41190
43173
49095
51370
54332
53147
56408
38157
10405
Australia
283
486
307
226
222
256
260
209
244
241
324
93
France
207
131
445
270
86
41
42
37
40
40
184
119
Japan
2184
2480
4513
5213
5170
6228
6257
6763
6503
6495
4189
1639
UK
1150
717
3163
2470
2021
641
609
557
599
554
1601
953
USA
19806
24062
32054
30880
33906
40152
42916
45343
44251
47598
30335
8896
Balance
1962
1009
2110
2131
1768
1778
1284
1423
1509
1480
1523
432
Finland / Exports
1983
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
2000
Average
Std Dev
Total
6254
6216
4080
3906
4262
6215
8464
6950
7426
7881
5874
1285
Egypt
432
744
279
289
371
443
341
789
540
572
435
178
France
599
563
462
427
434
563
809
613
679
707
607
125
Germany
840
678
632
661
694
940
1430
941
1135
1194
844
220
Netherlands
563
553
456
464
515
735
1003
737
850
902
595
154
UK
1388
1087
816
626
753
1174
1726
1143
1393
1499
1188
334
Balance
2433
2592
1434
1439
1495
2359
3154
2727
2830
3009
2206
543
Sweden / Exports
1983
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
2000
Average
Std Dev
Sweden
8259
7668
6236
6596
7950
9640
10060
9828
10138
10760
7856
1281
Denmark
778
808
708
754
927
965
1219
1078
1116
1165
870
155
Egypt
614
781
389
653
555
698
431
742
638
658
591
117
Germany
1171
965
1139
1285
1439
1515
1616
1568
1595
1615
1213
246
Netherlands
800
749
579
581
779
841
894
856
885
923
729
106
UK
2077
1834
1195
1270
1698
2630
2621
2351
2653
2996
1883
448
Balance
2820
2531
2225
2053
2551
2991
3279
3232
3251
3403
2571
404
USA / Exports
1983
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
2000
Average
Std Dev
USA
4130
3577
7084
7356
7175
6482
5719
5162
5962
6327
5720
1483
Australia
336
405
405
434
299
303
172
244
244
247
374
111
Canada
974
638
1121
1000
985
882
876
902
909
947
921
143
Italy
284
199
287
293
283
199
138
138
161
163
239
58
Japan
1419
1403
2718
2564
2704
2866
2486
2268
2656
2981
2296
635
Spain
75
65
223
227
249
161
172
167
170
174
165
70
Balance
1042
868
2330
2840
2656
2070
1874
1444
1821
1814
1725
687
Area of Fmr USSR / Exports
1983
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
2000
Average
Std Dev
Area of Fmr USSR
3923
3678
7841
4035
3240
3763
4943
6240
5131
5446
4691
1277
Egypt
249
347
524
114
26
0
565
725
448
498
274
217
Germany
545
425
1220
593
579
709
672
1012
821
866
664
217
Italy
348
430
602
448
436
401
335
357
371
378
441
76
Netherlands
264
173
456
346
228
281
263
334
300
312
315
85
UK
1252
1065
1340
845
698
821
1351
1353
1226
1367
1130
221
Balance
1266
1237
3699
1687
1273
1550
1757
2460
1965
2025
1867
713
Figure 1. World coniferous sawnwood imports, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
Figure 2. World coniferous sawnwood exports, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
40
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
Figure 3. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Germany, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
Figure 4. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Italy, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
Figure 5. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Japan, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
Figure 6. Coniferous sawnwood imports / UK, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
41
42
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
Figure 7. Coniferous sawnwood imports / USA, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
Figure 8. Coniferous sawnwood imports / Canada, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
UNSTAT trade data as basis for analysis and Projection of forest products trade flows
Figure 9. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Finland, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
Figure 10. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Sweden, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000.
43
44
Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle
Figure 11. Coniferous sawnwood exports / USA, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000
Figure 12. Coniferous sawnwood exports / Area of former USSR, in % and mill. m3 in 1983-2000