Download WRAP 2014-18 Integrated Work Plan

Intermountain
West Data
Warehouse –
Western Air
Quality Study
(IWDW-WAQS)
A Web System Application Framework for use of
Remote Sensing Obs in Air Quality Planning
Tom Moore
WESTAR-WRAP
[email protected]
NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
(nps.gov)
(FED)
Partners: NPS/ARD
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse
(IWDW)
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA,
CO, WY, UT, NM
Partners: NPS, USFS
Databases
Websites
Hardware
Software
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
(SEMAP)
Partners: EPA, AL, FL, GA, KY, MS,
NC, SC, TN
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Relational database:
NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
(nps.gov)
Databases
Partners: NPS
• Schema design
• Data import & update
• Administration
Database
• Query design
•
•
•
•
800,000,000 records
62 air quality networks
63 water quality networks
24 modeling and satellite datasets
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
Partners: NPS, USFS
File server:
Website
• ~107 Terabytes of online data
• ~100 Terabytes of offline data
• ~85 Terabytes downloaded/transferred
• 7 complete modeling platforms
Hardware
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY,
UT, NM
Software
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
(SEMAP)
Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN
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NPS Air Quality
Conditions
& Trends Tools
Websites:
(nps.gov)
•
•
Partners: NPS•
•
•
•
FED
SEMAP
IWDW
NPSCAT
TSS
IMPROVE
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
Websites
• Website design
• Web hosting
• Tool development
• Web services
Databases
Website
Hardware
Software
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY,
UT, NM
Partners: NPS, USFS
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
(SEMAP)
Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN
4
NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
(nps.gov)
Partners: NPS, USFS
Partners: NPS
Databases
Websites
Hardware
Software
Software
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY,
UT, NM
• Data access libraries
Southeastern
• Data manipulation
Modeling, Analysis, and
• Visualization tools
Planning
• Data analysis
(SEMAP)
Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN
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NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
(nps.gov)
Partners: NPS, USFS
Partners: NPS
Databases
Websites
Hardware
Hardware
Software
• Server configuration
• Server maintenance
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse• Networking
• Troubleshooting & repair
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY,
UT, NM
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
(SEMAP)
Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN
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NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
(nps.gov)
(FED)
Partners: NPS
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse
(IWDW)
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA,
CO, WY, UT, NM
Partners: NPS, USFS
Databases
Websites
Hardware
Software
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
(SEMAP)
Partners: EPA, AL, FL, GA, KY, MS,
NC, SC, TN
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NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
(nps.gov)
(FED)
Partners: NPS
Partners: NPS, USFS
Database
Websites
Hardware
Software
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY,
UT, NM
http://views.cira.colostate.edu/fed
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
(SEMAP)
Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN
9
NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
(nps.gov)
Partners: NPS, USFS
Partners: NPS
Database
Website
Hardware
Software
Intermountain
West
http://views.cira.colostate.edu/semap
Data Warehouse
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
(SEMAP)
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY,
UT, NM
Partners: EPA, AL, FL, GA, KY, MS,
NC, SC, TN
10
NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
(nps.gov)
Partners: NPS, USFS
Partners: NPS
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse
(IWDW)
Database
Website
Hardware
Software
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
http://views.cira.colostate.edu/iwdw
(SEMAP)
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA,
CO, WY, UT, NM
Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN
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IWDW-WAQS nested 36/12/4-km WRF/CAMx and CMAQ domains
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NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
(nps.gov)
Partners: NPS, USFS
Partners: NPS/ARD
Database
Website
Hardware
Software
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY,
UT, NM
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
(SEMAP)
Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN
http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/data/products/parks/index.cfm
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NPS Air Quality
Conditions & Trends Tools
Federal Land Manager
Environmental Database
(nps.gov)
(FED)
Partners: NPS/ARD
Intermountain West
Data Warehouse
(IWDW)
Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA,
CO, WY, UT, NM
Partners: NPS, USFS
Databases
Websites
Hardware
Software
Southeastern
Modeling, Analysis, and
Planning
(SEMAP)
Partners: EPA, AL, FL, GA, KY, MS,
NC, SC, TN
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NASA ROSES 2007:
Decision Support through Earth Science Research Results
Improving an Air Quality Decision Support System through the
Integration of Satellite Data
with Ground-based, Modeled, and Emissions Data
Uma Shankar (UNC) and Shawn McClure (CIRA/CSU) - co-PIs
Many collaborators, including Bret Schichtel (NPS) & Tom Moore (WESTAR-WRAP) at CIRA
Completed May 2011
Simplified, CIRA-specific project goal
Make it easier to…
• find
• visualize
• query
• download
…satellite and modeled data in conjunction with ground-based
data
Fulfilling our goal: Getting the data – circa 2011
Fulfilling our goal: Getting the data – going forward
Fulfilling our goal: Getting the data – into the future
Other, Emerging Remote
Sensing Platforms
Fulfilling our goal: Importing and integrating the data
VIEWS/TSS (now IWDW) Interoperability: Services and standards
“Interoperability”: The ability of diverse systems and organizations to work
together to exchange and utilize information.
To facilitate, VIEWS and now IWDW offers the following services and features:
• Discovery, retrieval, and exchange of data and metadata
• On-the-fly transformation and formatting of data and metadata
• Upload and management of user-supplied data and metadata
• Generation of visualization and analysis products
• Availability of “embeddable” components and tools
• Support of OGC web standards for spatial data exchange
NAAQS Implementation and Maintenance
Data for future infrastructure and transport SIPs
Exceptional Events
Develop technical support data and analysis
protocols
Implementation of Regional Haze SIPs
Identify and execute technical work needed for
201821 plans
WRAP Board
of Directors
Technical
Steering
Committee
Needs of sub-regional groups of states
Currently oil and gas, fire
Similar efforts in past – dust, BART, other topics
WRAP Staff
Work Groups
Project Teams
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Modeling of U.S. Background /
Boundary Conditions:
MOZART
GEOS-Chem
(AM3, others)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Observations vs. Boundary Condition /
Background Monthly Mean MDA8 Ozone
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Animations of Modeled Daily Max
Concentrations
Background contribution
Difference plots for background minus
U.S. sources
O3, NOx, CO, PM2.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Data Warehouse and Modeling Center
http://views.cira.colostate.edu/tsdw/
Several other modeling efforts
boundary/background by others
Animations of Daily Max Concentrations Ozone , SO4, and Dust Boundary Tracers
Boundary conditions plots:
O3, Ox (O3+NO+NO2+PAN)
Coarse Dust (CCRS), Fine PM (FPRM+FCRS)
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next WAQS base & projection years’ modeling platform
Immediate future - Modeling Platform Development Elements
2014 base case emissions, met domain expansion
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2014 NEIv1 and “best available” quasi-natural emissions
O&G comprehensive update north-south from AZ-NM to MT-ND basins
Met modeling at 4km for same north-south area and east-west KS-CO to UT-NV
2014 Global Models’ evaluation and assessment
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Use as CONUS regional model boundary conditions
PM, Ozone, other species
Develop and document evaluation methods
2014 base case air quality modeling /evaluation
• Apply criteria used in earlier IWDW-WAQS evaluations
• Transfer files to IWDW, completeness and error check by re-run
• Option for 2015/16 years – lighter base year modeling effort on inputs / evaluation
Future projection years
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Anthropogenic emissions – 2023, 2028, other?
Quasi-natural emissions – scenarios for biogenics, fire, ammonia, et cetera
Option for modified future met based on climate change scenarios
Future years’ air quality modeling runs
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Evaluate with MATS and pending Regional Haze reasonable progress goals
Serve as “No-Action” alternatives as inputs to NEPA studies
Background O3 Scientific Assessment
Denver, March 28-29, 2017 Workshop
High ozone day in southern California
High ozone day in Gothic, Colorado
Photo of LA smog from citiesspeak.org
High ozone day in western U.S.
Sources of O3 in the Western U.S.
O3 Source
Meteorological
Characteristics
Chemical characteristics
CAA
Controllable
Local
photochemical
buildup
Stagnation, high temperatures.
CO/NOx/VOCs/PM consistent with
local sources
Y
Regional transport from major
source regions (e.g., California)
- currently not well
characterized
CO/NOy/VOCs consistent with
upwind sources + chemistry
Y
Upper trop/Lower
strat intrusions
(UTLS)
Post-cold front
Broad spatial distribution
(high O3 in non-urban areas)
Very dry air.
N
Very long-range
transport (VLRT)
Important at higher elevation.
Subsidence and mixing into the
boundary layer can enhance
local concentrations.
Dry.
Can be hard to distinguish from
UTLS without good chemical data.
N
Warm.
Can be stagnant or not. Can
be regional or large distant
fires.
Chemistry complex & different from
typical urban.
O3 enhancements not always seen.
O3-PM often poorly correlated.
PM/CO/NOy always well correlated
and ratios very different from
typical urban.
N
Regional transport
(domestic sources)
Wildfire smoke
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Definitions
• U.S. background O3 (USBO): O3 formed from all natural sources plus
anthropogenic sources in countries outside the U.S., plus methane impacts.
• North American Background (NAB) is defined as O3 formed from all natural
sources plus anthropogenic sources in countries outside North America, plus
methane impacts.
• USB and NAB must be determined using chemical transport models or source
apportionment.
• Baseline O3: O3 measured at relatively remote sites that have little or no recent
influence from US domestic emissions.
• Non-Controllable O3 sources (NCOS): These are sources of O3, or its
precursors, that could not be reasonably controlled by domestic legislation.
Examples of NCOS are intrusions of stratospheric air or emissions from
wildfires.
• All of the terms above can be expressed as seasonal, monthly or daily means,
maximum daily 8-hour averages (MDA8) or using other statistical metrics.28
BOSA Core Team
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Prof. Dan Jaffe (University of Washington)
Dr. Owen Cooper (University of Colorado / NOAA ESRL)
Prof. Arlene Fiore (Columbia University)
Dr. Barron Henderson (EPA OAQPS)
Prof. Daven Henze (University of Colorado)
Dr. Andrew Langford (NOAA-ESRL)
Dr. Meiyun Lin (Princeton University / NOAA GFDL)
Dr. Gail Tonnesen (EPA Region 8)
Prof. Ted Russell (Georgia Institute of Technology)
Mr. Tom Moore (WESTAR-WRAP)
Our goal is submission of critical review paper to EST or other
journal by end of Summer 2017.
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Goals for the Denver Workshop
• Provide a forum for broader input to the assessment from all
knowledgeable experts;
• Provide a forum for discussion of key uncertainties;
• Identify new methods and tools that the core group might not
be aware of;
• Identify specific scientific publications that we may have
missed;
• Make specific recommendations for future research that the
committee should consider.
• Approximately 150 participants (~50% in-person/~50%
online)
• 18 oral presentations + handful of posters
• Extensive time for discussion.
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Area Burned for U.S. Wildfires (NIFC)
The last decade has seen a significant increase in the area burned.
Approximately 70% of these fires are in the Western U.S.
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Western Class 1 area Environment
PRELIMINARY DESIGN
VALUE by COUNTY*
(using AQS data 2013-2015)
> PM 2.5 2012 Standard
> Ozone 2015 Standard
> Both PM 2.5 and
Ozone Standards
Class 1 area
Alaska and Hawaii at reduced scale
* Based on monitor with
highest value in county
Western region characterized by complex terrain, several climactic zones, oceanic and international
source transport, dispersed population centers, large land mass, mix of nonattainment areas, unique
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geologic sources
Acknowledgements
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State and federal cooperators – IWDW-WAQS
Gail Tonnesen and Rebecca Matichuk, EPA R8
Shawn McClure & Rodger Ames, CIRA
Ralph Morris and colleagues, Ramboll-Environ
Zac Adelman and colleagues, UNC
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